UNDERSTANDING RESEARCH

RESULTS: STATISTICAL INFERENCE

A FEW TERMS
A FEW TERMS
SAMPLES AND POPULATIONS
9 Inferential statistics are necessary because
9The results of a given study are based on data obtained from a
single sample of researcher participants and
9Data are not based on an entire population of scores

9 Allows conclusions on the basis of sample data

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
9 Allow researchers to make inferences about the true differences
in populations of scores based on a sample of data from that
population
9 Allows that the difference between sample means reflects
random error rather than a real difference
NULL AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
9 Null Hypothesis
9H0: Population Means are Equal
9Any differences between groups are due to chance alone

9 Research Hypothesis
9H1: Population Means are Not Equal
9Any differences between groups are due to the IV

9 Statistical Significance: Unlikely to be due to chance alone

PROBABILITY AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
9 Probability: The Case of ESP
9Are correct answers due to chance or due to something more?
9 Sampling Distributions
9Assumes Null is True
9Binomial Distributions
9 Sample Size
THE T TEST
9 t value is a ratio of two aspects of the data
9The difference between the group means and
The variability within groups
9The
between-groups difference
t=
within-groups difference
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF
T VALUES
EXAMPLE: THE T AND F TESTS
9 Degrees of Freedom
9The number of scores that are free to vary when
making an estimate.
9 One-Tailed vs. Two-Tailed Tests
9Directional vs.
vs Nondirectional Hypotheses?
9 The F Test (analysis of variance)
Systematic variance / Between
9Systematic Between-Groups
Groups Variance
9Error variance / Within-Groups Variance
ONE-TAILED VS. TWO-TAILED TESTS
What is a directional hypothesis?

Is a one-tailed test valid?

EXAMPLE: THE T AND F TESTS
9 Calculating Effect Size (r, Cohen’s d, η p , etc.)
2

9 Confidence Intervals and Statistical Significance

9 Statistical Significance
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
9 Type I Errors
9Made when the null hypothesis is rejected but the null
hypothesis
yp is actuallyy true
9Obtained when a large value of t or F is obtained by chance
alone
9 Type
yp II Errors
9Made when the null hypothesis is accepted although in the
population the research hypothesis is true
9Factors related to making a Type II error
9Significance (alpha) level
9Sample size
9Effect size
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
THE EVERYDAY CONTEXT OF TYPE I AND TYPE II
ERRORS
SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL & STATISTICAL ERRORS
9 Researchers traditionally have used either a .05 or a .01
significance level in the decision to reject the null hypothesis
9 A
Agreementt that
th t the
th consequences off making
ki a Type
T I error are
more serious than those associated with a Type II error
9Arlo’s Two Cents: It depends on context.
9
9e.g., A new drug
d which
hi h may cure AIDS

9 Interpreting
p g nonsignificant
g results
9Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
9Nothing is ever proven or disproven!
CHOOSING A SAMPLE SIZE: POWER ANALYSIS
Power is a statistical test that determines optimal
sample size based on probability of correctly rejecting
the null hypothesis
yp
Power = 1 – p(Type II error)

Eff
Effect sizes
i range and
dddesired
i d power
ƒ Smaller effect sizes require larger samples to be significant
ƒ Higher desired power demands a greater sample size
ƒ Researchers usually use a power between .70 70 and .90
90
IMPORTANCE OF REPLICATIONS
Scientists attach little importance to results of a single study
Detailed understanding requires numerous studies examining same
variables
i bl
Researchers look at the results of studies that replicate previous
investigations
SIGNIFICANE OF PEARSON’S R CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
Is the correlation statistically significant?
ƒ Ho: r = 0
ƒ H1: r ≠ 0

It is proper to conduct a t-test to compare the r-value with the null

correlation of 0.00 ?
COMPUTER ANALYSIS OF DATA
9 Software Programs include
9SPSS
9SAS
9Minitab
9Microsoft Excel
9 Steps in analysis
9Input data
9Rows represent cases or each participant’s scores
9Columns represent
p apparticipant’s
p score for a specific
p variable
9Conduct analysis
9Interpret output
SELECTING THE APPROPRIATE SIGNIFICANCE TEST
IV DV Statistical Test
Nominal Nominal Chi Square
Male-Female Vegetarian – Yes /
No
Nominal (2 Groups) Interval / Ratio t test
Male-Female Grade Point Average
Nominal (3 groups) Interval / Ratio One-way ANOVA
Study time (Low, Test Score
Medium, High)
Interval / Ratio Interval / Ratio Pearson’s
Optimism Score Sick Days Last Year correlation
SELECTING THE APPROPRIATE SIGNIFICANCE TEST
9 Multiple Independent Variables
9Nominal Scale Data – ANOVA Factorial Design
9Ordinal Scale Data – no appropriate test is available
9Interval or Ratio Scale Data – Multiple Regression