Politician

Bharti Nandwani1

1
IGIDR

March 4, 2020

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution

4 / 107
Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice
Positive effects of democratization; no difference in policy making in
democracies and autocracies

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice
Positive effects of democratization; no difference in policy making in
democracies and autocracies
This paper studies policy implications of improving the political
participation of less educated (poorer) voters

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice
Positive effects of democratization; no difference in policy making in
democracies and autocracies
This paper studies policy implications of improving the political
participation of less educated (poorer) voters
In mid-1990s, Brazilian government developed an Electronic voting
(EV) technology as a substitute for paper ballots

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice
Positive effects of democratization; no difference in policy making in
democracies and autocracies
This paper studies policy implications of improving the political
participation of less educated (poorer) voters
In mid-1990s, Brazilian government developed an Electronic voting
(EV) technology as a substitute for paper ballots
EV technology simplifies the process of operating ballots

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice
Positive effects of democratization; no difference in policy making in
democracies and autocracies
This paper studies policy implications of improving the political
participation of less educated (poorer) voters
In mid-1990s, Brazilian government developed an Electronic voting
(EV) technology as a substitute for paper ballots
EV technology simplifies the process of operating ballots
As opposed to literature, this study looks at enfranchisement at an
intensive margin

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice
Positive effects of democratization; no difference in policy making in
democracies and autocracies
This paper studies policy implications of improving the political
participation of less educated (poorer) voters
In mid-1990s, Brazilian government developed an Electronic voting
(EV) technology as a substitute for paper ballots
EV technology simplifies the process of operating ballots
As opposed to literature, this study looks at enfranchisement at an
intensive margin
Paper first estimates electoral effects of this voting technology

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice
Positive effects of democratization; no difference in policy making in
democracies and autocracies
This paper studies policy implications of improving the political
participation of less educated (poorer) voters
In mid-1990s, Brazilian government developed an Electronic voting
(EV) technology as a substitute for paper ballots
EV technology simplifies the process of operating ballots
As opposed to literature, this study looks at enfranchisement at an
intensive margin
Paper first estimates electoral effects of this voting technology
Then looks at impact of enfranchisement of less educated citizens
on redistributive policies

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Introduction
Redistribution - key activity of state
Extent - embedded in a political system
Prediction: Increased political participation of poor voters leads to
more redistribution
Mixed evidence in practice
Positive effects of democratization; no difference in policy making in
democracies and autocracies
This paper studies policy implications of improving the political
participation of less educated (poorer) voters
In mid-1990s, Brazilian government developed an Electronic voting
(EV) technology as a substitute for paper ballots
EV technology simplifies the process of operating ballots
As opposed to literature, this study looks at enfranchisement at an
intensive margin
Paper first estimates electoral effects of this voting technology
Then looks at impact of enfranchisement of less educated citizens
on redistributive policies
Focus - spending on health care
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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation
Voters face large number of candidates making listing names or
illustrations in a ballot impractical

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation
Voters face large number of candidates making listing names or
illustrations in a ballot impractical
State elections are held jointly with federal elections for president,
the federal senate, and the lower chamber of congress

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation
Voters face large number of candidates making listing names or
illustrations in a ballot impractical
State elections are held jointly with federal elections for president,
the federal senate, and the lower chamber of congress
In 1998 elections, a voter in Sao Paulo had to choose one candidate
out of 1265 for the state legislature; 661 for lower chamber of
federal congress; 10 candidates for state governor; 13 candidates for
the federal senate and 12 presidential candidates

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation
Voters face large number of candidates making listing names or
illustrations in a ballot impractical
State elections are held jointly with federal elections for president,
the federal senate, and the lower chamber of congress
In 1998 elections, a voter in Sao Paulo had to choose one candidate
out of 1265 for the state legislature; 661 for lower chamber of
federal congress; 10 candidates for state governor; 13 candidates for
the federal senate and 12 presidential candidates
Until 1994 Brazilian elections used only paper ballots

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation
Voters face large number of candidates making listing names or
illustrations in a ballot impractical
State elections are held jointly with federal elections for president,
the federal senate, and the lower chamber of congress
In 1998 elections, a voter in Sao Paulo had to choose one candidate
out of 1265 for the state legislature; 661 for lower chamber of
federal congress; 10 candidates for state governor; 13 candidates for
the federal senate and 12 presidential candidates
Until 1994 Brazilian elections used only paper ballots
Voting for a state legislator involved writing down chosen candidates
name or electoral number

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation
Voters face large number of candidates making listing names or
illustrations in a ballot impractical
State elections are held jointly with federal elections for president,
the federal senate, and the lower chamber of congress
In 1998 elections, a voter in Sao Paulo had to choose one candidate
out of 1265 for the state legislature; 661 for lower chamber of
federal congress; 10 candidates for state governor; 13 candidates for
the federal senate and 12 presidential candidates
Until 1994 Brazilian elections used only paper ballots
Voting for a state legislator involved writing down chosen candidates
name or electoral number
There are only written instructions

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation
Voters face large number of candidates making listing names or
illustrations in a ballot impractical
State elections are held jointly with federal elections for president,
the federal senate, and the lower chamber of congress
In 1998 elections, a voter in Sao Paulo had to choose one candidate
out of 1265 for the state legislature; 661 for lower chamber of
federal congress; 10 candidates for state governor; 13 candidates for
the federal senate and 12 presidential candidates
Until 1994 Brazilian elections used only paper ballots
Voting for a state legislator involved writing down chosen candidates
name or electoral number
There are only written instructions
In mid-1990s, federal judiciary introduced a new direct-record EV
technology to reduce the time and costs of vote counting

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Voting technology
Brazil - federation of 27 states which comprise over 5000
municipalities
Each state has its own legislature and directly elected governor
Legislators - elected under open-list proportional representation
Voters face large number of candidates making listing names or
illustrations in a ballot impractical
State elections are held jointly with federal elections for president,
the federal senate, and the lower chamber of congress
In 1998 elections, a voter in Sao Paulo had to choose one candidate
out of 1265 for the state legislature; 661 for lower chamber of
federal congress; 10 candidates for state governor; 13 candidates for
the federal senate and 12 presidential candidates
Until 1994 Brazilian elections used only paper ballots
Voting for a state legislator involved writing down chosen candidates
name or electoral number
There are only written instructions
In mid-1990s, federal judiciary introduced a new direct-record EV
technology to reduce the time and costs of vote counting
Voter types candidates number into EV machine
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Voting technology

Machine responds by providing her name, party affiliation, and

picture on screen

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Voting technology

Machine responds by providing her name, party affiliation, and

picture on screen
Voter can then confirm vote or choose to start process again

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Voting technology

Machine responds by providing her name, party affiliation, and

picture on screen
Voter can then confirm vote or choose to start process again
Four reasons why less educated voters find voting under EV easier

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Voting technology

Machine responds by providing her name, party affiliation, and

picture on screen
Voter can then confirm vote or choose to start process again
Four reasons why less educated voters find voting under EV easier
First, provides visual aids

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Voting technology

Machine responds by providing her name, party affiliation, and

picture on screen
Voter can then confirm vote or choose to start process again
Four reasons why less educated voters find voting under EV easier
First, provides visual aids
Second, minimizes voter confusion over which paper ballot to use for
each vote

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Voting technology

Machine responds by providing her name, party affiliation, and

picture on screen
Voter can then confirm vote or choose to start process again
Four reasons why less educated voters find voting under EV easier
First, provides visual aids
Second, minimizes voter confusion over which paper ballot to use for
each vote
Third voters can check if number she typed corresponds to her
choice of candidate

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Voting technology

Machine responds by providing her name, party affiliation, and

picture on screen
Voter can then confirm vote or choose to start process again
Four reasons why less educated voters find voting under EV easier
First, provides visual aids
Second, minimizes voter confusion over which paper ballot to use for
each vote
Third voters can check if number she typed corresponds to her
choice of candidate
Fourth it uses a number-based interface that resembles familiar
devices (telephone keypads and ATMs)

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Voting technology

Machine responds by providing her name, party affiliation, and

picture on screen
Voter can then confirm vote or choose to start process again
Four reasons why less educated voters find voting under EV easier
First, provides visual aids
Second, minimizes voter confusion over which paper ballot to use for
each vote
Third voters can check if number she typed corresponds to her
choice of candidate
Fourth it uses a number-based interface that resembles familiar
devices (telephone keypads and ATMs)
Government conducted large-scale campaign; public service
announcements on TV and radio to instruct public on how to use
new machines

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Design of study

Elections for state officials held after every four years

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Design of study

Elections for state officials held after every four years

All states have same election date

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Design of study

Elections for state officials held after every four years

All states have same election date
In 1990 and 1994 elections - paper ballots were used

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Design of study

Elections for state officials held after every four years

All states have same election date
In 1990 and 1994 elections - paper ballots were used
In 1998 elections municipalities with > 40,500 registered voters used
EV technology

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Design of study

Elections for state officials held after every four years

All states have same election date
In 1990 and 1994 elections - paper ballots were used
In 1998 elections municipalities with > 40,500 registered voters used
EV technology
Assignment rule due to limited production capacity of manufacturer

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Design of study

Elections for state officials held after every four years

All states have same election date
In 1990 and 1994 elections - paper ballots were used
In 1998 elections municipalities with > 40,500 registered voters used
EV technology
Assignment rule due to limited production capacity of manufacturer
Economies of scale in distribution within large municipalities

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Design of study

Elections for state officials held after every four years

All states have same election date
In 1990 and 1994 elections - paper ballots were used
In 1998 elections municipalities with > 40,500 registered voters used
EV technology
Assignment rule due to limited production capacity of manufacturer
Economies of scale in distribution within large municipalities
EV was used for all from next election

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RDD

Threshold creates RDD setup

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RDD

Threshold creates RDD setup

For this we require agents to have limited control over forcing
variable

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RDD

Threshold creates RDD setup

For this we require agents to have limited control over forcing
variable
Assignment rule was announced in May 1998 and voter registration
for municipal elections two years earlier (1996)

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RDD

Threshold creates RDD setup

For this we require agents to have limited control over forcing
variable
Assignment rule was announced in May 1998 and voter registration
for municipal elections two years earlier (1996)
Four states used EV in all its municipalities during 1998 election;
these states were dropped

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RDD

Threshold creates RDD setup

For this we require agents to have limited control over forcing
variable
Assignment rule was announced in May 1998 and voter registration
for municipal elections two years earlier (1996)
Four states used EV in all its municipalities during 1998 election;
these states were dropped
Elections data - federal electoral authority

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RDD

Threshold creates RDD setup

For this we require agents to have limited control over forcing
variable
Assignment rule was announced in May 1998 and voter registration
for municipal elections two years earlier (1996)
Four states used EV in all its municipalities during 1998 election;
these states were dropped
Elections data - federal electoral authority
Perfect compliance with discontinuous assignment rule

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RDD

Threshold creates RDD setup

For this we require agents to have limited control over forcing
variable
Assignment rule was announced in May 1998 and voter registration
for municipal elections two years earlier (1996)
Four states used EV in all its municipalities during 1998 election;
these states were dropped
Elections data - federal electoral authority
Perfect compliance with discontinuous assignment rule
Outcome of interest - number of votes that are valid (can be
assigned a candidate/party)

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RDD

Threshold creates RDD setup

For this we require agents to have limited control over forcing
variable
Assignment rule was announced in May 1998 and voter registration
for municipal elections two years earlier (1996)
Four states used EV in all its municipalities during 1998 election;
these states were dropped
Elections data - federal electoral authority
Perfect compliance with discontinuous assignment rule
Outcome of interest - number of votes that are valid (can be
assigned a candidate/party)
Turnout equals the sum of valid and residual votes

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?
Assumption - conditional expectation of ym on vm is continuous

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?
Assumption - conditional expectation of ym on vm is continuous
TE identifies treatment effect for a municipality with 40,500 voters

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?
Assumption - conditional expectation of ym on vm is continuous
TE identifies treatment effect for a municipality with 40,500 voters
Estimated effects are local; apply to municipalities at the cutoff

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?
Assumption - conditional expectation of ym on vm is continuous
TE identifies treatment effect for a municipality with 40,500 voters
Estimated effects are local; apply to municipalities at the cutoff
One should be careful in extrapolating effects to smaller and larger
municipalities

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?
Assumption - conditional expectation of ym on vm is continuous
TE identifies treatment effect for a municipality with 40,500 voters
Estimated effects are local; apply to municipalities at the cutoff
One should be careful in extrapolating effects to smaller and larger
municipalities
Estimation - nonparametric local linear regression

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?
Assumption - conditional expectation of ym on vm is continuous
TE identifies treatment effect for a municipality with 40,500 voters
Estimated effects are local; apply to municipalities at the cutoff
One should be careful in extrapolating effects to smaller and larger
municipalities
Estimation - nonparametric local linear regression
ym = α + βI (vm > 40, 500) + γvm + δvm I (vm > 40, 500) + m

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?
Assumption - conditional expectation of ym on vm is continuous
TE identifies treatment effect for a municipality with 40,500 voters
Estimated effects are local; apply to municipalities at the cutoff
One should be careful in extrapolating effects to smaller and larger
municipalities
Estimation - nonparametric local linear regression
ym = α + βI (vm > 40, 500) + γvm + δvm I (vm > 40, 500) + m
Different bandwidths are used

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Estimation framework

vm - registered voters in municipality m

TE= ?
Assumption - conditional expectation of ym on vm is continuous
TE identifies treatment effect for a municipality with 40,500 voters
Estimated effects are local; apply to municipalities at the cutoff
One should be careful in extrapolating effects to smaller and larger
municipalities
Estimation - nonparametric local linear regression
ym = α + βI (vm > 40, 500) + γvm + δvm I (vm > 40, 500) + m
Different bandwidths are used
Table 1 - comparison of municipalities above and below cutoff

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Figure: Table 1

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Figure: Figure 2

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Figure: Table 2

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

In 1998 30 separate parties contested

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

In 1998 30 separate parties contested
To see which parties gained from introduction of EV

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

In 1998 30 separate parties contested
To see which parties gained from introduction of EV
Index - constructed from answers of a survey of federal legislators
elected in 1998

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

In 1998 30 separate parties contested
To see which parties gained from introduction of EV
Index - constructed from answers of a survey of federal legislators
elected in 1998
Ranks parties from zero to ten; larger numbers - associated with
right-wing ideologies

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

In 1998 30 separate parties contested
To see which parties gained from introduction of EV
Index - constructed from answers of a survey of federal legislators
elected in 1998
Ranks parties from zero to ten; larger numbers - associated with
right-wing ideologies
However common perception - party positions at federal level do not
correlate with their actions at state level

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

In 1998 30 separate parties contested
To see which parties gained from introduction of EV
Index - constructed from answers of a survey of federal legislators
elected in 1998
Ranks parties from zero to ten; larger numbers - associated with
right-wing ideologies
However common perception - party positions at federal level do not
correlate with their actions at state level
ip -index for party p, votepm - no of votes for party p in municipality
m

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

In 1998 30 separate parties contested
To see which parties gained from introduction of EV
Index - constructed from answers of a survey of federal legislators
elected in 1998
Ranks parties from zero to ten; larger numbers - associated with
right-wing ideologies
However common perception - party positions at federal level do not
correlate with their actions at state level
ip -index for party p, votepm - no of votes for party p in municipality
m
Vote share weighted measurePof parties in municipality m,
votespm n=p ip votespm
P
Im = n=p (ip . P votes pm
) = validvotes m
n=p

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Results

Brazilian politics - multiparty system

In 1998 30 separate parties contested
To see which parties gained from introduction of EV
Index - constructed from answers of a survey of federal legislators
elected in 1998
Ranks parties from zero to ten; larger numbers - associated with
right-wing ideologies
However common perception - party positions at federal level do not
correlate with their actions at state level
ip -index for party p, votepm - no of votes for party p in municipality
m
Vote share weighted measurePof parties in municipality m,
votespm n=p ip votespm
P
Im = n=p (ip . P votes pm
) = validvotes m
n=p

Im goes from 0 to 10

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Figure: Table 3

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system
Administration of public health care is decentralized - state
government responsible for 30%, municipal 20%

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system
Administration of public health care is decentralized - state
government responsible for 30%, municipal 20%
Private healthcare exists simultaneously

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system
Administration of public health care is decentralized - state
government responsible for 30%, municipal 20%
Private healthcare exists simultaneously
Wealthy and more educated make use of private healthcare

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system
Administration of public health care is decentralized - state
government responsible for 30%, municipal 20%
Private healthcare exists simultaneously
Wealthy and more educated make use of private healthcare
Thus increased political participation of less educated should raise
government spending on health care

77 / 107
Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system
Administration of public health care is decentralized - state
government responsible for 30%, municipal 20%
Private healthcare exists simultaneously
Wealthy and more educated make use of private healthcare
Thus increased political participation of less educated should raise
government spending on health care
Result can be because of median voter model or citizen candidate
model

78 / 107
Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system
Administration of public health care is decentralized - state
government responsible for 30%, municipal 20%
Private healthcare exists simultaneously
Wealthy and more educated make use of private healthcare
Thus increased political participation of less educated should raise
government spending on health care
Result can be because of median voter model or citizen candidate
model
Why healthcare?

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system
Administration of public health care is decentralized - state
government responsible for 30%, municipal 20%
Private healthcare exists simultaneously
Wealthy and more educated make use of private healthcare
Thus increased political participation of less educated should raise
government spending on health care
Result can be because of median voter model or citizen candidate
model
Why healthcare?
First provision of health services is a common demand of voters and
within reach of individual legislators

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Policy impact
Since state elections; state - unit of observation to study policy
effects of EV
Federal legislation mandates provision of free-of-charge health care
to all Brazilian citizens
Not required to pay health insurance premiums/out-of-pocket
expenses when using the public system
Administration of public health care is decentralized - state
government responsible for 30%, municipal 20%
Private healthcare exists simultaneously
Wealthy and more educated make use of private healthcare
Thus increased political participation of less educated should raise
government spending on health care
Result can be because of median voter model or citizen candidate
model
Why healthcare?
First provision of health services is a common demand of voters and
within reach of individual legislators
Second health care funding can be affected in a short span of time
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Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue

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Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive

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Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities

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Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006

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Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation

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Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election

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Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election
In 1994 Si - share of voters in state i that changed from using paper
ballots to EV between 1994 and 1998

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Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election
In 1994 Si - share of voters in state i that changed from using paper
ballots to EV between 1994 and 1998
1-Si - change in share of voters using EV between 1998 and 2002
elections

89 / 107
Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election
In 1994 Si - share of voters in state i that changed from using paper
ballots to EV between 1994 and 1998
1-Si - change in share of voters using EV between 1998 and 2002
elections
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period

90 / 107
Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election
In 1994 Si - share of voters in state i that changed from using paper
ballots to EV between 1994 and 1998
1-Si - change in share of voters using EV between 1998 and 2002
elections
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period
If outcome of interest follows this same pattern - evidence of causal
effect of EV
91 / 107
Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election
In 1994 Si - share of voters in state i that changed from using paper
ballots to EV between 1994 and 1998
1-Si - change in share of voters using EV between 1998 and 2002
elections
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period
If outcome of interest follows this same pattern - evidence of causal
effect of EV
Unlikely that an omitted variable would follow this same pattern 92 / 107
Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election
In 1994 Si - share of voters in state i that changed from using paper
ballots to EV between 1994 and 1998
1-Si - change in share of voters using EV between 1998 and 2002
elections
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period
If outcome of interest follows this same pattern - evidence of causal
effect of EV
Unlikely that an omitted variable would follow this same pattern 93 / 107
Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election
In 1994 Si - share of voters in state i that changed from using paper
ballots to EV between 1994 and 1998
1-Si - change in share of voters using EV between 1998 and 2002
elections
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period
If outcome of interest follows this same pattern - evidence of causal
effect of EV
Unlikely that an omitted variable would follow this same pattern 94 / 107
Policy impact
Large portion of state legislature politics revolves around the issue
State legislators can generate additional health care funding by
either amending budget or making official requests to executive
Requests commonly deal with Family Health Program which
allocates a team of health professionals to provide general practice
services for small communities
Yearly data - covering 1994 - 2006
Variable of interest - amount spent in legislative term by a state on
health care and sanitation
Let Si - share of voters in state i that reside in municipalities above
cutoff in 1998 election
In 1994 Si - share of voters in state i that changed from using paper
ballots to EV between 1994 and 1998
1-Si - change in share of voters using EV between 1998 and 2002
elections
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period
If outcome of interest follows this same pattern - evidence of causal
effect of EV
Unlikely that an omitted variable would follow this same pattern 95 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate

96 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie

97 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2

98 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2
Confounding OV needs to grow faster in states with high Si in
1994-1998 period and switch to growing slower in high Si states in
1998-2002 period

99 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2
Confounding OV needs to grow faster in states with high Si in
1994-1998 period and switch to growing slower in high Si states in
1998-2002 period
Can occur through mean-reversing shock affecting high-Si states
during the 1998 electoral term

100 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2
Confounding OV needs to grow faster in states with high Si in
1994-1998 period and switch to growing slower in high Si states in
1998-2002 period
Can occur through mean-reversing shock affecting high-Si states
during the 1998 electoral term
Relationship between Si and y on yearly basis

101 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2
Confounding OV needs to grow faster in states with high Si in
1994-1998 period and switch to growing slower in high Si states in
1998-2002 period
Can occur through mean-reversing shock affecting high-Si states
during the 1998 electoral term
Relationship between Si and y on yearly basis
Estimates effects on variables not expected to be affected by EV:
general economic conditions, birth outcomes for educated mothers,
spending by municipal governments

102 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2
Confounding OV needs to grow faster in states with high Si in
1994-1998 period and switch to growing slower in high Si states in
1998-2002 period
Can occur through mean-reversing shock affecting high-Si states
during the 1998 electoral term
Relationship between Si and y on yearly basis
Estimates effects on variables not expected to be affected by EV:
general economic conditions, birth outcomes for educated mothers,
spending by municipal governments
Focuses on lagged and lead outcomes

103 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2
Confounding OV needs to grow faster in states with high Si in
1994-1998 period and switch to growing slower in high Si states in
1998-2002 period
Can occur through mean-reversing shock affecting high-Si states
during the 1998 electoral term
Relationship between Si and y on yearly basis
Estimates effects on variables not expected to be affected by EV:
general economic conditions, birth outcomes for educated mothers,
spending by municipal governments
Focuses on lagged and lead outcomes
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period

104 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2
Confounding OV needs to grow faster in states with high Si in
1994-1998 period and switch to growing slower in high Si states in
1998-2002 period
Can occur through mean-reversing shock affecting high-Si states
during the 1998 electoral term
Relationship between Si and y on yearly basis
Estimates effects on variables not expected to be affected by EV:
general economic conditions, birth outcomes for educated mothers,
spending by municipal governments
Focuses on lagged and lead outcomes
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period
If outcome of interest follows this same pattern - evidence of causal
effect of EV

105 / 107
Policy impact
Imposing restriction θ98 = -θ02 =θ and pooling data from three
electoral terms to estimate
yie = αe + θSi .Terme98 + γi + βXie + ie
98 02
θ effect of EV on y; θ = θ −θ 2
Confounding OV needs to grow faster in states with high Si in
1994-1998 period and switch to growing slower in high Si states in
1998-2002 period
Can occur through mean-reversing shock affecting high-Si states
during the 1998 electoral term
Relationship between Si and y on yearly basis
Estimates effects on variables not expected to be affected by EV:
general economic conditions, birth outcomes for educated mothers,
spending by municipal governments
Focuses on lagged and lead outcomes
Si positively related to changes in EV use in a period and negatively
related to it in following period
If outcome of interest follows this same pattern - evidence of causal
effect of EV
Unlikely that an omitted variable would follow this same pattern
106 / 107
Figure: Table 4

107 / 107