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Argus 20230518fmbamm
Argus 20230518fmbamm
200
India awards 5,000t tender 27 Oct 15 Dec 9 Feb 30 Mar 18 May
India's Fact has awarded its 15 May tender to trading
company Trammo at $310/t cfr. The tender requested 7,500t Data & Download index
of ammonia for 10-20 June delivery at Cochin.
European import line up
Taiwan Indian import line up
Formosa Plastics Group has issued a tender for 8,000-10,000t
Moroccan import line up
of ammonia for 2H June arrival at Mai Liao. Offers to be
submitted by 21 May. Trinidad exports
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Licensed to: Siraj Rahimtula 2, TRANSCOM DMCC
Argus Ammonia Issue 23-20 | Thursday 18 May 2023
NW Europe fob
Ongoing downward pressure on natural gas prices in west Baltic na na-na nc
Europe is reducing potential ammonia production costs Pivdenny na-na na-na nc
at European plants, and pushing down bid prices from
North Africa 280-320 290-368 -29.0
importers. NW Europe prices have fallen to $370-390/t cfr
Middle East 230-260 250-295 -27.5
duty-free, and buyers are pushing for $360/t cfr and below
Middle East spot 235-260 250-270 -12.5
for the next round of buying.
Middle East contract 230-260 250-295 -27.5
US Gulf domestic (barge) $/st 330-340 335-345 -5.0
Turkey
Caribbean (Tampa netback) 330-335 330-335 nc
Eti Bakir is looking for 5,000t for June delivery and has yet
Caribbean/US Gulf spot 310-330 330-350 -20.0
to cover the requirement, trading firms say. Bagfas was
SE Asia and Australia spot 250-270 250-270 nc
also reported to be in the market for a June cargo. Traders
say Turkish buyers had been targeting $300/t cfr for June SE Asia and Australia contract 280-280 280-300 -10.0
deliveries but are now looking to buy at around $270/t cfr. cfr
Trammo’s Oceanic Moon ex-Egypt is scheduled to discharge NW Europe (duty unpaid) 350-370 370-405 -27.5
Bulgaria
Production cost based on Henry Hub, $/st (LHS)
Trafigura will deliver the cargo loading this week from Qatar Production cost based on TTF, $/t (RHS)
on its new-build Cerro Alto Explorer to Varna in early-June. 400 3,500
Agropolychim is receiving an ammonia shipment from 350 3,000
Trammo this week at Varna on Trammo Paris. 2,500
300
2,000
Italy 250
1,500
Yara resumed ammonia production on 11 May and urea 200
1,000
production shortly after at its facility at Ferrara. The
150 500
plant had been shut down on 20 April because of technical
problems, Argus understands. The facility had restarted 100 0
5 May 22 8 Sep 22 12 Jan 23 11 May 23
only three weeks earlier, targeting 50,000t of ammonia
.
prices are in a slightly wider range of $230-260/t fob, with Ras Al-Khair to Kakinada 25300t 37.94 u
Ras Al-Khair to Ulsan 25300t 70.01 u
the low end reflecting netbacks on sales to East Asia.
Ras Al-Khair to Taichung 25300t 61.66 u
Ras Al-Khair to Antwerp 25300t 93.43 u
Saudi Arabia Ras Al-Khair to Jorf Lasfar 25300t 79.37 u
Ma’aden has sold 40,000t of TUV Rheinland accredited blue Point Lisas to Ulsan 25300t 116.02 t
ammonia to Trammo. The cargo will be sold into the Europe Point Lisas to Houston 25300t 30.24 t
market, and the first lot of around 25,000t is scheduled to Point Lisas to Antwerp 25300t 50.10 t
load from Ras al Khair in June, with the balance loading Point Lisas to Jorf Lasfar 25300t 39.87 t
before October this year. In total, Ma’aden received Point Lisas to Richards Bay 25300t 69.94 t
blue accreditation for 140,000t of its annual ammonia Bontang to Ulsan 25300t 31.25 u
Disclaimer: Argus depicts geo-political borders as defined by the United Nations Geospatial Information Section.
For more information visit http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf
May 190,072
CIFC CIL Gas Quantum 3,192 Bontang 4-May Vizag 345
Raintrade PPL ST Oslo 3,000 AG 4-May Goa 261
Raintrade Smartchem Waasmunster 6,000 AG 4-May JNPT
Ma'aden IFFCO Wepion 25,193 Ras al khair 5-May Paradip
Raintrade Smartchem St Raman 17,500 AG 6-May JNPT
Ma'aden CIL Seamaid 15,000 Ras al khair 7-May Kakinada 294
CIFC CIL Gas Quantum 4,000 Bontang 8-May Ennore
Sabic IFFCO AL Jabirah 20,000 Ras al khair 8-May Kandla
Raintrade MCFL Waasmunster 5,000 AG 8-May Mangalore
CIFC Indo Rama Marianna 28 5,646 Bontang 12-May Haldia
Raintrade PPL Waasmunster 9,891 AG 13-May Paradip
Raintrade Smartchem St Raman 18,500 AG 16-May JNPT
Ma'aden CIL Seamaid 7,000 Ras al khair 18-May Vizag 294
Ma'aden GSFC Seagemini 14,000 Ras al khair 15-May Sikka
Trammo IFFCO AL Jabirah 23,150 Qalhat/Sitrah 16-May Kandla
Raintrade PPL ST Oslo 4,000 AG 21-May Goa
CIFC CIL Navigator Glory 9,000 Kertih 28-May Vizag
June
Raintrade IFFCO ST Judi 22,000 AG early June Kandla
trader has been looking to sell a spot cargo into NW Europe, Americas
but contract fob prices of around $280/t fob Bontang can
not compete in west Europe where prices have fallen to US
$370-390/t cfr. US Midwest and Corn Belt ammonia pricing sank further
Mitsui's Gaz Millennium is at Bontang now, loading for this week, with suppliers accepting lower bids to reduce
China (8,000t) and Japan (7,000t). The trader has also just inventories as side-dress applications lift demand and
loaded the Gaz Venezia from Kaltim for delivery to Vietnam. provide a final breath of demand before the summer
Yara will load its vessel Leo Sunrise from Luwuk in late- offseason. Sources expect suppliers to maintain aggressive
May as part of a swap arrangement with Mitsubishi. pricing ahead of the offseason lull, hoping to lessen the
PAU’s 750,000t/yr production plant in Luwuk is running at impact of a potential price reset for summer fill, which,
stable rates this week, and market participants report that according to multiple sources, is likely to occur once
no changes in operating rates are likely to be expected. applications conclude.
In the US Gulf, Nola barges fell by $5/st from the previ-
Vietnam ous week on a midpoint basis to $330-340/st fob, as reduced
Suppliers continue to source ammonia from Indonesia and offers from suppliers failed to spur interest in the market
Malaysia to cover contract and spot requirements in the and no trades were confirmed this week. Demand is likely
north and south of Vietnam, now that Chinese ammonia is to remain low in the near-term, with barge purchases in the
no longer on offer. Mitsui will deliver a small ammonia cargo coming weeks expected to account for fill tonnage and will
to Dong Nai on the Gaz Venezia next week. The vessel has likely be discounted to attract buyers with available inven-
just loaded from Indonesia. SK Chemical is delivering a spot tory, contingent upon the announcement of fill offers.
cargo to Hai Phong later this month on Camila B. The cargo Another decline to the Tampa ammonia settlement re-
will load from Malaysia and has been priced on formula. mains consensus among industry participants, with softness
Linker’s Tanja Kosan has been waiting at Hai Phong to still lingering the in global market while the US’ fertilizer
discharge, but the vessel is reported to be facing berthing offseason will slash demand in the late second and early
issues. third quarter.
Fertiglobe will load Nashwan from Beaumont in late-May,
Australia but the destination of the cargo has not been confirmed.
Petronas’ Navigator Glory is on the way to Kwinana, to
discharge 10,000t of ammonia for a previously concluded Trinidad and Tobago
deal two weeks ago. Production rates are improving in Trinidad compared with
Mitsubishi’s Pazifik is heading to Dampier this week and a few weeks ago, traders said, but remain restricted by gas
will load a cargo under a swap arrangement with Yara. The supply.
cargoes had been previously concluded under formula pric- Around 237,500t is on the May line up, around 100,000t
ing. below the average rate of exports so far in 2023.
Trinidad exported 930,000t in the first quarter of 2023,
Malaysia down 2pc – or 19,000t – on the same period of 2022.
Linker’s Vast Ocean is at Bintulu this week. The vessel is
currently on charter and is expected to conduct another two Subscribers can download the latest green ammonia
trips from Kerteh to Haiphong in June. project and vessel tracking data here.
Henan Energy’s Gas Grouper is currently at Kerteh and
will be heading to Thailand to discharge 13,000t priced on a
formula basis. Petronas was the supplier of the cargo.
Trinidad’s March NH3 output slips Prices trend lower east and west
Trinidad and Tobago’s ammonia and methanol production Market activity was more muted ahead of a major industry
both declined in March from a year earlier, reflecting conference next week and public holidays in Europe, but
reduced allocation of natural gas, according to data from the sentiment remains bearish.
energy ministry. India dominated market attention with the cabinet's
Continue reading >> approval of the subsidy and 35pc cut in the DAP NBS. But im-
porters and manufacturers are still set to enjoy solid margins
Exmar profits jump in 1Q at current rates. DAP fell to $511-513/t cfr India basis latest
Belgium-based LPG shipowner Exmar's shipping arm business, down from $523-525/t cfr.
increased its profits in the first quarter of the year, buoyed A major southern Chinese producer sold 70,000t of DAP
by an increase in freight rates. to India, netting below $500/t fob, with other sales in the
Continue reading >> $500-505/t fob range emerging earlier in the week. The DAP
assessment slid to $495-500/t fob China, basis the sale and
India to cut subsidies for complex fertilizers latest indications, down from $505-510/t last week.
India's government will significantly cut its nutrient-based European import demand has largely disappeared. North
subsidy (NBS) rates for complex fertilizers for the April- African fob levels were stable on last week.
September kharif season. West of Suez, MAP cfr Brazil was under sustained pressure
Continue reading >> through the week, dropping to $500-520/t cfr. Incofe closed
a tender on 17 May, with DAP offered lowest at around
Nutrien reports strong 2Q fertilizer demand $529/t cfr. In the US, prices slipped lower - DAP barges fell
North American fertilizer producer Nutrien said potash to $480-510/st fob Nola, with MAP trading in the low $480s/
demand has strengthened this quarter and it anticipates st fob for May shipment.
another surge in demand in the back half of 2023 because of
lower expected inventories and improved grower affordability. Slowing demand weakens urea
Continue reading >> Urea prices generally weakened further this week but only
by small amounts as short-term supply remained tight and
Lower energy prices lift EU GDP outlook buyers declined to commit to much forward business.
The European Commission today raised its forecast for EU Trade this week was concentrated in Americas markets
gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 1pc in 2023, from and Turkey.
0.8pc previously, citing lower energy prices, fewer supply US prices rose overall, propped up by prompt demand,
constraints and persistently strong labour markets. but the key price for June barges fell by $15/st to $285/st
Continue reading >> fob Nola — showing that US importers desire no more supply
from offshore.
US corn, soy quicken pace, winter wheat im- Buyers in Mexico and central America sought cargoes for
proves their west coasts, with Russian supply again most competi-
Corn and soybean planting progress continued above its five- tive despite still-high freight rates.
year average pace in the US while winter wheat conditions Brazil prices slipped lower in sporadic trade, from $320/t
slightly improved, though the largest winter wheat state, cfr to $314/t cfr for all origins.
Kansas, further deteriorated, according to the US Department Turkish importers booked cargoes of prilled and granular
of Agriculture (USDA) report for the week ending 14 May. urea at $350/t cfr and $365/t cfr, respectively, for shipment
Continue reading >> from Egypt by mid-June.
Ammonia-fuelled ships for Australia exports by 2028: GMF Middle East LCO delivered NW Europe 1,208.463 1,208.583 34
Book by
Egypt signs deal for 40,000 t/yr e-methanol plant April 21 to save
Egypt’s state-owned Alexandria National Refining and $300 with
Petrochemicals (ANRPC) and the Egyptian Company for the early bird
discount
Bioethanol have signed a deal to build a $450mn e-methanol
production plant with Norwegian renewables developer
Scatec, according to the Egyptian ministry of petroleum and www.argusmedia.com/clean-ammonia-north-america
mineral resources.
Continue reading >> Fertilizers
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