See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/371325622

INDIA'S TRADE WITH SINGAPORE -AN ANALYSIS DURING PRE AND POST
PANDEMIC PERIOD

Article · June 2023

CITATIONS READS

0 82

1 author:

V.Vijayakumar Vaithy
B. S. Abdur Rahman University
5 PUBLICATIONS 0 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE

All content following this page was uploaded by V.Vijayakumar Vaithy on 06 June 2023.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 ISSN 2319-829X 207
HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES, VOL. 12 ISSUE (1) NO 10 JANUARY – JUNE : 2023 207

INDIA’S TRADE WITH SINGAPORE – AN

ANALYSIS DURING PRE AND POST PANDEMIC
PERIOD
Dr. V. Vijayakumar, Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce, B S Abdur Rahman Crescent Institute
of Science and Technology, Chennai -48
vijayakumarv@crescent.education

Dr S Saravanan, Assistant Professor & Head, Department of Economics, Indra Gandhi College
of Arts and Science, Pondicherry

ABSTRACT
The close ties between India and Singapore have a history rooted in well-built commercial, cultural
and people-to-people links across a millennium. The colonial connection is reflected in institutions and
practices, usage of English and presence of a large Indian community. India was one of the first countries to
recognize Singapore in 1965. India-Singapore trade relations are based on shared values and approaches,
economic opportunities and convergence of interest on key issues. Bilateral trade expanded after the
conclusion of CECA from USD 6.7 billion in FY 2004-05 to USD 30.11 billion in 2021-22. India was
Singapore’s 12th largest trade partner, for the year 2021-22 with a share of 2.3% in Singapore’s overall
trade. Singapore is India’s 6th largest trade partner with a share of 2.9% of India’s overall trade (2021-
22). An earnest attempt has been made to analyse India’s Exports and Imports with Singapore during the
pre and post pandemic period.
Keywords: Bilateral trade, Trade relations, Exports, Imports, pre and post pandemic.

INTRODUCTION
The close ties between India and Singapore have a history rooted in well-built commercial, cultural
and people-to-people links across a millennium. The more modern relationship is attributed to Sir
Stamford Raffles who, in 1819, established a trading station in Singapore on the route of the Straits
of Malacca which later became a crown colony and governed from Kolkata till 1867. The colonial
connection is reflected in institutions and practices, usage of English and presence of a large Indian
community. India was one of the first countries to recognize Singapore in 1965.
India-Singapore trade relations are based on shared values and approaches, economic opportunities
and convergence of interest on key issues. Political engagement is regular. Economic and technological
ties are extensive and growing. Cultural and human links are very vibrant. There are more than 20
regular bilateral mechanisms, dialogues and exercises. There is great convergence on a broad range of
international issues and both are members of a number of forums, including East Asia Summit, G20,
Commonwealth, IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) and IONS (Indian Ocean Naval Symposium).
Agreements concluded between India and Singapore reflects the growing overall cooperation, which
provides a larger framework for activities between the two Governments, commercial and people-to-
 ISSN 2319-829X
HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES, VOL. 12 ISSUE (1) NO 10 JANUARY – JUNE : 2023 208

people exchanges. Key agreements include the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement
(2005) and its Second Review (2018), Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (1994, Protocols signed
in 2011), Bilateral Air Services Agreement (1968, revised in 2013), Defence Cooperation Agreement
(2003, enhanced Agreement signed in 2015), MOU on Foreign Office Consultations (1994), Mutual
Legal Assistance Treaty (2005), Mutual Recognition Agreement on Nursing (2018) and cooperation in
Financial technology (2018), Agreement for Conduct of Joint Army Training and Exercises (renewed
in 2019).
Bilateral trade expanded after the conclusion of CECA from USD 6.7 billion in FY 2004-05 to
USD 30.11 billion in 2021-22. India was Singapore’s 12th largest trade partner, for the year 2021-22
with a share of 2.3% in Singapore’s overall trade. Singapore is India’s 6th largest trade partner with a
share of 2.9% of India’s overall trade (2021-22).
In the year 2021-22, bilateral trade stood at USD 30.11 billion compared to USD 21.98 billion
during 2020-21. Exports to Singapore for the same period stood at USD 11.15 billion vis-à-vis USD 8.7
billion during 2020-21- recording a growth of 28.53%.

LITRATURE SURVEY
A light on the India-ASEAN relations from rise of regionalism in Southeast Asia to India’s focus on
ASEAN has embarked. It elaborated the economic relations between India and ASEAN by examining
economic ties and provided an understanding of the direction that India-ASEAN partnership is holding
ample potential for a successful future (Anand, 2009). ASEAN-India FTA has created one of the largest
regional blocs in the world. ASEAN was India’s fourth largest trading partner. AIFTA with trade in
goods would bring modest benefit to India (Yadav, 2010). India’s trade prospect with ASEAN countries
by analyzing the pattern and trends in India’s bilateral merchandise trade with ASEAN countries and
their revealed comparative advantage in different products has in order to enlarge international trade
benefits. India should pay attention to pave the way for concluding the multilateral trade liberalization
under WTO’s Doha round trade negotiations (Ohlan, 2012). A study analysed the growth and direction
of Indo-ASEAN trade and observed that both the regions were complementary to each other rather than
competitive (Choudhary, 2013). The competitiveness and potential of agricultural trade between India
and ASEAN members analyzed that ASEAN stood as a major supplier of agricultural commodities to
India in Asia and the export promotion measures by India should be taken to increase the trade with
ASEAN countries (Renjini, et al. (2017). The future possibilities in economic relations between India
and ASEAN countries analyzed that there have been few challenges in terms of physical, institutional
and people to people connectivity which could slow down the economic growth of India and ASEAN
(Bhogal, 2018). India’s rebranded “Act East Policy” has led to a vibrant cooperation under the growing
economic relations between India and Singapore in the 21st Century. During the Cold War, Singapore,
a natural ally of India remained friendly playing a buffer role in trying to bring India towards other
Southeast Asian countries. Although the bilateral relations remained constant they were neither
substantial nor warm during the Cold War due to ideological differences. After the launching of India’s
“Look East Policy”, India’s relation with ASEAN increases and ASEAN plays a considerable role for
the development of bilateral cooperation between India and Singapore (Gunjan, 2020)
 ISSN 2319-829X 209
HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES, VOL. 12 ISSUE (1) NO 10 JANUARY – JUNE : 2023 209

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

●● To analyse India’s Exports and Imports with Singapore during the pre pandemic Period.
●● To investigate India’s Exports and Imports with Singapore during post pandemic Period.

HYPOTHESIS
H1: There is no significant difference on India’s Exports with Singapore during the pre
pandemic Period.
H2: There is no significant difference on India’s Imports with Singapore during the post
pandemic Period.

METHODOLOGY
The source of secondary data used in this study has been collected from UN Trade; the methodology
adopted in this study is trend analysis and descriptive statistics. In this research paper paired t test has
been applied to find the impact of Covid-19 on Exports and Imports of India with Singapore during the
pre- Covid-19 and post- Covid-19. The period of the study (Monthly data) was from 2018 to 2021.
Table: 1 India Exports to Singapore during Pre and Post pandemic Period

Export Trade
Year Month Export (billion) Year Month (billion) Balance
2018 JAN 0.58 2020 JAN 0.65 0.07
2018 FEB 0.92 2020 FEB 0.68 -0.24
2018 MAR 0.84 2020 MAR 0.61 -0.23
2018 APR 0.55 2020 APR 0.83 0.28
2018 MAY 1.24 2020 MAY 0.66 -0.58
2018 JUNE 0.94 2020 JUNE 0.91 -0.04
2018 JULY 0.69 2020 JULY 0.60 -0.08
2018 AUG 0.72 2020 AUG 0.62 -0.10
2018 SEP 1.03 2020 SEP 0.78 -0.25
2018 OCT 0.90 2020 OCT 0.64 -0.25
2018 NOV 1.07 2020 NOV 0.49 -0.58
2018 DEC 0.93 2020 DEC 0.80 -0.13
2019 JAN 0.69 2021 JAN 0.68 -0.01
2019 FEB 0.83 2021 FEB 0.64 -0.19
2019 MAR 2.06 2021 MAR 1.09 -0.97
2019 APR 1.07 2021 APR 1.00 -0.08
2019 MAY 1.42 2021 MAY 1.36 -0.06
2019 JUNE 0.68 2021 JUNE 1.05 0.37
2019 JULY 0.98 2021 JULY 1.05 0.08
2019 AUG 0.73 2021 AUG 0.86 0.13
2019 SEP 0.78 2021 SEP 0.85 0.07
2019 OCT 0.48 2021 OCT 0.57 0.09
 ISSN 2319-829X
HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES, VOL. 12 ISSUE (1) NO 10 JANUARY – JUNE : 2023 210

2019 NOV 0.54 2021 NOV 0.63 0.10

2019 DEC 0.51 2021 DEC 0.87 0.36

Source: UN Trade.Com
The above table 1 and bar chart below depicts the India’s Exports with Singapore, during pre
pandemic and post pandemic has increased with upward and downtrends. The data frequency is
expressed on monthly basis, from Jan 2018 to Dec 2019 is pre global pandemic and from Jan2019 to Dec
2021 was post global pandemic. The highest exports was registered in Dec 2018 was $2.06 billion and
lowest was registered in October 2019 was $0.48 billion. In post global pandemic scenario expect a few
months trade was declined but all other period trade has increased moderately. The highest exports was
registered in May 2021 was $1.36 billion and lowest was registered in October 2021 was $0.57 billion.
An attempt has been made to measure the impact of global pandemic by making a comparison of India’s
Exports with Singapore during pre and post pandemic using paired‘t’ test with the SPSS package, result
is depicted below.
Hypothesis
H1: There is no significant difference of global pandemic on India’s Exports with Singapore.
H01: There is significant difference of global pandemic on India’s Exports with Singapore.
The p - value is more than 0.05 and hence the null hypothesis is cannot be rejected. There is no
significant effect of Global pandemic on Exports, indicates that the exports during post Global pandemic
has been significantly have negative impact as compared with pre Global pandemic. Hence Global
pandemic on India’s Export to Singapore is fluctuating with up and down trends.

Paired Samples Statistics

Mean N Std. Deviation Std. ErrorMean
Pair 1 Preexports .8825 24 .34339 .07009
Postexports .7883 24 .20771 .04240

Paired Samples Correlations

N Correlation Sig.
Pair 1 Preexports & Postexports 24 .484 .016

Paired Samples Test

t df Sig.
Paired Differences (2-tailed)
Std. Error 95% Confidence Std. Error
Mean Std. De- Mean Interval of the Dif- Mean Std. De- Mean
viation ference viation

Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

Pre exports – Post- .09417 .30323 .06190 -.03388 .22221 1.521 23 .142
exports
 ISSN 2319-829X 211
HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES, VOL. 12 ISSUE (1) NO 10 JANUARY – JUNE : 2023 211

Table: 2 India’s Imports from Singapore during Pre and Post pandemic Period

Import Import Trade

Year Month (billion) Year Month (billion) Balance
2018 JAN 0.75 2020 JAN 1.38 0.63
2018 FEB 0.57 2020 FEB 1.58 1.02
2018 MAR 0.82 2020 MAR 0.97 0.15
2018 APR 1.27 2020 APR 0.46 -0.81
2018 MAY 1.28 2020 MAY 0.70 -0.59
2018 JUNE 1.36 2020 JUNE 0.65 -0.71
2018 JULY 1.32 2020 JULY 0.87 -0.45
2018 AUG 1.31 2020 AUG 0.87 -0.44
2018 SEP 1.37 2020 SEP 1.18 -0.19
2018 OCT 1.40 2020 OCT 1.30 -0.09
2018 NOV 1.32 2020 NOV 1.03 -0.29
2018 DEC 1.56 2020 DEC 1.33 -0.23
2019 JAN 1.26 2021 JAN 1.52 0.26
2019 FEB 1.35 2021 FEB 1.59 0.24
2019 MAR 1.48 2021 MAR 1.80 0.32
2019 APR 1.22 2021 APR 1.71 0.48
2019 MAY 1.38 2021 MAY 1.14 -0.24
2019 JUNE 1.31 2021 JUNE 1.18 -0.13
2019 JULY 1.42 2021 JULY 1.20 -0.22
2019 AUG 1.13 2021 AUG 1.30 0.18
2019 SEP 1.12 2021 SEP 1.50 0.38
2019 OCT 1.14 2021 OCT 1.56 0.42
2019 NOV 0.99 2021 NOV 1.58 0.58
2019 DEC 1.10 2021 DEC 2.11 1.01

Source: UN Trade.Com
The table 2 above depicts the India’s Imports from Singapore, during pre -covid-19 and post covid
-19 has increased consistently with great fluctuations. The data frequency is expressed on monthly
basis, from Jan 2018 to Dec 2019 is pre global pandemic and from Jan2019 to Dec 2021 was post
global pandemic. The highest imports was registered in December 2018 was $1.56 billion and lowest
was registered in February 2018 was $0.57 billion. In post global pandemic scenario expect a few
months trade was declined but all other period trade has increased moderately. The highest imports
was registered in December 2021 was $2.11 billion and lowest was registered in April 2020 was $0.46
billion. An attempt has been made to measure the impact of global pandemic by making a comparison
of India’s imports with Bangladesh during pre and post Global Pandemic using paired‘t’ test with the
SPSS package, result is depicted below:
 ISSN 2319-829X
HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES, VOL. 12 ISSUE (1) NO 10 JANUARY – JUNE : 2023 212

Paired Samples Statistics

Std. Std. Error
Mean N Deviation Mean
Pair 1 PreImports 1.2179 24 .23583 .04814
PostImports 1.2713 24 .39357 .08034

Paired Samples Correlations

N Correlation Sig.
Pair 1 Pre Imports & PostIm- 24 -.214 .315
ports

Paired Samples Test

Paired Differences t df Sig.(2
tailed)
Mean Std. Devia- Std. Er- 95% Confidence Mean Std. De- Std. Error
tion ror Mean Interval of the Differ- viation Mean
ence
Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
Pre
Imports
– Post -0.05333 0.50024 0.10211 -0.26457 0.1579 -0.522 23 0.606
Imports

The p - value is more than 0.05 and hence the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. There is no
significant effect of Global pandemic on Imports, indicates that the Imports during post Global pandemic
has been significantly lower as compared with pre Global pandemic Hence Global pandemic on India’s
Imports from Singapore is not significant, meaning that imports hasdeclined during pandemic period

CONCLUSION
This research study investigates the effect of pandemic on Exports and Imports for India with
Singapore using time series monthly data from 2018 to 2021. Further, the study also analysed the trend
and pattern of India’s Exports and Imports with Singapore. The result revealed that the India’s Export
has increased impressively before pandemic; it has been observed a greater fluctuation after pandemic.
Even many times exports declined India Imports has increased consistently during pre- pandemic and
declined after pandemic. result also suggests that the growth rate of exports was more than the growth
rate of import. The result of paired sample “t” test suggests that there was a positive effect of pandemic
on India’s Exports to and Imports from Singapore. With strong Macroeconomic fundamentals of Indian
Economy it will not able to absorb shocks of caused by pandemic, on the exports and imports.
 ISSN 2319-829X 213
HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES, VOL. 12 ISSUE (1) NO 10 JANUARY – JUNE : 2023 213

REFERENCES:
[1] A
 nand, M. (2009), India-ASEAN Relations : Analyzing Regional Implications, Institute of Peace and Conflict
Studies Special Report, 72, Page 1.

[2] B
 hogal, Preety (2018). India-ASEAN Economic Relations: Examining Future Possibilities. ORF Issue Brief,
221. Retrieve from: https://www.orfonline.org/research/ind ia-asean-economic-relationsexamining-future-
possibilities/

[3] C
 hairman’s Statement of the ASEAN-India Informal Breakfast Summit. 15 November, 2018. Retrieve from:
https://asean.org/chairmans-statementasean-india-informal-breakfastsummit/

[4] A
 zis, I. J. (1996), Resolving Possible Tensions in ASEAN’s Future Trade : Using Analytic Hierarchy Process,
ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 12(3), 309-324. Retrieved from : http ://www.jstor.org/stable/25770604 Accessed
on : 03 August 2018.
[5] B
 ernardo, M. V. (1987), The Challenge to ASEAN Economic Cooperation, Contemporary Southeast Asia, 9(2),
ASEAN IN THE 1990s : From Adolescence to Adulthood, PP 120-128. Retrieved from : http ://www.jstor.org/
stable/ 25797947 Accessed on : 21 May 2018. Raj Singh, Jyoti Kumari, A. Heer / Indian Management Studies
Journal 23 (2019) 53-78 77

[6] B
 hogal, P. (2018), India-ASEAN Economic Relations : Examining Future Possibilities. ORF Issue Brief, Issue
No. 221.

[7] B
 inh, D. T. T.; Duong, N. V.; and Cuong, H. M. (2013), Applying Gravity Model to Analyse Trade Activities
of Vietnam, 1-24, Retrieved from : https:// semanticscholar.org/paper/applying-gravity-model-to-analyse-trade-
activitiesBinh-Duong/ Accessed : 8 September 2018.

[8] C
 houdhary, S. (2013), India and ASEAN Trade : An Overview, International Journal of Social Science and
Interdisciplinary Research, 2(2), 82-94, Retrieved from : www.Indianresearchjournals.com Accessed on 10 May
2017.

[9] Dash, K. C. (2008), Regionalism in South Asia, Routledge Tayor and Francis Group, London and New York, 13.

[10] G
 aur, S. (2003), Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Between India and
ASEAN, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 20(3), pp. 283-91, Retrieved from : http www.researchgate.net/
publication/302386716 Accessed : 01 May 2018. http://asean.org/asean/about-asean/ Accessed on 4 May 2018.
https://statistics.laerd.comAccessed on 10 December 2018.

[11] Keling, F. M.; Som, M. H.; Saludin, N. M.; Shuib, S. M.; and Ajis, N. M. (2011),

[12] T
 he Development of ASEAN from Historical Approach. Canadian Cener of Science and Education, Asian Social
Science, 7(7),171-172, Retrieved from : www.ccsenet.org/ass Kumar, N.; Sen, R.; and Asher, M. (2004), India-
ASEAN Economic Relations - Meeting the Challenges of Globalization, ISEAS Working Paper, No. 23. Melitz,
J. (2008), Language and Foreign Trade, European Economic Review, 52(4), 667-699.
 ISSN 2319-829X
HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE STUDIES, VOL. 12 ISSUE (1) NO 10 JANUARY – JUNE : 2023 214

[13] Ohlan, R. (2012), ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement in Goods : An Assessment. African Journal of Social
Sciences, 2(3), 66-84. Retrieved from : https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254258778 Accessed on 18
July 2018. DOI : 10.2139/SSRN.27978026

[14] Palit, A. (2008), India-Singapore Trade Relations, ISAS Working Paper 46. Renjini, V. R.; Kar, A.; Jha, G. K.;
Kumar, P.; Burman, R. R.; and Praveen K. V. (2017),

[15] Brewster, David. (2009). India’s security partnership with Singapore. The Pacific Review, 22(5), 597-618.

View publication stats