Menoufia University – Faculty of Electronic Engineering

Network Planning Module - 2024

Sheet 1
1) The number of subscriber lines put in service in a certain area during the interval from
2016 to 2021 was registered in the following table.
Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Number of lines x 103 100 104 108 111 111 114
Calculate the expected number of lines required to be connected in the year 2034.
Solution 1
The percentage of increase % will be:
(104-100) / 100 = 0.04
(108-014) / 104 = 0.038
(111-108) / 108 = 0.028
The annual growth is not equal, so the linear model will be used. 𝑴 = 𝑴𝒐 + 𝑲 𝒕

Year 𝒕𝒊 𝑴𝒊 𝒕𝒊 𝑴𝒊 𝒕𝒊 𝟐
2016 1 100 100 1
2017 2 104 208 4
2018 3 108 324 9
2019 4 111 444 16
2020 5 111 555 25
2021 6 114 684 36
6

∑. . 21 648 2315 91
𝑖=1
From the table:

(∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 2 )(∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑀𝑖 ) − (∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 )(∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 𝑀𝑖 )

𝑀𝑜 =
𝑛 (∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 2 ) − (∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 )2
(91)(648) − (21)(2315)
𝑀𝑜 = = 98.6
6(91) − (21)2

𝑛 (∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 𝑀𝑖 ) − (∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 )(∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑀𝑖 )

𝐾=
𝑛 (∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 2 ) − (∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 )2
(6)(2315) − (21)(648)
𝐾= = 2.69
6(91) − (21)2
The approximated line will be: 𝑴 = 𝑴𝒐 + 𝑲 𝒕 = 𝟗𝟖. 𝟔 + 𝟐. 𝟔𝟗 𝒕
Year 2034 gives t = 19 → (2034-2016) +1

∴ 𝑀 = 98.6 + 2.69 (19) = 149.71 ≈ 150 𝑥 103 Lines

1|Pa ge
Menoufia University – Faculty of Electronic Engineering
Network Planning Module - 2024

2) Calculate the period of time during which the communication demands will be equal to
double its value now if the subscriber annual growth is 0.05.
Solution 2
The annual growth is constant, then the exponential model is more suitable in this case
1
with 𝑡 = 0.05, 𝑀 = 2 𝑀𝑜 , 𝑡 = ?
1

∵ 𝑀 = 𝑀𝑜 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (𝑡/𝑡1 )
∴ 2𝑀𝑜 = 𝑀𝑜 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (0.05 𝑡)
∴ 𝑙𝑖𝑛(2) = 0.05 𝑡 → 𝑡 = 20 𝑙𝑖𝑛(2) = 13.86 ≈ 14 years

3) Calculate the expected number of terminals that will be required to be connected in the
LAN after 5 years, if the number of served users now is 1000 subscribers and the annual
growth rate is 0.05.
Solution 3
The annual growth is constant, then the exponential model is more suitable in this case
1
with 𝑡 = 0.05, 𝑀𝑜 = 1000, 𝑡 = 5, 𝑀 = ?
1

∵ 𝑀 = 𝑀𝑜 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (𝑡/𝑡1 )
∴ 𝑀 = 1000 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (0.05 𝑥 5) = 1000 𝑒𝑥𝑝(0.25) ≈ 1284 Lines

4) Calculate the capacity of the 1st stage of an exchange required to be working over 20
years to reach its maximum capacity of 25000 subscribers. The expansion would be
provided each quarter of its lifetime as 35 % growth rate.
Solution 4
The annual growth is constant, then the exponential model is more suitable in this case,
𝑀 = 25000, 𝑡 = 20, 𝑀𝑜 = ?

∵ One quarter = 20/4 = 5 years

∴ The growth rate per year (annual growth) = 0.35/5 = 0.07
∴ 25000 = 𝑀𝑜 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (0.07 𝑥 20) = 𝑀𝑜 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (1.4)
∴ 𝑀𝑜 = 25000 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (−1.4) = 6164.92 ≈ 6165 Lines

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Menoufia University – Faculty of Electronic Engineering
Network Planning Module - 2024

5) (Report) A local Exchange with capacity 8000 lines, one year ago the initial number of
lines put in service in this Exchange was 500, and now there are 2000 line in service,
provided that Exchange expansion follows Logistic function. How many lines will be in
service three years from now.

6) (Report) The number of subscriber lines put in services in a certain exchange area over
the period from 2013-to-2019 was registered in the following table.
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Number of lines x 104
583 615 646 697 738 802 844
Compare two different forecasting models (Linear & Exponential) to predict the lines
required to be connected 10 years ahead.

Best Wishes of Success

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