Probability and Confidence Intervals

Please answer the following quesiton as a group:

What is the difference between empirical and theoretical probability?

Empirical probability is based on a ratio of the number of attempts of a task to the
number of a specific result while theoretical probability starts with the desired
outcome and relates it to the number of possible results.
probability?
attempts of a task to the
arts with the desired
Probability and Confidence Intervals
Lili is trying to select a weight-loss plan to follow. She has narrowed her decision do
to two different weight-loss plans.

Both weight loss plans make the following claim:

"Fifty-eight percent of participants lost at least 10 pounds in the first month."

Lili decides to dig further. She reviews the studies conducted by both companies and
finds the following information on the amount of weight lost by participants in the fi
month of following the weight loss plan.

Plan A Plan B
Lost less than 2 lbs 2 1
Lost 2-4 lbs 0 1
Lost 4-6 lbs 1 2
Lost 6-8 lbs 2 25
Lost 8-10 lbs 0 10
Lost over 10 lbs 7 53
Total Number of participants 12 92
narrowed her decision down Recall the following formula for finding a confidence interval:

Use the formula to find a confidence interval for the true percent
n the first month." lost more than 10 pounds in the first month using each plan.

ed by both companies and Confidence interval for Plan A: 0.29, 0.87

ost by participants in the first Note: should be typed (low, high)
Confidence interval for Plan B: 0.47, 0.68
Note: should be typed (low, high)

Plan B Which plan should Lili choose? Use your confidence intervals to e
1 Lili should choose Plan B as it offers minimal margin of error.
1
2
25
10
53
92
ding a confidence interval:

e interval for the true percentage of participants who

t month using each plan.

0.29, 0.87

0.47, 0.68

your confidence intervals to explain your answer.

ffers minimal margin of error.
Probability and Confidence Intervals
Carmelo Anthony is an NBA player with a 2017 free-throw percentage of 83.3%.

We will use a die to simulate Carmelo Anthony shooting a free- throw.

If we roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5, he makes the basket
If we roll a 6 he misses the basket

What is the probability of rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 when you roll one die?

0.833 or 83.3%

What is the probability of rolling a 6 when you roll a die?

0.167 or 16.7%
Why does this make rolling a die a good way to simulate Carmelo Anthony
shooting a basket?
because it has the same percentage of having chances to make
the free-throw.

Do the Die Rolling Simulation on the right side of this page. Use your results
to find a confidence interval for the true percentage of times Carmelo
Anthony makes a free-throw.

Confidence Interval: 0.70, 0.98

Explain why we need a confidence interval? Why can't we just say Carmelo
Anthony will make exactly 83.3% of the free throws he shoots.
Estimates and drawing chances has limitations and confidence
interval represents how good an estimate is.
 Die Rolling Simulation:
w percentage of 83.3%. As a group, roll a die 50 times and record your results
If you have access to a die, you can roll an actual die. I
online die:
free- throw. https://www.random.or

Fill in your results below. Type the number you roll in

Miss?" column will fill in automatically.
u roll one die?
Roll #
1
2
3
4
armelo Anthony 5
6
nces to make 7
8
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. Use your results 12
mes Carmelo 13
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just say Carmelo 18
oots. 19
d confidence 20
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50 times and record your results below
a die, you can roll an actual die. If you don't have access, you can use this

https://www.random.org/dice/?num=1

low. Type the number you roll in the "Die Result" column and the "Make or
ll in automatically.

Die Result Make or Miss?

2 He MADE it!
5 He MADE it!
5 He MADE it!
4 He MADE it!
5 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
6 He MISSED
3 He MADE it!
4 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
2 He MADE it!
4 He MADE it!
6 He MISSED
5 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
3 He MADE it!
6 He MISSED
3 He MADE it!
3 He MADE it!
2 He MADE it!
4 He MADE it!
3 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
6 He MISSED
1 He MADE it!
6 He MISSED
4 He MADE it!
2 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
3 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
5 He MADE it!
5 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
4 He MADE it!
4 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
4 He MADE it!
5 He MADE it!
3 He MADE it!
5 He MADE it!
2 He MADE it!
4 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
5 He MADE it!
3 He MADE it!
1 He MADE it!
6 He MISSED
6 He MISSED
6 He MISSED