India’s 5G Future –

Maximising Spectrum Resources

September 2021

Copyright © 2021 GSMA

 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES
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Published September 2021
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Authors
Kalvin Bahia, Principal Economist
Stefano Suardi, Economist
Contributors
Laurent Bodusseau, Senior Director - Spectrum
Luiz Felippe Zoghbi, Spectrum Policy Manager
Mehul Bhandari, Senior Manager, Spectrum &
Policy (India)
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

Contents
1. Executive Summary 2
2. Indian market overview 4
3. The state of spectrum in India 8
4. Enabling 5G with supportive spectrum policy 12
5. Recommendations for policymakers 20

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 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

1. Executive Summary

In the past five years, India has been one of the fastest-growing mobile broadband
markets, with 4G networks available to almost 99 per cent of the population and
consumers benefitting from some of the lowest prices for mobile services and
devices in the world. However, low average revenue per user (ARPU) levels and high
regulatory costs have limited operators’ ability to invest in upgrading their networks.
This is already impacting network quality and is expected to affect 5G roll-out, which
will require more capital-intensive investments than 4G.

2

The issue of spectrum management policy has never
been more vital. Making sufficient amounts of affordable
spectrum available is central to expanding and upgrading
mobile broadband services – and will be core to the success
of 5G in India. However, instances of spectrum licences
being sold for extremely high prices, or going unsold due
to the high reserve prices, are a cause for concern. These
outcomes undermine not only consumer mobile services
and the wider digital economy, but also impact India’s effort
in becoming a $5 trillion economy.
The causes of extremely high prices are often policy
factors that appear to prioritise other objectives, such as
maximising short-term state revenues, above long-term
support for the digital economy through improved mobile
services. Key issues arise when regulatory authorities:
• Fail to make sufficient amounts of mobile spectrum
available, which creates scarcity and artifically inflates
prices;
• Set excessive auction reserve prices, final prices or
annual spectrum fees; and
• Hold assignment processes that discourage
participation via complicated procedures or a lack of
transparency.
Spectrum is a valuable and scarce public asset that must be
put for public use in a timely manner. The primary goal for
the Indian government should therefore be to encourage
the timely and best use of spectrum in widespread, high
quality networks. Efficient spectrum awards maximise
access to affordable mobile broadband services, which, in
turn, drive a significant impact on the digital and the overall
economy.
INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES
In this report we take a closer look at how effective
spectrum pricing can support India’s National Digital
Communications Policy and help boost the country’s
economy. The key findings are:
• India has some of highest prices for spectrum in the
world, which have led to key spectrum bands going
unsold and directly limits the industry’s ability to invest
in upgrading mobile networks. This is already impacting
network quality and it is expected to affect 5G roll-out.
• Deploying 5G networks in India will require capital-
intensive investments. The mobile industry will only be
able to roll-out 5G in a cost-efficient manner across all
service areas if they have sufficient spectrum and if the
cost of access does not limit operators’ ability to make
the necessary network investments.
• 5G can play a vital role in India’s economy, with benefits
of at least $455 billion in the next two decades – but
poorly designed spectrum policies will put that at
risk. Ensuring that more than 300 MHz of mid-band
spectrum is available for 5G during the next auction at
a reserve price that allows industry to deploy across
all service areas could result in more than 200 million
additional 5G connections and increase the overall
economic benefits of 5G by at least $75 billion.
3
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

2. Indian market overview

4
 Agriculture

INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

Public administration and defence

Financial and insurance

Construction and real estate

Transportation and storage

India has been one of the world’s fastest-growing mobile broadband markets in recent
Services

years, but aEducation

digital divide persists
Mining and quarrying
India had 731 million unique subscribers and 500 million plans in the world.2 This ongoing shift to 4G is reflected in
mobile internet Healthcare
subscribers at the end of 2020.1 Over the the rapid adoption of smartphones in India, where mobile
next five years, it is expected there will be more than 155 data usage per smartphone is mong the highest in the
million new mobileUtilities
internet users. India is also seeing rapid world.3 Between 2016 and 2020, smartphones as a share of
migration to mobile broadband, driven by the expansion
Other Sectors total connections more than doubled, from 33 per cent to
of 4G coverage to almost 99 per cent of the population as almost 70 per cent. By 2025, India is projected to become
well as by some of the most affordable handsets and data the second-largest smartphone market in the world.
mmWave-enabled 5G enabled by
5G other spectrum bands

FIGURE 1 Source: GSMA Intelligence

Smartphone connections as a share of total connections in India, 2010–2025

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Historic Forecast

Despite this progress, however, there are stark differences likely to use mobile internet than urban residents.4 If this
in the adoption of mobile broadband by telecom service digital divide persists, it will lead to unequal information
areas (Figure 2). Within the service areas, there are also access and will also exacerbate wider socio-economic
significant divides as rural populations are 28 per cent less inequalities.

1. This refers to the number of unique subscribers, rather than connections or SIM cards, and so is less than the number of subscriptions reported by TRAI and DOT. This is because individuals can
own and use multiple SIM cards.
2. Source: GSMA, State of Mobile Internet Connectivity Report 2020 and GSMA Mobile Connectivity Index
3. Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2021
4. Source: GSMA Intelligence Consumers in Focus Survey 2020

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 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

FIGURE 2 Source: GSMA Intelligence analysis of data sourced from DoT. Penetration is calculated based on the number of connections (not unique subscribers).

Mobile broadband penetration by service area (2019)

140%

120%
Mobile broadband penetration (%)

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
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Low ARPUs combined with high spectrum and regulatory costs are impacting the
mobile industry’s ability to invest in 4G expansion and 5G deployment

The expansion of 4G connectivity and roll-out of 5G However, while the mobile industry has helped to
provides an opportunity to close the digital divide. This is accelerate connectivity in the past five years, low ARPUs5
reflected in India’s National Digital Communications Policy combined with high regulatory and spectrum costs have
(NDCP), which sets out a positive vision for the industry resulted in lower returns on investment compared to other
to attract investment of $100 billion to enhance India’s countries (Figure 3). This impacts operators’ ability to
digital infrastructure and to provide universal broadband invest and innovate, which affects Indian consumers who,
connectivity to every citizen. The government intends to for example, have some of the lowest average download
achieve this objective by supporting the next generation speeds in the APAC region (Figure 4). Slow speeds impact
of digital services (including 5G) and by scaling up 30 the user experience and result in inequality in terms of
digital themes across nine key areas, based on its vision of timely access to data rich information. Going forward,
providing citizens with ubiquitous and affordable internet low investment returns will also impact 5G network
and digital access. Mobile will play a central role in realising deployments, with India expected to lag behind other large
these ambitions and is crucial to achieving the NDCP’s emerging economies such as China, Brazil, Russia and
goals to connect, propel and secure India. Indonesia in the roll-out of 5G coverage.

5. Average revenue per user: When calculated per unique subscriber, India had one of the lowest ARPUs worldwide in 2020, at around $2.70.

6
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

FIGURE 3 Source: Thomson Reuters, GSMA Intelligence, MarketScreener

Return on invested capital

20%

15%

20%
Emerging APAC average
10%

15%
5%
Emerging APAC average
10%
0%

5% India Indonesia South Taiwan Thailand China Malaysia

Korea

0% Return on invested Emerging Asia Pacific

capital average (median)
India Indonesia South Taiwan Thailand China Malaysia
Korea
Return on invested capital (ROIC) is a financial measure that quantifies how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business; expressed as a percentage and
calculated as ROIC = (Net Operating Profit – Adjusted Taxes) / Invested Capital. For each country, the ROIC is calculated based on the average for operators where data is available.

Return on invested Emerging Asia Pacific

50 capital average (median)
45
FIGURE 4 Source: GSMA Intelligence calculations based on data provided by Ookla® Speedtest Intelligence®, 2020
40

35Average
50 download speeds – Mbps (2020)

30 45

25 40

20 35

15 30

10 25

5 20

0 15
10 China South Africa APAC average Brazil Russian Philippines Nigeria Indonesia India
federation
5

0
China South Africa APAC average Brazil Russian Philippines Nigeria Indonesia India
federation

7
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

3. The state of spectrum in India

India assigns less spectrum than other countries, which impacts the user experience

Since 2010, India has had several auctions that resulted operators are lower than those of comparable economies
in limited assignments due to high reserve prices. as well as the global and regional averages.
Consequently, the spectrum holdings of India’s mobile

8
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

FIGURE 5 Source: GSMA Intelligence. Spectrum holdings included above 600 MHz and below 3700 MHz

Total spectrum assignments to operators in selected countries (below 3700 MHz)

900
850
800 777

700
Spectrum holdings (MHz)

600 590 595

550
499
500
900 452
850
400
800 777
310
300
700
Spectrum holdings (MHz)

200 595
600 590
550
100 499
500
452
0
400
India Indonesia South Africa Nigeria Brazil Russian China Philippines
310 federation
300
APAC average Global average
200

100
This has had a direct impact on consumers. In 2020, assigned, download speeds may have doubled and been
average0 download speeds in India were less than half the much closer to other countries (though still not at the
global 35average. India Indonesia
If all the available bands South Africa fully Nigeria same level,
had been Brazil
see FigureRussian
6). China Philippines
federation
30
Average download speeds (Mbps)

APAC average Global average

Source: GSMA Intelligence calculations based data provided by Ookla Speedtest Intelligence.
25
FIGURE 6 Scenarios are based on an assumption that an additional 10MHz of spectrum increases download speeds by 1Mbps.6

20
Download speeds in India – spectrum scenario analysis
15
35

10
30
Average download speeds (Mbps)

255

200
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

15
Global average India (actual) India (if no spectrum India (if all available
10 went unsold) bands were fully assigned)

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Global average India (actual) India (if no spectrum India (if all available
went unsold) bands were fully assigned)

6. This assumption is based on the results of an econometric analysis, which quantifies the link between download speeds and spectrum holdings. See, ‘The impact of spectrum prices on
consumers: Technical Report’ (GSMA, 2019)

9
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES
$70 0.70%

$60 0.60%

$50 0.50%

$40 0.40%

Furthermore,
$30 the correlation between spectrum availability of
0.30%spectrum assigned (Figure 7). This means that the
and network quality and coverage is highlighted by consumer experience outcomes are much better in those
$20 0.20%
regional spectrum assignments in India, as telecom circles circles with more assigned spectrum.
with
$10 better networks are also likely to have larger amounts 0.10%

0 0.00%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

FIGURE 7a FIGURE 7b

Circle holdings and download speeds (Mbps) Circle holdings and 4G availability (%)

15 100
98
14 AP
WB
AS
96 DEL
BR
13 KO
PB MU 94 NE RJ
HR
GJ GJ
HP RJ HP
12 WB MP 92 UP(W) UP(E)
OR MP
DEL MU
TN 90
11 KA
KL MH
88 KO AP
TN
AS MH
OR KA
BR
10 UP(W) 86 KL

UP(E) NE
84
9 JK
82
8 80
50 55 60 65 70 75 50 55 60 65 70 75

Average spectrum per operator (MHz) Average spectrum per operator (MHz)

Source: GSMA Intelligence, DoT, TRAI and Speedtest data sourced from Ookla (2020). 4G availability refers to the proportion of operators’ known locations where a device has access to a 4G LTE service.
Holdings in each circle reflect the average assigned to the main four operators in 2020.

Over the past 10 years, spectrum prices in India have been above the global average since 2010, while almost 20 per
significantly higher than those of other countries, both in cent have been at very high prices.7
Asia and other developing countries. This is reflected in the
median unit price of spectrum per population (adjusting As a result, mobile operators in India pay significantly
for inflation and purchasing power parity) and especially higher costs for spectrum compared to other large
when adjusting for operator revenues, which captures the emerging markets and high-income countries (Figure 9).
value of the mobile market in the short-to-medium term This directly impacts operators’ return on investments and
(Figures 8a and 8b). When considering spectrum pricing at their ability to invest in upgrading networks.
a circle-level, more than half of the prices paid have been

7. ‘Very high prices’ are classified based on a set of spectrum pricing data for 114 countries, covering 529 assignments. They are defined as a price greater than the third quartile plus three times the
inter-quartile range. See for example, ‘Effective Spectrum Pricing in Africa’ (GSMA, 2020) and, ‘Spectrum pricing in developing countries’ (GSMA, 2018)

10
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

FIGURE 8a FIGURE 8b

Median unit prices: India versus global and Median unit prices: India versus global and
regional comparators, 2010–2021 regional comparators, 2010–2021
($/MHz/year/population8) (per million of revenue ($)9)

All spectrum All spectrum

awards awards

Coverage spectrum Coverage spectrum

awards awards

All spectrum All spectrum

awards awards
Capacity spectrum Capacity spectrum
awards awards

Coverage spectrum 0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 Coverage spectrum 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
awards awards
India Global APAC Developing countries

Capacity Intelligence, based on spectrum pricing data for 114 countries. Spectrum prices have beenCapacity
spectrum
Source: GSMA spectrum
adjusted for inflation, PPP and license duration (Figure 8a) and operator revenues and license
duration (Figure 8b).
awards awards

0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
32%
India Global APAC Developing countries
FIGURE 9 Source: GSMA Intelligence and Coleago10.

Spectrum costs as a proportion of annual recurring revenue, 2019

18%
32%

10% 10%
8%

4% 3%
18% 1% 1%

India Pakistan Germany Bangladesh UK Brazil Nigeria Finland China

10% 10%
8%

6.0 4% 3%
1% 1%
5.5
India Pakistan Germany Bangladesh UK Brazil Nigeria Finland China
5.0

4.5 Spectrum costs combine annual spectrum fees as well as auction payments. The latter are annualised based on the license length and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
Note:
WACC estimates for the telecoms sector in each country are sourced from WACC Expert.
6.0 4.0

5.5 3.5

5.0 3.0

4.5 2.5

4.08.2.0This metric calculates the unit price of an individual assignment of spectrum (at country level) based on the amount paid (in constant dollars adjusted for purchasing power parity) divided by the
amount of MHz2019 2020
assigned, the license length 2021
and the country’s population. 2022
It represents an estimate of the unit spectrum cost2023 2024
based on the market size that operators can address. 2025
3.59. This metric calculates the unit price of an individual assignment of spectrum (at country level) based on the amount paid divided by the amount of MHz assigned, the licence length and annual
operator revenues. It represents an estimate of the unit spectrum cost based on the existing value of the market.
3.010. Estimates for Germany, United Kingdom India India
and Finland are sourced 2025
from target
Coleago, Japanpricing’ (2019). The remaining
‘Sustainable spectrum Germanycountries are based onUK
calculations carried out by GSMA
Intelligence.
2.5

2.0 11
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

4. Enabling 5G with supportive

spectrum policy

12
 India Global APAC Developing countries

INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

32%

5G has the potential to accelerate growth and drive a post-pandemic recovery

18%
COVID-19 has unleashed an economic and human a post-pandemic acceleration in growth. As a general
development crisis, both in India and globally. India’s purpose technology, mobile can enable other sectors
economy contracted by 8 per cent in 2020, although the to work towards this goal. Studies have shown that a 10
10% 10%
government remains committed to India becoming a $5 per cent increase in mobile broadband penetration can
8%
trillion economy by 2025. This ambitious aim will require increase GDP by 1-2 per cent.11
4% 3%
1% 1%

India Pakistan Germany Bangladesh UK Brazil Nigeria Finland China

FIGURE 10 Source: IMF

GDP forecast for India compared to select countries and India’s 2025 target, 2019–2025
($
6.0 trillion, 2020 prices)

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

India India 2025 target Japan Germany UK

5G presents an opportunity to propel India to the next
generation of digital connectivity and deliver significant
social and economic benefits. Over the next 20 years, 5G
is expected to contribute around $455 billion to the Indian
economy, accounting for more than 0.6 per cent of GDP by
2040 (Figures 11a and 11b). What makes the opportunity so
significant is 5G’s ability to drive innovation across all sectors
powered by four use cases: enhanced mobile broadband;
ultra-reliable low-latency communications; massive Internet
of Things; and fixed wireless access. In India, benefits
are expected to be realised in the manufacturing sector,
representing 20 per cent of the total benefit, and in the
retail, ITC and agricultural sectors. The public administration
sector, including healthcare and education, is also expected
to benefit from 5G, thanks to smart cities and smart
government 5G-enabled applications. The pandemic
has only highlighted the need for reliable and resilient
connectivity for all sectors of the economy. Practical use
cases will also be developed post spectrum awards, as many
sectors and organisations prepare for a significant shift
in the way they behave, operate and transact. In order to
change, however, they need strong connectivity.

11. See for example GSMA Intelligence, ‘Mobile technology: two decades driving economic growth’ (2020) and ITU, ‘Economic Impact of Broadband,
Digitization and ICT Regulation’ (various)

13
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

AFFORDIBLE AND SUFFICIENT ACCESS TO PAN-INDIA SPECTRUM

NETWORK HIGHER COVERAGE GREATER DEMAND ECONOMIC

INVESTMENT AND FASTER SPEEDS AND USAGE GROWTH

More efficient Peak data rates More than 200 million At least $75 billion
investment across India could more additional 5G generated in additional
than double connections GDP
FIGURE 11a FIGURE 11b Source: GSMA Intelligence12

Expected economic contribution of 5G in India Expected economic contribution of 5G in India as

(billion) a percentage of annual GDP
$70 0.70%

$60 0.60%

$50 0.50%

$40 0.40%

$30 0.30%

$20 0.20%

$10 0.10%

0 0.00%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

The impact of 5G will be influenced by spectrum policy

15 100
Policymakers can play a significant role in enabling the 98 the prices paid at auctions, which means the potential
and
14 AP
WB
AS
impacts of 5G by providing timely access to the right 96
of 5G services will vary DELbetween countries. This, in turn,
BR
13
amount and type of spectrum at affordable 94
HR prices across directly impacts the socio-economic benefits of
RJ 5G and the
KO MU NE
PB
GJ GJ
HP RJ
all
12 service areas. Worldwide, there is WBalready
MP
a significant competitiveness
92 HP
of national economies.
UP(W) UP(E)
OR MP
variation in the amount of spectrum assigned by countries,
DEL TN 90 MU

11 KA
KL MH
88 KO AP
TN
AS MH
OR KA
BR
10 UP(W) 86 KL

UP(E) NE
84
9 JK
82
8 80
50 55 60 65 70 75 50 55 60 65 70 75

Average spectrum per operator (MHz) Average spectrum per operator (MHz)

12. For further details on how these economic impact estimates are calculated, see ‘The Impacts of mmWave 5G in India’ (2020)

14

5G needs a significant amount of harmonised spectrum
In order to get the most out of 5G, spectrum is needed
across low-, mid- and high-bands to deliver widespread
coverage and support all use cases. Frequencies in the
3.5 GHz range (3.3-4.2 GHz) have in particular been used
as the basis for the first roll-outs of 5G globally, driving
the wider ecosystem, device diversity and competition.
The range is at a balancing point between coverage and
capacity that provides the perfect environment for the
earliest 5G connectivity.
To meet the IMT-2020 requirements, an initial 100 MHz per
operator is needed in 5G-enabled mid-bands. Making less
spectrum available will impact service quality, decrease peak
data rates and increase the necessary network investments.
For example, moving from 40 MHz to 100 MHz in 5G mid-
bands will result in double peak data rates, while moving
from a 100 MHz to 60 MHz spectrum assignment will
increase the number of cell sites required by up to 64 per
cent.13
13. ‘3.5 GHz in the 5G Era’ (GSMA, 2021)
14. ‘3.5 GHz in the 5G Era’ (GSMA, 2021)
INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES
In India, it is important that more than 300 MHz of spectrum
in the mid-bands is made available to the mobile industry,
as it will mean operators having access to the spectrum
necessary to meet the ITU 5G target parameters. If this is
not available, operators will not have sufficient spectrum
to deploy 5G in a cost-efficient manner that benefits
consumers and the wider economy.
However, this is just the first step towards building resilient
connectivity. Many countries – including South Korea,
Japan and most of Europe, North America and the Middle
East and North Africa - have already moved beyond
the Radio Regulations to assign even more mid-band
spectrum, especially in 3.3-4.2 GHz.14 This is important in
urban areas with high population densities, as operators
will have to densify the network with small cells to deliver
the 5G downlink and uplink data rates. More mid-spectrum
available reduces the need for cell site densification, which
sometimes isn’t even possible, thus reducing infrastructure
investment and also delivering important environmental
benefits. In the medium-to-longer term, it is therefore
important that India releases around 2 GHz of mid-band
spectrum for 5G going forward, including in the 3.5 GHz
range and the 6 GHz band.
15
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES
Modest reserve prices are needed
Reserve prices can have an important role in discouraging
speculators and frivolous bidding, recovering the
administrative costs of the award process and limiting
collusion incentives amongst bidders. However, they should
also allow room for price discovery, encourage participation
and avoid spectrum going unsold. Given what has happened
in previous Indian auctions, including the March 2021 auction
when 62 per cent of available spectrum went unsold, the
primary objective should be to ensure that all available
spectrum is assigned in a manner that maximises consumer
welfare and economic efficiency.
Given that more spectrum will be required to fulfil consumer
demand, an auction should be seen as a frequent affair
where operators have flexibility to manage demand at
regular intervals. Affordable pricing is key to manage the
level of enthusiasm for more investments and catering to
the socio-economic needs of the country.
In 2018, TRAI recommended a price of INR 4.9 billion
(around $67 million) per MHz for spectrum in the 3.3-4.6
16
GHz bands. When adjusting for purchasing power parity,
market size and licence length, this is higher than reserve
prices in almost all other countries that have assigned the
band so far (Figure 12a) – and higher than most of the actual
prices paid. When taking revenues into account, the reserve
price is significantly higher than what has been set in other
markets (Figure 12b).
The current pricing for 3.5 GHz therefore puts the future of
the band in jeopardy and there is a risk it will end up being
another example of a band that is not used efficiently in
India. This will make it more challenging for the industry to
deploy 5G throughout the country, which risks exacerbating
the digital divide and hindering the wider socioeconomic
impacts. Fortunately, the government still has an
opportunity to change course.
5G must be seen as a mass technology, as it is capable of
not only supporting mobile broadband subscribers but also
millions of IoT chipsets that will directly affect and shape the
lives of Indians post-pandemic.
 So So

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bo
ur
xe bia xe bia g g
m m Fi F
bo bo Ita nl Ita in
ur ur ly an ly lan
g g (3 d (3 d
Sw Sw .7 .7
ed ed GH GH
en en z) z)
Sp Fi Sp Fi Sp Sw Sp Sw
ain n lan ain n lan ain ed ain e de
Au (3. d Au (3. d Au (3 en
Au (3. n
Cz 7 Cz 7 Cz .7 Cz 7
ec st G ec st G ec st ec st G
Comparison of reserve prices in the 3.5GHz band ($/MHz/pop/year)

h r Hz h r Hz h ria GH h r Hz
Re ia (3 ) Re ia (3 ) Re (3 z) Re ia (3 )
pu .7 pu .7 pu .7 pu .7
bl GH bl GH bl GH bl GH
ic z) ic z) ic z) ic z)
(3 (3 (3 (3
.7 .7 .7 .7
GH GH GH GH
z) z) Sw z) Sw z)
itz itz
La La er er
Sw tvi Sw tvi lan lan
itz a itz a d d
er er La La
lan lan tv tv
d d ia ia
Ire Ire Ire Ire
lan lan lan lan
d d d d

UK UK UK U
Ge Ge Ge Ge K
of reserve prices in the 3.5GHz band (per million of revenue ($) per MHz per year)

rm rm rm rm
an an an an
y y y y
INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

Ta Ta Ta Ta
iw iw iw iw
an an an an

17
Source: GSMA Intelligence
Source: GSMA Intelligence
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

Assigning at least 300 MHz of spectrum at affordable prices could increase

the economic impact of 5G by an additional $75 billion

To illustrate the impact of potential spectrum policies in

India, one can consider two scenarios. When a larger share of mid-band spectrum is assigned at
affordable prices, based on the above scenario, operators
• Baseline – Mid-band spectrum is put up for auction
can roll out coverage more quickly and improve network
at the current reserve price. At this price, there is a
quality – thereby increasing demand and the associated
significant risk that 5G deployments are restricted to
economic benefits. In India, this could result in more than
India’s metro circles and that, in other areas, operators
200 million additional 5G connections and increase the
will have little-to-no access to any mid-band spectrum.
overall economic benefits of 5G by by at least an additional
• Scenario – At least 300 MHz is put up for auction at $75 billion (Figure 13).15
a reserve price that enables industry to access mid-
band spectrum across all service areas. This means that
operators can take a more holistic view and deploy 5G
in a uniform and time-bound manner across all circles.

FIGURE 13 Source: GSMA Intelligence

Economic impact of releasing at least 300 MHz of mid-band spectrum at affordable prices

AFFORDABLE AND SUFFICIENT ACCESS TO PAN-INDIA SPECTRUM

NETWORK HIGHER COVERAGE GREATER DEMAND ECONOMIC

INVESTMENT AND FASTER SPEEDS AND USAGE GROWTH

More efficient Peak data rates More than 200 million At least $75 billion
investment across India could more additional 5G generated in additional
than double connections GDP

$70 0.70%

$60 0.60%

$50 0.50%

$40 0.40%

$30 0.30%

$20 0.20%

$10 0.10%

0 0.00%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

15. In order to model the impact of this scenario, we assume that 300 MHz would be assigned across all circles (compared to the baseline where it is assigned only in Metro circles). To quantify the
impact of additional spectrum access on adoption, we assume that an additional 10MHz of 5G spectrum per operator would increase 5G coverage and adoption by 1.5 percentage points. This
is based on the results of an econometric analysis, which quantifies the link between 4G coverage and spectrum holdings (see GSMA, ‘The impact of spectrum prices on consumers: Technical
15 Report’ (2019)). This increase in adoption then drives additional economic benefits, in line with the
100analysis presented in Figure 11. Given the network densification requirements for 5G, this
approach may understate the benefits of ensuring that at least 300 MHz of mid-band spectrum is assigned at affordable prices.
98
14 AP
WB
AS
96 DEL
BR
13
18 KO
PB MU 94 NE RJ
HR
GJ GJ
HP RJ HP
12 WB MP 92 UP(W) UP(E)
OR MP
DEL
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

Other enabling factors will also be important for 5G

While an enabling spectrum policy framework will be critical • Facilitating backhaul deployments by awarding
in the development of 5G, there are other factors that will spectrum, particularly in the E band, and by enabling
also be important.16 These include: fibre roll-out (including a reduction in rights of way);
and
• Flexibility to establish network sharing;
• Harmonising power density limits.
• Facilitating access to site locations;
• Enabling small cell deploments;

16. See GSMA, ‘Realising 5G’s full potential: Setting policies for success’ (March 2020)

19
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

5. Recommendations for
policymakers

20
 INDIA’S 5G FUTURE – MAXIMISING SPECTRUM RESOURCES

As this report highlights, 5G can play a vital role in India’s economy. To make the most
of this opportunity, increasing mid-band spectrum allocations and striking the right
balance between raising revenues and delivering efficient spectrum awards will be key.
In terms of next steps, the GSMA’s policy recommendations are as follows:

1. Make available more than 300 MHz of spectrum in prime 5G mid-bands, with at
least 100 MHz of contiguous spectrum per operator;
2. Ensure that 5G spectrum is available across low, mid and high spectrum ranges
to deliver widespread coverage and support all use cases;
3. Avoid inflating spectrum prices, eliminate spectrum usage charges and prioritise
the assignment of all spectrum;
4. Adopt national spectrum policy measures to encourage long-term heavy
investments in 5G networks; and
5. Ensure a policy framework that helps minimise any regional differences between
circles, enabling equal and timely 5G access to the public.

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© GSMA September 2021