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Jurnal Internasional Land Sliding
Jurnal Internasional Land Sliding
Rubin Wang, Kun Zhang, Wei Wang, Yongdong Meng, Lanlan Yang & Haifeng
Huang
To cite this article: Rubin Wang, Kun Zhang, Wei Wang, Yongdong Meng, Lanlan Yang & Haifeng
Huang (2020): Hydrodynamic landslide displacement prediction using combined extreme learning
machine and random search support vector regression model, European Journal of Environmental
and Civil Engineering, DOI: 10.1080/19648189.2020.1754298
Article views: 4
1. Introduction
Landslide displacement prediction is presently a key problem in international geological hazard research
and is one of the most effective means for realizing systematic forecasting of landslide hazards . Many
theories on landslide displacement prediction models have progressed from event-based prediction
methods, empirical models, and mathematical-statistical models to nonlinear models for smart prediction
and models for systematic comprehensive prediction (Bernardie et al., 2015; Van Tien et al., 2018; Lian
et al., 2014; Huang, 2007; Xu et al., 2008). However, owing to complex landslide-formation mechanisms
and landslide-inducing factors, landslide displacement prediction remains a popular but difficult
research topic.
Existing landslide displacement prediction methods mainly predict the future trend of displacement
by developing observational data (such as landslide displacement, reservoir water levels, and precipita-
tion)-based models using mathematical methods (Zhang et al., 2015). Observational data of landslide
CONTACT Rubin Wang rbwang_hhu@foxmail.com Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Geomechanics and
Embankment Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
ß 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 R. WANG ET AL.
displacement are relatively independent of those of its influencing factors, and the response relationship
between the two series of data is difficult to describe using conventional analytical methods. Thus, many
researchers investigated temporal variations in cumulative landslide displacement using time series ana-
lysis methods (Zhu et al., 2018; Wen et al., 2017; Xu et al., 2011; Lian et al., 2016). Wen et al. (2017)
decomposed cumulative displacement into two terms, trend and periodic displacements, using a time
series analysis method and then predicted landslide displacement by combining a least-square support
vector machine model and a genetic algorithm. Xu et al. (2011) decomposed landslide displacement into
trend and periodic terms using a double moving average method and then predicted the two terms
using a (1,1) grey model and automatic regression model, respectively. Huang et al. (2017) revealed the
chaos nature and inducing factors of the time series of reservoir landslide displacement and then pre-
dicted reservoir landslide displacement using a multivariate chaos extreme learning machine (ELM) model
. However, the nonlinear time series based modeling reviewed above involved apparent subjectivity in
neural network parameterization and landslide displacement decomposition and extraction, which
severely compromised landslide displacement prediction accuracy. Thus, the nonlinear models for land-
slide prediction need to be further improved.
To resolve the above problems, the present study developed a model for predicting the displacement
of hydrodynamic landslides by combining an ELM sub-model and a random-search support vector regres-
sion (RS-SVR) sub-model. The combined model is then tested by applying it to the Baishuihe landslide in
the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) as a case study. Particularly, the accumulative displacement of
the landslide observed using global positioning system (GPS) is decomposed into trend and periodic
terms using a time series model. With appropriate influencing factors identified, the trend and periodic
terms of the potential displacement of the landslide are then predicted using the ELM and RS-SVR sub-
models, respectively. The predictions for the two terms are then stacked to obtain the total displacement
of the landslide.
2. Methodology
2.1. Time series theory
According to previous studies on time series additive models (Xu et al., 2011), accumulative displacement
of landslide can be expressed as follows:
X ðtÞ ¼ ;ðtÞ þ gðtÞ þ eðtÞ (1)
where t is the discrete time; X(t) is the displacement time series; and ;ðtÞ, gðtÞ, and eðtÞ are the functions
for the trend term, periodic term, and random term of the displacement, respectively.
The accumulative displacement of landslide is mainly caused by the combined action of its internal
geological factors (such as lithological properties, engineering activities, geological structure, and topo-
graphic features, etc.) and external inducing factors (such as rainfall, reservoir water level, etc.) (Wang &
Han, 2014). Landslide displacement caused by geological factors, or the trend term of the total displace-
ment, can be approximated as a function that monotonically increases with time and reflects the overall
trend of accumulative displacement. The displacement caused by inducing factors, or the periodic term
of total displacement, can be approximated as a periodic function (Zhu et al., 2018; Wen et al., 2017; Lian
et al., 2016). Owing to limitations in the monitoring technique, it is difficult to obtain effective observa-
tional data of landslide displacement caused by random factors (such as wind and vehicle loads), or the
random term of total displacement. Thus, the random term is not considered in landslide displacement
prediction studies (Lian et al., 2014). In conclusion, Equation (1) can be simplified as follows:
X ðtÞ ¼ ;ðtÞ þ gðtÞ (2)
compute the weight matrix of the output layer through least-square linear regression. The learning
model as represented by Equations (3) - (4) consists of a training set (xi, ti,), hidden node output function
G(w,b,x), and the number of hidden nodes L:
fL ðxj Þ ¼ yj , 8j (3)
X
L
bi G wi , bi , xj ¼ tj , j ¼ 1, 2, :::, N (4)
i¼1
where xj is the input parameter; yj is the learning objectives; wi is the weight vector connecting the i-th
hidden and input nodes; bi is the bias of the i-th hidden node; bi is the weight vector connecting the i-
th hidden and output nodes.
ELM model is trained through the following three steps. First, the hidden node parameters, ai and bi,
are configured randomly. Second, the output matrix of the hidden layer, H, is computed using Equation
(5). Finally, the output weight b is obtained using the following equation: b ¼ HþT, where Hþ is the
Moore–Penrose generalised inverse matrix of the hidden layer output matrix, H, and can be obtained
through orthogonal projection or singular value decomposition:
2 3
Gðw1 , b1 , x1 Þ GðwL , bL , x1 Þ
6 .. .. .. 7
Hðw1 , :::, wL ; b1 , :::, bL ; x1 , :::, xN Þ ¼ 4 . . . 5 (5)
Gðw1 , b1 , xN Þ GðwL , bL , xN Þ NL
For learning and predicting of the data samples, the curve fitting of ELM can be optimized by adjust-
ing the regularization parameter and the number of hidden layer nodes. Although highly controversial,
ELMs are faster than conventional SLFNs but are comparable in terms of learning accuracy. This is the
biggest advantage of ELMs over conventional SLFNs.
W T wðxj Þ þ b yj e þ nj (9)
yj W wðxj Þ b e þ
T
nj (10)
nj 0, nj 0ðj ¼ 1, 2, , nÞ (11)
X
n
ar ar ¼ 0, ð0 ar , ar CÞ (14)
r¼1
where K(xr,xj) is the kernel function, which is defined in the present study as the radial basis function
(RBF). Thus, the SVR model can be expressed as follows:
X
n
f ðxÞ ¼ aj aj K ðxj , xÞ þ b (16)
j¼1
The model is based on statistical learning theory and has many advantages. Particularly, it requires
only a very small sample for learning, has a simple statistical structure, and performs better than trad-
itional backpropagation neural networks. Thus, the model is appropriate for predicting the displacement
of landslides with only short-period observational data.
An RS algorithm randomly searches the parameters of a prediction model, with all possible parametric
values sampled for each configuration. RS has two advantages over comprehensive search: (1) The
budget independent of the number and possible values of parameters. (2) The efficiency not compro-
mised by the addition of parameters having no impact on performance.
Figure 3. (a) Location of the study area; (b) Loction of Baishuihe Landslide; (c) Site photos of Baishuihe Landslide; (d) Loction of
GPS ZG118 and XD-01 in Baishuihe Landslide (modified from Zhou et al., 2018).
Figure 4. Relationship curve between cumulative displacement–monthly rainfall-reservoir water level of Baishuihe landslide.
where as the water level of the TGRA decreased from 160 to 145 m. In contrast, during the period of
August–April every year, the landslide displacement curve varied smoothly. Thus, the displacement curve
exhibited an overall trend of stepped development.
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND CIVIL ENGINEERING 7
The GPS observations of the accumulative displacement of the landslide obtained at observation
points ZG118 and XD-01 during the period from January 2009 to December 2018 were selected for sub-
sequent computations; the observations obtained during the period from January 2009 to December
2017 were used for training and those during the period from January to December 2008 were used
for testing.
Figure 6. Fitting curves yielded by the polynomial model and the ELM sub-model.
polynomial. However, this method had shortcomings. Particularly, similar to other fitting curves yielded
by conventional least square methods, the sum of squares of errors can be minimized, but the fitting
error at a few individual points may be very large, much larger than that at other points. This is evidently
unacceptable. Thus, the trend term of the total displacement is simulated using the ELM sub-model.
Table 2 shows the parameters of the trend term yielded by the ELM. Figure 6 compares the fitting curves
yielded by the polynomial model and ELM sub-models.
As shown in Tables 1 and 2 and Figure 6, the ELM sub-model is markedly better than the polynomial
model in terms of goodness of fit, thereby confirming that it is appropriate to simulate the trend term of
observed displacement using the ELM sub-model.
Table 3. Degrees of correlation between periodic displacement at observation points ZG118 and XD-01 and the two major
influencing factors.
Variation of Variation of
reservoir water reservoir water
Rainfall in the Rainfall in the level in the level in the
previous previous Current reservoir previous previous
Monitoring point one month two months water level one month two months
ZG118 0.78 0.78 0.83 0.84 0.83
XD-01 0.79 0.79 0.83 0.84 0.82
at the two selected observation points, revealing that the periodic displacement fluctuated periodically
with the reservoir water level and rainfall.
Figure 8. Predictions for periodic displacement at observation point XD-01 yielded by the two sub-models.
values are larger than 0.6, thus confirming that the correlations are close and the influencing factors are
reasonably defined (Yang et al., 2004).
Figure 9. Predictions for periodic displacement at observation point ZG118 yielded by the two sub-models.
Figure 10. Comparison between the measured and predicted cumulative displacements of landslide.
5. Conclusion
Landslide displacement prediction is an important means for realizing systematic landslide hazard fore-
casting and early warning system. In this paper, a landslide displacement prediction model by combing
12 R. WANG ET AL.
ELM and RS-SVR sub-models is proposed, which is showed better prediction accuracy than the models
using either the ELM or SVR technique. Taking the Baishuihe landslide in TGRA, for a case study, the
Landslide displacement sequence is decomposed into two terms, trend and periodic displacements by
using the time series additive model, and predicted the two terms using the ELM and RS-SVR sub-mod-
els, respectively. The results show that the trend displacement is simulated separately using the polyno-
mial model and ELM sub-model, confirming higher simulation accuracy of the ELM, and the periodic
displacement is simulated separately using the ELM and RS-SVR sub-models, confirming the greater
accuracy of the second sub-model in simulating periodic displacement. The accumulative displacement
simulated and predicted by the combined model demonstrated that the combination of the two sub-
models effectively increased the accuracy, stability, and scope of application of landslide displacement
prediction, providing a new method for landslide displacement prediction.
However, to better investigate landslide displacement in relation to precipitation and reservoir water
level, it is necessary to establish large databases of more accurate real-time observational data. Presently,
landslide hazards are not completely under control, particularly for landslides under the combined action
of strong precipitation and reservoir water level fluctuation. Thus, it is particularly important to monitor
large landslides in hydropower reservoir areas using state-of-the-art monitoring devices.
Acknowledgements
We thank the National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslides in the TGRA of Yangtze
River for their help in providing monitoring data for this study.
Funding
This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.
2017YFC1501100), the Open Foundation of National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslides
in the TGRA of Yangtze River, China Three Gorges University (2018KTL03), the Fundamental Research
Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2019B13814), the Open Foundation of Key Laboratory of Ministry
of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering, Hohai University (No. GHXN201905).
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