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The Mean1
The Mean1
decisions about which assets to invest in. It's based on two key concepts: "mean,"
which represents the average return on an investment, and "variance," which
measures how much the returns of an investment fluctuate around this average.
Mean (Average Return): Imagine you have several different investments, like
stocks or bonds. The mean return is the average return you expect to get from
each investment over a certain period, like a year.
Balancing Risk and Return: The mean-variance model helps investors find the
best balance between risk and return. It does this by considering the expected
return and variance of each investment option. Investors aim to maximize their
expected return while minimizing their risk (variance).
Efficient Frontier: The mean-variance model also plots all possible combinations
of investments to find the optimal portfolio – the one that offers the highest
expected return for a given level of risk, or the lowest risk for a given level of
return. This collection of optimal portfolios is called the "efficient frontier."
Sure, let's consider a simplified example using two stocks: Stock A and Stock B.
Mean (Average Return):
Stock A: Expected annual return of 10%
Stock B: Expected annual return of 8%
Variance (Risk):
Stock A: Variance of 15% (high fluctuations)
Stock B: Variance of 5% (low fluctuations)
Now, let's say you're considering investing in a portfolio that includes both Stock
A and Stock B. You have a certain amount of money to invest and need to decide
how much to allocate to each stock.
Using the mean-variance model, you want to find the optimal allocation that
maximizes your expected return while minimizing your risk.
We can also connect all possible combinations of Stock A and Stock B to form
the efficient frontier.
Now, let's say you're comfortable with a certain level of risk and want to find the
portfolio that offers the highest return within that risk level.
For instance, if you're okay with a variance (risk) of 10%, you might find that a
portfolio allocation of 70% Stock A and 30% Stock B lies on the efficient frontier
and offers the highest expected return within your desired risk level.