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• Loose staples at a significant discount vs. kirana stores: We analysed 12 loose staple
items (dal, rice, wheat, sugar, etc.) from offline retailers and local kirana stores and PRICE VS. SENSEX
found that DMart offers 4% higher discount than Reliance Smart. Kirana stores’ pricing
280
is at 15% / 12% premium to DMart / Reliance Smart.
240
• DMart and Reliance’s online stores offer higher discounts: We looked at 53 SKUs
across DMart/Reliance Smart’s offline/online stores and found that the latter offered 200
1%/7% higher discounts while 19% / 37% SKUs had similar pricing. Also, DMart stores 160
offered 5% higher discounts than Reliance Smart stores.
120
• DMart Ready’s fresh products were expensive: Our analysis of fresh fruits a vegetables
80
suggests that Big Basket (291) has the highest number of SKUs followed by DMart (60)
and JioMart (48). Across 23 SKUs, DMart Ready’s pricing was at 19% / 11% premium to 40
JioMart/Big Basket. Big Basket was at an 8% premium to Jio Mart across all SKUs. Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
• DMart’s private-label value-for-money highest: We analysed 38 private-label Avenue Super BSE Sensex
categories and found DMart Ready offered highest discount in 32, JioMart in 5 (vs. Source: Phillip Capital India Research
branded products). For 20 common SKUs, average discounts given by DMart Ready /
JioMart / Grofers / Big Basket / Amazon Pantry were 38% / 31% / 22% / 20% / 19%. Ankit Kedia, Research Analyst
(+ 9122 6246 4122) akedia@phillipcapital.in
Outlook and valuation: We maintain our BUY rating with a DCF-based target of Rs 3,640.
DMart has created a strong moat by offering ‘Every Day Low Prices’, driving high customer Rahul Jain, Research Associate
footfalls. Best-in-class store economics, aggressive store expansion, right product mix, and rjain@phillipcapital.in
low inventory days give it an edge over competitors. For our detailed IC report Click here.
In Mumbai, DMart has expanded deeper in high-density regions, with 40% DMart
Ready stores across seven key areas in Mumbai. Borivali West has the highest
concentration of DMart Ready stores, followed by Andheri East, Kandivali West, and
Malad West. Since DMart already has existing stores in these areas, it understands
the micro-market’s needs and potential demand, which helps it to populate DMart
Ready stores to meet incremental demand and ease pressure from its existing loyal
brick-and-mortar store customers as they slowly migrate to the company’s online
stores. Further, 30% of DMart Ready stores are across six pin codes in Mumbai.
DMart Ready store count across cities 40% of DMart Ready across 7 key locations across Mumbai
18 17
250
16
195 14 13 13
200
12 11
150 10 9
8 8
8
100
6
50 31 26 27 4
15 13 5 3 2
0 0
30% of DMart Ready stores across 6 pin codes in Mumbai % pin codes serviced for home delivery by DMart Ready
14 13 60%
12 49%
12 50%
40%
10 9 38%
40%
8 8
8 7 30%
22%
6 18%
20%
4
10%
2
0%
0 Mumbai Ahmedabad Pune City Bengaluru Hyderabad
400067 400092 400104 400097 400064 400012 /Thane* City
Monthly visits (millions) from desktop and mobiles for online grocery delivery
players
14 JioMart Big Basket Grofers
12
10
0
July'20 Aug'20 Sep'20 Oct'20 Nov'20 Dec'20 Jan'21 Feb'21 Mar'21 Apr'21 May'21
Source: Similarweb
Key observations
• SKUs
o Big Basket’s SKU count was the highest across 25 product categories while
JioMart had the lowest count across most of categories.
o JioMart SKU count was half of Grofers and DMart Ready’s, and didn’t offer
any significant choice to customers.
o Across 25 categories, Big Basket has 10,000+ SKUs, JioMart had mere 823,
while DMart Ready had 1,697 and Grofers 1,850. We believe keeping
limited number of SKU of well-known brands improves customer experience
and decision making.
o We believe DMart Ready is focused on keeping SKUs that cater to more
than 90% of its customer needs, unlike other retailers who focus on keeping
high gross-margin SKUs.
• Brands
o Big Basket had the highest brand count in all 25 categories while JioMart
offered lowest number of brands in 24 categories.
o On average, DMart had 16 brands across each category compared to mere
7.6 brands per category for Jio Mart, 57 for Big Basket and 15 for Grofers.
• Discounting over MRP
o DMart Ready, Grofers, and JioMart offered the highest discounting in 18, 5,
and 2 categories respectively.
o Clearly, DMart is price competitive, even in categories where it does not
offer highest discount.
o Only in cooking oil, DMart Ready had the lowest discounts due to the lowest
number of SKUs for olive oil, where discounting was very high.
• Inclusion of private labels across all categories
o Total SKUs for Grofers, Big Basket, DMart Ready and JioMart jumped by
27%, 11%, 19% and 16%.
o In terms of discounting, Grofers, Big Basket, DMart Ready, and JioMart
offered highest discount in 10, 1, 12, and 2 categories respectively.
o Grofers benefited the most due to deep discounting for its private label
collection.
Key observations
• DMart vs. Reliance Smart: Half of the products were within a 5% deviation of
each other. Overall DMart offered 4% higher discount across all products
compared to Reliance Smart. Reliance Smart was cheaper in only 4 out of 12
products.
• Kirana comparison: Kirana stores’ prices were at a 15% premium over DMart’s
and 12% over Reliance Smart’s across the 12 loose staple products. Kirana stores’
products were priced at a premium to DMart stores across all 12 products, at a
discount in two products compared to Reliance Smart.
Key observations
• DMart vs. DMart Ready
o 57% products were within a 5% price deviation
o 26% / 17% of products had a deviation 5-10% / >10%.
o Overall DMart Ready offered 1% higher discount across all SKUs.
o In 50% of the products, DMart Stores offer higher discounts than DMart
Ready; pricing was similar across both channels in 19%.
o In dairy and packed food, DMart stores offer higher discounts; in other
categories DMart Ready was more competitive.
Key observations
• Total SKUs
o DMart Ready / JioMart / Big Basket / Grofers had total SKUs of 60 / 48 / 291
/ 17.
o Grofers had very limited SKUs and basic products.
o DMart Ready and JioMart covered essential fruits and vegetables, but Big
Basket has gone a couple of steps further with the addition of exotic,
organic, and pre-chopped produce.
• Price comparison
o All other players were more price competitive than DMart Ready.
o Across 23 SKUs, DMart Ready’s pricing was at 19%/11% premium to
JioMart/Big Basket.
o Only in 1 out of 5 SKUs was DMart Ready’s pricing at a discount to
JioMart/Big Basket.
o For the limited number of SKUs offered by Grofers, DMart Ready’s products
were at a 26% premium.
o Big Basket was at an 8% premium compared with Jio Mart across all the
SKUs.
Key observations
• Common products: Among 20 common SKUs across all platforms, DMart Ready,
JioMart, Grofers, Big Basket and Amazon Pantry offered an average discount of
38%, 31%, 22%, 20% and 19% respectively, compared to branded products.
• Discounting: Among 38 private-label products, DMart Ready offered the highest
discount in 32 products, followed by JioMart in 5 products. Grofers, Big Basket,
and Amazon Pantry offered the lowest discounting in 14, 9, and 11 products.
• Private label portfolio: Staples (dals, pulses, spices, flour, etc.) and household
(cleaning supplies, washing supplies, freshener, etc.) categories remain a key
focus within the private label portfolio across all platforms.
Key observations
• Total discount: DMart Ready has consistently offered 20%+ discount across last 8
months followed by JioMart offering 19% discount. Overall discounting has
increased for Amazon Pantry in last 2 months at 20% compared to 15% discount
in the past months. Discount at Flipkart has increased from 7% to 13% on last 2
months while Big Basket and Grofers discounting has remained steady at c.14%
each.
• Fulfilment rate: DMart has been able to maintain its high discounting at a
fulfilment rate of 95%+ whereas Amazon Pantry and JioMart stood far behind at
75% and 66% respectively in last 2 months. Amazon Pantry and JioMart faced
fulfilment issues in dairy and personal care respectively. Big Basket and Grofers
continue to perform at 90% levels while Flipkart was at 75%.
• Pricing range: DMart Ready and JioMart offered the highest discounting in about
half the SKUs measured. On the other hand, Big Basket and Flipkart provided the
least amount of discounting in 20% and 10% of SKUs respectively.
• Overall category discounting: Staple and personal care are the key categories
driving traffic to the platforms, with total discounting of 21% and 20%
respectively. Over the last two months, we have seen higher discounting in dairy
products, while it has declined for drinks and beverages.
• Top-3 discounters per category (highest to lowest)
o Dairy: Amazon Pantry (low fulfilment), Grofers, DMart Ready
o Staples: DMart Ready, JioMart, Grofers
o Packaged food: DMart Ready, JioMart, Amazon Pantry (low fulfilment)
o Beverages: DMart Ready, JioMart, Amazon Pantry
o Personal care: DMart Ready, JioMart (low fulfilment), Amazon Pantry
o Household: DMart Ready, JioMart, Big Basket
Fulfilment rate is the highest for DMart while JioMart and Overall DMart, JioMart offer lowest price for 50% of
Amazon Pantry have issues inventory
Amazon Pantry Grofers Amazon Pantry Grofers
Big Basket D-Mart Big Basket D-Mart
JioMart Flipkart Supermart JioMart Flipkart Supermart
110% 80%
100% 70%
90% 60%
50%
80%
40%
70%
30%
60%
20%
50% 10%
40% 0%
-10%
Discounting is highest for personal care and staples DMart / JioMart offers highest discounts across categories
Dairy Staples Amazon Pantry Grofers
Packaged Food Drinks & Beverages Big Basket D-Mart
Personal Care Household JioMart Flipkart Supermart
30% 25%
25% 20%
20% 15%
15% 10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
15-Oct 15-Nov 15-Dec 15-Jan 15-Feb 15-Mar 15-Apr 15-May 15-Jun
Dairy: Amazon, Grofers, DMart offer highest discounts Staples: Highly competitive category with 20%+ discount
Amazon Pantry Grofers Amazon Pantry Grofers
Big Basket D-Mart Big Basket D-Mart
JioMart Flipkart Supermart JioMart Flipkart Supermart
14% 40%
12% 35%
10% 30%
8% 25%
6% 20%
4% 15%
2% 10%
0% 5%
-2%
Packed Food: DMart/ JioMart lead discounting Beverages: Overall discounting has reduced in last 2 months
Amazon Pantry Grofers Amazon Pantry Grofers
Big Basket D-Mart Big Basket D-Mart
JioMart Flipkart Supermart JioMart Flipkart Supermart
30% 25%
25% 20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5% 5%
0%
0%
-5%
Personal Care: DMart, JioMart discount offered is 26%+ Household products: DMart, JioMart offer high discounts
Amazon Pantry Grofers Amazon Pantry Grofers
Big Basket D-Mart Big Basket D-Mart
JioMart Flipkart Supermart JioMart Flipkart Supermart
35% 30%
30% 25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
Valuation
DMart: DCF valuation assumptions (Rs mn)
WACC 10.4%
PV of FCF 588859
Terminal Growth rate % 6.5%
Terminal value 98,30,045
PV of Terminal Value 1744540
Total value of firm 2333400
add: investments/associates 4023
less net debt (cash) -20240
Total Equity Value 23,57,663
Number of shares outstanding (m) 648
Value per share (Rs) 3,640
Source: Phillip Capital India Research
Financials (Standalone)
Income Statement Cash Flow
Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net sales 2,37,872 3,01,926 4,33,474 5,47,857 Pre-tax profit 15,448 20,383 33,560 43,240
Growth, % -3.5 26.9 43.6 26.4 Depreciation 3,714 4,775 5,999 7,431
Other income 0 373 447 537 Chg in working capital -1,203 -809 -8,247 -7,466
Total income 2,37,872 3,02,299 4,33,922 5,48,394 Total tax paid -2,561 -5,300 -8,726 -11,242
Raw material expenses -2,03,563 -2,56,637 -3,67,586 -4,64,035 Other operating activities -1,543 -1,417 -981 -929
Employee expenses -4,951 -5,991 -7,309 -8,917 Cash flow from operating activities 13,855 17,632 21,606 31,034
Other Operating expenses -11,940 -15,930 -20,448 -25,700 Capital expenditure -19,677 -21,259 -26,253 -29,688
EBITDA 17,417 23,741 38,578 49,742 Chg in investments 21 7,000 1,000 0
Growth, % -17.9 36.3 62.5 28.9 Other investing activities 9,251 1,831 1,415 1,385
Margin, % 7.3 7.9 8.9 9.1 Cash flow from investing activities -10,405 -12,428 -23,838 -28,303
Depreciation -3,714 -4,775 -5,999 -7,431 Free cash flow (ex-Lease Liability)
EBIT 13,704 18,966 32,580 42,311 Equity raised/(repaid) 0 0 0 0
Growth, % -23.1 38.4 71.8 29.9 Debt raised/(repaid) -1,342 0 0 0
Margin, % 5.8 6.3 7.5 7.7 Dividend (incl. tax)
Interest paid -345 -414 -434 -456 Other financing activities -61 -414 -434 -456
Other Non-Operating Income 2,089 1,831 1,415 1,385 Cash flow from financing activities -1,403 -414 -434 -456
Non-recurring Items 0 0 0 0 Net chg in cash 2,047 4,790 -2,667 2,275
Pre-tax profit 15,448 20,383 33,560 43,240
Tax provided -3,795 -5,300 -8,726 -11,242 Valuation Ratios
Profit after tax 11,653 15,083 24,835 31,998 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Others (Minorities, Associates) Per Share data
Net Profit 11,653 15,083 24,835 31,998 EPS (INR) 18.0 23.3 38.3 49.4
Growth, % -13.7 29.4 64.6 28.8 Growth, % (13.7) 29.4 64.6 28.8
Net Profit (adjusted) 11,653 15,083 24,835 31,998 Book NAV/share (INR) 190.0 213.2 251.6 301.0
Unadj. shares (m) 647.8 647.8 647.8 647.8 FDEPS (INR) 18.0 23.3 38.3 49.4
CEPS (INR) 23.7 30.7 47.6 60.9
Balance Sheet CFPS (INR) 21.4 27.2 33.4 47.9
Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E DPS (INR) - - - -
Cash & bank 14,320 19,110 16,444 18,719 Return ratios
Debtors 721 828 1,189 1,502 Return on assets (%) 8.7 10.1 13.9 15.0
Inventory 21,673 22,362 32,098 40,566 Return on equity (%) 9.5 10.9 15.2 16.4
Loans & advances 7,100 8,165 9,390 10,799 Return on capital employed (%) 9.4 10.9 15.1 16.3
Other current assets 258 284 312 343 Turnover ratios
Total current assets 44,072 50,749 59,433 71,929 Asset turnover (x) 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.6
Investments 15,108 8,108 7,108 7,108 Sales/Total assets (x) 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.9
Gross fixed assets 78,953 99,512 1,24,765 1,53,252 Sales/Net FA (x) 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.3
Less: Depreciation -11,744 -16,519 -22,518 -29,949 Working capital/Sales (x) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Add: Capital WIP 10,062 10,762 11,762 12,962 Receivable days 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9
Net fixed assets 77,271 93,754 1,14,009 1,36,266 Inventory days 31.3 26.6 22.9 24.2
Non-current assets 13 13 13 13 Payable days 7.8 7.3 6.6 7.0
Total assets 1,36,464 1,52,625 1,80,563 2,15,316 Working capital days 24.4 20.2 17.1 18.1
Liquidity ratios
Current liabilities 8,588 9,598 12,631 15,312 Current ratio (x) 5.1 4.5 4.0 4.0
Provisions 1,349 1,416 1,487 1,561 Quick ratio (x) 5.1 4.5 4.0 4.0
Total current liabilities 9,937 11,014 14,117 16,873 Interest cover (x) 39.7 45.8 75.0 92.8
Total Debt 2,955 2,955 2,955 2,955 Dividend cover (x) - - - -
Deferred Tax Liabilities 519 519 519 519 Total debt/Equity (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total liabilities 13,411 14,489 17,592 20,347 Net debt/Equity (%) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
Paid-up capital 6,478 6,478 6,478 6,478 Valuation
Reserves & surplus 1,16,575 1,31,658 1,56,493 1,88,491 PER (x) 184.4 142.5 86.5 67.2
Shareholders’ equity 1,23,053 1,38,136 1,62,971 1,94,969 PEG (x) - y-o-y growth 10.2 6.1 2.3 1.4
Total equity & liabilities 1,36,464 1,52,625 1,80,563 2,15,316 Price/Book (x) 17.5 15.6 13.2 11.0
Source: DMart, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Yield (%) - - - -
EV/Net sales (x) 8.9 7.0 4.9 3.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 122.1 89.7 55.3 42.8
3000
B (TP 3320)
B (TP 3320)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
J-18 A-18 D-18 F-19 M-19 A-19 N-19 F-20 M-20 A-20 N-20 F-21 M-21
Rating Methodology
We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one
year. We have different threshold for large market capitalisation stock and Mid/small market capitalisation
stock. The categorisation of stock based on market capitalisation is as per the SEBI requirement.
prospects may not be realised. Under no circumstances can it be used or considered as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the
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which PCIL believe is reliable. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate
or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice.
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Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the
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Additional Disclosures of Interest:
Unless specifically mentioned in Point No. 9 below:
1. The Research Analyst(s), PCIL, or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst does not have any financial interest in the DMart(ies) covered in this
report.
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DMart (ies)covered in this report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report.
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ANILKUMAR
RESEARCH,
2.5.4.20=0626bc44fa4f4d447b8a707b26b8373e49e4706f6f412eaa27d
a43d244d5faa2, postalCode=400013, st=Maharashtra,
serialNumber=2da49c659b9f8e0d88142ea5fa621f46f0de4b7c9d9410
c42248cc4f70b27992, cn=ANKIT ANILKUMAR KEDIA
KEDIA
Date: 2021.06.20 19:45:01 +05'30'