4.0 PRECIPITATION (K.R.

Arora, 2002)

4.1 Introduction

Precipitation is the fall of water in various forms on the earth surface from the clouds. The usual
forms of precipitation are rain and snow, although it may also occur in the form of sleet, glaze, hail,
dew and frost. In countries like South Africa, rainfall is the most dominant form of precipitation. That
is the reason why the terms precipitation and rainfall are used synonymously. The following are the
details of the form of precipitation that occur.

Rain: Most of the precipitation in South Africa is in the form of rain. In rain, the precipitation occurs
in the form of large water drops, with diameter larger than 0·5 mm, but less than 6mm.

Snow: Snow is the precipitation in the form of solid ice crystals. These crystals usually carry a thin
coating of liquid water and form large flakes when they collide with one another. However, at very
low temperature, these crystals are dry and do not form large flakes.

Drizzle: In drizzle, the precipitation occurs in the form of fine sprinkle of very small drops. The
diameters of the drops is uniform and it varies from 0·1 to 0·5 mm. The water drops are in very large
numbers and seem to float in air. The intensity is usually less than 1 mm/hour.

Hail: The precipitation in the form of balls or irregular lumps of ice of diameter 5 mm or more is
called hail. The grains of soft hail are round and opaque. Soft hail disintegrates when it strikes the
hard ground surface. Hail usually occurs in violent thunderstorms.

Glaze: Glaze is a form of precipitation which falls as rain and freezes when striking the ground. It
occurs when there is a cold layer of air with a temperature below zero degree Celsius. When the
objects such as trees and power lines on which precipitation occurs are very cold, glaze occurs on
them. Glaze is also known as freezing rain.

Sleet: Sleet is the precipitation in the form of melting snow. It is a mixture of snow and rain. It
consists of transparent, solid grains of ice formed by freezing of rain drops. These pellets are
generally between 1mm and 4mm in diameter. Sleet is also known as small hail. Sometimes,
precipitation begins as snow in the upper layers of atmosphere, turns into sleet in the middle layer
and reaches the earth as rain.

Frost: Frost is a form of precipitation which occurs in the form of scales, needles, feathers or fans. It
is a type of dew in which the water vapour in the air is transformed directly into the ice crystals
when it falls on the earth.

Dew: Dew is a form of precipitation which does not occur because of condensation in higher layer of
atmosphere, but it is formed by condensation directly on the ground. Dew occurs in the night when
the ground surface is cooled by outgoing radiation. Although the quantity of water in dew is quite
small, it is extremely useful for the growth of plants and crops in arid regions.

4.2 Conditions for occurrence of precipitation

Moisture is the form of vapour which is always present in the atmosphere, although it may not be
visible on a cloudless day. Precipitation may occur only when there is some mechanism to cool the

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 atmospheric air to bring it to saturation. Even saturation of air does not necessarily lead to
precipitation. Precipitation occurs when the following four conditions are satisfied.

a) Cooling of air masses

Cooling occurs when air ascends from the earth surface to the upper levels in the
atmosphere. The decrease in temperature of the undisturbed atmospheric air with an
increase in altitude is called lapse rate. The lapse rate is about 6.5°C per km increase in
altitude within the troposphere. However, the temperature remains more or less constant in
the lower part of stratosphere. The precipitation depends upon the rate and amount of
cooling.

b) Formation of clouds due to condensation

Condensation occurs when the water vapour in the atmosphere is converted into liquid
droplets or into ice crystals when the temperature is quite low. Clouds are formed due to
condensation. The clouds are nothing but liquid water droplets (or the ice crystals) floating
in the air. Water droplets in a cloud are somewhat analogous to the solid particles in a
colloidal suspension. It is worth noting that saturation of water vapour does not necessarily
result in condensation and formation of clouds. Small solid particles, called condensation
nuclei or the hygroscopic nuclei, are essential for the conversion of water vapours into water
droplets. Fortunately, condensation nuclei, which are of the size 0·001 µm to 10 µm, are
usually present in the atmosphere due to combustion of solids and due to salt particles from
the sea. However, the number of nuclei per cm3 varies between a few to several millions in
different regions of the atmosphere. The rate of condensation increases as the number of
nuclei increases. In general, there are usually sufficient condensation nuclei in the air to
cause condensation as soon as the saturation occurs.

c) Growth of water droplets

The size of water droplets in a cloud is usually very small. It is about 0·02 mm in diameter.
The weight of these droplets is so small that even an upward air current of as low as 2·5
mm/s will not allow them to fall on the ground. It is therefore necessary that the size of
these droplets must increase before the precipitation can occur. Coalescence of droplets
occurs to form larger rain drops which are large enough to overcome air resistance when
falling. The coalescence takes place due to difference of velocity of the larger droplets and
small droplets, and due to coexistence of ice crystals and water droplets in clouds.

d) Accumulation of moisture
The air must contain sufficient amount of moisture so that appreciable precipitation can
occur after meeting the evaporation losses between the clouds and the ground.
Accumulation of moisture in atmosphere occurs due to evaporation from land, vegetation
and water surfaces.

4.3 Types of precipitation

Depending upon the factors responsible for lifting and cooling of air, there are five types of
precipitation, namely, Convective precipitation, Orographic precipitation, Cyclonic precipitation,
Frontal precipitation, and Precipitation due to turbulent ascent.

a) Convective precipitation
Convective precipitation occurs due to heating of air. The air close to the earth surface gets
heated, and its density decreases. Consequently, the air rises upward in the atmosphere and
it gets cooled adiabatically to form clouds. Precipitation caused by such clouds is called

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 convective precipitation. Convective precipitation is usually of very short duration. It occurs
in the form of local whirling thunder storms and is typical of the tropical regions. It is called
tornado when accompanied by high velocity, destructive winds. Convective precipitation
covers a small area, usually less than 50 km2. The rainfall intensity (i.e. rainfall per unit time)
may be very high; sometimes it may even reach 100 mm/hour.

b) Orographic precipitation
Orographic precipitation occurs due to lifting of moist air over mountains. It results in
cooling. condensation and precipitation. Heavy precipitation occurs on the windward side of
the mountain, whereas on the leeward side, there is very little precipitation (Fig. 4.1).

Fig. 4.1

c) Cyclonic precipitation
A cyclone is a large zone of low pressure which is surrounded by circular wind motion. Air
tends to move into the low pressure zone from surrounding areas and displaces low-
pressure air upwards. The winds blow spirally inward counter-clockwise in the northern
hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. Cyclonic precipitation occurs due to
displacement of air in the upward direction. The normal extent of a cyclone is about 100 to
200 km in diameter. The centre of the storm, called the eye, which may extend up to about
10 to 50 km, is relatively quite; but outside the eye, very strong winds blow with a speed as
high as 200 km/hr. The rainfall is usually quite heavy in the entire area occupied by the
cyclone.

d) Frontal precipitation
The term frontal precipitation/rainfall is derived from the fact that it occurs when two
masses of air, one warm and the other cold, meet. This causes a front. When the mass of
warm air meets the mass of cold air, the warm air, which is lighter and less dense than the
cold air, rises above the denser and heavier cold air mass. When the warm air is pushed
upwards it cools. When air goes above the point of dew formation and is no longer able to
hold all its water within, it begins to condense and form clouds. This leads to precipitation.
This rain falls over a wide area. Frontal precipitation is a type of cyclonic precipitation. A
frontal surface (or a front) is a surface which separates a warm air mass and a cold air mass.

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 A front is called a warm front when warm air displaces cold air. It is called a cold front when
cold air displaces warm air.

Fig. 4.2

Non-frontal precipitation occurs when a low pressure zone develops in a region. Air from an
adjacent high pressure region flows into the low pressure zone and it causes the lifting of
the air of the low pressure zone to higher altitudes. Consequently, precipitation occurs due
to cooling and condensation. In non-frontal precipitation, there are no fronts. The cyclonic
precipitation discussed above is the non-frontal precipitation.

e) Precipitation Due to Turbulent Ascent

This type of precipitation occurs when an air mass is forced to rise up due to friction of the
earth surface. The friction of the earth surface is greater than that of the water surface. The
air mass, after its travel over ocean, rises up because of increased turbulence and friction.
Precipitation occurs after cooling and condensation.

In nature, the various methods of cooling get intermixed and hence the resulting
precipitation cannot be identified as being of anyone particular type.

4.4 Measurement of Rainfall

Rainfall is the main source of water used for various purposes. A knowledge of the amount of
rainfall, the intensity of rainfall, and the distribution of rainfall is extremely useful for the Civil
Engineers and all others involved in the development of the water resources. The amount of rainfall
is expressed as the depth of water in centimetres (or millimetres) which would accumulate on a level
surface if the rainfall were retained where it fell. The intensity of rainfall is the depth of rainfall per
unit time. It is usually expressed in cm/hour or mm/hour. Rainfall at a place can be measured by a
rain gauge or RADAR.

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 a) Rain gauge
The rain gauge may be broadly classified into two types.

Non-recording type: The non-recording type rain gauges are used for the measurement of
the amount of rainfall by collecting rain water over a period of time. In a recording-type rain
gauge, the amount and intensity of rainfall are recorded by an automatic arrangement.

Recording type: The recording-type rain gauges have recording arrangement which gives
the rainfall intensity and duration of the rainfall, besides giving the total depth of the
rainfall. These rain gauges are, therefore, more useful than the non-recording type rain
gauges discussed above.

b) Site for a Rain Gauge Station

While selecting a site for the rain gauge station and installing the rain gauge, the following
points should be kept in mind.

- The site should be in an open space having an area of at least 5.5 m x 5.5 m .

- The distance of the instrument from the nearest obstruction should not be less than 30
m or twice the height of the obstruction.

- A site that is sheltered from high winds should be chosen.

- The rain gauge, as far as possible, should not be installed on the top or the side of the
hill. I f unavoidable, the site which is best protected from high winds should be chosen.

- A fence should be erected around the rain gauge station to protect the gauge from
cattle, dogs, etc. However, the distance of the fence should not be less than twice its
height.

- The gauge must always be mounted firmly so that it cannot be disturbed even by the
strongest wind in that region.

- The gauge should be set as near the ground surface as possible to reduce wind effects.
But at the same time, it should be sufficiently high to prevent splashing of surface water
into it.

- The gauge should have a level horizontal catch surface.

c) Rainfall measurement by RADAR

Radio Detecting and Ranging, popularly known as RADAR, is a powerful tool used for the
determination of the areal extent, orientation and movement of rain storms. Fig. 4.3
illustrates the principle on which the RADAR works. Electromagnetic waves (pulses) are
produced by a transmitter and are radiated by a narrow-beam antenna. These waves are
reflected by the target (in this case storm) and are intercepted by the same antenna, which
now acts as a receiver. The receiver detects these reflected signals and amplifies them. The
returned signals are transformed into a visual display on the radarscope. The receiver may
also transform the signals into a video form on a Plan Position Indicator.

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 Fig. 4.3
(K.R. Arora, 2002)

The intensity of illumination depends upon the characteristics of the storm. The
photographic exposures of the returned signals, called echoes, are integrated and are
calibrated using the records obtained with a recording-type rain gauge. These calibration
charts are useful for determining the rainfall intensity by the radar in future.

4.5 Estimation of missing rainfall data

Before analysing the rainfall data of a region, it is necessary to check its continuity. The data is
discontinuous when a particular rain gauge is not operative for some period of the record. In such a
case, it becomes necessary to supplement the missing data by an intelligent estimation. The missing
data is usually estimated from the available data of the neighbouring rain gauge stations called index
stations. For estimation of the missing data, the normal annual rainfalls of all the rain gauge stations,
including the station with the missing data, are required. The normal annual rainfall of a station is
the average value of the annual rainfall over a specified period of 30 years or so. The normal rainfall
is updated every ten years. The following three methods are generally used.

a) Comparison method
If the rainfall record of a rain gauge station (say, X) is missing for a relatively long period,
such as a month or a year, it can be estimated by comparing the mean annual rainfall of the
station X with that of an adjoining station A. Thus

PX N X

PA N A

Where PX and PA are the precipitations of the stations X and A for the missing period, and
N X and N A are the mean annual rainfalls of the stations X and A.

b) Normal Ratio Method

When there is a short break in the precipitation data of a rain gauge station, it can be
estimated from the observed data of three adjoining index stations A, B, and C, which are
evenly distributed around the stations X. The following two cases are dealt with separately .

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 - When the mean annual rainfall at each of the index stations A, B and C is within 10% of
the mean annual rainfall of station X, a simple average of the values of the index station
is taken. Thus

1
PX  PA  PB  PC 
3

- When the mean annual rainfall at each of the index stations differs from the station X by
more than 10%, the normal ratio method is used. Thus

NX  PA PB PC 
PX   
3 N  N  N 
 A B C 

- Where the symbol N is used for the mean annual rainfall (also called average annual
precipitation) and the symbol P is used for the precipitation. And when there are M
index stations,

NX  PA PB PC PM 
PX   
M  N  N  N  ....  N 
 A B C M 

c) Isohyetal map methods

Isohyets are the contours of equal rainfall depth. An isohyetaI map is prepared from the
record of various rain gauge stations by interpolation. The isohyetal map method is suitable
for the estimation of the missing data of a station X due to a particular storm. An isohyetal
map is prepared from the data of the various rain gauge stations, and the precipitation of
the station X is estimated from the two isohyets between which the station lies.

4.6 Average Rainfall over an area

A single point precipitation measurement is quite often not representative of the volume of
precipitation falling over a given catchment area. A dense network of point measurements and/or
radar estimates can provide a better representation of the true volume over a given area. A network
of point precipitation measurements can be converted to areal precipitation using a number of
techniques including the following.

a) Arithmetic Mean Method:

This technique calculates areal rainfall using the arithmetic mean of all the point or areal
measurements considered in the analysis. In the arithmetic mean method, the average
depth of rainfall (p) over an area is taken as the arithmetic mean of the rainfall depths of all
the stations. It is obtained by dividing the 'sum of the depths of rainfall recorded at all the
rain gauge stations by the number of stations. Thus;

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 Fig. 4.4 Catchment Area

P1  P2  ...  Pn
p
n

where P1, P2, …, Pn are the depths of rainfall recorded at the raingauges 1, 2, ...., and
n.

This methods does not give accurate results and hence is rarely used in practice.

b) Thiessen Polygon Method

This is another graphical technique which calculates station weights based on the relative
areas of each measurement station in the Thiessen polygon network. Here, the rainfall
recorded at each raingauge station is given a weightage on the basis of the area which it
represents. This method is better than the arithmetic mean method which gives equal
weightage to all the stations. The following procedure is used to work out the average
rainfall.

(i) The positions of the rain gauge stations are marked on the plan of the catchment
area over which the average rainfall depth is required.

(ii) The adjacent raingauge stations are then joined by straight lines; thus the entire
area is divided into a series of triangles (Fig. 3·3). The rain gauge stations which are
outside the catchment area but are in its neighbourhood should also be considered.

(iii) Perpendicular bisectors are then drawn on the connecting lines to form
polygons around stations. Each polygon contains only one rain gauge station. The
entire area of a particular polygon is nearer to the raingauge station contained
therein than to any other raingauge station. Thus each polygon represents the area
of the influence of that raingauge station.

(iv) For determination of the average depth of rainfall. the boundary of the
catchment is taken as the outer limit of the Thiessen polygons. The areas of the
polygons are determined either with a planimeter or with an overlay grid, whichever
method is appropriate to you.

(v) The average precipitation of the area is given by:

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 P1 A1  P2 A2  ...  Pn An
p
( A1  A2  ....  An )
i n

P A
i 1
i i
p
A

where A1, A2, …, An are the areas of the Thiessen polygons representing the stations 1, 2, …, n
and P1, P2, …, Pn are the corresponding precipitations, and A is the total area.

Although Thiessen Polygon Method is regarded as better than the Arithmetic Mean Method,
it has one disadvantage and that is, its inflexibility. If there is a change in the location of the
raingauges or when new raingauge stations are set up, then a new Thiessen polygon
network is required.

d) Isohyetal Map Method

This is a graphical technique which involves drawing estimated lines of equal rainfall over an
area based on point measurements. These lines are called Isohyets, which are basically
contours of equal rainfall depth. For plotting of an isohyetal map, raingauge stations are
marked on the plan of the catchment. The rainfall recorded at these stations is also marked
on the plan. The raingauge stations located outside the catchment but in its neighbourhood
are also marked. The isohyets of various rainfall depths are then drawn. Generally, a linear
variation of rainfall depth is assumed between the two rain gauge stations. The procedure is
similar to one used for drawing of the elevation contours from the spot levels in surveying.
Fig. 3·4 shows a typical isohyetal map.

Fig. 4.5 Catchment Area with isohyets

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 P12 A12  P23 A23  ...  P( n1), n A( n 1),n
p
A12  A23  ....  A( n1), n

P A ij ij

p
A ij

Where P12 is the average precipitation over the area A12 between two adjacent isohyets
marked 1 and 2. And so is the same for P23. The Isohyetal Map Method is normally perceived
as the most accurate method of the three methods.

4.7 Mean Annual Rainfall (MAR)

The daily rainfall collected from a rain gauge stations is totalled to obtain the yearly rainfall of that
year. The mean annual rainfall is equal to the average of the total yearly rainfalls of several
consecutive years. The mean annual rainfall is also known as the Average Annual Rainfall (AAR). In
general, the precipitation cycle repeats roughly after 35 years, (K.R. Arora, 2002). Alexander Binnie
found that if the mean annual rainfall is worked out from a record of consecutive 35 years, it is
within 1·8% of the true mean value. It is, therefore, usual practice to consider the record of 35
consecutive years for the determination of the mean annual rainfall. However, if the mean annual
rainfall is computed from a record of less than 35 years, the error in the computed mean annual
rainfall will be as given in Table 4.1 below.

Table 4·1 (K.R. Arora, 2002)

Period (years) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Error (%) 1·8 2·3 2-8 3·3 4·8 8·2 14·9

US Weather Bureau, however, recommends a uniform record for 40 years for the
computation of the mean annual rainfall.

The Index of Wetness can be defined as the ratio of the rainfall in a particular year to the
mean annual rainfall. It is usually expressed as a percentage.

If the rainfall in a year is less than the mean annual rainfall, it is called a dry (or bad) year. On
the other hand, if it is a more than the mean annual rainfall, it is called, a wet (or good) year.
When the annual rainfall is approximately equal to the mean annual rainfall, it is called a
normal year.

Different Regions may be classified differently based on precipitation. Depending upon the
mean annual rainfall (MAR), the regions are usually divided as follows:

(i) Humid Regions, MAR > 750 mm

(ii) Semi-Arid Regions, 400 < MAR < 750 mm

(iii) Arid Regions, MAR < 400 mm.

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 4.8 Frequency of Rainfall

The frequency of rainfall is determined assuming that the rainfall is a random variable and the
mathematical theory of probability is applicable. To determine the frequency of a particular extreme
rainfall, such as 24 hour maximum rainfall, the rainfall data of the past storms is analysed. The
rainfall data of the place is collected and arranged in the chronological order. For determination of
the frequency of 24 hr. maximum rainfall, the rainfall data series would consist of the maximum 24
hr. rainfall of each year of the period of record. The data should be adequate, accurate and
consistent. The record shorter than 20 years would not give reliable results. The longer the period of
record, the more reliable is the frequency analysis. If the meteorological conditions have changed,
the data should be used after proper adjustments.

a) Basic definitions

- Recurrence Interval, T: The recurrence interval is the average interval in which a

specified event is equalled or exceeded. For example, if 25 cm rain falls in 24 hours on an
average is equalled or exceeded once in 20 years, the recurrence interval of 25 cm
rainfall is 20 years.

The recurrence interval does not imply the periodicity of events. For example, in the
above mentioned example, it does not mean that 25 cm rainfall will occur after every 20
years. It only means that if we consider a very long period, say 200 years, the rainfall of
this magnitude will be equalled or exceeded ten times. This rainfall may be equalled or
exceeded even after one year or twice in two consecutive years, and may not be
equalled or exceeded for a long period of 30-40 years or so in a stretch. The recurrence
interval is also known as the return period.

- Probability of Occurrence, p: The probability of an event being equalled or exceeded in

any one year is the probability of its occurrence. Obviously, probability is the inverse of
the recurrence interval.

1
p
T

- Frequency, f: The probability of occurrence of an event expressed as a percentage is

known as frequency (f). Thus

1
f  100 p   100
T
In water resources engineering, the term frequency is loosely used to represent the
recurrence interval and the probability. The student should note the difference carefully.

- Probability of non-occurrence, q: The probability of non-occurrence of an event in any

one year is given by:

q 1 p

- Probability of occurrence at least once (Risk), J: The probability of occurrence of an

event at least once in N successive years is given by;

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 J  1  (1  p ) N

- Probability of non-occurrence in N successive years, K: The probability that an event will

not occur in any of N successive years is given by;

K  (1  p ) N

b) Determination of the Recurrence Interval

The recurrence interval of an event can be obtained either by an empirical method or by an

analytical method. The empirical method is given below. For the analytical method, the
student is advised to refer to a topic on flood analysis discussed later.

Procedure:

(i) The available rainfall data, from a record of n years, is arranged in descending order
of magnitude.
(ii) The rank (m) of each rainfall is determined. It is equal to its position in the series. In
other words, the highest rainfall will have m = 1, the second highest, m = 2, and so
on. Of course the lowest rainfall will have m = n. The rank is also known as the
plotting position.
(iii) Now the recurrence interval for any rainfall of the rank m is calculated by the
Weibull formula.

n 1
T
m
The Weibull formula is commonly used in practice. Sometimes other formulae are
also used like the ones presented below.

n
Hazen’s formula, T
m  0.50

n
California formula, T
m

(iv) Once the recurrence interval for a particular rainfall has been calculated, the
probability (or the frequency) can be determined as discussed above.

4.9 Intensity Duration Curve

It has been observed in practice that the greater the intensity of rainfall, the shorter is the duration
of the rainfall. In other words, very intense storms occur for a short duration, and as the duration of
a storm increases, its intensity decreases. The intensity-duration curve can be obtained by plotting
the rainfall intensity against duration of the storm. The rainfall intensity is usually expressed in
mm/hour and the duration is in minutes (or hours). The curve is usually drawn on a natural graph

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 paper. For plotting an intensity duration curve, the observed maximum rainfall intensities at a place
for storms of different durations are obtained from the available rainfall record.

As the rainfall intensity (i) varies inversely with the duration (t), the relation between the two can be
expressed by Talbot's formula:

a
i
t b
where a and b are constants.
The Talbot formula is applicable for storms of duration 5 to 120 minutes. However, for storms of
duration longer than 2 hours, the Sherman formula is commonly used. According to this formula,

a
i
t  b n
Where n is again a constant.

4.10 Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves

The intensity-duration curves for storms of different recurrence intervals are different. A storm of
any given duration will have higher intensity if its recurrence interval is large or the frequency
(different from the term discussed above) is low. In other words, for a given duration, the storms of
higher intensity are rarer than the storm of smaller intensity.

Fig. 4.6

Fig. 4.6 shows the intensity-duration-frequency curves for four different recurrence intervals. For
plotting these curves, the rainfall data is collected for a number of years. Using the probability
analysis, the storms of different recurrence intervals such as 3 years, 5 years, 10 years and 20 years

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 are determined. The intensity duration-curve for several storms of a particular recurrence interval is
then drawn, using the procedure discussed above .

4.11 Depth-Duration-Frequency Curves

The depth-duration-frequency curves are similar to the intensity-duration curves with one basic
difference that the y-axis represents the total depth of the rainfall instead of the intensity of rainfall.
Storms of different recurrence intervals are determined from the record by the probability analysis.

As the total depth of rainfall increases with the duration of the rainfall, the curves are rising curves.
Moreover, the total depth of rainfall for a particular duration increases with an increase in
recurrence interval.

4.12 Probable Maximum Precipitation

The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the greatest or extreme precipitation for a given
duration that is physically possible over a basin or catchment. It is the critical depth- area-duration
(DAD) relation for a given basin, which would result from a storm due to the most critical
meteorological conditions that are probable of occurrence. The development of PMP for a given
basin is quite complicated and requires the help of an expert hydrometeorologist.

The PMP is usually estimated by maximising the effect of various meteorological factors such as
humidity, temperature, and wind. There are two approaches for the estimation of PMP:

- Meteorological approach
- Statistical approach

a) Meteorological approach

In this approach. PMP is derived from the depth-area-duration (DAD) analysis of

precipitation that have occurred or would have occurred in the basin. These DAD curves are
adjusted for maximum moisture changes which are probable. The DAD curves of PMP are
then obtained by enveloping curves of the adjusted values for all storms.

If the precipitation data of a basin is not available to develop DAD curves but the same is
available for an adjacent basin having similar meteorological conditions, storm transposition
can be done. In this process, the storm of the adjacent basin is assumed to occur over the
basin under consideration. In other words, the DAD curves of the adjacent basin are used for
the basin under consideration. However, the transposed storm is modified for factors such
as elevation, latitude and distance from moisture source so as to make it representative for
the basin.

b) Statistical approach

PMP of a basin can be estimated by the statistical approach if data is available for a long
period. The record of maximum annual rainfalls at the raingauge station is analysed using

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 the probability theory. The mean of annual maximum precipitation (P) and the standard
deviation (a) are determined. PMP is then estimated from the relation,

PMP  P  K 

where K is a frequency factor which depends upon the statistical distribution of the annual
maximum precipitation series, number of years of record and the recurrence period. Its
value varies between 5 and 30. An average value of 15 is usually taken.

PMP is required for the estimation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for the design of
spillways of large dams. Because the failure of such dams would cause heavy damage to life
and property, the designer keeps the failure probability as low as possible and selects PMP
for its design.

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