Unidad Académica Profesional

Cuautitlán Izcalli
Unidad de Aprendizaje

Licenciatura en Negocios Internacionales

Nombre del Alumna:

Aguilar Palma Andrea Estephania

Profesor:

Cuautitlán Izcalli, México a 12 de febrero de 2024

Phrase

"The flower that blooms in adversity is the rarest and most beautiful of all"

Conclusions

In summary, the increase in the price of oil is a complex phenomenon in the economy, politics
and environment. It is crucial that governments, businesses and consumers understand and
respond effectively to these changes to mitigate negative impacts and take advantage of
opportunities that may arise.

Questions

1.- What was the percentage by which the price of a crude barrel rose?
R= 0.78%

2.- West Texas Intermediate advanced 0.47%. What was the value that each barrel would
achieve per dollar?

R= 73.86 dollars per barrel

Reference
Eir Nolsoe. (2023, January 18). Why China’s best days are already behind it. Yahoo Finance; Yahoo

Finance. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-china-best-days-already-

195022194.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb&tsrc=fb&guccounter=1

El Economista. (2024, February 7). Precios del petróleo suben ante escalada de tensiones en Oriente

Medio. El Economista; El Economista. https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/mercados/Precios-del-

petroleo-suben-ante-escalada-de-tensiones-en-Oriente-Medio-20240207-0060.html
First questionnaire of the International Markets.
“Solamente es duradero lo que con la virtud se consigue”. Sófocles

URL

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-china-best-days-already-195022194.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb&tsrc=fb

1) Why China’s best days are already behind it?

Due to the economic problems that the country faced, it was affected in different sectors, causing
its growth percentage to decline.

2).- For the first time in more than 60 years, China’s population is shrinking. What does it
mean from an economic point of view?

It means growth is slowing down.

3) At what percentage China Graw in 2022? Was the best year for them?
a) 1.3 pc
b) 3 pc
c) 8.4 pc
d) 10 pc

4) The era of double-digit growth is “continue”, Magnus says.

False
No, the era of double-digit growth “is over”
5) Which country is now set to overtake it as the world’s most populous country this
year, according to UN projections?
a) Japan
b) Korea
c) India
d) United States of America

6) A shrinking population “aggravates” other issues, according to Magnus. China, like

much of the developed world, now faces the prospect of _________ population that
will put ever greater financial strain on its workers.
a) a younger
b) an ageing
c) a skill
d) a technologically

7) “___________________in the last several years has taken a much more authoritarian
and controlling view about its relationship with private firms and entrepreneurs. Lots
of private firms and entrepreneurs have had their wings clipped,” Magnus says.
a) Citizens
b) The government
c) Entrepreneurs
d) Banks

8) Apple is a prime example. It has relied on Chinese labour to manufacture its iPhones
since they were first released in 2007 but has now begun to shift manufacturing to
markets such as _________________________.
a) India and Vietnam
b) Taiwan and Philippines
c) South Korea and Japan
d) Australia and New Zealand

9) “The all-encompassing geopolitical confrontation between China and America, and

the Great Decoupling it has led to, is by far the _______ important force driving global
politics and economics,”
a) second
b) minor
c) less
d) most
10) Magnus says: “I think the _________________basically see a moment in time when
they think the West is in terminal decline and they see their moment, rightly or
wrongly, to exploit that.”
a) Ukrainians and Russians
b) Indians and Pakistanis
c) Americans and Europeans
d) Chinese and the Russians

11) Is it or not convenient to invest in this decade in China?

No, due to all the problems that the country faces economically, it stopped being one of the great
powers worldwide, which is why we see that due to COVID-19 its growth has been greatly affected.

12) Where would you recommend investing abroad? and why.

One of the countries that I would recommend to invest in is Dubai due to its great opportunities to
open your own business, the high standard of living that exists, and a very stable economy.

For decades, China’s growth stunned the world. The country’s transformation into the “workshop
of the world” unlocked what has been dubbed an economic miracle.
Now, however, the clouds are gathering over the world’s second-largest economy.
For the first time in more than 60 years, China’s population is shrinking. Growth is
slowing. Western investors, for years a source of capital for growth-hungry Chinese businesses,
are shunning the country. China’s lucrative tech sector is stumbling. And a slow motion
implosion is playing out in the country's debt fuelled property sector, triggering billions in losses
across the financial sector.
“I think people have to get used to the idea that in the next five to 10 years China's growth rate
will be quite pedestrian,” says George Magnus, an economist at the China Centre at Oxford
University. “It won't be the force in the world economy that it has been in the last 10 or 20 years.”
The evidence suggests China has passed its peak economically, according to Magnus, the
author of “Red Flags: why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy”.
GDP expansion has come to a juddering halt after a year of zero-Covid policies followed by an
explosive outbreak of the virus.
While 2023 will be a year of post-Covid recovery, with normal life resuming and consumers
spending money again, the country will struggle to get back to the dynamism it enjoyed in the
early part of this century. Growth stalled to 3pc in 2022, dropping from 8.4pc a year earlier.

Compared with many Western countries, 3pc is high. For China, however, it is the lowest growth
in 46 years, barring the height of the pandemic in 2020.
The era of double-digit growth is “all finished now”, Magnus says.
“That ended really in the 2000s. The growth rate in China has been halving each decade. So it
halved from about 10pc to 5pc between the 2000s and the 2010s. And it's going to halve again
in my view from about 5pc to about 2.5pc between the 2010s and the 2020s.”
Capital Economics, a research business, predicts the Chinese economy will grow 5.5pc this
year. The conditions are ripe for a short-term growth spurt according to chief Asia economist
Mark Williams. But like Magnus, he warns that looming structural issues will resurface before
long.
“Everything is aligning for near-term strength,” he says. “But the structural challenges that China
faces haven’t gone away.
“Its population is shrinking. The economy still runs on debt-funded investment, in property and
infrastructure, that no longer delivers rapid long-run growth. The advanced economies are
restricting China’s access to cutting-edge technology.
“China’s economy is getting back on its feet but it can’t run like it used to.”
2022 marked a historic turning point for China as its population fell for the first time in 61 years,
shrinking by 850,000 to 1.4bn according to The National Bureau of Statistics.
The decline is the product of Beijing’s decades-long policy of restricting how many children
couples can have, motivated originally by fears that overpopulation would exhaust resources.

Couples were restricted to one child from 1980 onwards. The policy was relaxed to two children
in 2016 before being scrapped altogether in 2021.

However, Beijing has struggled to boost birth rates given the fact China’s entire society has for
decades been oriented towards single child families. The country’s fertility rate has in fact
declined since the two-child policy was introduced, according to the World Bank.
India is now set to overtake it as the world’s most populous country this year, according to UN
projections.
A shrinking population “aggravates” other issues, according to Magnus. China, like much of the
developed world, now faces the prospect of an ageing population that will put ever greater
financial strain on its workers.
Even now, the economy is stuttering. A massive credit bubble, which drove China’s bumper
growth over the past decade, is starting to unwind.
“There's a lot of debt in China, it's over 320pc of national income. A lot of that debt is
uncommercial. Borrowers are finding it very, very difficult to keep current with their interest
payments and paying off their loans,” Magnus says.
The unwinding of this debt bubble is triggering serious problems in the property market. Analysts
at UBS estimate that China’s real estate slump will cost the nation’s banking system as much
as $212bn (£170bn) in losses on loans, bonds and other assets.

The country’s finance industry has already lost ground to rival Asian centres like Singapore in
recent years. Many international banks have turned their backs on Hong Kong in the face of
draconian Covid restrictions that have made it difficult to do business there in recent years.
China's tech sector has also lost its lustre. Revenue growth at some of its biggest companies,
including e-commerce giant Alibaba and games company Tencent, has slowed as Beijing has
turned its draconian glare on the industry.
“The government in the last several years has taken a much more authoritarian and controlling
view about its relationship with private firms and entrepreneurs. Lots of private firms and
entrepreneurs have had their wings clipped,” Magnus says.
The most public example was at Alibaba. After founder Jack Ma criticised regulation in a speech
in October 2020, Beijing launched an intense crackdown on Ma’s business empire that derailed
plans to list his financial business Ant Group. Ma himself disappeared from public view for three
months.
While Beijing has exerted greater control over tech, it has come at a cost. Revenue from
customer fees at Alibaba, China's answer to Amazon, fell by 7pc in November.
In recent months, President Xi Jinping has given signals that the tight grip on tech could be
easing. This week, ride-hailing company Didi announced it had reached an agreement with
China's authorities to begin adding new customers to its app again. Didi had been forced to pull
its US listed stock due to data concerns from Beijing.

However, the damage is done. China's position as the world's tech manufacturing hub has been
severely weakened and US companies are seeking to reduce their exposure to the country.
Apple is a prime example. It has relied on Chinese labour to manufacture its iPhones since they
were first released in 2007 but has now begun to shift manufacturing to markets such as India
and Vietnam.
Apple has good reason to fear disruption - trade barriers are being erected. The White House
has moved to cut off China's access to Western tech as geopolitical tensions rise. Using
sweeping sanctions, it has blocked Chinese tech companies from accessing advanced chip
designs and Western machines used to build semiconductors.
“There are conflicts, there are tensions and those are not going to be swift to resolve,” says
Karen Jackson, a Reader in Economics at the University of Westminster who specialises in trade
policy.
Restrictions like these can act as a drag-anchor on China’s growth.
Not everyone is convinced China's star is waning. Diana Choylev, the chief economist at
consultancy Enodo Economics, believes the clash with the US will cement China's importance
on the world stage.
“The all-encompassing geopolitical confrontation between China and America, and the Great
Decoupling it has led to, is by far the most important force driving global politics and economics,”
she says.
As the West turns away from China, Beijing is looking to Moscow. When Xi Jinping and Russian
President Vladimir Putin met in Beijing last February, they issued a joint statement asserting that
the friendship between the two knew "no limits" and had "no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation”.
Magnus says: “I think the Chinese and the Russians basically see a moment in time when they
think the West is in terminal decline and they see their moment, rightly or wrongly, to exploit
that.”
However, that appears to be wishful thinking. With problems mounting at home, Xi’s focus will
increasingly be domestic as Beijing battles to recapture the momentum that has powered China
to the top table on the world stage. It is a difficult struggle – all the signs suggest the country’s
best days may be behind it.