Module 1: Drawing Conclusions

1.1: Theory

Consider the following statement.

Whenever I am happy, I watch television.

We will draw 4 conclusions from this statement.

Conclusion 1: Every time I am happy, I will certainly watch television.

This is fairly straightforward.

Nothing else really matters – as long as I am happy, I will watch television.

We can see this in the Venn diagram below.

The oval “I am happy” is entirely within the oval “I watch television.”

I watch television

I am happy

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Conclusion 2: If I watch television, I may or may not be happy

We are only given information about what happens when I am happy.

But what about when I am not happy?

When I am sad?

Or bored?

I could also watch television!

We do not have enough information to determine whether I am happy or not.

The statement “Whenever I am happy, I watch television” is NOT the same as the statement
“Whenever I watch television, I am happy.”

Broadly speaking, the statement “A → B” is NOT the same as the statement “B → A.”

A very important concept in Thinking Skills is that statements are not reversible.

We can see this in the Venn diagram below.

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 I watch television

I am happy

The shaded part of the oval “I watch television” does not overlap with the oval “I am happy.”

This means that sometimes when I watch television, I am not happy.

The unshaded part of the oval “I watch television” overlaps with the oval “I am happy.”

This means that other times when I watch television, I am happy.

Conclusion 3: Whenever I am not watching television, I am unhappy

We can see this in the Venn diagram below.

I watch television

I am happy

Consider the shaded space outside of the oval “I watch television.”

This space is also outside of the oval “I am happy.”

This means that whenever I am not watching television, I am not happy.

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Conclusion 4: If I am unhappy, I may or may not watch television

We are not given any information about when I am unhappy.

There is nothing saying that I cannot watch television, or that I will watch television.

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1.2: Sample Questions from NSW Department of Education

NSW Question 3

“Whoever stole the money must have had both an opportunity and a motive.”

If this is true, which one of these sentences must also be true?

a) If Finn had both an opportunity and a motive, he must have stolen the money
b) If Finn did not steal the money, he cannot have had an opportunity
c) If Finn did not steal the money, he cannot have had a motive
d) If Finn did not have a motive, he cannot have stolen the money

Answer: D

Have opportunity and motive

Stole the money

Option A is incorrect. If Finn had both an opportunity and a motive, he may or may not have
stolen the money (Conclusion 2).

Option B is incorrect. If Finn did not steal the money, he may or may not have had an
opportunity (Conclusion 4).

Option C is incorrect. If Finn did not steal the money, he may or may not have had a motive
(Conclusion 4).

Option D is correct. The shaded space outside the “Have opportunity and motive” oval is also
outside the “Stole the money” oval (Conclusion 3).

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NSW Question 11

To become a successful architect, you need to be creative and also have excellent
attention to detail.

Will: “Sally is creative – she loves drawing and painting – and always checks her written work
carefully. She’s sure to become a great architect.”

Evie: “James enjoys writing stories and has a vivid imagination, but he struggles with detailed
tasks. Architecture is probably not for him.”

If the information in the box is true, whose reasoning is correct?

a) Will only
b) Evie only
c) Both Will and Evie
d) Neither Will nor Evie

Answer: B

Will is incorrect. All successful architects are creative and attentive. However, just because
someone is creative and attentive, does not mean they will become a successful architect. They
may or may not become a successful architect (Conclusion 2).

Evie is correct. All successful architects are creative and attentive. Anyone who is not attentive,
cannot be a successful architect (Conclusion 3).

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NSW Question 18

Monotremes are the only type of mammal that lay eggs.

Jack: “If you see a mammal laying an egg, you know it must be a monotreme.”

Amelia: “And if you see an animal laying an egg, and you know it isn’t a monotreme, then it
can’t be a mammal.”

If the information in the box is true, whose reasoning is correct?

a) Jack only
b) Amelia only
c) Both Jack and Amelia
d) Neither Jack nor Amelia

Answer: C

Jack is correct. Monotremes are the only type of mammals that lay eggs. There are no other
types of mammals which lay eggs. This means that all mammals which lay eggs are
monotremes.

Amelia is correct. All monotremes are mammals. This animal is not a monotreme, so it is
certainly not a mammal (Conclusion 1).

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NSW Question 21

If Monti does not sleep well, then he’s likely to be tired.

If he is tired, then he will not perform well at the interview.

If he performs well at the interview, then he might be offered the job. Otherwise he doesn’t
stand a chance.

If the above statements are correct, which one of the following is not possible?

a) Monti did not sleep well but got the job.

b) Monti slept well but did not get the job.
c) Monti performed well at interview but did not get offered the job.
d) Monti was tired at the interview but still did well enough to get the job.

Answer: D

Option A is incorrect. If Monti does not sleep well, then he’s likely to be tired. However, there is
a chance that he is not tired, in which case he may perform well at the interview and stands a
chance at getting the job. Note: “likely” is the keyword here. It is different to “will be.”

Option B is incorrect. If Monti sleeps well, then he may or may not be tired (Conclusion 4). If he
is tired, then he will not perform well at the interview and fail the job search.

Option C is incorrect. If Monti performs well at the interview, then he may or may not be
offered the job.

Option D is correct. If Monti is tired at the interview, then he will not perform well at the
interview and not stand a chance at getting the job. It is impossible for him to still do well
enough to secure the job.

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NSW Question 23

Jarrah’s music teacher has promised that any students who did not have a chance to
perform in the Spring concert will definitely be chosen to play in the Autumn concert.

Jarrah: “Well, I did perform in the Spring concert. So that means I definitely won’t be chosen for
Autumn. I’ll have to find something else to do.”

Which one of the following sentences shows the mistake Jarrah has made?

a) Just because anyone who did not play in Spring will play in Autumn, it does not mean
that anyone who played in Spring will not play in Autumn.
b) Just because somebody is chosen for the concert, it does not mean they will actually
perform.
c) Just because Jarrah was chosen to perform at a concert in the past, it does not mean he
will be chosen again in future.
d) Just because someone did not perform in the Spring concert, it does not mean that they
would not have liked to.

Answer: A

Students who performed in the Spring concert may or may not be chosen to play in the Autumn
concert (Conclusion 4).

Just because people who played in the Spring concert will play in the Autumn concert, does not
mean that people who played in the Spring concert will not play in the Autumn concert.

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NSW Question 24

In a survey of television viewers, everyone who liked volleyball liked skiing. Everyone who liked
skiing liked cycling, but no one who liked skiing liked gymnastics.

Darren, Amanda, Lee and Jess all took part in the survey.

Based on the above information, which one of the following must be true?

a) If Darren likes cycling, he also likes skiing.

b) If Amanda does not like gymnastics, she does not like cycling.
c) If Lee does not like volleyball, he does not like skiing.
d) If Jess likes volleyball, she does not like gymnastics.

Answer: D

Cycling

Skiing

Volleyball

Option A is incorrect. If Darren likes cycling, he may or may not like skiing (Conclusion 2).

Option B is incorrect. There is no given relationship between gymnastics and cycling.

Option C is incorrect. If Lee doesn’t like volleyball, he may or may not like skiing (Conclusion 4).

Option D is correct. If Jess likes volleyball, she certainly likes skiing (Conclusion 1). If she likes
skiing, she certainly doesn’t like gymnastics (Conclusion 1).

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NSW Question 27

Whenever the red light on the side of Yifan’s computer is flashing on and off, it means
that the processor is starting to overheat.

Yifan: “The red light isn’t flashing at the moment, so the temperature of the processor must be
fine.”

Ria: “No, that’s not right. The light is on continuously – that must mean that the processor has
already overheated!”

If the information in the box is true, whose reasoning is correct?

a) Yifan only
b) Ria only
c) Both Yifan and Ria
d) Neither Yifan nor Ria

Answer: D

Yifan is incorrect. If the red light isn’t flashing at the moment, the temperature of the process
may or may not be fine (Conclusion 4). We are not given any information on this.

Ria is incorrect. If the red light is on continuously, the temperature of the process may or may
not be fine (Conclusion 4). We are not given any information on this.

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