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Soilen & Benhayoun 2021 (CBDC Acceptance)
Soilen & Benhayoun 2021 (CBDC Acceptance)
Soilen & Benhayoun 2021 (CBDC Acceptance)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/0265-2323.htm
Abstract
Purpose – The authors investigate household acceptance of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by
drawing on the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and institutional trust theory.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors build a research model including six hypotheses and
quantitatively analyze it using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and importance–
performance map analysis (IPMA) based on 282 answers to a survey questionnaire.
Findings – The continuous adoption of CBDCs by households is highly probable and is fostered by its
expected high performance, the social recommendations and the existence of facilitating conditions.
Nevertheless, institutions’ efforts to propose a flexible and understandable currency can benefit its adoption
only if these institutions also strive to build households’ trust in the currency’s system.
Originality/value – The authors provide a full review of the emerging literature on CBDCs and suggest that
digital currency offerings can be divided into centralized, semi-centralized and de-centralized control in a
meaningful taxonomy. The authors also complement extant studies on CBDCs that mostly apprehend its
operational challenges by focusing on the customer side and provide implications to the launching of CBDCs by
uncovering the customer-specific determinants of their adoption.
Keywords Digital currency, Institutional trust, Technology adoption, Household acceptance
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
Technologies are rapidly changing the way we make financial transactions (Ashworth and
Goodhart, 2020). We are seeing increased competition between banks due to ever more
advanced forms of programmable money. Today cash and reserve balances are available
only to selected institutions, mainly banks, but this may be about to change. In a
programmable world, users are put in the center, searching to omit middlemen and
institutions like lawyers, brokers and bankers first of all to have faster and cheaper
transactions. These are some of the changes and underlying aspects which are pushing for
the introduction of digital currencies in our societies. On the route of digital currency
development (Nejad, 2016), the literature usually underlines two broad directions:
cryptocurrencies (decentralized control) and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) with
centralized control, which are the focus of this research. We examine how household
customers would behave if a CBDC was introduced and what this means for policymakers.
Cryptocurrencies, which rely on blockchain, are not governed by governments or banks.
Cryptocurrencies and other global programmable money in the form of anonymous systems
threaten nation–states as they take away control of both monetary and fiscal policy from
governments. If you forget the password the money is gone, with no possibility of retrieval.
Customers have already lost billions, mostly due to ignorance. In contrast, a CBDC is any
electronic, fiat liability of a central bank that can be used to settle payments or as a store of
value. It can be viewed as electronic narrow money and in some sense already exists in the International Journal of Bank
Marketing
form of central bank reserves (Meaning et al., 2018). Mancini-Griffoli et al. (2018) define CBDCs © Emerald Publishing Limited
0265-2323
narrower as a digital form of existing fiat money, issued by the central bank and intended as a DOI 10.1108/IJBM-04-2021-0156
IJBM legal tender. Most ongoing CBDC projects, such as the e-krona are fiat-based, but this is not a
required part of the definition. It can also be non-fiat-based, for example it can be based on
gold or other precious metal. An alternative and broader definition of CBDC is one where
reserves no longer exist separately but have been subsumed into the CBDC system (Kumhof
and Noone, 2018).
Centralized forms of digital currencies are still mainly in their testing phase to refine their
technical and operational functionalities and provide learnings to institutions worldwide.
Indeed, Bordo and Levin (2017) remind us that the financial sector consists of conservative
institutions and may want to learn from the experience of “early adopters” of CBDCs, even if
such a deferral involves foregone benefits. Boar et al. (2020) show that 10% of the central
banks surveyed are likely to issue a CBDC for the public in the short term, representing 20%
of the world’s population. Cross-border spillover effects are expected so that collaboration
through international vehicles such as the BIS (Bank for International Settlements)
Innovation Hub will be necessary. In this respect, the e-yuan is being tested in several Chinese
cities and is likely to be the first major CBDC on the market. A pilot test is underway for the e-
krona by Accenture initially scheduled to report on findings in early 2021 but now extended
to February 2022 with the test of an off-line version added.
One big issue with CBDCs is if the currency should be traceable or not. This would give
more control to the nation–state than what it has today. Then, from a technical perspective,
there is the question if CBDCs should be token-based or account-based and the degree of
anonymity allowed by users. Another key question is whether CBDCs should be interest-
bearing. de Lis and Gouveia (2018) lay out four scenarios depending on whether CBDCs
should be restricted or universal; identified or anonymous; yield-bearing or non-yield bearing.
The authors think that the less disruptive scenarios (anonymous and non-yield bearing) have
a greater chance of being rolled out first. The adoption of CBDCs is also thought to be a
function of cash use. Khiaonarong and Humphrey (2019) study the level and trend in cash
used for 11 countries using four different measures and estimate that it is falling by an
average of 1.3–2.2% a year. The average reduction in cash use out to 2026 is forecast to slow
to 1.4% a year. Gnan and Masciandaro (2018) point out that CBDCs can reduce costs
associated with physical cash handling, estimated to cost at least 1/2% of gross domestic
product (GDP) in European Union (EU) countries. Physical cash involves high storage costs,
estimated to 0.5–1% of the value stored, compared to negligible costs for CBDCs.
With CBDCs, we are rethinking the entire financial system, but major questions are still on
the drawing table. There are many non-technical problems to be solved. For one thing, there is
no research on household acceptance. Kiff et al. (2020) describe an implementation process for
CBDCs where the first step is to identify the needs and problems that a retail CBDC would
address. The marketing side–asking what people want–is missing in these papers, even when
it is expected, like in the three steps suggested by Mancini-Griffoli et al. (2018). The problem is
well illustrated in the CBDC pyramid of Auer and B€ohme (2020) which is divided into two
parts, “from consumer needs’’ on the left-hand side to “CBDC design choices” on the right-
hand side. So far practically all research has focused on right-hand side problems. This not
only illustrates a considerable research gap in the CBDC literature but shows that the process
has started in the wrong end; designing different models before it is known what households
and firms want. Accordingly, this paper aims at empirically covering this gap by
investigating how the factors characterizing households’ perception of CBDCs would affect
the adoption of such currencies. For this purpose, we rely on two theoretical frameworks: the
unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (Venkatesh et al., 2003) that is usually
applied to understand the adoption of different technologies, and the institutional trust theory
(Luhman, 1979) to take into account the multilevel setting in which a technology is used and
ascertain the perceived risks of the technology’s system (Sarker et al., 2020). Hence, this study
contributes to the existing literature by unveiling the key customer-related determinants of
CBDC adoption and the way they jointly influence user behavior regarding this currency. It Acceptance of
also highlights the central role of trust in the currency system within this specific adoption central bank
context and provides evidence for the complementarity of our two theoretical foundations to
fully understand the motivations of this adoption phenomenon. From a practical standpoint,
digital
we raise awareness of policymakers on the main determinants that they should be attentive to currency
while designing and implementing CBDCs and provide them with practical guidance to act on
these customer-specific factors.
The article is structured as follows: Section 2 is devoted to a review on CBDCs, while
Section 3 details our two theoretical foundations and the hypotheses that we derive from
them. Section 4 introduces the research methodology whose results are presented in Section 5.
The study’s main academic implications are discussed in Section 6 and its practical
recommendations are provided in Section 7. Finally, Section 8 lists the research limitations,
and Section 9 proposes a general conclusion.
2.2 The Libra/Diem and the digital Yuan (semi-centralized and centralized control)
One American social media company, Facebook, and one Chinese e-commerce company,
Alibaba, are experimenting with forms of digital payment systems. Both projects have been
halted by their respective governments. Since December 2020, Facebook has started a new
project named Diem. Allen et al. (2020) point out that Facebook has the reach to make the
Libra instantly available to people in large parts of the world, including 1.7 bn households
unbanked today. This has catalyzed the global CBDC discussion. The Libra was a permission
blockchain-based system based on Stablecoin, backed by a basket of assets. The Diem will be
pegged only to the USD. This has appeased the Fed to a certain point as they see the Diem less
as a competitor but Facebook has still not shown how they will prevent money laundering.
The original idea was to make Libra similar to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but it was soon
realized that this would make it less stable and more speculative. Tischer (2020) is a skeptic of
the Libra project, arguing that it is not about democratizing money as the owners argue, but
on the contrary, making it exclusive. The Libra does not offer cutting-edge technology, but its
innovation is organizational overturning the decentralized character of blockchain and re-
centralizing it to the tech firm. This was also a reason why the Libra was halted. The Diem
project aims to make the currency independent of Facebook and tied to the USD, registering
with the US treasury as a money services business. The project is still on the drawing board
with several launching dates passed.
Alipay’s digital payment, which takes care of transactions on Alibaba’s commercial
platforms, is a digital currency based on the renminbi or yuan. Its use today is larger than that
IJBM of PayPal. Alipay’s attempt to launch its digital currency was halted by the central bank of
China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). At the same time, PBOC has filed more than 80
patent applications related to digital currency (Allen et al., 2020) and launched their CBDC
called the digital currency electronic payment (DCEP). PBOC has built multiple payment
systems for various scenarios to increase the transparency of information, monitor the flow of
money more effectively, enhance regulation and strengthen the efficiency of payments in a
multi-tiered environment (Qian, 2019). DCEP is also being tested on WeChat Pay and Alipay
(Peters and Green, 2020). According to Shi and Zhou (2020), the DCEP is a general-purpose
digital token that adopts a complex multi-layer hybrid architecture design. Alipay may be
able to launch its digital currency later but will then need to fulfill the requirement as a
financial institution. The alleged house arrest of Jack Ma Alibaba’s founder may be related to
his resistance to sharing user data with the central government which is one of the
requirements for financial institutions (Wei, 2021). The halt of Ants’ initial public offering
(IPO) also slows down the process of privatization of money allowing the PBOC time to catch
up and launch the DCEP with equal emphasis on efficiency and security.
Performance H2
expectancy +
Behavioral H4
Use behavior
intentions +
H3
Social influence +
Facilitating H5
conditions + Direct effect
Indirect effect
Figure 1.
Research model Gender Age Experience
banking technology (Hong et al., 2008; Zhou et al., 2010) since they might perceive him or her Acceptance of
as trendy and professional by using this technology (Oliveira et al., 2014). Therefore, we central bank
hypothesize that:
digital
H3. Social influence positively affects the behavioral intention to use a CBDC. currency
Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) stated that behavioral intentions are determinant to use behavior.
The intention is the desire to perform the behavior and is not yet in the form of behavior.
Behavior is real action or activity that is carried out (Davis, 1989). Regarding banking
technologies, several studies underlined that a user’s intention to use the technologies will
determine his or her usage behavior (Gupta and Arora, 2019; Purwanto and Loisa, 2020;
Solekah and Hilmawan, 2021). Thus, we state that:
H4. Behavioral intention to use a CBDC positively affects the use behavior regarding this
currency system.
Facilitating conditions reflect the effect of a user’s knowledge, ability and resources and are
considered to have a positive direct effect on technology adoption (Venkatesh et al., 2003). The
digital currency as a new service requires users to have certain skills such as configuring and
operating devices to connect to the currency network. If users do not have the necessary
resources and operational skills, they will not adopt the banking technology (Shin et al., 2010).
When an individual believes that an institutional and technical infrastructure exists to
support the use of banking technology, then he or she is likely to accept and implement this
technology to perform different intended tasks (Oliveira et al., 2014). Hence, we propose that:
H5. Facilitating conditions positively influence the use behavior of a CBDC.
The ITT suggests that trust is a reduction of complexity and an internal force in human social
systems (Luhmann, 1979, 1986). The author separates between trust in systems and persons
and uses money as an example of the former and friendship as an example of the latter. In the
case of a technology, trust in its system is an important factor in the level of its adoption
particularly when this technology involves social uncertainty and financial risk (Gefen et al.,
2003). Trust is increased by means of effort expectancy that indicates the cognitive effort
needed to utilize the technology (Venkatesh et al., 2003), because the user assumes that the
technology provider is investing in the relationship by making the technology easily
accessible (Gefen et al., 2003). Heightened levels of trust would then reduce the social
complexity a user faces in digital currency as the latter can subjectively rule out undesirable
behaviors of the banking institutions, which encourages his or her acceptance and use of the
currency (Zarifis et al., 2014). Therefore, we propose that:
H6. Effort expectancy has an indirect impact on use behavior through trust.
Additional to these hypothesized structural impacts, we included in the model variables with
moderating influences as in UTAUT (Figure 1). We coded gender as a 0/1 dummy variable (1
male/0 female), and age and experience as dummy variables that took ordinal values of 1–7 to
capture the increasing user’s age and his/her level of familiarity with digital currencies. We
did not include voluntariness as a moderator because CBDC is expected to be a voluntary,
public option that supplements physical cash and private-sector payment options (Atako,
2021). This voluntary usage is even crucial to the success of CBDC (Choi et al., 2021).
4. Methodology
4.1 Data collection
We elaborated a survey questionnaire based on existing literature. Given the nascent nature
of digital currencies, we could not find measurement scales of trust and UTAUT constructs
IJBM specifically formulated for this technology. Therefore, we adapted the UTAUT original scales
proposed by Venkatesh et al. (2003) and extant scales on trust in technologies (Gefen et al.,
2003) to the context of this study. In our formulations, we considered the propositions of Auer
and B€ohme (2020), which is the only study matching the consumer needs with the design
choices of CBDC. The authors identified six different user needs of digital currencies, namely
cross-border payments, accessibility, exchange privacy, operations’ robustness, convenience
for real-time payments and cash-like peer-to-peer functionalities. Appendix summarizes the
constructs, their associated items and the references used to formulate these items, including
the study of Auer and B€ohme (2020). The variables were assessed using a seven-point Likert
scale ranging from Strongly disagree (1) to Strongly agree (7). The survey pretesting was
realized by 10 scholars and professionals involved in the digital currencies’ stream.
To determine the sample size that is sufficient for the regression approach to be used in
this study, we performed an a priori power test following the recommendations of Cohen
(1988), with G*Power 3.1.9.7 software (Faul et al., 2009). By considering the parameters of
five predictors (Figure 1), an effect size of 0.15 (moderated value), a test power level of 90%
and a maximum allowed error of 5%, the software calculated 267 responses as the
minimum adequate sample size. To form a sample of respondents, we employed a
convenience sampling method (Deming, 1990) that is used when randomization across the
studied population is not possible. This non-probability technique is often applied in bank
marketing studies (e.g. Chauhan et al., 2019; Farah et al., 2018; Sharif et al., 2020) and is
particularly appropriate for the present research. Indeed, considering that CBDC is an
emerging technology in its early implementation stages, there are no databases nor
statistics on CBDC adoption that would have enabled the use of probabilistic sampling. A
convenience sample meets certain practical criteria, such as easy accessibility to
respondents, their availability at a given time or their willingness to participate (Etikan
et al., 2016). Hence, we adopted a voluntary, non-remunerated and anonymous participation
approach to form our sample. The questionnaire link was made available to potential
participants through the researchers’ professional social networks. This type of social
media service is solely focused on interactions and relationships of a business nature.
Participants were requested, in their turn, to share the questionnaire link with their
professional networks. Such snowball technique has proven its efficiency in research
recently published in the International Journal of Bank Marketing (e.g. Eren, 2021; Zainudin
et al., 2019). The study setting was, therefore, non-contrived and one-shot (cross-sectional),
with minimal interference from the researchers. Over one month from January to February
2021, a sample size of 282 complete questionnaires was obtained. Table 1 describes the
characteristics of this sample.
5. Results
5.1 Non-response bias and common method bias
We tested potential non-response bias using Levene’s test for equality of variances and a t-
test for equality of means between early and late respondents. These tests indicated no
difference in means and variation between the two groups and, consequently, no evidence of
significant difference within the population (Armstrong and Overton, 1977). Regarding the
common method variance, as this study relies on data from self-reported measures in a one-
time survey, we used procedural and statistical methods to address common method bias as
recommended by Podsakoff et al. (2003). For the procedural methods, participation in the
study was voluntary and the process guaranteed anonymity and data confidentiality. The
dependent and independent variables included in the questionnaire were introduced on
different pages of the electronic survey, preventing respondents from inferring cause–effect
relationships among the constructs. For the statistical procedures, we calculated Harman’s
single-factor based on an exploratory factor analysis with all independent and dependent
variables. This test resulted in a first factor that included only 32.14% of the observed
variance, therefore suggesting that common method bias is likely not a problem in the study.
In addition, we implemented a full collinearity test based on variance inflation factors (VIFs).
IJBM This test specifies that a VIF value greater than 5.0 suggests the existence of common method
bias (Ringle et al., 2015). Our estimations showed that VIF values ranged from 1.102 to 4.078
thereby providing evidence for the absence of common method bias in this research.
Importance Performance
currency. Second, our results show that the Behavioral Intentions of households regarding
the use of CBDC has very high importance but relatively low performance. Accordingly,
central banks should increase the performance aspects captured by households, regarding
the continuous, frequent and daily use of CBDC. Third, while Facilitating Conditions and
Effort Expectancy were found to have very high performances, their importance was
relatively low. Thus, central banks must make sure that customers are aware of the necessity
of having access to resources and knowledge to make good use of CBDC, without providing
substantial efforts in getting used to the currency system. This would help them appreciate
the banks’ efforts in providing an ergonomic currency with adequate infrastructure and Acceptance of
continuously available support services for the customers. central bank
Fourth, we observe that Social Influence and Trust in the currency system both have
relatively low performances and importance. Regarding the Social Influence construct,
digital
central banks must, on the one hand, struggle to diffuse CBDC across the population and currency
clearly communicate on this generalized adoption. They should, on the other hand, make sure
that households grasp the importance of a wide adoption of CBDC across the customers’
acquaintances for example in terms of transactions’ interoperability. Regarding the Trust
construct, the IPMA result is particularly critical given that our PLS-SEM findings unveil a
mediating role of this variable on the link between Effort Expectancy and Use Behavior with
no significant impact of Effort Expectancy on households’ intention to systematically use a
CBDC. Accordingly, by increasing trust in the currency system and inciting customers to
give great importance to this criterion to adopt the CBDC, central banks would make it easier
for households to appreciate the importance of dealing with a currency system that is easy to
use and to appraise the banks’ efforts to propose such a system.
7. Practical recommendations
Our study shows that CBDCs are not only accepted by a younger generation, something which
may have been expected, but by a majority of potential users. Hence, governments should strive
to issue CBDCs as this currency can be a tool by which the state would create a more efficient
and safer welfare system through direct, immediate and more flexible payments.
In particular, the IPMA conducted in this research provides interpretations of the
managerial actions to be undertaken by policymakers regarding the UTAUT factors to
promote the adoption of CBDCs. We propose that central banks should increase the perceived
benefits of CBDCs stemming from the continuous, frequent and daily use of this currency by
households and by their acquaintances. They should also make sure that households
appraise the importance of having access to knowledge and support from the central banks to
facilitate the appropriation of CBDCs.
Our results additionally suggest that CBDCs can be issued by governments as a way to
regain better control of monetary policy if the users have trust in the currency’s system. In fact,
we show that trust represents the vehicle through which the ease of use of the currency system
fosters its adoption. A fiat-based CBDC is no alternative for a currency with little trust.
Governments must first make sure the public trusts the currency, fiat-based or non-fiat-based,
before they launch a digital version. Our IPMA findings even propose that central banks should
struggle to make a “commercial” use of this trust to get households to adopt CBDCs.
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Appendix Acceptance of
central bank
digital
Construct Items References currency
Performance This digital currency system should . . . Venkatesh et al. (2012), Davis
expectancy (Perf- Perf- . . . be useful for operating my (1989), Gefen et al. (2003), Auer
Exp) Exp1 financial transactions and B€ohme (2020)
Perf- . . . improve my performance (real-
Exp2 time, cost, etc.) in operating my
financial transactions
Perf- . . . enable me to operate my financial
Exp3 transactions more quickly
Perf- . . . enhance my effectiveness in
Exp4 operating my financial transactions
Perf- . . . make it easier to operate my
Exp5 financial transactions
Perf- . . . increase my productivity in
Exp6 operating my financial transactions
Effort expectancy It is necessary for me . . . Venkatesh et al. (2012), Davis
(Eff-Exp) Eff- . . . to be able to easily use this digital (1989), Gefen et al. (2003), Auer
Exp1 currency system and B€ohme (2020)
Eff- . . . to easily learn how to use this
Exp2 digital currency system
Eff- . . . to easily become skillful at using
Exp3 this digital currency system
Eff- . . . to easily use this digital currency
Exp4 system the way I want to use it
Eff- . . . to flexibly interact with this digital
Exp5 currency system
Eff- . . . to have a clear and understandable
Exp6 interaction with this digital currency
system
Facilitating Using this digital currency system will Venkatesh et al. (2003), Venkatesh
conditions (Facil- require . . . et al. (2012)
Cond) Facil- . . . that I have access to
Cond1 complementary resources (new
devices, internet)
Facil- . . . that I acquire new knowledge
Cond2
Facil- . . . high compatibility with other
Cond3 technologies I use
Facil- . . . that I easily get help from others
Cond4 (professional support, competent
acquaintances) in case of difficulties to
use this system
Social influence People who . . . Venkatesh et al. (2003), Venkatesh
(Soc-Inf) Soc-Inf1 . . . are important to me should suggest et al. (2012)
that I use this digital currency system
Soc-Inf2 . . . influence my behavior should
suggest that I use this digital currency
system
Soc-Inf3 . . . I value the opinions should suggest
that I use this digital currency system Table A1.
Constructs and their
(continued ) associated items
IJBM Construct Items References
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