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Nke Model Final Vincomplete
Nke Model Final Vincomplete
Income Statement
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020P
Revenue 34,350 36,397 39,117 42,051
COGS 19,038 20,441 21,643 23,254
Gross Profit 15,312 15,956 17,474 18,797
Drivers
Revenue growth 6.0% 7.5% 7.5%
Gross margin 44.6% 43.8% 44.7% 44.7%
SG&A as % of revenue 28.7% 29.5% 30.6% 30.6%
EBITDA margin 15.9% 14.3% 14.0% 14.0%
Effective tax rate 13.2% 55.3% 16.1% 16.1%
Balance Sheet
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020P
Cash and equivalents 5,245 4,663 3,029
Accounts receivable, net 3,498 4,272 4,608
Inventories 5,261 5,622 6,119
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 1,130 1,968 2,103
Current Assets 15,134 16,525 15,859
Property, plant, and equipment, net 4,454 4,744 5,050
Identifiable intangible assets, net 285 283 268
Goodwill 154 154 154
Deferred income taxes and other assets 2,509 2,011 2,011
Long-Term Assets 7,402 7,192 7,483
Drivers
Days sales outstanding (DSO) 35 40 40
Inventory Turns 3.9x 3.8x 3.8x
Prepaid exp. as % of revenue 3.1% 5.0% 5.0%
Days payables outstanding (DPO) 41 44 44
Accrued liabilities as % of COGS 16.0% 23.1% 23.1%
Drivers
Capex as % of revenue 2.5% 2.5%
Depreciation as % of capex 70.9% 70.9%
Capex (1,051)
Cash Flow From Investing Activities (1,051)
Equity Schedule
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020P
Stockholder's Equity
Beginning balance 9,040
Net income 4,263
Share repurchase (3,750)
Dividends (1,441)
Option proceeds
Ending balance 8,112
Dividends
Dividend payout ratio 27.3% 65.4% 33.8% 33.8%
Dividends 1,159 1,265 1,360 1,441
Option proceeds
Average strike price
Option proceeds 489 733 700
Long-Term Debt
Beginning Balance 3,470
Repayment / amortization (115)
Issuance 115
Ending Balance 3,470
Revolver
Cash available for revolver 1,029
Beginning revolver balance 0
Draw (paydown) 0
Ending revolver balance 0
Interest
Revolver interest rate 1.00%
Revolver interest expense 0
Long-term debt interest rate 3.09%
Long-term interest expense 107
Total interest expense 107
Shares Outstanding
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020P
Beginning basic shares outstanding 1,658 1,619 1,577
New share issuance 4 4 3
Shares issued from options 17 24 18
Share repurchase
Ending basic shares outstanding
Share Repurchase
Projected P/E Multiple 33.0x
Projected share price
Total shares repurchased 60 70 54
EPS
Net Income
Diluted shares outstanding
EPS
2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P
45,205 48,595 52,240 56,158
24,998 26,873 28,888 31,055
20,206 21,722 23,351 25,102
6 6 6 6
9 9 9 9
3,013 3,239 3,482 3,744
5,775 6,208 6,673 7,174
351 1,555 2,571 3,382
9,154 11,018 12,742 14,314
ule
2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P
40 40 40 40
3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
44 44 44 44
23.1% 23.1% 23.1% 23.1%
dule
2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P
5,050 5,379 5,732 6,112
(801) (861) (926) (995)
1,130 1,215 1,306 1,404
5,379 5,732 6,112 6,521
Step
hedule
2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P
3,919 4,210 4,523 4,862
(3,750) (3,750) (3,750) (3,750)
(1,549) (1,664) (1,789) (1,923)
0 0 0 0
3,029 2,000 2,000 2,000
(2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)
(351) (1,204) (1,016) (811)