Increase.

First, for the polar and subpolar region.

The sea ice will melt and increases the ocean’s area. It is predicted that “the Arctic
could become nearly ice-free year-round during the 22nd century” if the emission is
high (European Environment Agency, 2023). The ocean surface is no longer being
covered by sea ice and primary producers can occupy the sea surface to catch the
sunlight.
The melting sea ice would reduce the reflection of light. Sea ice has high albedo and
can reflect 50% to 70% of light. The limiting factor of PP in the polar ocean is light
due to low angle of sun and half-year of polar night. The reducing of reflection can
maximize the use of sunlight during polar summer.
The trend for annual mean primary production between 2003 to 2021 in Arctic is also
increasing (Frey, 2021). It is likely that it will keep increasing in the future.

Second, for the coastal region.

Coastal upwelling would be stronger due to stronger wind. Supported by the
modelling for California Current System, global warming can increase the
temperature difference of land and sea, so the wind paralleling to the sea would be
stronger and thus the upwelling force is stronger (Xiu, 2018). A stronger coastal
upwelling can bring the nutrient from the depth up and increase primary production.
More runoff from land can lead to higher coastal productivity. According to NOAA’s
data, the precipitation of annual rainfall is rising since 1910 and global warming
would lead to higher rainfall (NOAA, 2021). Higher rainfall in coastal region can wash
the nutrient from land to the coast which boosts primary production there.

Third, the productive biomes.

current productive biomes can shift. Organisms responsible for primary production
can migrate to a better environment. For example, news about the finding corals in
higher latitude regions (Jones, 2011) and shifting of kelp forest to where the water is
colder during the climate change (Krumhansl, 2016), despite the decrease of number
in the original site. The adaptation strategies of these organisms can make them
adapt to the changing climate and make primary production unaffected in long term.

Forth, the equatorial region.

The equatorial upwelling is likely to be stronger. According to a modelling, it
predicted that the equatorial currents are going to be faster under global warming
(Peng, 2022). The two currents can produce a faster and stronger upwelling and pull
up the nutrients to the surface for the primary producer.

Fifth, special weather events.

More Tropical cyclone occurs and increases mixing. Under global warming, sea water
temperature would increase and make tropical cyclone formation more frequently.
The strong wind brought by tropical cyclone can break the stratification, stronger
Ekman pump (Chen, 2023) and bring the nutrient rich subsurface to the surface for
photosynthesis (Da, 2021). Storms in subtropical oligotrophic ocean can boost
productivity through the same reason but not for the polar region since light is the
limiting factor there and storm would make the sky cloudy (Fujii, 2008).

Reference:
Arctic and Baltic sea ice. (2023, December 19).
https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/indicators/arctic-and-baltic-sea-ice?
activeAccordion=546a7c35-9188-4d23-94ee-005d97c26f2b

Frey, K. E., Comiso, J. C., Cooper, L. W., Grebmeier, J. M., & Stock, L., V. (2021).
Arctic Ocean Primary Productivity: The response of marine algae to climate warming
and sea ice decline. repository.library.noaa.gov. https://doi.org/10.25923/kxhb-dw16

Xiu, P., Chai, F., Curchitser, E.N. et al. Future changes in coastal upwelling
ecosystems with global warming: The case of the California Current
System. Sci Rep 8, 2866 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-21247-7

Climate change indicators: Heavy precipitation | US EPA. (2023, November 2). US

EPA. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-
heavy-precipitation

Jones, N. Coral marches to the poles. Nature (2011).

https://doi.org/10.1038/news.2011.33

Krumhansl, K. A., Okamoto, D. K., Rassweiler, A., Novák, M., Bolton, J. J.,
Cavanaugh, K. C., Connell, S. D., Johnson, C. R., Konar, B., Ling, S. D.,
Micheli, F., Norderhaug, K. M., Pérez‐Matus, A., Sousa-Pinto, I., Reed, D. C.,
Salomon, A. K., Shears, N. T., Wernberg, T., Anderson, R. J., . . . Byrnes, J.
E. K. (2016). Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century.
 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of
America, 113(48), 13785–13790. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606102113

Peng Q, Xie SP, Wang D, Huang RX, Chen G, Shu Y, Shi JR, Liu W. Surface
warming-induced global acceleration of upper ocean currents. Sci Adv. 2022
Apr 22;8(16):eabj8394. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abj8394. Epub 2022 Apr 20.
PMID: 35442733; PMCID: PMC9020668

Chen, F., Lao, Q., Lü, X., Wang, C., Chen, C., Liu, S., & Zhou, X. (2023). A review
of the marine biogeochemical response to typhoons. Marine Pollution
Bulletin, 194, 115408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115408

Da, N. D., Foltz, G. R., & Balaguru, K. (2021). Observed global increases in tropical
Cyclone‐Induced ocean cooling and primary production. Geophysical
Research Letters, 48(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl092574

Fujii, M., & Yamanaka, Y. (2008). Effects of storms on primary productivity and air-
sea CO<sub>2</sub> exchange in the subarctic western North
Pacific: a modeling study. Biogeosciences, 5(4), 1189–1197.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-1189-2008

To whoever who’s reading this

maybe to you, I wrote a very short passage and with repeated concepts (like the
“mixing” that I have repeated for 5+ times) but just shifting different
situations, there was 40+ papers behind cuz I was wondering whether
something r related or nah, whether I should pick support or nah, whether I
should cover my conscience to twist the author’s statement into what I wish to
express.
It’s just tiring to do this, it’s like constipation when typing every single word, but…
anyway,
If you’re reading this consider giving me a higher score? ^_^