Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Stephen Ching

M5, 2023-24

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Background
In September 2012, the HKSAR Government formed the LTHS
Steering Committee (the Steering Committee).

On September 3, 2013, the Steering Committee issued the

consultation document entitled Building Consensus, Building
Homes on the LTHS for three months’ public consultation.

In February 2014, the Steering Committee submitted a report on

the public consultation to the Government.

On December 16, 2014, the Government promulgated the (new)

LTHS and released an Implementation Milestone Paper.

Subsequently, progress reports on the LTHS have been published

annually at year-end.

See https://www.hb.gov.hk/eng/policy/housing/policy/
lths/index.html .
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Housing Challenge

The following housing challenge was characterized by the LTHS in

December 2014:
a serious supply-demand imbalance
housing prices and rents at a level beyond the affordability of
the general public and out of line with our economic
fundamentals
the proliferation of subdivided units (SDU), aka 劏房
long queues for public rental housing (PRH)
The housing challenge has become more severe than ever.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Demographia Median Multiple

The Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey rates

middle-income housing affordability using the Median Multiple,
which is the median house price divided by the median household
income.

The following housing affordability ratings, used by Demographia,

provides an absolute measure of affordability:

Housing Affordability Rating Median Multiple

Affordable 3.0 & Under
Moderately Unaffordable 3.1 to 4.0
Seriously Unaffordable 4.1 to 5.0
Severely Unaffordable 5.1 & Over

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Least Affordable Metropolises by Median Multiple
Worst 2nd Worst 3rd Worst
2010 11.4 (HKG) 9.6 (SYD) 9.5 (YVR)
2011 12.6 (HKG) 10.6 (YVR) 9.2 (SYD)
2012 13.5 (HKG) 9.5 (YVR) 8.3 (SYD)
2013 14.9 (HKG) 10.3 (YVR) 9.2 (SFO)
2014 17.0 (HKG) 10.6 (YVR) 9.8 (SYD)
2015 19.0 (HKG) 12.2 (SYD) 10.8 (YVR)
2016 18.1 (HKG) 12.2 (SYD) 11.8 (YVR)
2017 19.4 (HKG) 12.9 (SYD) 12.6 (YVR)
2018 20.9 (HKG) 12.6 (YVR) 11.7 (SYD)
2019 20.8 (HKG) 11.9 (YVR) 11.0 (SYD)
2020 20.7 (HKG) 13.0 (YVR) 11.8 (SYD)
2021 23.2 (HKG) 15.3 (SYD) 13.3 (YVR)
2022 18.8 (HKG) 13.3 (SYD) 12.0 (YVR)
Hong Kong has been rated the least affordable metropolitan
area since 2010 (not rated before 2010)
Deterioration of affordability in Hong Kong has been a lot
faster than Vancouver and Sydney .
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Housing Authority’s Target

There was a slight change in HA’s target.

Annual Report 2012-13: “Our target is to maintain the average

waiting time (AWT) for PRH at around three years for general
applicants on the Waiting List (WL), and around two years for
elderly one-person applicants.”

Annual Report 2013-14: “Despite the possibility of occasional

departure from the target, we will strive to maintain the average
waiting time target at around three years for general applicants.”

The two-year target for elderly one-person applicants has been

dropped since then.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Average Waiting Time (AWT)

Waiting time refers to the time taken between registration for

PRH and first flat offer, excluding any frozen period during the
application period (e.g. when the applicant has not yet fulfilled the
residence requirements; the applicant has requested to put his/her
application on hold pending arrival of family members for family
reunion; the applicant is imprisoned, etc).

The AWT for general applicants refers to the average of the

waiting time of those general applicants who were housed to PRH
in the past 12 months.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

AWT for PRH Applicants

General (year) Single Elderly (year)

2010 2* 1.1
2011 2* 1.1
2012 2.6 1.3
2013 2.7 1.5
2014 3 1.6
2015 3.3 1.8
2016 3.9 2.3
2017 4.6 2.6
2018 5.1 2.8
2019 5.5 2.9
2020 5.4 3.0

* HA Annual Reports (2009-10 and 2010-11) did not give exact figures.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

AWT for PRH Applicants

Recently, HA has published the AWT figures slightly differently.

General (year) Single Elderly (year)

Dec 2017 4.7 2.6
Dec 2018 5.5 2.9
Dec 2019 5.4 3.0
Dec 2020 5.7 3.4
Dec 2021 6.0 4.0
Dec 2022 5.5 3.9
Dec 2023 5.8 4.0

HA has failed to meet its AWT target since 2015.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Housing Ladder

The Government describes how it addresses the housing challenge

as rebuilding the “housing ladder”:
provide PRH to the grassroots
help the lower to middle-income households meet their home
ownership aspirations
maintain a “healthy” and “stable” private housing market
(comments?)

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Policy Shift
LTHS-1998
set out targets for housing production, home ownership and
access to PRH
Housing Policy Repositioned in 2002
focused on providing PRH to low-income families
ceased the production of subsidized sale flats (SSFs)
minimized intervention in the housing market
(New) LTHS
adopt a supply-led strategy, with a view to averting the
current supply-demand imbalance
increase the supply of public and private housing
ensure the rational use of PRH resources
consider how to expand the forms of subsidized home
ownership
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Adequate and Affordable Housing

Vision of (New) LTHS

help all households in Hong Kong gain access to adequate and
affordable housing

Public Housing
PRH and SSFs are built to satisfy the housing needs of the
relevant sectors of the community and are regarded as
adequate housing
applicants for PRH and SSFs are subject to eligibility criteria
on income and assets, and the rents of PRH and prices of
SSFs are set with regard to the affordability of the target
households

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Adequate and Affordable Housing

Private Housing
units that are not inadequate (i.e. not made up of temporary
structures, not located in non-residential buildings, not shared
with other households, and not subdivided) should be
regarded as adequate
“affordability”: by maintaining a “healthy” and “stable”
private housing market, people could meet their housing needs
in accordance with their means (comments?)

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Principles

Supply-Led
based on projections of long term demand, plan for public
housing construction and make land available for private
housing development
Flexible
forward plans and construction programs should be adjusted
regularly, on the basis of regular reviews of the long term
demand projections that reflect changes in circumstances

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Strategy

(a) plan early for land supply for production of both public and
private housing, with the assistance of a housing demand
projection model
(b) update the projection of long term housing demand and work
out a rolling ten-year housing supply target every year
(c) provide PRH units to serve as a “safety net” for the grassroots
who cannot afford private rental housing
(d) provide Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) flats and other forms
of SSFs to enable the lower to middle-income households to
meet their home ownership aspirations
(e) maintain the healthy and stable development of the private
housing market through securing a stable supply of land and
implementation of demand-side management measures as and
when necessary
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Projection of 10-Year Housing Demand

The model takes into account the following major components in

projecting the number of new housing units required over a period
of 10 years:
(a) net increase in the number of households
(b) those who will be displaced by redevelopment
(c) those who are inadequately housed
(d) miscellaneous factors (mobile residents, non-local students,
non-local buyers)

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Net Increase in the Number of Households

New households are formed arising from marriages, splitting of

existing households, immigration and expatriates coming to
work in Hong Kong.

On the other hand, households may be dissolved due to deaths,

emigration and expatriates returning to their home.

The net change in the number of households leads to changes in

housing demand.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

C&SD’s Domestic Household Projections

The domestic household projections by the Census and

Statistics Department (C&SD) form the basis of assessing the
overall housing demand from the net increase in the number of
households.

C&SD’s domestic household projections are trend-based and

illustrate what would happen if the past trends were to
continue in the future.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

C&SD’s Domestic Household Projections
The projections cover the effects on household formation due to:
demographic developments and factors including:
the ageing population
smaller household size
the increasing number of one-person households
lower fertility rate
longer life expectancy at birth, etc.
factors affecting the movement of Hong Kong residents
such as:
Hong Kong people living and working in the Mainland
Type I babies (whose fathers are Hong Kong permanent
residents and whose mothers are not)
Type II babies (whose parents are both non-Hong Kong
permanent residents)
One-way Permit Holders settling in Hong Kong
expatriates
entry of talents/professionals under various schemes
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Econometric Modeling

In order to reflect possible changes in the household projection

figures under different economic and property market situations, an
econometric modeling exercise is conducted to quantify the
relationship between household formation and economic
performance and housing market situations.

The new projection model will then project the number of

domestic households under different assumptions to produce a
range of projections of long term housing demand.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Households Displaced by Redevelopment

Rehousing households displaced by the redevelopment of old

buildings in the public and the private sectors generates new
housing demand on top of the net increase in the number of
households.

Announced redevelopment plans from the Hong Kong

Housing Authority (HA) and the Hong Kong Housing
Society (HS), as well as past trends in the private sector
(including projects undertaken by the Urban Renewal
Authority (URA)), form the basis for estimating new housing
demand from households displaced by redevelopment.

The annual review of the projection of long term housing demand

will take into account new information on the redevelopment
programmes where available.
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Inadequately Housed Households

As the projection of long term housing demand aims to estimate

the number of units required to satisfy the need for adequate
accommodation in Hong Kong, the model deems households
who are currently inadequately housed as having a need for
new housing units.

In considering what constitutes “inadequately housed”, the model

regards households living in public housing (i.e. PRH and
SSFs such as HOS flats) as adequately housed, since public
housing is built to satisfy the housing needs of the relevant sectors
of the community.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Inadequately Housed Households

As for households living in private housing, the model takes the

following circumstances into account in determining whether
households are inadequately housed:
(a) if the housing unit is made up of temporary structures (e.g.
huts, squatters and roof-top structures)
(b) if the unit is located in a non-residential building (e.g.
commercial and industrial building)
(c) if the unit is shared with other households (e.g. those living
in rooms, cubicles, bedspaces and cocklofts (閣樓))
(d) if the unit is subdivided
(It should be noted that, depending on the actual living conditions,
not all households sharing units with other households or living in
subdivided units are necessarily inadequately housed.)

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Miscellaneous Factors
Apart from the above components, there may also be demands
which the C&SD’s domestic household projections do not cover.

These include private permanent living quarters occupied by

households with mobile residents only, non-local students who
might take up accommodation in Hong Kong, as well as non-local
buyers who take up flats without selling or leasing them.

An item “miscellaneous factors” is added to cover these

components in the projection of housing demand, based on past
trends.

(Mobile residents refer to Hong Kong permanent residents who

have stayed in Hong Kong for at least one month but less than
three months during the six months before or after the reference
time-point, regardless of whether they are in Hong Kong or not at
the reference time-point.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Gross Total Housing Demand

(a) (b) (c) (d)

Net increase Households Inadequately Miscellaneous
in the number + displaced by + housed + factors
of households redevelopment households

(a) + (b) + (c) + (d) =

Gross total housing demand

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Total Housing Supply Target

The results of the long term housing demand projection form the
basis for deriving the ten-year housing supply target. In addition,
there are always a certain number of flats left vacant in the private
sector at any point in time.

The number of vacant units at the beginning of the projection

period, as well as the past average vacancy rate in the private
sector, are taken into account together with the projected gross
total housing demand over the next ten years in projecting the
ten-year housing supply target.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Total Housing Supply Target

Gross total housing demand

Adjustments to take
into account the num-
ber of vacant units in
the private sector

Total housing supply target

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Vacancy Rate

A private residential unit may be vacant for various reasons.

Properties which are not physically occupied, under decoration or
pending occupation by the owner or tenant, etc. are treated as
vacant.

According to the Rating and Valuation Department, there were

about 46,570 vacant private domestic units in Hong Kong as at the
end of 2013. This represents a vacancy rate of about 4.1%, which
is the lowest since 1997, and is considerably lower than the average
vacancy rate (about 5%) in the private sector from 2004 to 2013.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Splits of the Housing Supply Target

The Government will take into account the following factors in

considering the appropriate splits of public/private housing
and PRH/SSFs:
(a) the latest number of PRH applications and the average
waiting time (AWT) for general applicants
(b) aspirations of lower to middle-income households, especially
first-time home buyers and youngsters, for home ownership
(c) the need to ensure stable and healthy development of the
private housing market

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Splits of the Housing Supply Target

(d) the role of SSFs as a buffer between PRH and private housing
(in times of tight supply of private housing, an increase in the
supply of SSFs could help ease demand in the private market
and promote upward mobility for PRH tenants who aspire for
home ownership; on the other hand, when market demand
eases, reducing the supply of SSFs could help stabilise the
private property market)

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Splits of the Housing Supply Target

Leung in his 2014 Policy Address adopted the split between public
and private housing to be 60 : 40.

Lam in her 2018 Policy Address announced to allocate 70% of

housing units on the Government’s newly developed land to public
housing development. Subsequently, LTHS revised the
public/private split from 60 : 40 to 70 : 30 in its Annual Progress
Report 2018.

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Public/Private Split

Public Private Total

2014-15 to 2023-241 280,000 190,000 470,000
2015-16 to 2024-252 290,000 190,000 480,000
2016-17 to 2025-263 280,000 180,000 460,000
2017-18 to 2026-273 280,000 180,000 460,000
2018-19 to 2027-283 280,000 180,000 460,000
2019-20 to 2028-293 315,000 135,000 450,000
2020-21 to 2029-303 301,000 129,000 430,000
2021-22 to 2030-313 301,000 129,000 430,000
2022-23 to 2031-323 301,000 129,000 430,000
2023-24 to 2032-333 301,000 129,000 430,000
2024-25 to 2033-343 308,000 132,000 440,000
1 2014 Policy Address
2 Implementation Milestones December 2014
3 Annual Progress Reports 2015 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

PRH/SSF Split
PRH/GSH1 Other SSFs1 Public
2014-15 to 2023-24 200,000 80,000 280,000
2015-16 to 2024-25 200,000 90,000 290,000
2016-17 to 2025-26 200,000 80,000 280,000
2017-18 to 2026-27 200,000 80,000 280,000
2018-19 to 2027-28 200,000 80,000 280,000
2019-20 to 2028-29 220,000 95,000 315,000
2020-21 to 2029-30 210,000 91,000 301,000
2021-22 to 2030-31 210,000 91,000 301,000
2022-23 to 2031-32 210,000 91,000 301,000
2023-24 to 2032-33 210,000 91,000 301,000
2024-25 to 2033-34 216,000 92,000 308,000
1 With the regularization of Green Form Subsidized Home
Ownership Scheme (GSH) in January 2018, LTHS revised the
categorization of “PRH” and “SSFs” to “PRH/GSH” and “Other
SSFs” in its Annual Progress Report 2018. .
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Land Supply for Public Housing

Target Land Supply1

2015-16 to 2024-25 290,000 254,000
2016-17 to 2025-26 280,000 255,000
2017-18 to 2026-27 280,000 236,000
2018-19 to 2027-28 280,000 237,000
2019-20 to 2028-29 315,000 248,000
2020-21 to 2029-30 301,000 272,000
2021-22 to 2030-31 301,000 316,000
2022-23 to 2031-32 301,000 333,000
2023-24 to 2032-33 301,000 360,000
2024-25 to 2033-34 308,000 410,000
1 The Government has identified land for the construction of public
housing units for the ten-year period, assuming that all sites
identified can be delivered on time for housing construction.
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Supply of First-Hand Private Housing
Supply1 10-Year
Target
(3-4 Years) Extrapolation
2015-16 to 2024-25 190,000 74,0002 (×3 =) 222,000
2016-17 to 2025-26 180,000 86,0002 (×3 =) 258,000
2017-18 to 2026-27 180,000 93,0002 (×3 =) 279,000
2018-19 to 2027-28 180,000 97,000 (×3 =) 291,000
2019-20 to 2028-29 135,000 93,000 (×2.54 =) 232,500
2020-21 to 2029-30 129,000 93,000 (×2.54 =) 232,500
2021-22 to 2030-31 129,000 92,000 (×2.54 =) 230,000
2022-23 to 2031-32 129,000 94,000 (×2.54 =) 235,000
2023-24 to 2032-33 129,000 95,000 (×2.54 =) 237,500
2024-25 to 2033-34 132,000 107,000 (×2.54 =) 267,500
1 The Government estimated the supply of first-hand private
residential flats for the coming three to four years.
2 The actual newly completed private residential flats are 64,750

for 2015-16 to 2018-19 (c.f. 64,632 new units from 2015 to 2018),
66,995 from 2016 to 2019, and 73,289 from 2017 to 2020.
4 LTHS revised the public/private split from 60 : 40 to 70 : 30 in

APR 2018.
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

5-Year Estimates for Total Public Housing Production
Putting the five APRs together shows that the trends of steady
increases in total public housing production claimed by the
Government in each APR have been overestimated.

Annual Progress Report

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
12-13 to 16-17 75,800 68,9001 - - -
13-14 to 17-18 74,500 72,800 72,8002 - -
14-15 to 18-19 90,300 81,400 81,400 80,4003 -
15-16 to 19-20 97,100 93,100 91,900 91,200 89,2004
16-17 to 20-21 - 94,500 94,600 94,100 87,800
17-18 to 21-22 - - 100,300 99,700 97,700
18-19 to 22-23 - - - 100,800 101,000
19-20 to 23-24 - - - - 100,700
1 Actual 67,132; 2 actual 67,679; 3 actual 80,401; 4 actual 85,200
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

5-Year Estimates for Total Public Housing Production

Annual Progress Report

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
15-16 to 19-20 89,2001 - - - -
16-17 to 20-21 87,800 83,600 - - -
17-18 to 21-22 97,700 97,400 96,500 - -
18-19 to 22-23 101,000 98,000 98,100 - -
19-20 to 23-24 100,700 97,300 85,900 76,800 -
20-21 to 24-25 - 101,300 94,600 95,200 93,800
21-22 to 25-26 - - 106,900 112,200 109,600
22-23 to 26-27 - - - 105,500 109,200
23-24 to 27-28 - - - 127,700 127,600
24-25 to 28-29 - - - - 141,800
1 Actual 85,200
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Number of Residential Units Completed

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Usable Floor Area of Private Residential Units Completed

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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)

Keypoints
LTHS
is a supply-led strategy
has been effective in increasing supply of housing (both public
and private)
has provided estimates of land supply and housing supply in
all APRs, implying that the total housing supply targets can
be met in the next 10 years
has overestimated both 5-year public housing production and
3-4 years of supply of first-hand private housing in its APRs
is becoming a “supply-misled” strategy
has not been effective in addressing the supply-demand
imbalance (both public and private)
The last observation implies that the demand for housing has
increased faster than the supply. However, unlike supply, demand
can’t be observed directly. The next topic discusses how to analyze
demand, within the context of LTHS. .
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Stephen Ching Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS)