Gartner IT Infrastructure, Operations & Cloud Strategies Conference

09 – 12 December 2019 / Las Vegas

The Future of Enterprise

Data Centers — What’s Next

Henrique Cecci

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How IT Infrastructures Are Evolving?

British Airways Concorde Boeing 787 Dreamliner

First Flight: March 1969 First Flight: December 2009

Simplified
Intelligent
Automated
Resilient
Efficient
Critical

4,143 miles 100 1,350 mph 16.7 L/100 km 8,464 miles 242 595 mph 2.6 L/100 km

Source: National Museum of Flight at East Fortune Airfield, Scotland Source: Boeing
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Key Issues

1. What is the future of enterprise data centers?

2. What are the key trends shaping the future of data centers?
3. What technologies and trends will have the biggest impact on data
centers in the next five years?

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Key Issues

1. What is the future of enterprise data centers?

2. What are the key trends shaping the future of data centers?
3. What technologies and trends will have the biggest impact on data
centers in the next five years?

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A common question…

Will Data Centers

Evaporate Into the Cloud?

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How Data Centers Are Evolving per Site Class
Worldwide (Thousand, Sites) North America
181 181 175 172 170 167 165 163
451 445 440 434 427 421 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7
415 411 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7
2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5

0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

15.1 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Western Europe
6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9
5.9 118 112 112 107 102 98 –– Rack/Comp.Room
93 90

1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0
–– Midsize DC
3.0 3.0 3.1
1.1 1.1 –– Enterprise DC
1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
–– Large DC
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Asia/Pacific
Typical Number
Rack Square Square-Foot 71 72 73 74 75 77 78 80
Site Class of Racks of
Range Feet Range
Equipment 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6
Rack/Computer Room 10 1-25 200 Up to 750
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
Midsize DC 50 26-100 1,000 Up to 3,000
Enterprise DC 250 101-500 5,000 Up to 15,000 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Large DC 1,000 500+ 20,000 15,000+
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: “Forecast: Data Centers, Worldwide, 2016-2023, 2019 Update” 19 August 2019 (G00392273)
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Enterprise IT Spending — Data Center Systems1
United States
Worldwide (Billion USD)

Thousands
217
50
81 80 82 84 85 85
215
212
210 210 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
205
Western Europe
50

Thousands
41 39 40 39 40 40
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

China
50

Thousands
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 34 35 37 38 39

1Data 0
Center Systems (CAPEX): servers, storage, communications equipment and
unified communications 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: “Forecast: Enterprise IT Spending by Vertical Industry Market, Worldwide, 2017-2023, 3Q19 Update” 31 October 2019 (G00383564)
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Cloud Growth Rates Are Changing
2018 2023

18% 18% Poland

United
States
Spending on Public Cloud Services
Percentage of Total IT Enterprise

Canada
Netherlands
United United
Kingdom France
States
Brazil
Canada Australia Germany
United China
9% Kingdom
9%
Russia Turkey
Netherlands Germany Italy India
South Korea Mexico
Brazil
France Spain
South Korea
Indonesia
China Russia Spain Japan
Argentina
Indonesia Turkey
Japan
0% 0%
0% 15% 30% 0% 15% 30%
Public Cloud Spending Growth Public Cloud Spending Growth

Sources: “Forecast: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide, 2017-2023, 2Q19 Update” (G00377253)
and “Forecast: Enterprise IT Spending by Vertical Industry Market, Worldwide, 2017-2023, 2Q19 Update” (G00383563)
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Multiple Forces Are Affecting Data Centers
Macro: Technologies: (Partial List)
• Social • Cloud Computing
• Technological • Edge Computing
• Economic • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Environmental • Machine Learning (ML)
• Political • Software-Defined, Automation, AIOps
• Legal • In-Memory Computing
• Compute Accelerators, Next-Gen Memory
• Serverless Infrastructure
• Composable Infrastructure
Data • Programmable Infrastructure
•
Business: Centers Hyperconvergence
• Next-Gen APIs, Digital Ecosystems
• Growth
• OS Containers
• Speed
• Intelligent Infrastructure
• Agility
• Next-Gen Power, New Batteries
• Innovation
• Liquid Cooling
• Efficiency
• Consumption-Based models
• Dynamic Optimization Technology
• 5G, Low Earth Orbit Satellites (LEO). IoT
• Intent-Based Networking, NVMe, NVMe-oF
• Micro/Nano Data Centers, Prefab Modular
• Green IT, Sustainability, Regulatory Controls
… continue

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In Our Complex and Ever-Changing World,

Enterprise Data Centers

Must Adapt and Evolve
(Fast!)

Isolated, Complex, Hybrid, Intelligent,

Manual, Inefficient … Automated, Efficient…

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Key Issues

1. What is the future of enterprise data centers?

2. What are the key trends shaping the future of data centers?
3. Which technologies and trends will have the biggest impact on data
centers in the next five years?

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Key Trends Shaping the Future of Data Centers

Past Centralized/On-Premises Distributed/Hybrid IT Future

Internally Complex Simplified and Standardized

Manual Intelligent and Automated

On-Premises

Tier-Level design Always Available

Cloud
Primary Site

Large, Sparse and Horizontal Smaller, Denser and Vertical

Edge
Colocation

Inefficient and Costly Efficient and Cost-Effective

On-Premises

Slow to Adapt Agile and Flexible

On-Premises Colocation
Interconnected Multiconnected
Secondary Site/DR
Conventional Greener and Sustainable

Unregulated Regulated

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Polling Question 1 of 2
Polling Type: Multiple Choice (Choose Multiple)
Which type(s) of data center(s) is your organization using today?
1. Enterprise Data Center(s)/On-Premises
2. Public Cloud
3. Colocation
4. Edge
5. Managed Services/Hosting

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Polling Question 2 of 2
Polling Type: Multiple Choice (Choose Multiple)
Which type(s) of data center(s) will your organization be using in
the next five years?
1. Enterprise Data Center(s)/On-Premises
2. Public Cloud
3. Colocation
4. Edge
5. Managed Services/Hosting
6. I Do Not Know

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IT Infrastructure evolves based on
cumulative advancements

Data Center Outsourcing Mobile Computing Low-Earth Orbit (LEO)

Client/Server Cloud Computing IoT Edge Computing

1945 1949 1963 1985 1998 2006 2011 2014 2016 2017 2018

Digital Computers Colocation Serverless 5G

Hyperconverged
Infrastructure
Computer Rooms Microservices

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Hybrid IT Has Become Mainstream

Cloud
Edge

On-Prem Cloud Edge

Colocation

On-Prem On-Prem
On-Prem
Colocation
Colocation Cloud
On-Premises

Colocation

SaaS
Edge Location IoT
Customer DNS Provider
Branch
IaaS
IaaS
Data
Data
Center
Center DNS
Data Branch
Center
SaaS Branch
Branch
IaaS SaaS

IT Infrastructures
Branch
PaaS SaaS
CDN

Are Now Everywhere User Remote

SaaS
PaaS

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 “Everything Should
Be Made as Simple
as Possible, but
Not Simpler.”

Albert Einstein

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 “Data Centers
Should Be Made as
Simple as Possible,
but Not Simpler.”

Albert Einstein

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Great I&O Leaders simplify complexity to
bring clarity of vision, speed, cost-savings,
security and direction.

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Modularization and Standardization Enable
Simplification and Automation
From Facilities For each Module:
Modules • Power Systems
• UPSs
Zones • PDUs
• CRAC Units
• Condensers
Pods
• Chillers

Application and
Containers
OS
Virtualization and
Containers
Hyperconverged + Software-Defined
Infrastructure Infrastructure
To Workloads

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Automation Is Now Everywhere

Coordination-Oriented
Heuristic Automation and
Business Situationally Dependent
IT Service Orchestration AIOps
Service Cross-Silo
Automation
DevOps
IT Process
Cloud Services Automation
Automation
Cloud Container
Mgmt. Mgmt. ARA
IT Service
Automation Continuous
Incident Cloud Configuration
Migration Continuous Delivery Automation
Resolution

Infrastructure/System Automation UEM

IT Task Network Virtual Enterprise
Automation Network Server Client
Config. and Network Mobility
Config. Auto. Life Cycle Mgmt.
Change Configuration Mgmt. Functionally Specific
Simple: Fixed Sequence
Configuration Compliance
Provisioning Patch … Technically Focused
Assess. and Audit

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Smaller, Denser and Vertical

Past 2-4 kW/rack Air Cooling Traditional Tier-Level Distributed Standard

Hot/Cold Isle < 2,000 lb./rack Load Traditional (e.g., HDDs)

Power Cooling Design Space IT Load

Today Containment Modular Greater Vertical Use Virtualized

8-12 kW/rack
Intelligent Systems Standardized Modular Growth Converged
Free Cooling Efficiency-Driven DCIM/HDIM Hyperconverged
Liquid Cooling Taller Racks New Tech (e.g., SDDs)
Open Standards
> 3,000 lb./rack

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Hybrid Allows New Approaches to Availability

Secondary
Public
Data Centers Primary Cloud IaaS
Data Centers

Alternate
Service
SaaS
Colocation Centers

Edge

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Key Issues

1. What is the future of enterprise data centers?

2. What are the key trends shaping the future of data centers?
3. Which technologies will have the biggest impact on data centers in
the next five years?

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Key Technologies and Trends Impacting Data
Centers in the Next Five Years
Social, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal
Macro Trends
• AI/ML Automation, AIOps
• Hybrid Cloud Business Trends • Intelligent Infrastructure
• Edge Computing • Dynamic Optimization Technology
• Colocation Cloud Interconnection • Intent-Based Networking
Hybrid IT

Speed/Agility Intelligence
• 5G (6G?), Low Earth Orbit Satellites (LEO) • Software-Defined, Hyperconvergence
• Compute Accelerators (GPU, DNN, FPGA) Data • Next-Gen APIs, Digital Ecosystems
Data Center
• Next-Gen Memory Center • Next-Gen Power, New Batteries
• NVMe, NVMe-oF • Liquid Cooling
Scalability Efficiency

Sustainability
• Low and Zero Carbon Technologies
• Consumption-Based models • Micro Grids
• Micro/Nano Data Centers, Modular, Prefab Business Trends • Fuel Cells
• Serverless Computing • Intelligent Power and Cooling
Macro Trends

Growth, Speed, Agility, Innovation, Efficiency

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Macro Trends Are Shaping Data Centers
Urbanization Economic Growth
Megacities (10+ million people)
1970 1990 2019 2025 2030 Large Data Centers Growth
3 10 33 39 43 Asia/Pacific +9.7% CAGR 2018-2023
North America +1.0% CAGR 2018-2023
Source: United Nations, DESA Source: “Forecast: Data Centers, Worldwide, 2016-2023, 2019 Update” (G00392273)

Regulatory Government Industry Regional The Evolving Patchwork of Privacy Laws

CJIS 23 NYCRR Part 500 BIR 2012 (Netherlands)

Controls
CNSSI 1253 CDSA C5 (Germany)
DFARS CFTC 1.31 (US) CCSL/IRAP (Australia)
DoD DISA L2, L3, L5 DPP (UK) CS Mark (Gold) (Japan)
DoE 10 CFR Part 810 EBA (EU) Cyber Essentials Plus (UK)
Security, Privacy, EAR (US Export Adm.Reg.) FACT (UK) Canadian Privacy Laws
FedRAMP FCA (UK) DJCP (China)
Compliance, FIPS 140-2 FDA CFR Title 21 Part 11 EN 301 549 (EU)
IRS 1075 FERPA ENS (Spain)
Transparency, ITAR FFIEC (US) ENISA IAF (EU)
Sustainability NIST 800-171
NIST CSF
FINRA 4511
FISC (Japan)
EU-Model-Clauses
EU-U.S. Privacy Shield
Section 508 VPATS FSA (Denmark) GB 18030 (China)
GLBA GDPR (EU)
Where the data will GxP G-Cloud (UK)
HIPAA/HITECH IDW PS 951 (Germany)
be stored? HITRUST ISMS (Korea)
MARS-E IT Grundschutz Workbook (Germany)
MPAA LOPD (Spain)
Who owns the data? NERC
PCI DSS
MeitY (India)
MTCS (Singapore)
SEC 17a-4 My Number (Japan)
SOX NZ CC Framework (New Zealand) Comprehensive Data Protection Law Enacted
How the data will be TruSight PASF (UK)
PDPA (Argentina) Pending Bill or Initiative to Enact Law
secured? TRUCS (China) Source: David Banisar — Aug.2019 No Initiatives or No Information

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Business Change Is Accelerating

100%
79% 80% 80% 78%

50%

0%
Change in Change to the Change in Change to the
Customer Base Value Proposition Capabilities Profit Model

Gartner 2018 CEO Survey: Base: Likely to make changes, n = 290

Question: What degree of change do you expect in each of the aspects of your business model?
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Speed and Acceleration Define Success

… and Data Centers are “the Engine” of Business

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The Next-Gen IT Infrastructure Is Coming

Template-Driven Self-Healing Intent-Based

AI-Driven Operations Intelligence Layer

Intelligence
Hybrid Cloud Integration Integrated Orchestration and Automation Services

Next 5 Years
Automation
Software Defined (Programmable) PaaS

Programmability

Containers and K8s Abstraction Layer

Composable Public Cloud
Infrastructure
Infrastructure Infrastructure
Compute Accelerators Traditional Converged/
Next-Gen Memory Infrastructure Hyperconverged
Liquid Cooling

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Action Plan for I&O Leaders

Monday Morning:
• Start developing a hybrid IT workload placement strategy, if you didn’t yet.
• Expand I&O skill sets, practices and procedures to accommodate unbiased, hybrid IT operations.
• Establish a long-term focus on efficiency, agility and innovation.
Next 90 Days:
• Prioritize simplification and standardization efforts.
• Strive for vertical density by ensuring optimal compute capacity per kilowatt.
• Embark on a journey toward driving automation in I&O.
Next 12 Months:
• Instill a culture of continuous resilience improvement.
• Champion the role that technology can play in regulatory compliance programs.
• Never sit idle. IT infrastructures will continue to evolve faster than ever before!

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Recommended Gartner Research

 The Future of Enterprise Data Centers — What’s Next

Henrique Cecci (G00384249)
 Infrastructure Is Everywhere: The Evolution of Data Centers
David Cappuccio and Bob Gill (G00384194)
 Top 10 Technologies That Will Drive the Future of Infrastructure and Operations
Arun Chandrasekaran and Andrew Lerner (G00430091)
 Data Center Infrastructure Primer for 2019
Philip Dawson and John McArthur (G00710096)
 Simplify Intelligent Infrastructure by Using Workload Architectures
Philip Dawson (G00386798)
 Hype Cycle for Infrastructure Strategies, 2019
Philip Dawson and Nathan Hill (G00388022)
For information, please contact your Gartner representative.
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