SOURCES: http://article.sapub.org/10.5923.j.economics.20110101.01.

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1. PROFILE OILSEEDS INVESTMENT

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

I. SUMMARY 1-3

II. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION & APPLICATION 1-3

III. MARKET STUDY AND PLANT CAPACITY 1-4

A. MARKET STUDY 1-4
B. PLANT CAPACITY & PRODUCTION PROGRAMME 1-6

IV. MATERIALS AND INPUTS 1-6

A. RAW & AUXILIARY MATERIALS 1-6
B. UTILITIES 1-7

V. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING 1-8

A. TECHNOLOGY 1-8
B. ENGINEERING 1-10

VI. MANPOWER & TRAINING REQUIREMENT 1-13

A. MANPOWER REQUIREMENT 1-13
B. TRAINING REQUIREMENT 1-14

VII. FINANCIAL ANLYSIS 1-14

A. TOTAL INITIAL INVESTMENT COST 1-15
B. PRODUCTION COST 1-15
C. FINANCIAL EVALUATION 1-16
D. ECONOMIC BENEFITS 1-18
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II. SUMMARY

This profile envisages the establishment of a plant for the production of oilseeds with a

capacity of 1,500 tonnes per annum.

The principal raw materials required are sesame seeds, sun flower seed, safflower seed,

groundnut, Niger seed and others of about 1.5 kg weight, which can be obtained
locally.
oilseeds has a high domestic and international demands by every country of the
world, and various institutions with food catering services, and households. According to
FAO database the world oilseeds production is 449 million tons for 2010. Ethiopia has altitudes from below
sea level up to more than 4,500m above sea level with very different climates. This enables Ethiopia to
grow a wide range of oilseeds, in which it has a long tradition. Oilseeds are the second largest export earner
for the country after coffee in which more than 3 million smallholders are involved in its production.
Exports actually consist of sesame and Niger seed, for which there is a growing demand in the world
market. Ethiopia ranks among the top 5 world producers of sesame seed and linseed. he growing demand in
the world market for these specialty products and the available capacity to expand production could make
oilseeds turn into one of the engines of economic growth of Ethiopia.
Export of sesame seed has grown in double digits each year from 1998 to 2006:50,000 tons in 1998
and more than 100,000 tons in 2006.In the second half of 2006 the main export markets for Ethiopian
sesame seed were China, Israel and other countries in the Middle East and Turkey.
Most oilseed crops -soybeans, cotton seed, rapeseed etc. - grown in Ethiopia are also grown in many
other countries in large volumes. For these oilseed crops, it will be very difficult for Ethiopia to compete on
the world market due to its relatively low volumes and high handling and transport costs. The Ethiopian
production for these crops is mostly less than 0.1%of the world production. To achieve a beneficial market
position on the world market huge efforts are required, which will be out of scope for Ethiopia in the near
future. These crops, however, can be of high importance for the domestic market, as food crop.
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Percentage share of oilseeds export value in total values of exports (1974-2009).

List of Ethiopian oilseeds and pulses exporters

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The total investment requirement is estimated at Birr 10 million birr, out of

which Birr 5.5 million is required for plant and machinery. The plant will create

employment opportunities for 37 persons.

The project is financially viable with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 19.90 % and a
net present value (NPV) of Birr 5.82 million, discounted at 9.0%.

This project will have a backward linkage effect with the livestock sub sector.
 1-6

II. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION AND APPLICATION

Chickens belong to the general group of poultry which are domesticated birds that serve
as a source of eggs or meat and that include, among commercially important kinds, such
as turkeys, ducks, geese, guinea fowls, pigeons and others.

A chicken or other bird, especially a chicken at the age of 10-12 weeks and weighing up
to 1.5 kg, which is dressed and fit for broiling, is termed as broiler. Dressed and packed
chickens are broilers killed, bled, and more or less completely prepared for cooking.

The major consumers of the product of the envisaged plant will be hotels, restaurants,
super markets, various institutions with food catering services, and high income
households.

III. MARKET STUDY AND PLANT CAPACITY

A. MARKET STUDY

1. Past Supply and Present Demand

In general, poultry refers to domesticated birds that serve as a source of eggs or meat,
including chicken, turkeys, ducks, geese, guinea fowls, pigeons and others. However,
chicken meat accounts for the overwhelming proportion of the poultry meat consumed in
Ethiopia.

According to the unpublished data of the City Administration’s Urban Agriculture

Department, the per capita consumption in Addis Ababa was about 2.5 kg of poultry
meat. Accordingly, considering the total population size of Addis Ababa in 2008, which
is 3.4 million the total consumption of the product is estimated at 8,500 tonnes.
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Industrially processed poultry meat has a high domestic demand by hotels, restaurants,
super markets, various institutions with food catering services, and high income urban
households. Therefore, the demand for processed poultry meat is conservatively
estimated at 20% of the total demand for poultry meat. Accordingly, the present demand
for processed poultry meat in Addis Ababa is estimated at 1,700 tonnes.

2. Projected Demand

Given a high domestic demand for processed poultry meat by hotels, restaurants, super
markets, various institutions with food catering services, and urban households, a 2.9%
rate of growth is used which is equivalent to the growth of population. Table 3.1 depicts
the projected demand for the product.

Table 3.1
PROJECTED DEMAND FOR PROCESSED POULTRY MEAT (in tonnes)

Projected
Year Demand
2008 1749
2009 1800
2010 1852
2011 1906
2012 1961
2013 2018
2014 2077
2015 2137
2016 2199
2017 2263
2018 2328
2019 2396
2020 2465

3. Pricing and Distribution

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Currently, the retail price of processed chicken meat is Birr 45 per kg. Allowing margin
for wholesale and retail the factory gate price for the product of the envisaged plant is
estimated at Birr 40 per kg.

The envisaged plant can distribute its product through the existing wholesale and retail
network, which includes department stores, merchandise shops and super markets.
B. PLANT CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION PROGRAMME

1. Plant Capacity

The designed annual capacity of the plant will be 1,500 tonnes of dressed and packed
chickens of about 1.125 kg, each. The production capacity is based on single shift of 8
hours per day and 300 days per year operation of the plant.

2. Production Programme

The plant will operate at 70% of its rated capacity in the first year and 90% in the second
year. Full production capacity will be achieved in the third year and thenafter. Low
operation capacity has been set for the first and second year due to the time needed for
market penetration. Detailed production programme is shown in Table 3.3 below.

Table 3.3
PRODUCTION PROGRAMME

Year 1 2 3-10
Capacity utilization (%) 70 90 100
Production (tonnes) 1,050 1,350 1,500

IV. MATERIALS AND INPUTS

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A. RAW AND AUXILIARY MATERIALS

The principal raw and auxiliary materials required are birds (chickens of about 1.5 kg
each), polyethylene bags and cardboard boxes. Chickens required by the plant can be
acquired locally from poultry development centers like ELFORA while Packing materials
can be sourced from locally available packing material producers like Classic packing
PLC. The detailed annual requirement for raw and auxiliary materials and corresponding
estimated cost at 100% capacity utilization are given in Table 4.1. The total annual cost
of raw materials is estimated at Birr 54,993 thousands.

Table 4.1
ANNUAL REQUIREMENT AND COST ESTIMATES OF RAW AND
AUXILIARY MATERIALS

Sr. Description Unit of Qty. Cost '000 Birr

No. Measure
1 Chickens (1.5 kg each) No. 1,334,000 53,360
2 Polyethylene bags kg 1,500,000 750
3 Polyethylene bags (edible pcs 266,800 133.4
entrails)
4 Card box pcs 150,000 750
Grand Total - - 54,993

B. UTILITIES

The major utilities required by the envisaged project are: fuel oil to generate steam,
process water, electric power and refrigerant. The total yearly consumption of utilities at
100% capacity utilization rate and their estimated costs are given in Table 4.2.The total
utilities cost is estimated at Birr 2,052,450.

Table 4.2
ANNUAL UTILITIES REQUIREMENT AND ESTIMATED COST
 1-10

Sr. Description Unit of Qty. Cost ( in Birr)

No. Measurement Unit Total
Cost Cost
1 Fuel oil m3 300 5840 1,752,000
2 Process water m3 70,000 3.25 227,500
3 Electric power kWh 150,000 0.473 70,950
4 Refrigerant kg 400 5 2,000
Grand Total - - - 2,052,450

V. TECHNOLOGY AND ENGINEERING

A. TECHNOLOGY

1. Production Process

The main production processes are described here under:

Slaughtering
 At the processing plant, workers take the birds from their boxes and hang them by
their feet on a conveyor belt. In a typical process, the birds on the conveyor are
first passed through a vat of electrified salt water called a stun cabinet. About 20
birds occupy the stun cabinet at one time, and they remain in the water for about
seven seconds. The mild electrical current in the water stuns or paralyses the
birds. Next, the birds are conveyed to an automatic neck cutter—rotating blades
that sever the two carotid arteries. The birds' carcasses hang until all the blood has
drained.
Defeathering and evisceration
 The carcasses are then briefly immersed in hot water to scald the skins. This
makes removal of the feathers easier. The carcasses move to automatic feather
pickers, which are moving rubber fingers that rub off most of the feathers. Then
the carcasses are scalded a second time and run through another feather picker.
Lastly, a specialized machine removes the wing feathers. The defeathered
carcasses next pass to a washer, which scrubs the outside of the body. The feet
 1-11

and head are cut off, and the carcass is conveyed to the evisceration area. Next,
the carcass is suspended in shackles by the feet and neck, cut open, and the
viscera (internal organs) are removed. When the carcass is empty, it is washed
again inside and out by a multiple-nozzled sprayer.

Chilling and Cutting

 The cleaned carcasses are sent down a / chute and immersed in a "chiller" of
cooled, chlorinated water for 40-50 minutes. The entire slaughter process takes
only about an hour, and the bulk of that time is taken up by the chilling. The
internal temperature of the chicken must be brought down to 40° F (4.4° C) or
lower before further processing. The chilled carcasses are then passed to a cutting
room, where workers cut them into parts, unless they are to be packaged whole.
Some carcasses may be cooked and the cooked meat removed and diced for foods
such as chicken pot pie or soups. Meat from backs, necks, and wings may be
processed separately for sale in other meat products such as hot dogs or cold cuts.
In whatever format, the meat is packaged by workers at the processing plant,
loaded into cases, and stored in a temperature-controlled warehouse. The waste
water to be generated in the production process of dressed chicken will be treated
and discharged in the waste water treatment plant.

2. Source of Technology

Equipment for production of dressed and packed chicken can be acquired from Italy,
Japan, India, etc. through contacts with the commercial attaches of respective embassies
to Ethiopia. The following firms can be considered as one of the possible source of
technology:

1. Dah Chong Hong (Japan) Ltd.

(K.K.Taisha) Bouekekou (10). 18-2, Roppongi 5- Chome, Minato - Ku, 106-0032
Tel. 03-3582-0706
Fax: 03-3586-8393, 03-3582-7148.
 1-12

2. Sri Balaji Mill Stores166, R. P. Road, Secunderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India

P.o box: 500003
Telephone: 91-40-27543327
Mobile Phone: 919391385637
Fax: 91-40-27542279
B. ENGINEERING

1. Machinery and Equipment

The list of required plant machinery and equipment is given in Table 5.1. The cost of
machinery and equipment is estimated at Birr12.5 million, of which Birr 10.625 million
is required in foreign currency.

Table 5.1
LIST OF MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT REQUIRED

Sr. Qty. COST(‘000)

No Description (No.) LC FC TC
1 Boiler 1 159.37 903.12 1,062.5.
2 Compressor 1 150.0 850.0 1,000.0
3 Water treatment set 1 159.37 903.12 1,062.50
4 Conveyor 1 140.62 796.87 937.50
5 Feather removing equipment 2 131.25 743.75 875.0
6 Vacuum lung aspirator 1 93.75 531.25 625.0
7 Cooling water tank 1 56.25 318.75 375.0
8 Automatic weighing scale 1 75.0 425.0 500.0
9 Freezing room 1 281.25 1593.75 1,875.0
10 Autoclave 1 84.37 478.12 562.5
11 Digester 1 112.50 637.50 750.0
12 Silo 1 93.75 531.25 625.0
13 Edible entrails line 1 337.50 1912.50 2,250.0
Total 1,875.0 10,625.0 12,500.0

2. Land, Building and Civil Works

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The total area of land required for the plant is about 800 square meters. The total built-
up area will be 500 square meters and the estimated cost of building assuming building
constructed with EGA sheet roof, HCB wall and cement tile floor, at the rate of Birr
2500per m2, will amount to Birr 1,250,000. The production hall will cover 350m 2 areas,
the cold room storage 60m2 and the office will cover 90m2.

According to the Federal Legislation on the Lease Holding of Urban Land (Proclamation
No 272/2002) in principle, urban land permit by lease is on auction or negotiation basis.
However, the time and condition of applying the proclamation shall be determined by the
concerned regional or city government depending on the level of development.

The legislation has also set the maximum on lease period and the payment of lease
prices. The lease period ranges from 99 years for education, cultural research, health,
sport, NGO , religious and residential area to 80 years for industry and 70 years for trade
while the lease payment period ranges from 10 years to 60 years based on the towns’
grade and type of investment.

Moreover, advance payment of lease based on the type of investment ranges from 5% to
10%.The lease price is payable after the grace period annually. Those that pay the entire
amount of the lease will receive 0.5% discount from the total lease value and those that
pay in installments will be charged interest based on the prevailing interest rate of banks.
Moreover, based on the type of investment, two to seven years grace period shall also be
provided.

However, the Federal Legislation on the Lease Holding of Urban Land apart from setting
the maximum has conferred on regional and city governments the power to issue
regulations on the exact terms based on the development level of each region.

In Addis Ababa the City’s Land Administration and Development Authority is directly
responsible in dealing with matters concerning land. However, regarding the
manufacturing sector, industrial zone preparation is one of the strategic intervention
 1-14

measures adopted by the City Administration for the promotion of the sector and all
manufacturing projects are assumed to be located in the developed industrial zones.

Regarding land allocation of industrial zones if the land requirement of the project is
blow 5000 m2, the land lease request is evaluated and decided upon by the Industrial
Zone Development and Coordination Committee of the City’s Investment Authority.
However, if the land request is above 5,000 m2 the request is evaluated by the City’s
Investment Authority and passed with recommendation to the Land Development and
Administration Authority for decision, while the lease price is the same for both cases.

The land lease price in the industrial zones varies from one place to the other. For
example, a land was allocated with a lease price of Birr 284 /m 2 in Akakai-Kalti and Birr
341/ m2 in Lebu and recently the city’s Investment Agency has proposed a lease price of
Birr 346 per m2 for all industrial zones.

Accordingly, in order to estimate the land lease cost of the project profiles it is assumed
that all manufacturing projects will be located in the industrial zones. Therefore, for the
this profile since it is a manufacturing project a land lease rate of Birr 346 per m 2 is
adopted.

On the other hand, some of the investment incentives arranged by the Addis Ababa City
Administration on lease payment for industrial projects are granting longer grace period
and extending the lease payment period. The criterions are creation of job opportunity,
foreign exchange saving, investment capital and land utilization tendency etc.
Accordingly, Table 5.2 shows incentives for lease payment.

Table 5.2
INCENTIVES FOR LEASE PAYMENT OF INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS

Payment Down
Grace Completion Paymen
Scored point period Period t
Above 75% 5 Years 30 Years 10%
From 50 - 75% 5 Years 28 Years 10%
 1-15

From 25 - 49% 4 Years 25 Years 10%

For the purpose of this project profile the average i.e. five years grace period, 28 years
payment completion period and 10% down payment is used. The period of lease for
industry is 60 years .

Accordingly, the total lease cost, for a period of 60 years with cost of Birr 346 per m 2, is
estimated at Birr 16.61 million, of which 10% or Birr 1,660,800 will be paid in advance.
The remaining Birr 14.95 million will be paid in equal installments within 28 years, i.e.,
Birr 533,829 annually.

VI. MANPOWER AND TRAINING REQUIREMENT

A. MANPOWER REQUIREMENT

The total manpower required is 37 persons. The total annual cost of man power is
estimated at Birr 426,750. Details of manpower and annual estimated labour cost
including the fringe benefits are given in Table 6.1.

Table 6.1
MANPOWER REQUIREMENT AND ESTIMATED LABOUR COST

Sr. Description No. of Salary, Birr

No. Persons Monthly Annual
1. Manager 1 3,500 4,2000
2. Secretary 1 900 10,800
3. Production and Technical Head 1 2,800 33,600
4. Quality Controller (chemist) 1 1200 14,400
5. Operator 8 4800 57,600
6. Laborer 10 3500 42,000
7. Mechanic 1 600 7,200
8 Electrician 1 600 7,200
9. Finance and Administration Head 1 2,800 33,600
10. Accountant 1 1,200 14,400
11. Personnel 1 1,200 14,400
 1-16

12. Cashier 1 600 7,200

13. Sales man 1 1,200 14,400
14. Purchaser 1 1,200 14,400
15. Driver 2 450 5,400
16. Guard 4 1400 16,800
17. Store-keeper 1 500 6,000
Total 37 341,400
Employees' benefit (20% of basic salary) 85,350
Grand Total 37 426,750

B. TRAINING REQUIREMENT

The quality controller, production and technic manager, mechanic, electrician and eight
operators need a two months on-the-job training by the skilled technician of the
equipment supplier during erection and commissioning period. The total training cost is
estimated at Birr 50,000.

VII. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

The financial analysis of the chicken meat processing project is based on the data
presented in the previous chapters and the following assumptions:-

Construction period 1 year

Source of finance 30 % equity
70 % loan
Tax holidays 3 years
Bank interest 8.5%
Discount cash flow 8.5%
Accounts receivable 30 days
Raw material local 7 days
Raw material import 90 days
Work in progress 1 days
Finished products 2 days
Cash in hand 5 days
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Accounts payable 30 days

Repair and maintenance 3% of machinery cost

A. TOTAL INITIAL INVESTMENT COST

The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr
25.85 million, of which 41 per cent will be required in foreign currency.

The major breakdown of the total initial investment cost is shown in Table 7.1.

Table 7.1
INITIAL INVESTMENT COST ( ‘000 Birr)

Sr. Cost Items Local Foreign Total

Cost Cost Cost
No.
1 Land lease value 1,660.80 - 1,660.80
2 Building and Civil Work 1,250.00 - 1,250.00
3 Plant Machinery and Equipment 1875.00 10,625.00 12,500.00
4 Office Furniture and Equipment 125.00 - 125.00
5 Vehicle 150.00 - 150.00
6 Pre-production Expenditure* 1236.15 - 1,236.15
7 Working Capital 8,933.88 - 8,933.88
Total Investment cost 15,230.83 10,625.00 25,855.83

* N.B Pre-production expenditure includes interest during construction ( Birr 1.08

million , training (Birr 50 thousand ) and Birr 100 thousand costs of registration,
licensing and formation of the company including legal fees, commissioning expenses,
etc.
 1-18

B. PRODUCTION COST

The annual production cost at full operation capacity is estimated at Birr 60.39
million (see Table 7.2). The raw material cost accounts for 91.05 per cent of the
production cost. The other major components of the production cost are cost of utility and
depreciation which account for 3.40 % and 2.29 % respectively. The remaining 3.26 % is
the share of cost of finance, repair and maintenance, direct labour and other
administration cost.

Table 7.2
ANNUAL PRODUCTION COST AT FULL CAPACITY ('000 BIRR)

Items Cost %
Raw Material and Inputs 54,993.00 91.05
Utilities 2,052.45 3.40
Maintenance and repair 375 0.62
Labour direct 204.84 0.34
Labour overheads 85.35 0.14
Administration Costs 136.56 0.23
Land lease cost - -
Total Operating Costs 57,847.20 95.78
Depreciation 1,385.00 2.29
Cost of Finance 1,165.41 1.93

Total Production Cost 60,397.61 100

C. FINANCIAL EVALUATION

1. Profitability

Based on the projected profit and loss statement, the project will generate a profit through
out its operation life. Annual net profit after tax will grow from Birr 1.78 million to Birr
3.42 million during the life of the project. Moreover, at the end of the project life the
accumulated cash flow amounts to Birr 38.31 million.
 1-19

2. Ratios

In financial analysis financial ratios and efficiency ratios are used as an index or yardstick
for evaluating the financial position of a firm. It is also an indicator for the strength and
weakness of the firm or a project. Using the year-end balance sheet figures and other
relevant data, the most important ratios such as return on sales which is computed by
dividing net income by revenue, return on assets ( operating income divided by assets),
return on equity ( net profit divided by equity) and return on total investment ( net profit
plus interest divided by total investment) has been carried out over the period of the
project life and all the results are found to be satisfactory.

3. Break-even Analysis

The break-even analysis establishes a relationship between operation costs and revenues.
It indicates the level at which costs and revenue are in equilibrium. To this end, the
break-even point of the project including cost of finance when it starts to operate at full
capacity ( year 3) is estimated by using income statement projection.

BE = Fixed Cost = 21 %
Sales – Variable Cost

4. Payback Period

The pay back period, also called pay – off period is defined as the period required to
recover the original investment outlay through the accumulated net cash flows earned by
the project. Accordingly, based on the projected cash flow it is estimated that the
project’s initial investment will be fully recovered within 6 years.

5. Internal Rate of Return

 1-20

The internal rate of return (IRR) is the annualized effective compounded return rate that
can be earned on the invested capital, i.e., the yield on the investment. Put another way,
the internal rate of return for an investment is the discount rate that makes the net present
value of the investment's income stream total to zero. It is an indicator of the efficiency or
quality of an investment. A project is a good investment proposition if its IRR is greater
than the rate of return that could be earned by alternate investments or putting the money
in a bank account. Accordingly, the IRR of this porject is computed to be 18.90 %
indicating the vaiability of the project.

6. Net Present Value

Net present value (NPV) is defined as the total present ( discounted) value of a time
series of cash flows. NPV aggregates cash flows that occur during different periods of
time during the life of a project in to a common measuring unit i.e. present value. It is a
standard method for using the time value of money to appraise long-term projects. NPV
is an indicator of how much value an investment or project adds to the capital invested. In
principal a project is accepted if the NPV is non-negative.

Accordingly, the net present value of the project at 8.5% discount rate is found to be
Birr 10.82 million which is acceptable.

D. ECONOMIC BENEFITS

The project can create employment for 37 persons. In addition to supply of the domestic
needs, the project will generate Birr 9.34 million in terms of tax revenue. The
establishment of such factory will create a back ward linkage effect with the livestock sub
sector.

TERMS USED
 1-21

he internal rate of return on an investment or project is the "annualized effective

compounded return rate" or "rate of return" that makes the net present value (NPV as
NET*1/(1+IRR)^year) of all cash flows (both positive and negative) from a particular
investment equal to zero. It can also be defined as the discount rate at which the present
value of all future cash flow is equal to the initial investment or in other words the rate at
which an investment breaks even.

In more specific terms, the IRR of an investment is the discount rate at which the net
present value of costs (negative cash flows) of the investment equals the net present value
of the benefits (positive cash flows) of the investment.

IRR calculations are commonly used to evaluate the desirability of investments or

projects. The higher a project's IRR, the more desirable it is to undertake the project.
Assuming all projects require the same amount of up-front investment, the project with
the highest IRR would be considered the best and undertaken first.

A firm (or individual) should, in theory, undertake all projects or investments available
with IRRs that exceed the cost of capital. Investment may be limited by availability of
funds to the firm and/or by the firm's capacity or ability to manage numerous projects.

Uses of IRR

Because the internal rate of return is a rate quantity, it is an indicator of the efficiency,
quality, or yield of an investment. This is in contrast with the net present value, which is
an indicator of the value or magnitude of an investment.

An investment is considered acceptable if its internal rate of return is greater than an

established minimum acceptable rate of return or cost of capital. In a scenario where an
investment is considered by a firm that has equity holders, this minimum rate is the cost
of capital of the investment (which may be determined by the risk-adjusted cost of capital
of alternative investments). This ensures that the investment is supported by equity
holders since, in general, an investment whose IRR exceeds its cost of capital adds value
for the company (i.e., it is economically profitable).

As per Hansen, 2004.The rate of return that equates the present value of a project’s cash
inflows with the present value of its cash outflows i.e. it sets out the net present value
equal to zero. Internal rate of return is basically used to measure the efficiency of capital
investment. Internal rate of return is generally required low cost of capital to accept the
project.

Calculation

Given a collection of pairs (time, cash flow) involved in a project, the internal rate of
return follows from the net present value as a function of the rate of return. A rate of
return for which this function is zero is an internal rate of return.
 1-22

Given the (period, cash flow) pairs ( , ) where is a positive integer, the total
number of periods , and the net present value , the internal rate of return is given
by in:

The period is usually given in years, but the calculation may be made simpler if is
calculated using the period in which the majority of the problem is defined (e.g., using
months if most of the cash flows occur at monthly intervals) and converted to a yearly
period thereafter.

Any fixed time can be used in place of the present (e.g., the end of one interval of an
annuity); the value obtained is zero if and only if the NPV is zero.

In the case that the cash flows are random variables, such as in the case of a life annuity,
the expected values are put into the above formula.

Often, the value of cannot be found analytically. In this case, numerical methods or
graphical methods must be used.

Example

If an investment may be given by the sequence of cash flows

Year ( ) Cash flow ( )

0 -123400
1 36200
2 54800
3 48100

then the IRR is given by

In this case, the answer is 5.96% (in the calculation, that is, r = .0596).

Numerical solution

Since the above is a manifestation of the general problem of finding the roots of the
equation , there are many numerical methods that can be used to estimate .
For example, using the secant method, is given by
 1-23

th
where is considered the approximation of the IRR.

This can be found to an arbitrary degree of accuracy. An accuracy of 0.00001% is

provided by Microsoft Excel.

The convergence behaviour of the sequence is governed by the following:

 If the function has a single real root , then the sequence will converge reproducibly
towards .
 If the function has real roots , then the sequence will converge to one of
the roots and changing the values of the initial pairs may change the root to which it converges.
 If function has no real roots, then the sequence will tend towards +∞.

Having when or when may speed up convergence

of to .

Numerical solution for single outflow and multiple inflows

Of particular interest is the case where the stream of payments consists of a single
outflow, followed by multiple inflows occurring at equal periods. In the above notation,
this corresponds to:

In this case the NPV of the payment stream is a convex, strictly decreasing function of
interest rate. There is always a single unique solution for IRR.

Given two estimates and for IRR, the secant method equation (see above) with
will always produce an improved estimate . This is sometimes referred to as the
Hit and Trial (or Trial and Error) method. More accurate interpolation formulas can also
be obtained: for instance the secant formula with correction

(which is most accurate when ) has been shown to be almost

10 times more accurate than the secant formula for a wide range of interest rates and
initial guesses. For example, using the stream of payments {−4000, 1200, 1410, 1875,
1050} and initial guesses and the secant formula with correction
 1-24

gives an IRR estimate of 14.2% (0.7% error) as compared to IRR = 13.2% (7% error)
from the secant method. Other improved formulas may be found in [2]

If applied iteratively, either the secant method or the improved formula will always
converge to the correct solution.

Both the secant method and the improved formula rely on initial guesses for IRR. The
following initial guesses may be used:

where

Here, refers to the NPV of the inflows only (that is, set and compute
NPV).

Decision criterion

If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, accept the project.

If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, reject the project.

Problems with using internal rate of return

As an investment decision tool, the calculated IRR should not be used to rate mutually
exclusive projects, but only to decide whether a single project is worth investing in.
 1-25

NPV vs discount rate comparison for two mutually exclusive projects. Project 'A' has a higher NPV (for
certain discount rates), even though its IRR (= x-axis intercept) is lower than for project 'B' (click to
enlarge)

In cases where one project has a higher initial investment than a second mutually
exclusive project, the first project may have a lower IRR (expected return), but a higher
NPV (increase in shareholders' wealth) and should thus be accepted over the second
project (assuming no capital constraints).

IRR assumes reinvestment of interim cash flows in projects with equal rates of return (the
reinvestment can be the same project or a different project). Therefore, IRR overstates the
annual equivalent rate of return for a project whose interim cash flows are reinvested at a
rate lower than the calculated IRR. This presents a problem, especially for high IRR
projects, since there is frequently not another project available in the interim that can earn
the same rate of return as the first project.

When the calculated IRR is higher than the true reinvestment rate for interim cash flows,
the measure will overestimate — sometimes very significantly — the annual equivalent
return from the project. The formula assumes that the company has additional projects,
with equally attractive prospects, in which to invest the interim cash flows.[3]

This makes IRR a suitable (and popular) choice for analyzing venture capital and other
private equity investments, as these strategies usually require several cash investments
 1-26

throughout the project, but only see one cash outflow at the end of the project (e.g., via
IPO or M&A).

Since IRR does not consider cost of capital, it should not be used to compare projects of
different duration. Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) does consider cost of capital
and provides a better indication of a project's efficiency in contributing to the firm's
discounted cash flow.

In the case of positive cash flows followed by negative ones and then by positive ones
(for example, + + − − − +) the IRR may have multiple values. In this case a discount rate
may be used for the borrowing cash flow and the IRR calculated for the investment cash
flow. This applies for example when a customer makes a deposit before a specific
machine is built.

In a series of cash flows like (−10, 21, −11), one initially invests money, so a high rate of
return is best, but then receives more than one possesses, so then one owes money, so
now a low rate of return is best. In this case it is not even clear whether a high or a low
IRR is better. There may even be multiple IRRs for a single project, like in the example
0% as well as 10%. Examples of this type of project are strip mines and nuclear power
plants, where there is usually a large cash outflow at the end of the project.

In general, the IRR can be calculated by solving a polynomial equation. Sturm's theorem
can be used to determine if that equation has a unique real solution. In general the IRR
equation cannot be solved analytically but only iteratively.

When a project has multiple IRRs it may be more convenient to compute the IRR of the
project with the benefits reinvested.[3] Accordingly, MIRR is used, which has an assumed
reinvestment rate, usually equal to the project's cost of capital.

It has been shown[4] that with multiple internal rates of return, the IRR approach can still
be interpreted in a way that is consistent with the present value approach provided that
the underlying investment stream is correctly identified as net investment or net
borrowing.

See also [5] for a way of identifying the relevant value of the IRR from a set of multiple
IRR solutions.

Despite a strong academic preference for NPV, surveys indicate that executives prefer
IRR over NPV.[6] Apparently, managers find it easier to compare investments of different
sizes in terms of percentage rates of return than by dollars of NPV. However, NPV
remains the "more accurate" reflection of value to the business. IRR, as a measure of
investment efficiency may give better insights in capital constrained situations. However,
when comparing mutually exclusive projects, NPV is the appropriate measure.
 1-27

Mathematics

Mathematically, the value of the investment is assumed to undergo exponential growth or

decay according to some rate of return (any value greater than −100%), with
discontinuities for cash flows, and the IRR of a series of cash flows is defined as any rate
of return that results in a net present value of zero (or equivalently, a rate of return that
results in the correct value of zero after the last cash flow).

Thus, internal rate(s) of return follow from the net present value as a function of the rate
of return. This function is continuous. Towards a rate of return of −100% the net present
value approaches infinity with the sign of the last cash flow, and towards a rate of return
of positive infinity the net present value approaches the first cash flow (the one at the
present). Therefore, if the first and last cash flow have a different sign there exists an
internal rate of return. Examples of time series without an IRR:

 Only negative cash flows — the NPV is negative for every rate of return.
 (−1, 1, −1), rather small positive cash flow between two negative cash flows; the NPV is a
quadratic function of 1/(1 + r), where r is the rate of return, or put differently, a quadratic function
of the discount rate r/(1 + r); the highest NPV is −0.75, for r = 100%.

In the case of a series of exclusively negative cash flows followed by a series of

exclusively positive ones, the resulting function of the rate of return is continuous and
monotonically decreasing from positive infinity (when the rate of return approaches -
100%) to the value of the first cash flow (when the rate of return approaches infinity), so
there is a unique rate of return for which it is zero. Hence, the IRR is also unique (and
equal). Although the NPV-function itself is not necessarily monotonically decreasing on
its whole domain, it is at the IRR.

Similarly, in the case of a series of exclusively positive cash flows followed by a series of
exclusively negative ones the IRR is also unique.

Finally, by Descartes' rule of signs, the number of internal rates of return can never be
more than the number of changes in sign of cash flow.

Further, it is argued that a country's oilseeds export may fail to grow as rapidly as the
world average for three reasons. First, exports may be concentrated in commodity groups
for which demand tends to grow relatively at a low rate. Second, export may be going
mainly to relatively stagnant regions/blocs. Third, the country in question may have been
unwilling or unable to compete effectively with other sources of supply in the
international market. For this purpose, exports from rest of the world are treated as
competitor to Ethiopia. Therefore; regional trading arrangements (within Africa) should
be set to put in economic efficiency, trade, investment, and growth in the region.