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AU SFB - Centrum - 190324 - EBR
AU SFB - Centrum - 190324 - EBR
Institutional Research
India I BFSI
19 March, 2024
We participated in AU-Fincare Bank's analyst meet, aimed at discussing its vision for FY24- Market Data
27 and growth trajectory. The meeting outlined three main objectives: 1) Management Bloomberg: AUBANK IN
emphasized that the credit cost increase during 3QFY24 should be viewed as an anomaly. 52 week H/L: 813/548
They assured that AU would revert to reporting credit costs within its historical range within Market cap: Rs374.8bn
a quarter, as newer products mature; 2) The bank is actively shifting its AUM mix towards Shares Outstanding: 669.1mn
higher-yielding products such as microfinance, credit cards, and small business loans. This Free float: 65.4%
strategic move is expected to boost yields and prevent further compression of NIM; and 3)
Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 33,77,675
The Bank aims to achieve a RoA of 1.8% by FY27, up from the current 1.5%. This will be Source: Bloomberg
driven by: a) Expansion of NIMs through increased yields and anticipated rate cuts in the
second half; b) Calibrated investments in new products and branches would lead to Changes in the report
operational efficiencies; and c) Anticipated reduction in credit costs in the future. However Rating: Unchanged
given the near-term challenges, we maintain an ADD rating on the stock with a revised TP Target price: Unchanged
of Rs. 809 (Rs764). EPS: (7.1%) FY20E, (8.3%) FY21E
Source: Centrum Broking
Expect deposit and credit growth of ~20-25% over FY24-27
According to the management, the bank is poised to achieve substantial growth of 20-25% in AUBANK relative to Nifty Midcap 100
both deposits and credit over the next three years. To bolster its deposit base, the bank 170 Nifty Midcap 100
intends to leverage the urban liability branches of Fincare, utilizing its effective liability 155
products to ensure cost-efficient deposit expansion. Additionally, the growth in credit will be 140
primarily driven by higher-yielding products such as microfinance, credit cards, small business 125
loans, and affordable housing loans. It's noteworthy that, on a consolidated basis, the 110
95
microfinance and unsecured loan portfolios will be limited to 10% and 20% respectively, AUBANK
80
ensuring a balanced and sustainable approach to growth. Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24
Management's assurance in achieving historical return profile Source: Bloomberg
In the past, AU Bank has consistently achieved an average RoA of 1.7% over the period FY18-
Shareholding pattern
23, along with an impressive 31% CAGR in AUM, even amidst challenging macroeconomic
Dec-23 Sep-23 Jun-23 Mar-23
conditions that have tripped up its peers. Consequently, the stock enjoys a premium
Promoter 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5
valuation. Moreover, the management has expressed confidence in sustaining their growth
trajectory of approximately 25% over FY24-27 and achieving a return profile of around 1.8% FIIs 41.1 41.6 41.6 39.7
by FY27. This confidence is underpinned by synergies from the addition of higher-margin DIIs 20.8 19.6 19.3 20.6
products and cross-selling opportunities, as well as expected operational efficiencies, and Public/other 12.6 13.3 13.6 14.1
calibrated strategic investments. Source: BSE
Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
AU Small Finance Bank 19 March, 2024
Thesis Snapshot
AU Small Finance Bank versus NIFTY Midcap 100 Valuations
1m 6m 1 year AUBANK has enjoyed premium multiples due to consistent loan growth,
AUBANK IN (6.5) (23.2) (5.1) pristine asset quality and attractive return ratios. However, this strategic
shift could potentially expose the bank to macroeconomic challenges, which,
NIFTY Midcap 100 (6.7) 13.3 54.2
up until this point, AUBANK has managed to weather more effectively than
Source: Bloomberg, NSE
its peers in the SFB sector. Hence, we maintain an ADD rating on the stock
with a revised TP of Rs. 809 (Rs764).
Key assumptions Valuations Rs/share
Y/E Mar FY24E FY25E FY26E 1HFY26E ABV (Rs) 231
AUM Growth 39.3 25.0 24.0 Ascribed P/BV (x) 3.5
NII growth 24.3 22.4 32.1 Target Price (Rs) 809
Other Inc./Assets 1.8 1.8 1.7 Upside to CMP 44%
Opex/Assets 4.9 5.1 5.0
Provision Cost 0.9 1.2 1.3 P/ABV mean and standard deviation
Source: Centrum Broking 7.0
5.0
3.0
1.0 Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
P/ABV Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Mean + 2Std Dev Mean - 2Std Dev
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
Peer comparison
EPS (Rs) ABVPS (Rs) RoAA (%) RoAE (%)
Company
FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
EQSFB 5.2 7.2 9.2 12.5 43.6 48.9 56.2 66.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 12.2 14.5 16.2 18.8
UJJIVANS 5.6 6.5 6.7 8.6 21.5 27.0 32.0 39.2 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.8 31.4 26.5 22.3 23.0
SURYODAY 7.3 19.6 26.0 29.8 140.5 160.1 187.2 216.6 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 5.0 12.3 14.2 14.1
Average 6.0 11.1 14.0 17.0 68.5 78.7 91.8 107.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 16.2 17.8 17.6 18.6
AUBANK 21.4 23.5 28.8 38.1 159.7 179.2 201.4 232.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 15.9 13.4 14.4 16.3
Credit Cards Moderate Optimizing sourcing channels and increased collaboration with branch banking
QR Code/ merchant Moderate + Align w.e.f. April’23, sourcing strategy aligned with Branch banking and deployment of QR code is
for Current account deepening
Natural ask from customers and strategic hook for our liabilities business
Personal Loans and Business Loans Profitable Developing platform to acquire NTB customers and cross-sell
270040
84.62%
2,54,540
84.40%
84.34%
84.17%
2,43,840
83.25%
300000
2,28,330
81.91%
86%
2,14,770
275000
80.48%
2,00,950
84%
79.47%
1,86,140
250000
1,73,000
225000 82%
200000 80%
175000 78%
150000 76%
Nov-22
Nov-23
Nov-22
Nov-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
2.68%
2.56%
16.96%
2.30%
20%
2.14%
2.10%
3%
2.05%
2.01%
15.65%
1.96%
14.61%
18% 3%
13.78%
13.65%
13.50%
13.48%
16% 2%
2%
14%
1%
12% 1%
10% 0%
Nov-23
Nov-22
Nov-23
Nov-22
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
Exhibit 8: MBL AUM continuously show positive trend Exhibit 9: MBL's current % trends lower than others
AUM (Mn) CURRENT%
2,08,580
78.84%
2,03,420
240000
1,99,230
78.30%
1,95,100
78.00%
77.93%
80%
1,82,150
220000
76.82%
1,74,670
79%
1,69,120
1,65,240
200000 78%
75.55%
75.09%
74.99%
180000 77%
76%
160000
75%
140000 74%
Jun-23
Jun-22
Dec-22
Dec-23
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Sep-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
Exhibit 10: Declining SMA trends in MBL financing Exhibit 11: MBL's rising NPA trend
SMA% NPA%
2.96%
22.31%
22.11%
2.86%
21.66%
2.79%
2.79%
3%
2.78%
23%
2.71%
2.70%
3%
20.40%
22% 3%
2.50%
3%
19.21%
21%
19.04%
19.00%
3%
18.66%
20% 3%
2%
19%
2%
18% 2%
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
10%
8%
6%
4.33%
3.68%
4% 3.27% 3.09%
2.24%
1.31% 1.50% 1.56% 1.22%
2% 1.09%
0.16% 0.08% 0.44%
0.08% 0.24% 0.07% 0.16%
0%
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Exhibit 13: HL growth outpaces others… Exhibit 14: Decline in HL-Current % from recent period.
AUM(Mn) CURRENT%
60000 54,530
50,660 96% 95.56% 95.60%
46,950
50000 42,810 96%
36,930 94.94% 94.95% 94.82%
40000 33,650
30,040 95% 94.53%
26,540 94.32%
30000 95%
93.89%
20000 94%
10000 94%
0 93%
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Sep-22
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
Exhibit 15: HL-SMA display high rate than others Exhibit 16: HL-NPAs in an upward trend..
SMA% NPA%
6% 5.56% 0.6% 0.55%
6% 5.24% 0.6%
5.02%
0.48%
5% 4.64% 4.61% 4.69% 0.5%
0.44% 0.45% 0.44% 0.44%
5% 4.08% 0.5% 0.42%
4.00%
4% 0.4%
0.33%
4% 0.4%
3% 0.3%
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
3%
2%
2%
1.01% 1.02%
0.86%
1% 0.69%
0.33% 0.35%
1%
0.06% 0.05%
0.00% 0.02%
0%
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Ratios* Ratios*
YE Mar FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E YE Mar (Rs mn) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Growth (%) Balance Sheet (%)
Loans 33.2 26.7 25.6 24.0 23.9 Loans / Deposits 87.7 84.2 85.4 84.7 84.0
Deposits 46.2 31.9 27.6 25.0 25.1 Investments / Deposits 29.1 28.9 27.9 27.7 27.7
RWA growth 30.2 33.2 24.1 26.7 26.2 CASA 37.3 38.4 31.5 30.7 32.0
NII 36.7 36.8 24.3 22.4 32.1 Assets/equity (x) 9.2 8.2 8.4 9.1 9.8
Other income (30.1) 4.1 58.9 25.6 16.4 RWA / Total assets 52.7 53.8 54.8 55.8 56.7
Opex 46.9 42.6 29.7 27.9 20.8 Capital ratios (%)
PPoP (15.3) 11.3 32.5 14.8 43.0 CET-1 19.7 21.8 21.0 19.0 17.6
Provisions (46.1) (57.1) 56.3 56.7 36.3 Tier-1 19.7 21.8 21.0 19.0 17.6
Net profit (4.8) 26.4 23.7 (0.6) 50.8 Tier-2 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9
Profitability (%) CRAR 21.0 23.6 22.4 20.1 18.5
Yield on assets 10.0 10.8 12.3 12.3 12.4 Asset quality ratios (%)
Cost of funds 5.3 5.6 6.6 6.5 6.2 GNPA (Rs mn) 9,244 9,813 17,371 25,616 35,118
NIM 5.5 5.8 6.4 6.4 6.8 NNPA (Rs mn) 2,719 2,862 6,189 9,321 11,927
Other income / Total inc. 23.5 18.9 22.6 23.1 20.9 GNPA 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6
Other inc. / avg assets 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 NNPA 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9
Cost/Income 57.1 63.0 63.2 65.7 61.8 PCR 75.0 75.0 64.4 63.6 66.0
Employee 32.6 32.8 32.3 30.9 29.5 Slippage 3.4 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.6
Other 24.5 30.2 30.9 34.7 32.3 NNPA / Equity 3.6 2.6 4.2 5.5 6.1
Opex/ Avg assets 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 Per share
Provisioning cost 0.9 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 EPS 35.9 21.4 25.5 25.4 38.3
Tax rate 22.3 23.4 25.2 27.6 25.2 BVPS 238.6 164.6 199.7 227.5 264.9
RoE 16.4 15.4 14.0 13.5 15.5 ABVPS 228.7 159.7 190.5 214.1 248.0
RoA 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 Valuation (x)
RoRWA 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.9 P/E 18.6 31.1 21.9 22.1 14.6
Du-pont (%) P/BV 2.8 4.0 2.8 2.5 2.1
Interest income 9.8 10.3 11.6 11.6 11.8 P/ABV 2.9 4.2 2.9 2.6 2.3
Interest expenses 4.5 4.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 Source: Company, Centrum Broking *FY22 & FY23 are standalone numbers
NII 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.4
Other income 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.7
Total income 7.0 6.9 12.9 13.1 13.1
Operating expenses 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.0
Employee 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4
Other 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.6
PPOP 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.1
Provisions 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9
PBT 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2
Tax 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
RoA 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6
Source: Company, Centrum Broking *FY22 & FY23 are standalone numbers
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Our ratings denote the following 12-month forecast returns:
Buy – The stock is expected to return above 15%.
Add – The stock is expected to return 5-15%.
Reduce – The stock is expected to deliver -5-+5% returns.
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AU Small Finance Bank
Source: Bloomberg
1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
Limited (CBL) Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered
Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.
3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)
4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest No
5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month
No
immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.
6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material conflict of interest No
7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of products / services for which
No
such compensation is received
8 Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the
No
research report
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10 Whether the Research Analyst has been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. No
11 Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months; No
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company
12 No
in the past twelve months;
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage
13 No
services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
Research Analyst
SEBI Registration No. INH000001469
Website: www.centrumbroking.com
Investor Grievance Email ID: investor.grievances@centrum.co.in