Fisheries Research 148 (2013) 18–26

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Fisheries Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/fishres

Linking physiological, population and socio-economic assessments of

climate-change impacts on fisheries
Ana Norman-López a,∗ , Éva Plagányi b , Tim Skewes b , Elvira Poloczanska a ,
Darren Dennis b , Mark Gibbs b , Peter Bayliss b
a
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, CMAR, PO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
b
CSIRO Wealth from Ocean Flagship, CMAR, PO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Climate change is postulated to influence marine resources worldwide with consequent ramifications for
Received 18 October 2011 the management of commercially important fisheries. There is a need to understand the likely impacts of
Received in revised form 18 February 2012 climate change affecting the biology of fisheries at each of the different levels: (a) individual (reproductive
Accepted 20 February 2012
potential, larval settlement, spatial distribution); (b) population (carrying capacity, productivity, spatial
distribution); (c) multi-species (replacement of one fishery by another) and (d) ecosystem (dependent
Keywords:
predator species, shifts in community composition). When addressing these problems it is important
Climate
to integrate information across a range of dimensions pertaining to the resource and stakeholders,
Input–output analysis
Panulirus ornatus
using a combination of biological, economic and social research elements. This is necessary for a bet-
Torres Strait ter understanding of the likely changes to catches and in turn the possible socio-economic implications.
Risk assessment We assessed the impact and likelihood of a range of plausible climate impacts on a number of lobster
life history parameters, using the Torres Strait tropical rock lobster Panulirus ornatus as a case study. The
hypothesised high risk effects of climate change were implemented through modifications to the lob-
ster stock assessment model. Projected catches and an input–output model of the Australian economy
were used to determine the flow-on effects of climate-change impacts affecting this lobster fishery. We
highlight the potential of this combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches as a pragmatic first
step to exploring climate-change impacts on a fishery and summarise implications for management. Our
results suggest that there may be positive as well as negative consequences. Our integrated methodol-
ogy is a step towards linking the interrelation between different variables and fishery productivity, and
quantifying the resultant socio-economic effects to fishers, their communities and national economies.
Crown Copyright © 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Fish populations respond to a variety of natural and anthro-
pogenic pressures, which coupled with density-dependent pro-
cesses result in changes to stock status and resultant management
responses for targeted species. Climate change is an additional
impact on top of existing pressures that will affect fish stocks in
different ways. Studies have concentrated on the direct (growth,
reproductive capacity, mortality, distribution, etc.) and indirect
(structure of ecosystems) consequences of climate change on
marine species, populations and fishery production. However,
concurrent pressures from other stressors including fishing, pol-
lution, ecological and socio-economic interactions can reduce the
resilience of marine fish stocks and as such intensify the effects from
climate change. A more holistic approach is to evaluate the likely
∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: ana.norman@csiro.au (A. Norman-López).
effects from climate change together with other factors impacting
marine systems (Hollowed et al., 2009). This could provide a more
accurate representation of future changes in fishery productivity
which in turn can be used to assess the expected socio-economic
effects on dependent fishing sectors, and on regional and national
economies (MacNeil et al., 2010).
We outline a methodology for linking and quantifying the bio-
logical and socio-economic implications of climate change on a
fishery. The biological effects from climate change are consid-
ered with respect to individuals, populations and the ecosystem.
Using a lobster stock assessment model these effects are integrated
with other natural and anthropogenic effects already impacting
the fishery. This model then projects future changes to catches
that would allow the fishery to continue operating sustainably
(Plagányi et al., 2009). The employment and income effects follow-
ing changes to catches are then estimated for the dependent fishing
sectors, the region and the national economy using an input–output
model (Norman-López and Pascoe, 2011; Norman-López et al.,
2011).

0165-7836/$ – see front matter. Crown Copyright © 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2012.02.026
 A. Norman-López et al. / Fisheries Research 148 (2013) 18–26
Rock lobsters may be particularly vulnerable to climate change
given their apparent sensitivity to associated physical param-
eters such as temperature, winds, ENSO event frequency and
ocean acidity (Caputi et al., 2010; Frusher et al., 2007). Given
their dual role as a commercially highly valuable resource and
their “keystone species” role in maintaining ecosystem structure
(Barkai and Branch, 1988; Barkai and McQuaid, 1988; Barrett et al.,
2009; Haley et al., 2011; Shears and Babcock, 2002; Ye et al.,
2008), they are an important species to focus our understanding
of possible climate-change effects, and appropriate management
responses.
The Torres Strait tropical rock lobster (Panulirus ornatus) (TRL)
was selected for our study because of the long time series of
empirical information and relatively good understanding of lob-
ster ecology (Pitcher et al., 1992; Ye et al., 2005). Further, this
fishery is unusually complex: it overlaps the international bor-
der between Papua New Guinea and Australia and is exploited
by two different sectors within Australia; indigenous inhabi-
tants (Islanders hold traditional inhabitant boat – TIB licenses)
and non-traditional fishers (non-Islanders operate as transfer-
able vessel holders – TVH) (Fairhead and Hohnen, 2007). The
strong dependency of local fishers on rock lobster is likely to fur-
ther complicate the management of the resource under climate
change.
The stated objectives for this fishery include maintaining the
spawning stock at levels that meet or exceed the level required
to produce the maximum sustainable yield, to optimise the value
of the fishery and in accordance with the Torres Strait Treaty,
to protect the traditional way of life and livelihood of traditional
inhabitants, particularly in relation to their traditional fishing for
TRL. The fishery is currently the most important fishery to Islanders
and provides significant financial independence for Island com-
munities in the region. More than 15% of employment in Islander
communities is estimated to come directly from lobster fishing
(Arthur, 2005). Tropical rock lobster is also a highly valuable fish-
ery for non-Islanders, with this sector’s numbers restricted to
promote the socio-economic development and maintain the tra-
ditional lifestyle of Torres Strait Islanders. In 2008–2009, only 10
non-Islander vessels were operating in the fishery compared to 279
Islander vessels. Nevertheless, non-Islander vessels caught nearly
43% (99 t) of the total Australian catch (228 t) because they are
larger, and apply more effort. In addition, unlike Islander vessels,
non-Islander vessels supply most catches live obtaining a higher
market price and hence revenue. Overall the total value of the fish-
ery in 2008–2009 was estimated to be AU$7 million (Ward et al.,
2009).
Climatic changes to sea surface temperatures, ocean acidifica-
tion, sea level rise, cyclone intensity, rainfall, river flows and so
forth, are expected to affect catches (Hobday et al., 2008). Changes
in Torres Strait lobster catches will impact the fisheries’ profitabil-
ity, fishers’ wages and employment. This in turn will change the
fishers’ expenditure/consumption on other industries’ products
produced within and outside the Torres Strait region. In addi-
tion, changes in catches will require the fishing industry to adjust
its demand for fishing inputs (i.e., fuel, labour, repairs), and the
supply of lobster products to intermediate (i.e., processors) and
final demand sectors (i.e., restaurants) located in the Torres Strait
region, other Australian regions and internationally. This will have
subsequent socio-economic flow-on effects in terms of produc-
tion, incomes and employment to other upstream and downstream
industries.
In this paper, we assessed the plausible impact of climate
change operating on a range of levels on the P. ornatus popula-
tion, summarise the implications for management, and quantify
the resultant socio-economic effects to fishers, their communities
and national economies.
19
2. Methods
The possible biological and socio-economic effects of climate
change on the P. ornatus fishery in Torres Strait were investigated
in three steps. In the first step, we assessed the potential impact on
several rock lobster biological response variables from changes in
an array of climate change-related physical variables and ecolog-
ical components. Potential impacts were then assigned to a “risk”
category (high, medium or low) depending on the likelihood of
the climate-related change and the size of the potential impact
(or consequence) on the biological response variable. From this,
two scenarios were outlined and their combined impacts on the
lobster biological response variables were estimated; a high risk
impact scenario and a combined high and medium risk impact
scenario. The latter scenario was combined because the medium
risk impacts are additional to the high risk impacts. In the second
step, the hypothesised high risk and high plus medium risk sce-
narios of potential impacts were implemented as changes in rock
lobster production through modifications to a lobster stock assess-
ment model. Finally, in the third step, projected catches obtained
from the lobster stock assessment model were incorporated to
an input–output model of the Australian economy to determine
the income and employment flow-on effects to the regional and
national economy.
2.1. Step 1. Assessing risks of climate impacts on the rock lobster
population
Our estimation of risk is similar to traditional risk assess-
ment approaches, however, in this case, risk is “risk of impact”,
not “risk of negative impact”, as we consider both detrimen-
tal and advantageous outcomes. Risk rankings for potential
impacts on lobster biological variables from climate-change
related changes in physical variables were formulated from the
likelihood of the climate-related change and the consequence
that the change has on the lobster biological response vari-
able.
The likelihood and the projected changes to several physical
variables in Torres Strait due to climate change were obtained from
the literature (Table 1). The projections were considered for short-
term to 2030 as this has higher management relevance than longer
term projections. Projections of global warming were considered
only for the mid–high range greenhouse gas emission scenario
(A1B) (IPCC, 2007) as there is little deviation by 2030 among differ-
ent emission scenarios. Marine ecosystems will also be indirectly
impacted through flow-on effects from changes to primary produc-
tivity and disruption to food webs (Poloczanska et al., 2007), and we
integrated these impacts where possible. Likelihood scores of the
physical parameter changing were assigned based on confidence
ratings by experts in the field (Poloczanska et al., 2007); >70% like-
lihood was considered as high, <30% low and intermediate values
medium (Table 1).
The potential impacts of changes to physical variables and
related changes to three critical habitats (deep epibenthic com-
munities, coral reefs and seagrass beds) on a range of life history
variables (growth, mortality, movement, distribution and repro-
duction) were assessed separately for three rock lobster life history
stages (larvae, juvenile and adult) in Torres Strait. Each potential
impact was described and quantified to the fullest extent possible
using information from literature reviews, unpublished experi-
mental studies and expert consultation. Considerable uncertainty
exists for most combinations of physical and (lobster) biological
variables. We took the approach, in this case, of using all avail-
able information to outline likely potential impacts for use in the
subsequent stages of the analysis. Where no information was avail-
able, that combination of physical and biological variables was
20 A. Norman-López et al. / Fisheries Research 148 (2013) 18–26

Table 1
Climate-change related changes to different physical parameters in Torres Strait by 2030 under scenario A1B.

Physical parameter Projections 2030 Likelihood (expert weighting) Source and Justification

Sea surface +1 ◦ C 80% SSTs around Australia have warmed (+0.7 ◦ C) since the early 20th
temperature (SST) century and are highly likely to continue warming (CSIRO, 2007;
Lough, 2009). Greater warming expected in shallow areas (<30 m)
Sea level rise 5–15 cm 80% Recent (1993–2008) sea level rise is greatest to the north of Australia;
global sea levels projected to continue rising during the 21st century
and beyond (Church et al., 2009)
Current systems, No change 25% Large internal tidal currents with westerly set in winter and easterly
Torres Strait set in summer largely driven by tidal phase differences between Coral
Sea and Arafura Sea, and wind fields during monsoons. Pattern appears
stable in down-scaled BlueLink projections (Oke et al., 2007)
Current systems, Coral +5% 10% Coral Sea Gyre and East Australian Current (EAC) driven by the South
Sea Gyre Pacific Gyre. EAC, the western boundary of the South Pacific Gyre, is
projected to strengthen by 5% by 2030 driven by latitudinal shift in the
westerly wind fields (Cai, 2006; Cai et al., 2005)
Storms and cyclones 2030: small increase in 10% Global projections for cyclones are uncertain but some suggestion of
intensity increases in intensity with warming (Meehl et al., 2007)
Rainfall −10% to +10% 20% Rainfall impacts river flow which in turn affects lobsters. Projections of
rainfall highly uncertain in northern Australia (CSIRO, 2007). Some
studies indicate little freshwater incursion into Torres Strait from
rivers (Hemer et al., 2004)
Ocean acidification Very small change, <0.05 units 50% High variability in coastal zone (Dai et al., 2009). Still expected to
decline around Australia (Poloczanska et al., 2007). River run-off could
lessen buffering effect
Phytoplankton 50–100% 20% Uncertain but modelling indicates increased phytoplankton
productivity productivity in Coral Sea (Brown et al., 2010)

not assigned a potential impact. Interactions between potential
impacts were taken into consideration by the application of an
iterative approach to formulating potential impacts: all potential
impacts were assessed in a cyclical fashion several times and poten-
tial interactions between them were accounted for in the final
assessment. In this fashion, final outcomes for combined poten-
tial impacts for each change in physical variable were formulated.
The relative consequence of the potential impacts was a subjec-
tive assessment based on expert opinion – generally impacts that
resulted in greater than a 5% change in a biological response were
considered as a high consequence, and greater than 2% as a medium
consequence. The ratings criteria used were arbitrary, but took into
account that relatively small changes in growth or survival rate
could potentially have a large effect on overall population produc-
tivity.
The “risk” of each potential impact was estimated as the product
of the likelihood of the climate related change in the environmen-
tal variable (Table 1) and the consequence of the potential impact
of the biological variable into high, medium and low for each com-
bination of physical and biological variables (Table 2). Once risk
values were assigned, two impact scenarios were outlined, one con-
taining the high risk impacts only (Scenario I) and the second the
high and medium risk impacts (Scenario II).
2.2. Step 2. Assessing climate-change impacts using a stock
assessment model
Monitoring of the Torres Strait rock lobster population was ini-
tiated in 1989 when a diver survey was conducted of 542 allocated
Table 2
Risk matrix for assigning risk categories to impacts based on likelihood and
consequence.
Risk Consequence
L M
L, <30% L L
Likelihood M, 30–70% L M
H, >70% M H
sites (Pitcher et al., 1992). Since 1994, around 100 sites have been
surveyed annually in Torres Strait. The surveys provide fishery-
independent information on lobster recruitment and abundance,
as well as on habitat composition. The information obtained from
the diving surveys and commercial catches by Australian (Islanders
and non-Islanders) and Papua New Guinean fishers are integrated
in a lobster population model. The purpose of the model is to assess
the resource status and productivity to inform management recom-
mendations.
In this analysis, the stock assessment model of Plagányi et al.
(2009) was modified to simulate likely future climate-change
impacts. The projected catches are computed using the same tar-
get fishing mortality rate (0.15 year−1 ) and harvest control rules
(a hockey-stick form with fishing mortality decreasing linearly in
proportion to biomass decreases below the target level, and zero at
the limit reference point) as in the current stock assessment. Two
climate-change scenarios and a no-climate-change scenario (base)
are considered and catches projected to 2030. The climate impacts
summarised under the two scenarios (high risk (I) and high and
medium risk (II)) were implemented in the population model by
scaling the natural mortality parameters as well as the estimated
recruitment levels upwards or downwards using the percentages as
given in Table 3. The von Bertalanffy growth co-efficient (but not
maximum size parameter Linf ) was assumed to increase linearly
over time to represent faster individual growth rates or maximum
size achieved (see Table 3) (Dennis et al., 1997; Skewes et al., 1997).
Gradual increases in growth over time were implemented as incre-
mental annual increases commencing from 2009. To account for
the increased fishing pressure that would result in younger-aged
lobsters (because a larger proportion of them would have grown
above the minimum legal size limit and hence be available to fish-
ers), the fishing selectivity parameter was increased appropriately
(one-third increase for first age class). The stock assessment model
assumes the management and structure of the rock lobster fishery,
together with other environmental impacts unrelated to climate
H change and economic complexities remain constant over time. In
M this way, this study highlights the effects from climate change to
H the fishery without other factors potentially overshadowing the
H results.
 A. Norman-López et al. / Fisheries Research 148 (2013) 18–26 21

Table 3
High and medium risk of climate impacts on different life stages of the rock lobster population in Torres Strait. Values obtained from literature and expert opinion.

Risk Life stage Lobster component Explanation

impacted

Larvae Growth Development and growth are temperature sensitive (Caputi et al., 2010; Wahle and Fogarty, 2006). Higher
High SST will speed growth up to physiological tolerances. Faster growth will mean faster development and
larvae ready to metamorphose into settling puerulus when they encounter the outer Great Barrier Reef.
This will likely increase larval supply back to Torres Strait, and the estimated net impact from a 1 ◦ C
average rise in SST is estimated to be of the order of about ∼5%
Juvenile Growth Warmer SST generally means faster growth up to a physiological tolerance (Wahle and Fogarty, 2006).
Regional lobster growth studies in Torres Strait have identified a growth vs temperature relationship, the
von Bertalanffy growth co-efficient, k, changing from 0.44 year−1 to 0.573 year−1 with a change in average
temperature from 25.7 ◦ C to 27.1 ◦ C (Skewes et al., 1997). Assuming k changes in proportion to average
temperature (and not Linf ), and that no physiological tolerance is reached under current projections to
2030 (Dennis et al., 1997), then with 1 ◦ C change projected by 2030, k(2030) = 1.095k(current) . Given published
growth rates for Torres Strait rock lobsters (Phillips et al., 1992) this change in growth means the
minimum legal size (MLS) (115 mm CL) is reached 1.75 months earlier, and 2+ lobsters in May are
approximately 7.5% larger by carapace length and 26% larger by weight in May (mid season)
Adult Growth Assuming a similar change in the growth co-efficient k, and that no physiological tolerance is reached,
then we would expect an increase in adult lobster size. However, adult lobsters (post maturation moult)
do not contribute a significant proportion of the Torres Strait fishery (Skewes et al., 1994; Ye et al., 2008),
as they do on the Queensland North East Coast (Pitcher et al., 2005)

Mortality Higher SST could increase mortality rates due to physiological thresholds, though interactions with other
Medium factors (i.e., higher phytoplankton) could ameliorate this factor to some extent. Estimate reduction of
larval survival by 2.5%
Juvenile Mortality Higher SST, physiological thresholds, disease and parasites may result in higher mortality, though
predation pressure will be reduced due to faster growth. Estimated an increase in mortality rate of 10%
Habitat: seagrass Seagrass habitats may be negatively impacted by increased SST (mostly shallow) and sea level rise (driven
by light and species niches) (Connolly, 2009). However, settling juvenile lobsters rely more on subtidal
seagrass for habitat. Estimated an overall negative impact on lobster recruitment of ∼5%
Adult Reproduction Faster growth and bigger lobsters will mean an increased fecundity due to strong size fecundity
relationship. Higher SST could also result in an earlier and longer reproductive season. Estimate increased
egg production of ∼10%

2.3. Step 3. Estimating socio-economic effects to the fishery,
region and national economy
Projected catches represent the total across the three fishery
sectors (TVH, TIB, PNG) and we assume that the relative allocations
between sectors remain constant in future, and focus on the Aus-
tralian sector only. For the latter, changes to rock lobster catches
are likely to have socio-economic implications to both Islander and
non-Islander fishers in Torres Strait. This in turn will have subse-
quent flow-on socio-economic effects to other intermediate and
final demand sectors in the region of Torres Strait and the rest of the
national economy. The projected catches to 2030 in step 2 following
two climate-change risk scenarios and a base scenario (no-climate-
change) were incorporated to an input–output (I–O) model of the
Australian economy to determine the direct income and employ-
ment effect to fishers and the flow on effects. The use of national
multipliers to estimate flow on effects for Torres Strait will result in
flow on effects being over-estimated. This is because regional mul-
tipliers are smaller than national multipliers for which they are a
part.
The I–O model is static and it is built on the notion that produc-
tion of output by industries (i.e., fish by fisheries) requires inputs
(i.e., fuel, boats, etc.) from other industries. In turn the manufac-
turers of these goods require goods from their suppliers and so
on, thereby creating a multiplier effect. The I–O model used in this
analysis has been adapted from Norman-López and Pascoe (2011).
Their model was derived from the latest Australian national I–O
table available (2004–2005), produced by the Australian Bureau
of Statistics. In their national I–O model the non-fishing sectors
are aggregated into a total of 9 sectors and the fishing sectors to a
total of 12. One of the fishing sectors represents the national pro-
duction of rock lobster. In this analysis, the Torres Strait Islander
and non-Islander rock lobster fisheries were disaggregated from
the national rock lobster sector. The disaggregation of the Islander
and non-Islander rock lobster fisheries was based on: the values
of production provided by ABARE (2008); cost structure informa-
tion obtained from cost and earnings (Fairhead and Hohnen, 2007);
and the distribution of production to other intermediate sectors
and final consumers (Arthur, 2005; Fairhead and Hohnen, 2007)
and expert opinions. For the scenario analysis, input costs and
prices were assumed to remain constant to 2030 allowing track-
ing of the effects that changes in catches will have in the whole
economy under no-climate-change (base scenario) and the two
climate-change scenarios. Prices and costs are predicted to vary
over time, but these changes and their implications for the demand
of rock lobster products are not understood, and we therefore prefer
not to speculate.
3. Results
3.1. Assessing risks of climate effects on the lobster population
Biological variables that were assessed as having a high or
medium risk of being impacted by climate change are summarised
in Table 3. Growth in all life history stages (larval, juvenile and
adults) was assessed as being at high risk due principally to a likely
increase in sea temperatures. This effect was assessed as being
mostly positive based on experimental studies demonstrating the
enhancement of growth by warmer sea surface temperatures up
to 30 ◦ C (Dennis et al., 1997; Skewes et al., 1997). Medium risks
contained both positive and negative effects. Positive effects were
associated with an increase in larval growth due to projected
increases in primary production in the Coral Sea (Brown et al.,
2010), and faster adult growth and bigger lobsters resulting in an
increase in adult reproduction. Negative effects were associated
with increased larval and juvenile mortality related to higher sea
surface temperatures and detrimental effects on the juvenile lob-
sters’ seagrass habitats.
Following the classification of those life history variables and
critical habitats that could experience high or medium risks to
22 A. Norman-López et al. / Fisheries Research 148 (2013) 18–26

1400

1200

1000

800

Tonnes
600

400

200

0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Base case catch Scenario I Scenario II

Fig. 1. Summary of modelled changes to projected P. ornatus catches (t) when using a deterministic scenario and assuming a constant future fishing mortality and when
comparing the base-case no-climate-change scenario with climate-change scenarios I and II as described in the text.

climate change, two impact risk scenarios were considered. In Sce- 3.3. Income and employment distribution effect of climate change
nario I, only high risk impacts are considered. Scenario II considers in the rock lobster fishery
high and medium risk impacts.
Scenario I: Lobster growth increased by 7.5% (carapace length, Climatic changes to rock lobster catches will have a direct
implemented as incremental annual increases commencing from effect on the employment and income (wages and profits) of
2009) and larval supply increased by 5%. Islander (TIB) and non-Islander fishers (TVH), and in turn have
Scenario II: Lobster growth increased by 7.5% (carapace length), a flow on effect to other sectors through changes in demand
larval supply increased by 7.5%, juvenile mortality rate increased from these two fishing groups. We divide the flow on effects
by 10%. to these “other sectors” into intermediate sectors (intermediate
effect) and final consumers (consumption effect). The estimated
income and employment flow on effects from Islander and non-
3.2. Stock assessment model projections Islander fishers will vary depending on how total catches are likely
to change under a no climate change (base scenario) and two cli-
The stock assessment model was used to estimate changes to mate change risk scenarios. The changes in catches were considered
projected P. ornatus spawning biomass (t) assuming a constant for the years 2004–2005 and 2029–2030. The year 2004–2005
future fishing mortality and when comparing the base-case sce- was chosen following the availability of data in the input–output
nario with climate-change risk scenarios I and II. Historical Torres model for this particular year. The income and employment (direct
Strait lobster catches show large inter-annual fluctuations due to effects) received for the different scenarios by Islander and non-
the fishery effectively catching one single cohort (2–3-year-old lob- Islander fishers were obtained directly from the I–O model. The
sters) and hence depending on the numbers of lobsters in the 3 age income and employment flow on effects to other intermedi-
groups. Given the extremely fast growth of the Torres Strait rock ate sectors (i.e., fuel, processors, retailers) and consumption (i.e.,
lobster, impacts on growth are rapidly translated into impacts on households, exports) were estimated by multiplying the direct
yield. The projected fluctuations in resource biomass are therefore income and employment values in Islanders’ and non-Islanders’
a consequence of the large fluctuations that are observed histor- fisheries by the appropriate income and employment multiplier
ically and are replicated by the model over the historic period (Table 4).
commencing in 1989. The changes in future biomass over and The direct and flow on income effects from changes to Islander
above the natural level of variability can be used to assess the net and non-Islander rock lobster catches under no-climate-change
changes to lobster catches (computed by applying a fixed target (base scenario) and two climate-change risk scenarios are pre-
mortality fishing rate). In this way, likely climate-induced changes sented in Fig. 2. Overall, expected higher catches (Scenario I)
in individual growth, mortality and reproduction rates are inte- generated higher income effects and vice versa (Scenario II). Direct
grated to the population and hence fishery level. Fig. 1 presents the income effects are higher in the non-Islander fishery than the
variation in catches under no-climate-change (base scenario) and Islander fishery when comparing across the three scenarios. This
under the two risk scenarios (I and II). The positive effects assumed is not surprising since the non-Islander fishing boats are more effi-
under Scenario I produce higher projected catches compared to cient (they are larger, apply more effort using less boats and catch
the no-climate-change scenario. However, the mixed positive and nearly as much as the Islanders). Therefore the wages received by
negative effects assumed under Scenario II result in lower pro- non-Islander fishers are higher than those obtained from Islander
jected catches compared to the no-climate-change scenario. The fishers. However, the flow on income effects received by other
deterministic projection shown is illustrative only, and the actual sectors (intermediate and consumption effects) from non-Islander
future fluctuations may be larger than shown due to environmental fisheries are lower compared to flow on effects received from
fluctuations or climate change effects that interact in a non-linear Islander fishers. This is because non-Islander vessels are mostly
fashion with existing environmental drivers of recruitment vari- operated by large companies that assign specific wages to fish-
ability. ers and keep profits separate. Non-Islanders’ income flow to other
 A. Norman-López et al. / Fisheries Research 148 (2013) 18–26 23

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

$AU Million
3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
wages profits intermediate consumption wages profits intermediate consumption
(direct effect) (direct effect) effect effect (direct) (direct) effect effect

Islanders Non islanders

base scenario 1 scenario 2

Fig. 2. Changes in income to the Islander fishing industry, the intermediate and final consumption sectors for the different scenarios.

Table 4 and the flow on income effects will change the demand for goods
Intermediate and final consumption (type 2) income and employment multipliers
and services from other sectors which in turn will have to adjust
in the base and scenario analysis.
production and employment levels in order to satisfy demand.
Rock lobster fishery in Base (no-climate- Scenario I Scenario II Finally, we summarise our results to identify whether the
Torres Strait change)
Islander and non-Islander income and employment flow on effects
Income multipliers remain in the Torres Strait region or go to the rest of the national
Islanders economy. The flow on effects will be important for the Torres
• Intermediate effect 0.655 0.550 0.799
Strait regional economy given the rock lobster fishery is an impor-
• Final consumption 1.071 1.003 1.165
effect tant source of income and employment to the region, and there
Non-Islanders are few other opportunities. On the other hand, the employment
• Intermediate effect 0.555 0.466 0.677 and income effects from the Torres Strait lobster fishery outside
• Final consumption 1.006 0.949 1.086
Torres Strait are likely to be negligible compared to the income
effect
Employment multipliers and employment opportunities from other industries. Fig. 4 sum-
Islanders marises the net income and employment effects in the Torres Strait
• Intermediate effect 0.023 0.023 0.023 region and elsewhere in the Australian economy for the base case
• Final consumption 0.038 0.042 0.034 and two risk scenarios. Non-Islanders’ full income and employ-
effect
ment effects (direct, intermediate and consumption effects) were
Non-Islanders
• Intermediate effect 0.343 0.343 0.343 assumed to be spent outside of Torres Strait. We based this assump-
• Final consumption 0.602 0.676 0.532 tion on the fact that non-Islander vessels are operated by large
effect companies located outside Torres Strait and the majority of the
crew also live and spend their income outside Torres Strait. As some
crew are Islanders living in Torres Strait and they spend their wages
industries will only depend on the expenditure from the wages
locally our assumption of full income and employment effects from
they receive. On the other hand, the Islander skippers do not allo-
the non-Islander group leaving Torres Strait is a slight overestima-
cate a specific wage to themselves or family members, instead
tion. With respect to Islander fishers, we considered the direct and
they live from the profits obtained from their fishing operations
consumption flow on effects obtained from Islanders’ fisheries are
(Fairhead and Hohnen, 2007). Therefore, Islander fishers have a
likely to remain in the Torres Strait because Islanders living in Tor-
higher flow on income effect on other sectors than non-Islander
res Strait do not tend to travel outside the region. In contrast, the
fishers.
intermediate flow on effects from Islander fisheries are likely to
The direct and flow-on employment effects from changes to
move outside Torres Strait. This is because many goods and ser-
Islander and non-Islander rock lobster catches under no-climate-
vices are produced elsewhere in Australia and imported into Torres
change (base scenario) and two climate-change risk scenarios are
Strait. Overall, the underlying assumptions have opposing impacts
presented in Fig. 3. Overall, expected higher catches (Scenario I)
on the estimated flow on effects for Torres Strait. Using national
generated higher employment effects and vice versa (Scenario II).
level multipliers for the Islander effect overstates this impact how-
The direct employment effects (fishers employed in the Islander
ever in assuming that all the non-Islander effects are external to
and non-Islander fisheries) and flow on employment effects (peo-
the region the true flow on effect this group has in the region is
ple employed in other sectors) stay constant for all scenarios under
consequently understated.
the assumption that the capacity in the fishery remains the same
Based on these assumptions, the full income and employment
to 2030.1 The flow on employment effects for the final consump-
effects received by the Torres Strait regional economy are slightly
tion sectors vary for the different climate-change scenarios. This is
less than the full income and employment effects leaving the
because the change in Islanders’ and non Islanders’ fisheries income
region. Nevertheless, the estimated full income and employment
effects in Torres Strait are large relative to the size of the regional
1
economy and hence the extra benefits or losses under climate
If the capacity remains the same, the amount of inputs from other industries
change could be considered substantial
and the flow on effects would remain the same.
24 A. Norman-López et al. / Fisheries Research 148 (2013) 18–26

600

500

Employment (persons)
400

300

200

100

0
Direct effect Intermediate Consumption Direct effect Intermediate Consumption
effect effect effect effect

Islanders Non islanders

base scen 1 scen 2

Fig. 3. Changes in employment for the Islander fishing industry, the intermediate and final consumption sectors for the different scenarios.

4. Discussion took a risk assessment approach to rank potential impacts based on

The need to improve and maintain the management and use of
marine resources to ensure their continued sustainability is cur-
rently complicated by concerns as to how to additionally account
for climate-change impacts. Central to this is a need to understand
the underlying effects of changes in physical variables on system
productivity and functioning, to enable strategic planning as to
management responses to changing climate. We present results
from a pragmatic approach that can be used to explore likely
climate-change impacts on a fishery, when using only slight modi-
fications to existing methodology rather than undertaking detailed
mechanistic modelling coupled to downscaled physical climate-
change models.
Rather than selecting climate impacts in isolation, this study
attempted to use a comprehensive multiple impact assessment
approach that considered the effect of a full suite of climate-change
components against a suite of life history components and criti-
cal habitats, taking into account the interactions between posited
impacts where possible. As there is uncertainty around changes in
physical parameters and the potential impacts of those changes, we
the likelihood of the change and its consequence. This qualitative
risk assessment was then used to inform and prioritise scenarios for
testing using the stock assessment model. This approach will likely
be iteratively updated in the future as more information comes to
hand.
A range of modelling approaches have been described for
incorporating climate and environmental variability (Keyl and
Wolff, 2008). In our study, several scenarios proved readily imple-
mentable in a standard stock assessment population dynamics
model (for example, increases in the natural mortality rate and lar-
val supply). Some others required only minor changes to the model
– for example, the von Bertalanffy rate parameter was assumed to
increase linearly over time as a proxy for modelling increases in
somatic growth rate of individual lobsters. This approach allowed
integration of climate-change effects at the individual level to the
overall population level, as well as simultaneous testing of a mul-
titude of impacts – thereby permitting integration of the net effect
of impacts operating in opposite directions and at different scales.
Climate change is often presented as resulting in predominantly
negative effects. Our analysis suggests climate change could either

12 700

600
10
Employment (persons)

500
8
Income (AU$m)

400
6
300

4
200

2
100

0 0
Base Scen 1 Scen 2 Base Scen 1 Scen 2

Torres Strait Non-Torres Strait

Income Employment

Fig. 4. Net income (broad bars) and employment (narrow bars) effects to Torres Strait and the rest of the Australian national economy for the different scenarios.
 A. Norman-López et al. / Fisheries Research 148 (2013) 18–26
bring higher catches (Scenario I) or lower (Scenario II) by 2030.
From these scenarios the net income change from the Islander
and non-Islander lobster industries together could approximately
increase (Scenario I) or decline (Scenario II) by $4 million when
compared to the no climate change scenario (base scenario). Nev-
ertheless, this study has ignored the likely effects from climate
change on fishing infrastructure and gear and demand for Torres
Strait rock lobster. We expect an increased frequency and intensity
of cyclones, sea level rise and other extreme events may increase
the risk of displacement of Islander communities, damage to fish-
ing infrastructure and gear and reduce the time spent out at sea
(Dasgupta et al., 2009; Hobday et al., 2008). Also, Torres Strait
rock lobster is likely to compete with similar products in markets.
Simulations on the effects from climate change on changes in sup-
ply to world seafood markets are hence necessary to understand
possible price changes of Torres Strait rock lobster and their impli-
cations to fishers and consumers. Studies have already examined
the implications of climate change on global markets for agricul-
ture, timber and fish meal (Julia and Duchin, 2007; Mendelsohn and
Dinar, 2009; Merino et al., 2010; Reilly et al., 1994; Sohngen et al.,
2001). Unfortunately, for Australian fisheries, the substitutability
between Australian seafood products and between Australian and
international seafood products, must be understood before possi-
ble price changes can be simulated. Given the lack of information
on the impacts that cyclones are likely to have on fishing infrastruc-
ture and possible market changes, we have preferred not to make
assumptions on changes in demand and costs.
Non climate change effects that will in reality add extra pres-
sures in the fishery have also been ignored. As an example, by 2030,
the management arrangements and reallocation of quota between
TIB and TVH will be different, there could be new non climate
change related environmental and anthropogenic effects impacting
the lobster industry and complex interactions in the global econ-
omy will most likely alter exchange rates, market regulations and
overall the interactions between products in markets. Neverthe-
less, we are unaware what the changes are likely to be and the
extent of the impact in the Torres Strait fishery. We have there-
fore chosen to focus on the effects from climate change on the
industry’s productivity rather than assume impacts that might or
might not happen and could potentially overshadow the climate
change effects for which we have a comprehensive multiple impact
assessment approach.
Climate change, as manifested through changes to oceanic con-
ditions over seasons, annual cycles and decades, has the ability to
change the distribution and productivity of a range of populations
presently utilised for capture fisheries. Our study aims to pro-
vide insights into the possible implications to yields, and flow-on
impacts to communities dependent upon specific capture fisheries.
However equally important is how managers and participants in
fisheries go about managing the associated changes to allocations
and wealth that accompany changes in the distribution and produc-
tivity of target stocks. Whilst it is beyond the scope of this study to
investigate how the specific impacts of climate change will need
to be managed in this case, it is worthwhile briefly considering the
scale and scope of this issue.
In the study presented here, the region under consideration
comprises a mix of non indigenous (non-Islander) commercial
and local scale indigenous (Islander) fishers that operate under
complicated multi-jurisdictional governance arrangements. The
non-Islander commercial fishers (TVH) are based mostly outside
Torres Strait and travel large distances whilst Islander commercial
fishers (TIB) operate locally. In one sense, the mixed property right
arrangements between Islander and non-Islander fishers can actu-
ally be reasonably resilient to gross changes in the distribution and
productivity of target species. This is because the mixture of remote
commercial and local commercial fishers can be flexible enough
25
to adjust fishing effort and location. However, in adapting to these
changes there are likely to be winners and losers in terms of the gen-
eration and distribution of wealth. For example, if the distribution
of particular species such as rock lobsters relocate from the inshore
fishing grounds of local-range fishers to distant or even deeper
waters, it may be relatively straightforward for longer-ranging non-
Islander commercial fishers to maintain the same overall level of
harvesting to compensate for effort unable to be maintained by
Islander fishers operating locally. In other words, the total yield
from the fishery may be maintained but the distribution of wealth
generated by the fishery may change substantially.
Understanding the adaptive capacity of different sectors will
facilitate strategic management planning. In our study, for exam-
ple, the Islander fleets that were harvesting the species may be
unable to adapt to the changing stock distribution. This may be an
overall cost or benefit depending on what, if any, marine popula-
tion inhabits the niche created by the departing species, or how
alternative employment arrangements are put in place by govern-
ments. In other words, a complete picture of the changes can only be
obtained given information on not only how the distribution and
productivity of presently harvested species may change, but also
how the distribution and abundance of associated and dependent
species, and species that play similar ecological roles, may adapt to
climate change.
Acknowledgements
This research was funded by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation and
Wealth from Oceans Flagships, Australia. Malcolm Haddon, Sean
Pascoe, Ingrid Van Putten and Alistair Hobday provided many help-
ful comments.
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