Introduction part 1, Chapter 1

David Sundgren

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Decision Analysis isn’t Rocket Science. . .
Why make a science of decision making?

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Decision Analysis isn’t Rocket Science. . .
Why make a science of decision making?

Decision making is hard. We need help.

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Decision Analysis isn’t Rocket Science. . .
Why make a science of decision making?

Decision making is hard. We need help.

Nobel Prize.

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Decision Analysis isn’t Rocket Science. . .
Why make a science of decision making?

Decision making is hard. We need help.

Nobel Prize. Simon 1978 Three stage model and bounded rationality.

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Decision Analysis isn’t Rocket Science. . .
Why make a science of decision making?

Decision making is hard. We need help.

Nobel Prize. Simon 1978 Three stage model and bounded rationality.

“(If) there were no limits to human rationality administrative theory would

be barren. It would consist of the single precept: Always select that
alternative, among those available, which will lead to the most complete
achievement of your goals”

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Decision Analysis isn’t Rocket Science. . .
Why make a science of decision making?

Decision making is hard. We need help.

Nobel Prize. Simon 1978 Three stage model and bounded rationality.

“(If) there were no limits to human rationality administrative theory would

be barren. It would consist of the single precept: Always select that
alternative, among those available, which will lead to the most complete
achievement of your goals”

Kahneman 2002 Differences between types of thinking between types of uncertainty.

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Decision Analysis isn’t Rocket Science. . .
Why make a science of decision making?

Decision making is hard. We need help.

Nobel Prize. Simon 1978 Three stage model and bounded rationality.

“(If) there were no limits to human rationality administrative theory would

be barren. It would consist of the single precept: Always select that
alternative, among those available, which will lead to the most complete
achievement of your goals”

Kahneman 2002 Differences between types of thinking between types of uncertainty.

Hurwicz 2007 Mechansim design.

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1
Course Overview

Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4: rationality, decomposition, modeling and

finding of alternatives, states of the world, consequences,
preferences and objectives.

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Course Overview

Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4: rationality, decomposition, modeling and

finding of alternatives, states of the world, consequences,
preferences and objectives.

Certainty Uncertainty
One objective
Multiple objectives

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Course Overview

Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4: rationality, decomposition, modeling and

finding of alternatives, states of the world, consequences,
preferences and objectives.

Certainty Uncertainty
One objective Ch. 5
Multiple objectives

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Course Overview

Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4: rationality, decomposition, modeling and

finding of alternatives, states of the world, consequences,
preferences and objectives.

Certainty Uncertainty
One objective Ch. 5
Multiple objectives Ch. 6

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Course Overview

Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4: rationality, decomposition, modeling and

finding of alternatives, states of the world, consequences,
preferences and objectives.

Certainty Uncertainty
One objective Ch. 5 Ch. 7
Multiple objectives Ch. 6

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Course Overview

Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4: rationality, decomposition, modeling and

finding of alternatives, states of the world, consequences,
preferences and objectives.

Certainty Uncertainty
One objective Ch. 5 Ch. 7, 9
Multiple objectives Ch. 6

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Course Overview

Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4: rationality, decomposition, modeling and

finding of alternatives, states of the world, consequences,
preferences and objectives.

Certainty Uncertainty
One objective Ch. 5 Ch. 7, 9
Multiple objectives Ch. 6 Ch. 10

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1

Course Overview

Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4: rationality, decomposition, modeling and

finding of alternatives, states of the world, consequences,
preferences and objectives.

Certainty Uncertainty
One objective Ch. 5 Ch. 7, 9
Multiple objectives Ch. 6 Ch. 10

Chapter 13: descriptive analysis

David Sundgren Decision Support Methods, presentation 1