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Anais Williams, Ebony Smith, Noah Evans

Analysis of Comparative Politics

Professor Spoon

8 December 2023

Government Formation Proposal - Steady Coalition - AfD, CDU/CSU, and FDP

Introduction

As the Traffic Light coalition prepares to take its leave, the German people are looking

for a new alternative. Scholz’s government has dropped to below a 17% approval rating

(Kinkartz 2023), and it seems voters are trending toward a more right-wing future. The

Alternative for Germany poll numbers are up, peaking at around 21%, and populist right-wing

leaders have swept through Europe in a clear backlash to the handling of the 2015 Migrant Crisis

and the ongoing refugee crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. Voters want solutions to

immigration issues, and the right might have just what the German populace is looking for. This

paper will propose a ‘Steady Coalition’, a formation of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), Free

Democratic Party (FDP), and Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU). By examining the

commonalities between each voter base and the resonant issues for each party, it will become

clear that such a coalition will work best for Germany.

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Coalition Formation, Structure, and Seat Share

The proposed ‘Steady Coalition’ will be a minimal winning

coalition, with 372 seats of the 368 needed majority. The coalition will

comprise the CDU/CSU with 197 seats, the FDP with 92, and the AfD with

83. Given that the CDU/CSU itself has the largest portion of these seats,

they will be the majority party. As a result, both the FDP and the AfD will

be junior parties in the coalition.

The CDU/CSU, being the largest among the three parties, will be the formateur for the

coalition. The party will also hold the Chancellorship and have a greater number of cabinet

positions compared to the AfD and the FDP (per Gamson, 1961, as cited in Martin and

Stevenson, 2001).

Policy Framework, Core Principles, and Coalition Objectives

The coalition puts forth a comprehensive strategy to bolster economic development while

addressing immigration concerns. The focus lies on fortifying border security measures to

regulate immigration while simultaneously fostering a robust and efficient integration system for

legal migrants. Emphasis is placed on uniting Germany and mitigating the rise of right-wing

populism by implementing inclusive policies that effectively integrate far-right ideologies.

Furthermore, advocating for decentralization remains a cornerstone, allowing the free market

economy to thrive without unnecessary government intervention. This coalition aims to strike a

delicate balance, nurturing economic growth while ensuring security and cohesion within the

nation.
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Party Summaries

Founded in 1945 the CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/ Christian Social Union) is

a combination of the West and East German parties that catered to Catholic and Protestant

Christians. The party is categorized as a decentralized center-right or “secular” party. The

reduction of corporate taxes, stricter immigration laws, and a more active role in world affairs are

a few of the goals of the CDU/CSU (Political Parties). The CDU/CSU has a RILE score of four

to six, which is explainable because the party does have several conservative viewpoints that

coincide with Christian principles.

The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is referred to as a center-right “neoliberal” party that

hovers right around the middle of the political spectrum (around a 5 on the RILE scale). They are

most known for their long and good-standing relationship with the CDU/CSU as they have both

held office positions in office and worked together in the past. The FDP stands for personal

freedom and restricting the power of the state. Its goals are mostly office-seeking, as staying in

power will ensure that the party does not slip out of relevance. The FDP, while generally

right-leaning, does stand for a few liberal policies such as the advancement of Germany’s

technology infrastructure and digitization, as well as robust education spending. However, their

policy often centers around reducing government spending and regulation. Economic issues such

as privatization and tax cuts often rule their policy.

The AfD (Alternative For Germany) party is categorized as a right-wing populist party

that advocates for stricter immigration control, German nationalism (primarily through

Euroscepticism), and national conservatism. The Afd and its voters also have low trust in
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established center parties and their political inclination (Political Parties). Using the CMP data,

the RILE score of AfD sits between a five-to-six due to their conservative policies.

Voter Demographics

Understanding what type of voter supports each party is an important component in

analyzing if the Steady Coalition would be both plausible and effective. Each of the three parties

in the Steady Coalition has different voters and this is

believed to help all parties be successful to be elected in this

coalition and coalitions in the future. The CDU/CSU’s

strongest voter pool comes from middle-class older white

Germans with medium to low education levels. Although this

is the strongest group of voters the CDU/CSU has widespread

support across different races, ages, genders, and religious

affiliations. (World Values Survey Association). Specifically

looking at ages, the pie chart displays the age breakdown

within Germany of the ages of citizens who can vote and

vote for CDU/CSU. The most concentrated ages are between

25-59 and 65+ for the German population (68.48%). Because of this, CDU/CSU would be the
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best party to be the majority as it is shown that all ages show strong support for the party and the

policies that it stands for (Conradt 2013).

Although the FDP has seen a recent drop in support, thanks to its lackluster policy

efficacy in the traffic light coalition and loss of identity (as the party is

forced to conform to the wants of the SPD/Greens), it is a worthwhile

inclusion in the Steady Coalition. The Free Democratic Party brings nearly

30 years of governing experience (16 of those years were spent within the

governing coalition). The FDP gains its votes from older, medium to

high-income German citizens. Because the CDU/CSU and AfD both have

varying support, it is the belief that the older, wealthier, business-owning

Germans will continue to support the FDP, and their inclusion in this

coalition could be the catalyst to bring the FDP back to its former glory.

The AfD is supported by middle-aged older men with moderate education levels and

medium to low-income levels. AfD is viewed as a

radical party and having the CDU/CSU and the FDP

(two more renowned parties) within the coalition will

allow for AfD to be viewed in a different light and

also add legitimacy to the party. Although they hold

extremely conservative viewpoints, joining this

coalition will show that they are willing and able to

compromise if it means representation, validation, and influence. In the end, this could help AfD
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in later elections by strengthening their typical voter pool and

adding to the diversity of what a voter for this party truly

looks like.

Coalition Policies: Immigration

Crafting a unified immigration policy within this

coalition - despite their shared position on the right of the political spectrum - demands

substantial negotiation and compromise. Although the CDU/CSU has the most negotiating power

in the coalition, they have a low issue salience on immigration - mentioning immigration in their

manifesto a total of four times. Similarly, the

FDP only mentioned it once in their manifesto.

While the issue salience here for these parties

is low, both the leader of the FDP and the

leader of the CDU/CSU have mentioned that

Germany needs immigration reform.

Conversely, the AfD and its voter base have a strong negative view and emphasis on

immigration (WVS, 2021), evidenced by their manifesto's extensive mentions compared to the

CDU/CSU and FDP. Their issue indicates that this is a primary policy they will not be willing to

compromise on. The resulting policy would aim to manage immigration flows, cater to

Germany's economic requirements, and prioritize security while reconciling differing party

stances.

Coalition Policies: Economy

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The German economy has been a point of weakness in the eyes of many voters. The FDP

has failed to enact many policies due to the government expansionist and interventionist ideals of

the Greens and the SPD (who have both influenced the economy through policy more than the

FDP, despite their position in the Finance Ministry). The Steady coalition would solve the

efficiency issues that many voters have with the FDP in the current

coalition. Although Lindner would retain the same position, the

cohesion of economic ideals would make it easier for the

government to withdraw from economic spending and throw the

towel back to businesses in order to prop up the economy. This

similarity in ideals is shown through voter sentiments, which are

largely based on their perception of the parties’ manifestos. The

table below shows that FDP, AfD, and CDU/CSU voters value

government subsidization the least of all the major parties (based on

the 2021 round of the World Value Survey). A few other signs that point the Steady coalition

toward a united economic front are the common positive mentions of a free market economy

throughout the three parties' manifestos according to the comparative manifestos project. Along

with this, the voter base of the three parties consists mainly of people who work in private

businesses and industries, so it would be in the best interest of the Steady coalition (if elected) to

take decisive actions regarding the economy and begin to rollback the subsidies and bans that the

Greens and SPD have managed to roll out over the past three years.
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Right-Wing Populism (Tainted Coalition v Cordon Sanitaire)

One of the coalition's core objectives revolves around uniting Germany and countering

the rise of right-wing populism by integrating far-right perspectives into mainstream political

discourse, a move exemplified by inviting the AfD into a coalition with a major mainstream

party. Formerly, the AfD faced isolation through a cordon sanitaire, isolating their extreme

right-wing ideology. While effective in preventing extremist ideologies from influencing

policies, it has raised questions about managing radical right inclinations within the German

electorate. Recent polling indicates that 22% of eligible German voters would support the AfD

(NPR, 2023), underscoring their significance within the political landscape. This exclusionary

approach alienates already disenchanted voters and exacerbates political discontent, particularly

among those who lack faith in current governance structures (Oltmans, 2019).

Opting to absorb rather than suppress opposing voices, even from extreme ideologies,

emerges as a compelling strategy. Riera and Pastor (2021) suggest that involving such parties in

governance could moderate their positions and potentially diminish right-wing populism.

Integrating the AfD into the political sphere might also bolster voter confidence in the

establishment, especially as the majority of their voters hail from economically struggling areas

like East Germany (Pew Research, 2019). Addressing economic instability - a significant factor

driving radical right popularity (Inglehart and Norris, 2019) - could occur by having the AfD in

government, and as such potentially mitigate the roots of radical right ideology.

Furthermore, incorporating the AfD into the coalition may inadvertently weaken its

standing in the subsequent election cycles as a junior coalition partner (Riera and Pastor, 2021).
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While a tainted coalition with the AfD could legitimize them, it will also hurt their image as an

anti-establishment party - this will compound with the fact that the CDU/CSU, being the senior

partner, will take the credit for any immigration reform that happens (Riera and Paster, 2021).

This move will inevitably work to keep the radical right at bay in Germany for the foreseeable

future.

Coalition Success

In conclusion, the Steady Coalition would be a plausible and ideal government structure

for Germany in the twenty-first century. Each of these parties encompasses the support of the

majority of the voter population in Germany. Each party will see immediate benefits from being

a piece of this coalition whether it be gaining legitimacy from the AfD, sourcing a new voting

pool, having a consistent comeback into being a top party for FDP, and continuing their

governance for the CDU/CSU. The coalition would focus on the issues of immigration, the

economy, uniting Germany, and creating a tainted coalition.

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Works Cited

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2023.

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Fantini, Ellen. “FDP Deputy Leader Says Germany’s Migration Policy Is ‘From the Madhouse.’”
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Free Democratic Party (2021). *There’s never been more to do* [Manifesto]. FDP.

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Jones, Sam. “Germany’s Liberals under Pressure to Pull out of Ruling Coalition.” Financial
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Martin, Lanny W., and Randolph T. Stevenson. "Government Formation in Parliamentary

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NPR. "Germany's Far-Right Party Now Polls Higher Than the Three Parties in Government."
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