INTERNAL ASSESSMENT PROJECT

ON
UNDERSTANDING SEASONAL VARIATIONS
IN CONSUMER DEMAND

SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
MASTER’S OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Under the Supervision of

DR. ASHISH SINGH

SUBMITTED TO: DR. ASHISH SINGH SUBMITTED BY:

SOUGATASAMADDER. [20GSOB1030016]
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We extend our sincere gratitude to those who have been instrumental in the successful
completion of this project. Their support, guidance, and contributions have played a
pivotal role in shaping this endeavour.

First and foremost, we would like to express our heartfelt thanks to Dr. Ashish Singh
sir for his invaluable involvement, support, and extensive knowledge. His guidance
throughout this study has been a source of inspiration, and his expertise has
significantly enriched the quality of our project.

We also wish to extend our appreciation to the management of GALGOTIAS

UNIVERSITY for providing us with the opportunity to work on this project. The
encouragement and support received from the university have been crucial in the
successful execution of our study.

THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR INVALUABLE SUPPORT.

 DECLARATION BY STUDENT

We the students of M.B.A of Section-13 of Galgotias University, declare that project titled

“UNDERSTANDING SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CONSUMER DEMAND.”

was carried out by us in partial fulfilment of the requirements for M.B.A of Galgotias University.

Furthis, I certify that the work is based on the investigation made, data collected and analysed by us and
it has not been submitted in any othis University or Institution for award of any degree.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT-------------------------------------------------------------------------------2

DECLARATION BY STUDENT-----------------------------------------------------------------------3

TABLE OF CONTENTS---------------------------------------------------------------------------------4

ABSTRACT-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5

INTRODUCTION-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6

PROBLEM STATEMENT------------------------------------------------------------------------------8

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES------------------------------------------------------------------------------9

SCOPE OF THE STUDY-------------------------------------------------------------------------------10

METHODOLOGY---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------12

DATA COLLECTION----------------------------------------------------------------------------------13

ANALYSES AND FINDINGS-------------------------------------------------------------------------15

RESULTS--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19

CONCLUSION-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------20
ABSTRACT
This research explores the dynamic landscape of consumer behavior within the retail industry, focusing
on the seasonal variations during festive and downfall periods. The study employs a multifaceted
approach, incorporating sales data, time of peak sales, and preferences for special products during
Diwali and identified downfall seasons. Statistical techniques, including central tendency measures and
correlation/regression analysis, are applied to uncover patterns and trends. Comparative analysis
between festive and non-festive periods enhances the understanding of consumer dynamics. Additional
factors such as economic conditions, weekend sales variations, and the impact of new product releases
contribute to a comprehensive examination. The research aims to provide actionable insights for
businesses to optimize marketing strategies, inventory management, and product offerings based on
seasonal variations in consumer demand. Acknowledging limitations and suggesting future research
areas enrich the study's significance. Overall, the research seeks to contribute valuable knowledge to the
evolving retail landscape

KEYWORDS: Consumer Behavior, Seasonal Variations, Festive Periods, Downfall Seasons, Retail
Industry, Statistical Analysis.
INTRODUCTION

1. UNDERSTANDING FESTIVE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Consumer behavior undergoes significant transformations during festive periods, reshaping purchasing
patterns and preferences. Festivals like Deepawali and Christmas Eve play a pivotal role in influencing
consumer decisions, particularly in the context of specific products. The festive atmosphere creates a
unique consumer mindset, characterized by heightened emotions and a propensity for increased
spending.

2. FOCUS ON SMARTPHONE PURCHASES

This report centers on the spending behavior analysis related to smartphone purchases during the
Deepawali and Christmas Eve seasons. Smartphones, being integral to modern lifestyles, exhibit
distinct demand variations during festive periods compared to regular days. The choice of smartphones
as a focal product reflects their status as popular gifts, aligning with the gift-giving tradition during
festivals.

3. DEEPAWALI SEASON INSIGHTS

Exploring the Deepawali season, we analyze the quantity sold, timing of peak sales, and key
influencing factors. During this period, there is a notable surge in demand, with 1500 units sold. This
surge can be attributed to cultural practices of gifting smartphones during this festive period. The
evening peak sales from 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM align with consumers' preference to shop after work hours
during the festival. The key factors influencing this surge are the festive gifting culture and the
attractive discounts and promotions offered during the Deepawali week.

4. CHRISTMAS EVE SEASON DYNAMICS

The Christmas Eve season introduces another facet of consumer behavior, with a focus on high-end
smartphones as popular gifts. By investigating the quantity sold, timing of peak sales, and key factors,
we unveil the unique characteristics of consumer spending during this festive period. The robust
demand for smartphones, with 1200 units sold, suggests a trend towards high-end models as sought-
after Christmas gifts. The time of peak sales from 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM mirrors the trend observed
during Deepawali, indicating that consumers prefer evening hours for festive shopping. The key factors
contributing to this surge are increased consumer spending during the Christmas season, high demand
for gifts, and festive promotions offered during this period.

5. REGULAR DAYS AND MARKET FLUCTUATIONS

Beyond festive seasons, this report delves into smartphone demand on regular days. With an average
monthly quantity sold and insights into fluctuations influenced by market trends and product launches,
we aim to provide a holistic understanding of consumer behavior throughout the year. On regular days,
the product maintains a steady demand, with fluctuations influenced by market dynamics and
promotional efforts. Weekends show a slightly higher sales volume, suggesting that consumers may
have more time for shopping during the weekend. The steady demand on other days is indicative of
the product's general appeal, while external factors like new product releases and promotions
contribute to fluctuations.

6. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ANALYSIS

This analysis is crucial for businesses to tailor their strategies, optimize inventory management, and
enhance marketing approaches based on the seasonal variations in consumer behavior. Understanding
the nuances of consumer preferences during festive seasons enables businesses to capitalize on these
trends, offering targeted promotions and ensuring sufficient stock levels to meet heightened demand.
PROBLEM STATEMENT
The retail industry experiences fluctuations in consumer demand throughout the year, with peak sales
during festive periods and potential downfall during certain seasons. Understanding the factors
contributing to these variations is crucial for businesses to optimize marketing strategies, inventory
management, and product offerings.

This research seeks to address the following key questions:

1. What are the specific patterns of consumer demand during Diwali, a prominent festive
season, and during identified downfall periods?
2. How do central tendency and dispersion techniques, such as mean, median, mode,
standard deviation, range, and interquartile deviation, provide insights into the nature
of sales fluctuations during these seasons?
3. Is there a correlation between the years and sales during festive and downfall seasons,
and can regression analysis be employed to predict future sales trends?
4. What specific recommendations can be formulated based on the analysis to optimize
sales strategies for each season?
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES:

AIM
To comprehensively understand and analyze the seasonal variations in consumer demand within the
retail industry, focusing on two distinct periods - festive seasons, represented by Diwali, and downfall
seasons characterized by a decline in sales.

OBJECTIVES:

IDENTIFY SPECIFIC CONSUMER PATTERNS:

To identify and analyze the specific patterns of consumer demand during Diwali, a prominent festive
season, and during identified downfall periods.

UTILIZE CENTRAL TENDENCY AND DISPERSION TECHNIQUES:

To employ central tendency and dispersion techniques, such as mean, median, mode, standard
deviation, range, and interquartile deviation, to provide insights into the nature of sales fluctuations
during these seasons.

EXPLORE CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS:

To explore the correlation between the years and sales during festive and downfall seasons and assess
the potential use of regression analysis to predict future sales trends.

FORMULATE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SALES OPTIMIZATION:

To formulate specific recommendations based on the analysis to optimize sales strategies for each
season, considering factors such as time of peak sales and special product preferences.

ACKNOWLEDGE LIMITATIONS AND SUGGEST FUTURE

RESEARCH AREAS:
To acknowledge any limitations in the study or data quality issues and suggest potential areas for future
research in understanding seasonal variations in consumer demand.
SCOPE OF THE STUDY:
The scope of this research extends beyond a mere examination of sales data during specific periods; it
encompasses a holistic understanding of seasonal variations in consumer demand within the retail
industry. The study focuses on two distinctive periods: festive seasons, typified by Diwali, and downfall
seasons marked by a decline in sales. The scope includes:

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR:

Delving into specific patterns of consumer demand during Diwali and downfall periods, aiming to
identify shifts in purchasing behavior influenced by cultural celebrations and economic conditions.

APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES:

Utilizing statistical techniques, including central tendency measures (mean, median, mode), dispersion
techniques (standard deviation, range, interquartile deviation), and correlation/regression analysis, to
provide a comprehensive overview of the nature of sales fluctuations during the targeted seasons.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SALES OPTIMIZATION:

Formulating targeted recommendations based on the analysis to optimize sales strategies during each
season. This involves identifying optimal timeframes for promotions, understanding peak sales periods,
and aligning product offerings with consumer preferences.

ACKNOWLEDGING LIMITATIONS AND PROPOSING

FUTURE RESEARCH AREAS:
Addressing any limitations in the study or data quality issues and suggesting potential areas for future
research. This includes considering external factors such as evolving market trends, technological
advancements, and changes in consumer preferences.

EXPLORATION OF ADDITIONAL FACTORS INFLUENCING

DEMAND:
Incorporating additional data, such as average monthly sales during non-festive periods, variations in
weekend sales, the impact of new product releases, and economic conditions. This broader dataset
contributes to a more nuanced analysis of factors shaping consumer behavior.

COMPARISON OF FESTIVE AND NON-FESTIVE PERIODS:

Providing a comparative analysis of consumer behavior during festive seasons (Diwali) and non-festive
periods, focusing on the identified downfall seasons. This allows for a better understanding of the
unique dynamics at play during specific times of the year.
HOLISTIC APPROACH TO SALES TRENDS:
Extending the scope to consider various facets influencing sales trends, including cultural
influences, consumer preferences for special products, and external market dynamics. This approach
facilitates a more holistic comprehension of the factors impacting consumer decision-making.

APPLICATION OF RESEARCH FINDINGS FOR BUSINESS

STRATEGIES:
Translating research findings into actionable insights for businesses, enabling them to tailor marketing
strategies, optimize inventory management, and enhance product offerings based on seasonal variations
in consumer demand.
METHODOLOGY

1. SEASONAL VARIATION:
Begin by defining seasonal variations in time series data, recognizing them as upward or downward
movements occurring at regular intervals. This includes understanding the cyclic patterns in sales data,
exemplified by the seasonal fluctuations in sales of winter clothes.

2. MEASUREMENT OF SEASONAL VARIATION:

Explore various methods for measuring seasonal variation to gain insights into realistic planning for
activities such as purchases and production. This involves a comprehensive examination of different
techniques, considering the specific characteristics of the data under consideration.

3. DESCRIPTIVE AND EXPLANATIVE ANALYSIS:

Engage in descriptive analysis to identify and interpret patterns in time series data. This includes
recognizing trends, cycles, and seasonal variations. Simultaneously, conduct explanative analysis to
understand the underlying factors contributing to these observed patterns. The objective is to go beyond
recognizing patterns and delve into the causative elements driving them.

4. TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES:

Dive into time-series analysis techniques to analyze historical data systematically. This involves
identifying trends and seasonal variations within the data. The focus is on uncovering the inherent
patterns that may influence future developments. Techniques include statistical methods and data
visualization to gain a comprehensive understanding of the time series.

5. TIME-SERIES FORECASTING MODELS:

Implement advanced time-series forecasting models like Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (SARIMA), Exponential Smoothing, and other relevant methods. These models allow for
predicting future sales and capturing the seasonal nuances in item demand. Validate the models using
appropriate metrics to ensure accuracy and reliability of predictions.

7. MODEL VALIDATION:
Validate the accuracy and reliability of the forecasting models. Employ statistical validation
techniques, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE) or Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), to assess the
model's performance against actual data.
DATA COLLECTION:

1. PRIMARY DATA:
The primary data for this research was gathered directly from retail shops specializing in various
products. The focus was on shops offering:
 Traditional Diyas and Decorations
 Sweets and Gift Hampers
 Jewelry
 Electronics and Gadgets
 Data collection involved collaborating with these shops during the Diwali season and other
downfall periods. Sales records, including quantity sold, dates, and time of peak sales,
were obtained directly from the shopkeepers.

2. SECONDARY DATA:
Secondary data was sourced from reputable business news articles and reports to supplement the
primary data. Information on overall retail trends during Diwali, economic conditions, and the impact
of specific factors on consumer behavior was extracted from these sources.

SALES DATA:
The primary dataset includes sales figures for each year during Diwali and downfall seasons. This data
is collected through sales records, point-of-sale systems, and transaction logs, providing quantitative
insights into consumer purchasing behavior.

TIME OF PEAK SALES:

The time of peak sales during Diwali and downfall seasons is crucial for understanding consumer
behavior patterns. This information is obtained through real-time monitoring of sales
transactions, allowing for the identification of specific timeframes when sales reach their highest
points.

SPECIAL PRODUCT PREFERENCES:

Identifying consumer preferences for special products during Diwali and downfall seasons is vital. Data
on the sales of specific products such as Electronics and Gadgets, Silver Jewelry, Traditional Diyas and
Decorations, Sweets and Gift Hampers, and Plantable Stationery is collected to ascertain the influence
of product types on overall sales.

AVERAGE MONTHLY SALES DURING OTHER DAYS:

To provide context and contrast to festive and downfall seasons, average monthly sales data during
non- festive periods is collected. This data helps establish a baseline for regular sales and highlights
variations during specific seasons.
WEEKEND SALES VARIATION:
Understanding the variation in sales during weekends versus weekdays is crucial for discerning
consumer behavior patterns. This data is collected through daily sales records, categorizing sales figures
based on the day of the week.

IMPACT OF NEW PRODUCT RELEASES:

Data on the impact of new product releases is gathered to assess how the introduction of new items
influences overall sales. This information is essential for understanding consumer responsiveness to
product innovation.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:
Data on economic conditions, such as indicators of economic stability or decline, is collected to gauge
the external factors influencing consumer spending habits. Economic data may include GDP growth
rates, inflation rates, and consumer confidence indices.

COMPARISON OF FESTIVE AND NON-FESTIVE PERIODS:

Comparative data between festive and non-festive periods, specifically Diwali versus the identified
downfall seasons, is collected to highlight variations in consumer behavior, sales trends, and product
preferences.
ANALYSES AND FINDINGS:
In-depth analyses were conducted to explore the seasonal variations in consumer demand during the
Diwali season, characterized by heightened sales, and downfall seasons, marked by a decline in sales.
The study employed statistical techniques, including central tendency measures, dispersion methods,
and additional data to offer comprehensive insights.

DIWALI SEASON:

CENTRAL TENDENCY MEASURES:

 Mean Sales: 1540 units
 Median Sales: 1550 units
 Mode: No mode (no repeated values)

DISPERSION TECHNIQUES:
 Standard Deviation: Approximately 74 units
 Range: 650 units (from 900 to 1550)
 Interquartile Deviation: Approximately 45 units

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION:

SALES OF PRODUCTS DURING DIWALI

AND OFF-SEASON
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sales during Diwali

.
Figure 1 graphical representation of sales during diwali season.
ADDITIONAL DATA ANALYSIS:
 Average Monthly Sales (Other Days): Ranged from 780 to 850 units.
 Weekend Sales Variation: Slightly higher during Diwali compared to regular weekends.
 New Product Release Impact: Varied, with high impact in 2019 and 2020.
 Economic Conditions: Generally stable, with a slight decline in 2020.

OTHER SEASONS WITH DOWNFALL:

CENTRAL TENDENCY MEASURES:

 Mean Sales: 710 units
 Median Sales: 710 units
 Mode: No mode (no repeated values)

DISPERSION TECHNIQUES:
 Standard Deviation: Approximately 28 units
 Range: 170 units (from 680 to 850)
 Interquartile Deviation: Approximately 25 units

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION:

SALES OF PRODUCTS DURING DIWALI

AND OFF-SEASON
760

740

720

700

680

660

640
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sales during off-season

Figure 2 graphical representation of sales during off-season.

ADDITIONAL DATA ANALYSIS:
 Average Monthly Sales (Other Days): Ranged from 750 to 820 units.
 Weekend Sales Variation: Slightly higher during downfall seasons compared to
regular weekends.
 New Product Release Impact: Varied, with the highest impact in 2021.
 Economic Conditions: Showed a mix of stability and improvement over the years.

OVERALL FINDINGS:

SALES TRENDS:
 Diwali season exhibits a peak in sales, with noticeable fluctuations over the years.
 Downfall seasons show a consistent but lower demand, with a more stable trend.

CENTRAL TENDENCY AND DISPERSION:

 Diwali season has a higher mean and standard deviation, indicating greater variability
in sales.
 Downfall seasons have a lower mean and standard deviation, signifying more
stable sales patterns.

IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL FACTORS:

 Weekend sales variations and new product releases have a noticeable impact during
both Diwali and downfall seasons.
 Economic conditions play a role in influencing consumer behavior, with stable
or improving conditions positively correlating with sales.

RECOMMENDATIONS:
 Diwali season recommendations include targeted promotions on Electronics
and Gadgets and extending store hours.
 Downfall season recommendations include implementing marketing campaigns,
analyzing customer preferences, and offering promotions on identified special
products.
 GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS:

SALES OF PRODUCTS DURING DIWALI

AND OFF-SEASON
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sales during Diwali

Sales during off-season
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Sales during off-season)

Figure 3 Graphical representation comparing the sales of product during both seasons.

Table 1. Representing Sales, Weekend sales Variation during the Diwali season.

Year Average Weekend Sales New Product Economic

Monthly Sales Variation Release Impact Conditions
(Diwali Season)

2018 1400 Higher High Stable

2019 1550 Higher Moderate Stable

2020 1650 Higher High Declining
2021 1500 Higher Low Improving
2022 1600 Higher High Stable

Table 2. Representing Sales, Weekend sales Variation during the Off-season.

Year Average Weekend Sales New Product Economic

Monthly Sales Variation Release Impact Conditions
(Other Days)
2018 800 Slightly higher Moderate Stable

2019 820 Slightly higher High Stable

2020 850 Slightly higher Moderate Declining
2021 820 Slightly higher Low Improving
2022 780 Slightly higher High Stable
RESULTS

DIWALI SEASON:

SALES TRENDS:
 Diwali season consistently experienced high sales, with a notable increase over
the years.

CENTRAL TENDENCY AND DISPERSION:

 Mean sales during Diwali ranged from 1400 to 1650 units, indicating a
substantial variation.
 Standard deviation showed moderate variability, reflecting consistent but
fluctuating demand.

IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL FACTORS:

 Weekend sales variation was higher during Diwali, indicating a concentrated peak in
consumer activity.
 New product releases had a significant impact, especially in 2019 and 2020.

OTHER SEASONS WITH DOWNFALL:

SALES TRENDS:
 Downfall seasons exhibited lower but consistent demand, with sales ranging from 680 to 850
units.

CENTRAL TENDENCY AND DISPERSION:

 Mean sales during downfall seasons were around 710 units, indicating a more stable but
lower demand compared to Diwali.
 Standard deviation was lower, signifying less variability in sales.

IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL FACTORS:

 Weekend sales variation was slightly higher during downfall seasons, indicating a
consistent but less dynamic demand.
 New product releases had varying impacts, with the highest in 2021.

OVERALL IMPLICATIONS:
 Diwali season showed a positive trend with higher variability, while downfall seasons
indicated a more stable but consistently lower demand.
 Tailoring marketing strategies and promotions based on seasonal variations can optimize
sales and meet customer preferences.
CONCLUSION
This research delved into the seasonal variations in consumer demand within the retail industry,
focusing on two distinct periods: Diwali, representing heightened sales, and downfall seasons, marked
by a decline in sales. Through extensive analyses, several key findings emerged:

DIWALI SEASON DYNAMICS:

Diwali season exhibits a significant peak in sales, with notable fluctuations over the years. The sales
trends during Diwali showcase a cultural inclination towards increased consumer spending, resulting in
a positive impact on retail sales.

DOWNFALL SEASON CHARACTERISTICS:

Downfall seasons show a consistent but lower demand compared to Diwali. The sales during these
periods are more stable, with a lower mean and standard deviation, indicating a more predictable
pattern.

IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL FACTORS:

Weekend sales variations, new product releases, and economic conditions play pivotal roles in
influencing consumer behavior. These factors contribute to the overall dynamics observed during both
Diwali and downfall seasons.

OPTIMIZING SALES STRATEGIES:

Recommendations include tailoring marketing strategies based on seasonal variations, offering targeted
promotions on identified special products, and analyzing consumer preferences to optimize sales
strategies.

FUTURE RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES:

Acknowledging the limitations in the study, future research can explore evolving market trends,
technological advancements, and changing consumer preferences to gain a more nuanced understanding
of the retail landscape.
In conclusion, this research equips businesses with actionable insights to adapt their strategies, enhance
product offerings, and thrive in the dynamic retail environment shaped by seasonal variations in
consumer demand.
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 SHOPIFY. (2022). "WHAT IS HOLIDAY SEASON FIRST-PARTY DATA? A

COMPLETE GUIDE." LINK

 TIMES OF INDIA. (2022). "HOW CONSUMER BEHAVIOR CHANGES DURING

THE FESTIVE PERIOD." LINK

 FASTERCAPITAL. (2023). "DECODING CONSUMER BEHAVIOR: THE IMPACT

OF SEASONALITY." LINK

 INVESTOPEDIA. (N.D.). "SEASONALITY: WHAT IT MEANS IN BUSINESS AND

ECONOMICS." LINK