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Advances in Climate Change Research 14 (2023) 921e929
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Role of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation in a low-

temperature event in February 2022 in eastern China
Zhi-Fan CHEN a, Ying SUN b,*, Xuebin ZHANG c, Tim LI d, Jin-Hua YU a,**
a
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change
(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and
Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
b
Climate Studies Key Laboratory, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
c
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto M3H 5T4, Canada
d
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu HI 96822, USA
Received 1 May 2023; revised 15 September 2023; accepted 26 November 2023
Available online 30 November 2023

Abstract

In February 2022, eastern China experienced prolonged low temperatures, with significant impacts on agriculture, transportation, and power
supply. The regional average temperature anomaly for February 2022 was
0.65  C, making it the third coldest February from 2000 to 2022.
Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation on low-temperature events is important for climate change
adaptation and mitigation in the region. This study used observational and model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
to conduct an extreme event attribution study. The results showed that anthropogenic forcing led to a 1.5-fold decrease in the probability of 2022-
like events, with anthropogenic greenhouse gases being the primary contributors to this reduction. Conversely, aerosols slightly increased the
likelihood of such events. To evaluate the role of atmospheric circulation in this event, we chose Siberian High as the key circulation system and
employed circulation similarity, intensity classification, and regression methods to estimate the impacts of circulation patterns, circulation in-
tensity, and human-induced circulation change. The results demonstrated that under the influence of the same anthropogenic forcing, the
presence of an anomalous Siberian High and anomalously enhanced intensity of the Siberian High both increased the likelihood of such a cold
event occurrence. However, anthropogenic forcing exerts a negligible effect on such cold events via anomalous circulation.

Keywords: Low-temperature event; Attribution; Intensity of the Siberian high; Anthropogenic forcing; Atmospheric circulation

1. Introduction China led to heavy snowfall, resulting in flight cancellations at

In February 2022, eastern China experienced frequent cold
waves. During this period, the monthly mean temperature in
most areas was 2e4  C lower than that in normal years
(1991e2020) and an abundant moisture supply from southern
* Corresponding author.
** Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: sunying@cma.gov.cn (SUN Y.), jhyu@nuist.edu.cn (YU
J.-H.).
Peer review under responsibility of National Climate Center (China
Meteorological Administration).
some urban airports and speed restrictions on highways
(CMA, 2022; Li et al., 2022; Li et al., 2022). This event had an
extensive impact on agriculture, urban transportation, and
power supply and was thus selected as the top 1 of China's ten
major weather and climate events of the year (CMA, 2022;
http://www.ncc-cma.net/channel/news/newsid/100053). Un-
derstanding the reasons behind the cold events in 2022 and
responding to the needs of the public and government are of
great importance for local disaster prevention and climate
change adaptation.
Studies have shown that the intensity and frequency of
extreme cold events at the global and regional scales decrease

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.009
1674-9278/© 2023 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC
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922 CHEN Z.-F. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 14 (2023) 921e929
with global warming (Christidis et al., 2010; Yin et al., 2018;
Hu et al., 2022). The IPCC AR6 concluded that human in-
fluence is likely to be the main driver of the observed decrease
in cold extremes (IPCC, 2021), impacting individual extreme
cold events and leading to a decrease in their likelihood in
China (Sun et al., 2018; Qian et al., 2018; Duan et al., 2021; Li
et al., 2022; Liu et al., 2022), the eastern United States, and the
United Kingdom (Christidis and Stott, 2012; Trenary et al.,
2016; King, 2017). Recently, a few studies have employed
the circulation intensity index to investigate the impact of
dynamic and thermodynamic factors on extreme cold events
and have found that thermodynamic factors play a dominant
role in the probability changes of extreme cold events (Zhou
et al., 2021; Yu et al., 2022). Using the circulation similarity
method, Christidis et al. (2020) found that large-scale cyclonic
circulation in the southwestern United Kingdom increased the
probability of extreme cold events in 2018 more than tenfold.
Although these studies demonstrated a clear human influ-
ence on cold events, few have focused on the combined in-
fluence of circulation patterns, intensity, and anthropogenic
forcing. Thus, to address this gap, this study focused on the
2022 cold event and determined the role of anomalous atmo-
spheric circulation in such events. We established a link be-
tween external forcing and circulation to investigate their
interaction. The study aimed to expand the event attribution
study to circulation aspects related to the event and address the
possible interaction between external anthropogenic forcing
and circulation impacts.
2. Data and methods
2.1. Observational data
We utilized quality-controlled and homogenized monthly
mean temperature (Tave) data from 2419 meteorological sta-
tions provided by the National Meteorological Information
Center for 1961e2022 (Cao et al., 2016). The designated
research area was eastern China (104e120 E, 20e46 N),
which is the main region affected by the East Asian winter
monsoon and cold waves (Tao et al., 1959). To describe cold
events, we used the anomaly of the monthly mean temperature
(TaveA, relative to 1961e1990) in eastern China in February.
We averaged the monthly mean temperatures onto 2  2
grid boxes and calculated the regional averages. For compar-
ison, we used the monthly minimum temperature to investi-
gate the event and found similar attribution results (not
shown). To investigate the circulation effects, we used the
monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP), 850- and 300-hPa
wind and air temperatures, and 300-hPa geopotential height
from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Fore-
casts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis (Hersbach et al., 2020) to
calculate the intensity of the Siberian High (ISH; 81 ‒113 E,
39 ‒59 N). It is worth noting that the altitudes in the southern
part of the key circulation area are high and the accuracy of
SLP data from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset might be relatively
diminished in high-altitude regions compared to lower-altitude
areas; however, it is still applicable (Huang et al., 2023).
2.2. Model data
We employed the monthly mean temperature and sea level
pressure simulated by climate models that participated in the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6,
Eyring et al., 2016). The historical simulations encompassed
all-forcing (ALL), natural forcing only (NAT), greenhouse gas
forcing (GHG), and anthropogenic aerosol forcing (AA)
simulations for the period 1961e2020 as well as pre-industrial
control (CTL) simulations. Because the NAT simulations for
2015e2020 were driven by the corresponding forcings defined
under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2e4.5
emission scenario (Gillett et al., 2016), the data from 2015 to
2022 were extended using the projections under the SSP2‒4.5
scenario for ALL simulations. Moreover, we restricted the
number of model members by utilizing a maximum of ten runs
from each model. More detailed information on the climate
models is provided in Table A1. We obtained the Tave and ISH
anomalies (TaveA and ISHA) by subtracting the 1961e1990
average from the ALL simulations for all runs of each model.
To maintain consistency between the model and observational
data, all model data were bilinearly interpolated onto
2.0  2.0 grid boxes and masked by observations.
2.3. Evaluation of anthropogenic influence
To estimate the probability of a cold event, we utilized a
kernel-smoothing function to fit the observed and model-
simulated mean temperatures. We employed the ‘normal’
function as the kernel smoother and determined the optimal
bandwidth of the kernel-smoothing window for estimating
normal densities (https://ww2.mathworks.cn/help/stats/
ksdensity.html?s_tid¼srchtitle_site_search_1_ksdensity.htm).
To quantitatively estimate the effects of anthropogenic forcing
and atmospheric circulation on the likelihood of an event, we
used the risk ratio (RR) to estimate probability changes under
different forcing experiments (NASEM, 2016). We estimated
the impact of ALL forcing using the probability of event
occurrence for model experiments with and without anthro-
pogenic forcing, that is, the probability for the ALL and NAT
experiments, expressed as RRALL ¼ PALL/PNAT. Similarly, the
impacts of GHG and AA forcing on the events were expressed
as RRGHG ¼ PGHG/PCTL and RRAA ¼ PAA/PCTL, where PGHG
and PAA denote the event probabilities under the influence of
GHG and AA, respectively, and PCTL represents the proba-
bility under the CTL simulation. We utilized the 11-year
window from 2010 to 2020 for ALL, GHG, NAT, and AA
simulations, as well as 457 11-year chunks for the CTL
simulation, in which all available simulations were used to
represent the current climate background state. We then
pooled the data from all the members of every model
throughout the window period to form a comprehensive set of
samples, which were employed to construct a probability
distribution. We set the observed TaveA for the 2022 cold
event as the threshold for estimating the probability of events
that achieved or exceeded the intensity of the 2022 cold event.
In addition, the 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated
 CHEN Z.-F. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 14 (2023) 921e929 923

using 1000 bootstraps. The procedure is as follows. Initially,
samples of the same length as the original sample are drawn
with replacements from the original dataset. Subsequently, the
probabilities and relative RR values were calculated. This
sequence was repeated 1000 times and the values falling
within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles established a 95% CI.
2.4. Evaluation of circulation effect
2.4.1. Key circulation area
To evaluate the influence of large-scale circulation on event
probabilities, we chose the Siberian High region as a key
circulation area, that is, the region of 81 e113 E, and 39 ‒
59 N (as indicated by the black rectangular box in Fig. 1c,
similar to Park et al. (2011a, b) and Ding et al. (2021)). Minor
adjustments made to its range (expanding or shrinking
simultaneously within 5 in both the longitudinal and lat-
itudinal directions) did not remarkably affect the attribution
results. Previous studies have shown that the Siberian High is a
key circulation system that leads to the invasion of cold waves
into China through a dominant cold northerly flow on its
eastern side (Park et al., 2011a; Ding et al., 2021). In this key
area, both the observational and model results exhibited a
persistent high and showed a strong correlation between SLP
and Tave anomalies in eastern China (Fig. A1b and d).
Northwesterly winds originating from the eastern side of the
Siberian High predominantly influenced Tave in eastern China
during February (Fig. A1b). We then computed the regionally
averaged SLP in February within the key circulation area to
serve as the ISH. As demonstrated in Fig. A1a, there was a
significant ( p < 0.05) negative correlation between TaveA and
ISHA between 1961 and 2022 (r ¼
0.74; rdetrend ¼
0.8).
The model results also showed a significant negative correla-
tion (
0.54 to
0.86,
0.56 to
0.85) after detrending,
indicating that the model reasonably simulated the influence of
the Siberian High on cold events in eastern China (Fig. A1c).
2.4.2. Circulation similarity method
We assessed the impact of circulation on cold events using
three methods. The first was the circulation similarity method
(Christidis et al., 2015, 2022; Wang et al.et al., 2022). We
partitioned the ALL and NAT model experiments into two
subsamples: one with high correlation (abbreviated as High,
r > 0.6, with sample sizes of 81 and 96) between the observed
and model-simulated SLP for 2010e2020 in the key circula-
tion area and the other with low correlation (abbreviated as
Low, r < 0.6, with sample sizes of 447 and 366) between the
observation and models. We defined the occurrence

Fig. 1. Observed low-temperature event in February 2022, (a, b) spatial distribution of TaveA relative to 1961e1990 and 1991e2020, respectively (The brown box
highlights the research area (20 ‒46 N, 104 ‒120 E)), (c) anomalies of mean sea level pressure (shading), 850-hPa wind (vector), and temperature (contour)
relative to 1961e1990 (The black box represents the key circulation area (81 ‒113 E, 39 ‒59 N)), and (d) anomalies of 300-hPa geopotential height (shading)
and wind (vector).
924 CHEN Z.-F. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 14 (2023) 921e929

probabilities of 2022-like events in the high-correlation sub-
samples obtained from the ALL and NAT experiments as
PALL_High and PNAT_High, and the probabilities in the low-
correlation subsamples obtained from the ALL experiment
as PALL_Low. Empirical tests demonstrated that the selection of
correlation coefficient threshold values within the range of
0.4e0.7 only had slight effects on the final results. We
calculated RRALL_High ¼ PALL_High/PNAT_High, which repre-
sented the impact of anthropogenic forcing on events under a
2022-like circulation pattern, and RRALL_High/Low ¼ PALL_High/
PALL_Low, indicating the impact of circulation on events from
the perspective of a 2022-like circulation pattern under the
same anthropogenic forcing (Table 1).
2.4.3. Intensity classification method
The second circulation method is based on the intensity of
the SLP in the key circulation area. We partitioned the samples
based on the presence or absence of a strong Siberian High in
the key area, similar to the method described by Zhou et al.
(2021). Using the February 2022 ISHA (3.12 hPa) as the
threshold, we divided the model results of the ALL and NAT
experiments into two subsamples: strong ISH (abbreviated as
Strong, ISH >3.12 hPa, with sample sizes of 70 and 75) and
weak ISH (abbreviated as Weak, ISH <3.12 hPa, with sample
sizes of 458 and 387). The likelihood of events exceeding the
2022 TaveA threshold under strong ISH conditions in the
subsamples was defined as PALL_Strong and PNAT_Strong for the
ALL and NAT simulations, respectively. Under weak ISH
conditions, the probability of events obtained from the ALL
simulation is denoted as PALL_Weak. We calculated RRALL_-
Strong ¼ PALL_Strong/PNAT_Strong, which represents the influence
of anthropogenic forcing under the 2022 circulation intensity
conditions. RRALL_Strong/Weak ¼ PALL_Strong/PALL_Weak indi-
cated the impact of circulation from the perspective of circu-
lation intensity under the same anthropogenic forcing (Table
1). Compared with the circulation similarity method, the in-
tensity classification method mainly reflects the impact of the
circulation intensity but not the pattern itself. Thus, in strong
ISH subsamples, the spatial correlation between the observed
and model-simulated key circulation patterns may not neces-
sarily be high and in high-correlation subsamples, the circu-
lation strength may not necessarily be strong. As shown in
Fig. A2, in the high-correlation and strong ISH subsamples,
there was substantial positive SLPA in the key circulation
region, coupled with regional TaveA of
0.74  C (
2.14 to
0.88  C) and
2.16  C (
3.11 to
0.54  C), respectively,
compared to TaveA of 1.26  C (0e2.55  C) and 1.29  C
(0.25e2.55  C) within the low-correlation and weak ISH
subsamples over eastern China, respectively.
2.4.4. Regression method
To determine the impact of human-induced circulation on
an event, we employed a regression method to estimate the
probability of change. First, we calculated the multi-run av-
erages of TaveA and ISHA for a model and obtained linear
trends from 1961 to 2020. Next, we removed linear trends
from each run. We then regressed the detrended TaveA onto
the detrended ISHA to obtain the regression coefficient K and

Table 1
Methods for estimating the effects of anthropogenic forcing and circulation, samples, and risk ratios.
Method
Unconditional attribution
Circulation similarity method
Intensity classification method
Regression method
Sample
Total sample
Subsamples with high correlation
(High) and low correlation (Low) to
the February 2022 circulation pattern
Subsamples with strong ISH (Strong)
and weak ISH (Weak)
Subsamples with circulation-related
(CR) part
Risk ratio Description
RRALL ¼ PALL/PNAT Impact of all anthropogenic forcing
(ALL)
RRGHG ¼ PGHG/PCTL Impact of anthropogenic greenhouse
gases forcing (GHG)
RRAA ¼ PAA/PCTL Impact of anthropogenic aerosol
forcing (AA)
RRALL_High ¼ PALL_High/PNAT_High Impact of all anthropogenic forcing
conditioned on specific circulation
pattern
RRALL_High/Low ¼ PALL_High/PALL_Low Impact of circulation from the
perspective of circulation pattern
under the same anthropogenic
forcing (ALL)
RRALL_Strong ¼ PALL_Strong/PNAT_Strong Impact of all anthropogenic forcing
conditioned on specific intensity of
circulation
RRALL_Strong/Weak ¼ PALL_Strong/PALL_Weak Impact of circulation from the
perspective of circulation intensity
under the same anthropogenic
forcing (ALL)
RRCR ¼ PCTL_CR/PCTL Impact of human-induced
circulation, assuming that the trend
of circulation represents its response
to human activities, and the impacts
of both the circulation itself and
human-induced circulation on TaveA
are consistent
 CHEN Z.-F. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 14 (2023) 921e929
computed the response of TaveA to the circulation change as
follows:
R ¼ ISHATrend  K
Where R denotes the response.
Finally, we added R for 2010e2020 to TaveA in the CTL
simulations, which represents the internal climate variability,
yielding circulation-related (CR) TaveA. We calculated the
probability of 2022-like events in the reconstructed simula-
tions and CTL experiments and estimated the risk ratio as
RRCR ¼ PCTL_CR/PCTL, which represents the impact of
human-induced circulation, assuming that the trend of circu-
lation represents its response to human activities and that the
impacts of both the circulation itself and human-induced cir-
culation on TaveA are consistent (see Table 1 for details).
3. Results
3.1. 2022 low-temperature event
In February 2022, negative TaveA expression was observed
in over half of eastern China, with the center primarily
concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and south-
eastern China (Fig. 1a and b). The regional TaveA was

0.65  C (relative to 1961e1990) and
2.49  C (relative to
1991e2020, as the baseline period in China Climate Bulletin
(2022) (CMA, 2022)), marking the third coldest February
from 2000 to 2022. The return period of the February 2022
event was estimated to be 4 years (CI: 3e7 years) based on the
Fig. 2. (aeb) Observed and simulated regional TaveA and ISHA in February for eastern China (Shadings indicate the ensemble spread by the 48 members), (ced)
histograms and probability density function of TaveA and ISHA, and (e) multi-model ensemble mean (MMM) standard deviation and trend of TaveA and standard
deviation of detrended TaveA (ALL_de) within the ALL experiment.
925
probability distribution fitted to the observational data within
the climatic period of 1961e2022. Fig. 1b shows the SLP and
850 hPa wind anomalies in February 2022. The positive
ð1Þ anomaly of SLP in the key circulation area exceeded 7 hPa
and the regional ISHA was 3.12 hPa, which was the third-
highest value from 2000 to 2022. The abnormally strong Si-
berian High and its eastward abnormal northerly wind pro-
vided stable cold air transport during the 2022 cold event.
Furthermore, the interaction between the upper tropospheric
trough and cold advection on the eastern side of the Siberian
High contributes to the maintenance of abnormal northerly
winds (Fig. 1b and c) (Park et al., 2011b). Coupled with the
influence of the easterly airflow from the Northwest Pacific at
mid-low latitudes, some areas in eastern China have experi-
enced frequent snowfall (CMA, 2022). Some studies have
indicated that the La Ni~na-like SST anomaly distribution near
the equatorial Pacific is conducive to maintaining circulation
conditions for cold air invasion during the same period (Zheng
et al., 2021).
3.2. Model performance evaluation
The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble average, as presented in
Fig. 2, generally demonstrates a warming trend consistent with
the observations. The linear trends in TaveA for observations
and the multi-model ensemble mean were 0.47 and 0.21  C
per decade (with a 95% uncertainty range of
0.06 to 0.51  C
per decade), respectively, while there was no significant trend
in ISHA. This showed an underestimation of the model-
simulated trend of TaveA, although the range of simulated
926 CHEN Z.-F. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 14 (2023) 921e929
trends could encompass the observations, which is consistent
with a study on the attribution of winter temperatures in China
(Yin and Sun, 2023). We compared the attribution results of
the dataset that underwent linear trend bias correction using
the single-signal analysis results from the optimal finger-
printing technique for ALL forcing (Yin and Sun, 2023).
These results were roughly consistent with those obtained
from the original model dataset, although there was a slight
improvement in estimating the impact of anthropogenic forc-
ing. The observed standard deviation of TaveA was 2.03  C
(1.83  C after detrending) and the multi-model ensemble mean
standard deviation we 2.04  C (95% uncertainty range:
1.61e2.43  C) and 1.99  C after detrending (95% uncertainty
range: 1.37e2.42  C). This suggests that irrespective of
whether the linear trend was retained or removed, the models
reproduced the standard deviation of the observed TaveA. The
skewness coefficients of observed and simulated TaveA were

0.31 and
0.2, respectively, indicating consistent skewness.
The standard deviations of observed TaveA and ISHA were
2.04  C and 3.18 hPa, noticeably larger than that of the multi-
model ensemble mean TaveA and ISHA, which were 0.54  C
and 0.45 hPa, respectively, implying that the TaveA and ISHA
are influenced to a great extent by internal climate variability.
Statistical tests showed that the model-simulated distribution
of TaveA was slightly skewed towards colder values compared
to the observations, whereas the simulated and observed dis-
tributions of TaveA and ISHA were statistically indistin-
guishable (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p > 0.1) (Fig. 2c and d).
These results indicate that CMIP6 models can be used for
event attribution studies.
3.3. Event attribution
To estimate the impact of human activity on the low-
temperature event of February 2022, we compared the
simulated results of TaveA in the ALL, NAT, GHG, AA, and
CTL simulations. The probability density function of TaveA,
shown in Fig. 3a, suggests that the ALL simulations shifted
Fig. 3. (a) Probability density function of TaveA from ALL, NAT, GHG, AA, and CTL simulations (Vertical gray line and the adjacent number indicate the
observed February 2022 TaveA), and (b) risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals (shading) for TaveA.
towards higher temperatures than the NAT simulations. The
probabilities of achieving or exceeding the intensity of the
2022 cold event in the ALL and NAT simulations were 23.4%
(95%CI: 20.3%e26.4%) and 35.6% (95%CI: 31.8%e39.6%),
respectively, resulting in an RRALL of 0.66 (95%CI:
0.55e0.78) (Fig. 3b). This suggests that the likelihood of
2022-like events was reduced by almost 1.5 times due to
anthropogenic forcing. The probability density functions of
the GHG and AA simulations exhibited opposite shifts
compared to those of the CTL simulation, indicating opposite
impacts on the likelihood of similar events (Fig. 3a). GHG
and AA reduced (increased) the probability of 2022-like
events by approximately 3.6 times (1.7 times), respectively,
with RRGHG of 0.28 (95%CI: 0.22e0.35) and RRAA ¼ 1.72
(95%CI: 1.61e1.82), respectively (Fig. 3b). Because the 2022
event threshold was located at the tail of the GHG simulation
distribution, the probability of its occurrence was low (11.6%)
and had high uncertainty (9%e14.4%), resulting in large
uncertainty in RRGHG.
To estimate the impact of circulation on the 2022 cold event,
we first utilized a circulation similarity method. We compared
the results obtained from the high- and low-correlation sub-
samples of the ALL simulation. As shown in Fig. 4a, b, and d,
we obtained RRALL_High/Low ¼ PALL_High/PALL_Low of 2.94
(95%CI: 2.28e3.73), suggesting that a 2022-like circulation
enhances event probability by a factor of approximately three.
This further emphasizes the crucial role of the key circulation
pattern in contributing to the abnormal cold events in eastern
China in February. We also assessed the impact of anthropo-
genic forcing on event probability conditioned on particular
atmospheric circulation conditions and obtained
RRALL_High ¼ PALL_High/PNAT_High of 0.82 (95%CI: 0.66e1),
indicating that the likelihood of a similar event was reduced by
approximately 1.2 times, which was slightly lower than the
result derived from RRALL. We also noticed that a small sample
size could have led to greater uncertainty in the results.
We then used the intensity classification method to evaluate
the impact of circulation intensity on the events. As shown in
 CHEN Z.-F. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 14 (2023) 921e929 927

Fig. 4. (a) Probability density function of subsamples from ALL simulation with high and low correlation to the February 2022 circulation pattern and strong and weak
ISH obtained using a threshold of 3.12 hPa (ISHA in February 2022) (Vertical gray line and the adjacent number indicate the observed February 2022 TaveA), (b) as in
(a) but from ALL and NAT simulations with high correlation and strong ISH, (c) as in (a) but for CR subsamples from CTL simulation, and (d) RR with 95%
confidence interval (shading) for different samples (circulation similarity method (CSM), intensity classification method (ICM), regression method (RM)).

Fig. 4a and d, the distribution of TaveA leaned notably to-
wards the colder side in the presence of strong ISH. The
comparison between the ALL simulations with strong ISH and
weak ISH led to RRALL_Strong/Weak ¼ PALL_Strong/
PALL_Weak ¼ 4.6 (95%CI: 3.77e5.77). This suggests that the
presence of strong ISH notably increased the probability of
cold events in eastern China, with the likelihood of a 2022-like
event being 4.6 times higher than that in the presence of only
weak ISH. This further underscores the importance of ISH in
contributing to abnormal cold events. Next, we compared the
effects of anthropogenic forcing on the probability of cold
events conditioned by strong ISH. As shown in Fig. 4b and d,
anthropogenic forcing reduced the probability of a similar
event by approximately 1.2 times, with RRALL_Strong ¼
PALL_Strong/PNAT_Strong of 0.85 (95%CI: 0.74e0.96).
Finally, we used a regression method to evaluate the
anthropogenic influence of human-induced circulation
changes on the 2022 cold event. We further obtained the CR
TaveA by detrending TaveA and the ISHA (as described
above). According to Fig. 4c and d, the distribution of CR
TaveA and raw TaveA in CTL simulations showed negligible
separation, with RRCR ¼ PCTL_CR/PCTL of 0.95 (95%CI:
0.86e0.99). This indicates that there were almost no human-
induced circulation effects on the probability of a similar
event and that human activities primarily influenced the
probability of the occurrence of 2022-like cold events by
altering external forcing. We also found that neither the
observed or simulated ISH showed clear linear trends, indi-
cating no changes in the key circulation system related to this
cold event.
4. Summary and discussion
This study evaluated the impact of anthropogenic forcing
and atmospheric circulation on the likelihood of a 2022 cold
event in eastern China using observational data and CMIP6
models. The cold event in 2022 had a clear warming back-
ground. The CMIP6 models reproduced the winter warming
trend in eastern China; however, the multi-model ensemble
mean slightly underestimated these observations. The models
reasonably simulated the observed standard deviations of
TaveA and ISHA and generally encompassed the observed
changes. We found that anthropogenic forcing led to a
reduction in the probability of 2022-like events by 1.5 times.
Greenhouse gases reduced the probability by a factor of 3.6,
whereas the aerosols slightly elevated it, increasing the
928 CHEN Z.-F. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 14 (2023) 921e929
likelihood by a factor of 1.7. Using the circulation similarity
method, we found that the occurrence of an anomalous cir-
culation pattern increased the probability of a cold event by 3
times. Using the intensity classification method, the presence
of strong ISH increased the probability of cold events in
eastern China by 4.6 times. The regression method showed
that human-induced circulation had virtually no impact on the
probability of events.
This study used three methods to comprehensively assess
the influence of circulation on cold events, specifically
answering the question of whether human activities influence
cold events by influencing circulation. Model bias may have
had a slight effect on the attribution results; however, the main
conclusion remains valid. The underestimation of the TaveA
trend could lead to a conservative impact of anthropogenic
forcing; therefore, we should be cautious about the potentially
larger human impacts on cold events. Furthermore, it is crucial
to note that the pathways of cold air affecting China and its
primary climatic systems are not uniform (Tao, 1959).
Consequently, the conclusions drawn in this study may not be
universally applicable to all cold events that occur in eastern
China. The specific physical mechanisms underlying the in-
teractions between circulation patterns, intensity, and external
forcing need to be further explored. In addition, different
definitions of cold events reflect different characteristics,
posing further challenges in understanding the consistency of
attribution analyses.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
This study was jointly supported by the National Natural
Science Foundation of China (42025503, U2342228) and the
Key Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration
Climate Change Detection and Response (CMA2022ZD03).
The authors acknowledge the Program for Climate Model
Diagnosis and Intercomparison and the Working Group on
Coupled Modelling of the World Climate Research Program
(WCRP) for their roles in making the WCRP CMIP multi-
model datasets available.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.009.
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