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Mundell Fleming
Mundell Fleming
IS/LM Framework:
When prices are fixed then, as we know from IS-LM model, the aggregate supply curve is
horizontal. The implication of ASC becoming horizontal is that now output is demand determined
and supply side is redundant. This case is exactly opposite to Say’s law that supply side is
determines the output and demand side is not important.
Demand in an economy is constrained by physical supply of goods and items. If the demand goes
up then the prices go up too because the supply cannot be increased. But here the prices are rigid
and producers are ready to supply at rigid prices so supply is not a constraint anymore. Output is
completely demand determined. The prices are rigid and the supply side is redundant then we are
only left with demand side to study. The determination of demand comes from the following four
markets: the goods market, the money market, the bond market and the For-ex market. Money
market and bonds market are interlinked in a manner that both money and bonds are similar assets.
If money and bonds are the only two assets present in the economy, then according to Walrus law
if money market is in equilibrium then bonds market should be in equilibrium. That is why we
don’t need to study bond market if we are studying money market equilibrium. Let us consider an
open economy IS-LM model.
Goods Market:
𝑌 =𝐶+𝐼+𝐺
𝐶 = 𝐶(𝑌 𝑑 , 𝐴⁄𝑃 ) 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒 𝐴⁄𝑃 = 𝑀⁄𝑃 𝑎𝑠 𝑤𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑦 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡
𝜕𝐶 𝜕𝐶
0< = 𝐶 𝑌 𝑑 < 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 = 𝐶𝑀⁄𝑃 > 0
𝜕𝑌 𝑑 𝜕 𝑀 ⁄𝑃
𝑌𝑑 = 𝑌 − 𝑇
𝐼 = 𝐼(𝑟)
𝑟 = 𝑖 − 𝜋 𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑧𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑠𝑜 𝑟 = 𝑖
𝜕𝐼
= 𝐼𝑟 < 0
𝜕𝑟
𝐺 = 𝐺̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 = 𝑇̅
𝑁𝑋 = 𝑋 − 𝑀
𝑋 = 𝑋(𝑌 𝐹 , 𝐸)
𝜕𝑋 𝜕𝑋
= 𝑋𝑌 𝐹 > 0, = 𝑋𝐸 > 0
𝜕𝑌𝐹 𝜕𝐸
𝑀′ = 𝑀′ (𝑌, 𝐸)
𝜕𝑀′ 𝜕𝑀′
= 𝑀′ 𝑌 > 0, = 𝑀′ 𝐸 < 0
𝜕𝑌 𝜕𝐸
Goods Market Equilibrium Condition:
(1 − 𝐶𝑌 𝑑 − 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 )𝑑𝑌
1 𝑀
= −𝐶𝑌 𝑑 𝑑𝑇 + 𝐶𝑀⁄𝑃 𝑑𝑀 − 2 𝐶𝑀⁄𝑃 𝑑𝑃 + 𝐼𝑟 𝑑𝑖 + 𝑑𝐺 + 𝑋𝑌 𝐹 𝑑𝑌 𝐹 + 𝛽𝑑𝐸 − 𝐴′ −
𝑃 𝑃
For the purpose of calculating the slope of the IS curve all the variables except i and Y are zero
which yields us the following equation and consequently the slope of IS curve:
(1 − 𝐶𝑌 𝑑 − 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 )𝑑𝑌 = 𝐼𝑟 𝑑𝑖
𝑑𝑖 (1 − 𝐶𝑌 𝑑 − 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 ) 𝐴
= = <0
𝑑𝑌 𝐼𝑟 𝐼𝑟
𝑎𝑠 𝐴 = 1 − 𝐶𝑌 𝑑 − 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 > 0
Money Market:
𝑀𝑑 𝑀 𝑠
=
𝑃 𝑃
𝑀𝑑 = 𝐿(𝑌, 𝑖)
𝑀𝑠 𝑀̅
𝐿𝑌 > 0, 𝐿𝑖 < 0 𝑎𝑛𝑑 =
𝑃 𝑃
Money Market Equilibrium Condition:
𝑀
= 𝐿(𝑌, 𝑖) −𝐵−
𝑃
Taking total differential of B
1 𝑀
𝑑𝑀 − 2 𝑑𝑃 = 𝐿𝑌 𝑑𝑌 + 𝐿𝑖 𝑑𝑖 − 𝐵′ −
𝑃 𝑃
For the purpose of ascertaining the slope of LM curve all variables except i and Y are zero which
yields the following equation and consequently the slope of LM curve:
𝐿𝑌 𝑑𝑌 = −𝐿𝑖 𝑑𝑖
𝑑𝑖 𝐿𝑌
=− >0
𝑑𝑌 𝐿𝑖
Normally at this point in our derivation of model we can easily calculate the multiplier and check
the effect of variables on our goods market and money market equilibrium but before we move
forward to multipliers there two important issues to attend to.
Issues:
i. There are two issues in the conventional open economy IS-LM equilibrium analysis
i.e. there is no treatment for trade surplus or trade deficit. If we assume that trade
surplus and trade deficits are equal then equilibrium value of output can be found but
if they are not then IS-LM model doesn’t provide a treatment for this discrepancy in
the external account.
ii. G, T, M are policy variables and are all exogenous among other exogenous variables.
Again we can assume a situation where government expenditures are equal to
government revenue. But if G is not equal to T then there is a discrepancy in the form
of either budget deficit or budget surplus. If we try to cover this discrepancy through
money market M will become endogenous as it’s determined through difference of two
variables of the model. So for any two variables to be balance and kept exogenous one
has to be endogenous.
To get rid of these complications we have to take few assumptions:
(a) The external account is in equilibrium:
𝑋 − 𝐸𝑀 = 0
Then the transformed IS equation will be
The other extreme case will be in Monetarist model where interest sensitivity of money demand
will come down to zero. The government expenditure effect on output will be zero but monetary
policy will be effective.
𝑑𝑌 1
lim = = 𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒
𝐿𝑖 →0 𝑑𝐺 1 − 𝐶𝑌 𝑑 + ∞
1
𝑑𝑌 𝐶𝑀⁄𝑃
lim = 𝑃 >0
𝐿𝑖 →0 𝑑𝑀 1 − 𝐶𝑌 𝑑
We have proven that in IS-LM model if the prices are rigid then demand side policies are effective
and supply side is redundant. When aggregate demand in the economy rises it creates boom and
when aggregate demand is low it creates recession. So through rigidity in prices we have explained
the existence of business cycles. Another source of nominal rigidity is rigidity in nominal wages.
We will now study the case of nominal wage rigidity and flexible prices. If the prices are flexible
then IS-LM model fails because the baseline assumption is fixed prices.
𝐾 = 𝐾(𝑖 − 𝑖𝑓)
𝜕𝐾
= 𝐾𝑖−𝑖𝑓 > 0
𝜕(𝑖 − 𝑖𝑓)
For the purpose of finding the slope all variables except I and Y are zero which will yield the
following equation and consequently the slope of BOP curve:
0 = −𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 𝑑𝑌 + 𝐾𝑖−𝑖𝑓 𝑑𝑖
𝑑𝑖 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌
= >0
𝑑𝑌 𝐾𝑖−𝑖𝑓
Now our system of equation is A’, B’ and C’. Before converting the equations into matrix form the
important thing to note here is that now we can do policy analysis for both long run and short run
for fixed and flexible exchange rate systems. So we will pick them one by one and see the effects
of policy in each separate case:
(i) Short-run Effects under Fixed ER system:
In this case our endogenous variables will be dY, di and dṘ and dE = 0.
𝑑𝑇
−𝐶𝑌 𝑑 1 𝑋𝑌 𝐹 0 0 0 0 𝑑𝐺
𝐴 −𝐼𝑟 0 𝑑𝑌 𝑑𝑌 𝐹
1 1 𝑀
[ 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑌 0] [ 𝑑𝑖 ] = [ 0 0 0 − 2 0 ] 𝑑𝐷
𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 1 𝑑𝑅̇ 𝑃 𝑃 𝑃 𝑑𝑅
0 0 𝑋𝑌 𝐹 0 0 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′
𝑑𝑃
[ 𝑑𝑖𝑓 ]
𝐴 −𝐼𝑟 0
∆′ = | 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑌 0| = 𝐴(𝐿𝑖 ) + 𝐼𝑟 (𝐿𝑌 ) > 0
𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 1
1 −𝐼𝑟 0
|0 𝐿𝑌 0|
𝑑𝑌 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 1 𝐿𝑖
= = >0
𝑑𝐺 ∆′ ∆′
0 −𝐼𝑟 0
1
| 𝐿𝑌 0|
𝑃
𝑑𝑌 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 1 𝐼𝑟
= = >0
𝑑𝐷 ∆′ 𝑃∆′
(ii) Long-run Effects under Fixed ER system:
In long-run dṘ = 0, dE = 0 and our endogenous variables become dY, di and dR.
𝑑𝑇
−𝐶𝑌 𝑑 1 𝑋𝑌 𝐹 0 0 0 𝑑𝐺
𝐴 −𝐼𝑟 0 𝑑𝑌 1 𝑀 𝑑𝑌 𝐹
[ 𝑖𝐿 𝐿𝑌 −1/𝑃 ] [ 𝑑𝑖 ] = [ 0 0 0 − 2 0 ] 𝑑𝐷
𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 0 𝑑𝑅 𝑃 𝑃
0 0 𝑋𝑌 𝐹 0 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 𝑑𝑃
[ 𝑑𝑖𝑓 ]
𝐴 −𝐼𝑟 0
1 𝐾𝑖 ′ −𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌
∆′′ = | 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑌 − | = 𝐴 ( ) + 𝐼𝑟 ( )<0
𝑃 𝑃 𝑃
𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 0
1 −𝐼𝑟 0
1
|0 𝐿𝑌 − 𝑃|
𝑑𝑌 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′
= = >0
𝑑𝐺 ∆′′ 𝑃∆′′
0 −𝐼𝑟 0
1 1
| 𝐿𝑌 − 𝑃|
𝑃
𝑑𝑌 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 0
= =0
𝑑𝐷 ∆′′
(iii) Effects under Flexible ER system:
Under flexible exchange rate system dR and dṘ are both zero and dE is endogenous.
𝑑𝑇
−𝐶𝑌 𝑑 1 𝑋𝑌 𝐹 0 0 0 𝑑𝐺
𝐴 −𝐼𝑟 −𝛽 𝑑𝑌
1 𝑀 𝑑𝑌 𝐹
[ 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑌 0 ] [ 𝑑𝑖 ] = [ 0 0 0 − 2 0 ] 𝑑𝐷
𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌 −𝐾𝑖 ′ −𝛽 𝑑𝐸 𝑃 𝑃
0 0 𝑋𝑌 𝐹 0 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′ 𝑑𝑃
[ 𝑑𝑖𝑓 ]
𝐴 −𝐼𝑟 −𝛽
∆′′′ = | 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑌 0 | = 𝐴(−𝛽𝐿𝑖 ) + 𝐼𝑟 (−𝛽𝐿𝑌 ) − 𝛽(−𝐿𝑌 𝐾𝑖 ′ − 𝐿𝑖 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌)
′
𝐸𝑀 𝑌 −𝐾𝑖 ′ −𝛽
= −𝛽(𝐴𝐿𝑖 + 𝐼𝑟 𝐿𝑌 − 𝐿𝑌 𝐾𝑖 ′ − 𝐿𝑖 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌)
= −𝛽(𝐿𝑖 (1 − 𝐶𝑌 𝑑 + 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌) + 𝐼𝑟 𝐿𝑌 − 𝐿𝑌 𝐾𝑖 ′ − 𝐿𝑖 𝐸𝑀′ 𝑌)
∆′′′ = −𝛽(𝐿𝑖 (1 − 𝐶𝑌 𝑑 ) + 𝐼𝑟 𝐿𝑌 − 𝐿𝑌 𝐾𝑖 ′ ) > 0
1 −𝐼𝑟 −𝛽
|0 𝐿𝑌 0 |
𝑑𝑌 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′ −𝛽 −𝛽𝐿𝑖
= ′′′
= ′′′ > 0
𝑑𝐺 ∆ ∆
0 −𝐼𝑟 −𝛽
1
|− 𝐿𝑌 0 |
𝑃
𝑑𝑌 0 −𝐾𝑖 ′ −𝛽 −𝛽𝐼𝑟
= ′′′
= >0
𝑑𝐷 ∆ 𝑃∆′′′
We can further move on with our analysis of perfect and imperfect capital mobility among
economies both under fixed and flexible exchange rate systems.