Chapter Six

Probability Distributions

1
 Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you are expected to:
• Define random variables and probability distributions
• Interpret the mean and standard deviation for a random
variable
• Explain the difference between a discrete and a
continuous random variable
• Use the binomial, Poisson, and normal probability
distributions to find probabilities
• Describe when to apply the binomial, Poisson, and
normal distributions.
• Find probabilities using a normal distribution table
2
6.1 Definition of Random Variables and Probability
Distributions
• A variable is any characteristic that can be measured or
observed and which may vary or differ among the units
measured or observed.
• A random variable is a variable that takes on different
numerical values according to a chance mechanism.
• It assigns a real number to each outcome of a sample
space.
• Random variables are denoted by upper case letters
such as X, Y, Z, etc.
• The particular values of random variables are denoted
by lower case letters such as x, y, z, etc.
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 Definition of Random Variables and Probability Distributions

▪ For example, any variable measured on the elements of

a randomly selected sample is a random variable.
▪ Example. The sample space for flipping a coin three
times is: S= {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, THH, HTH, HHT,
HHH}
N
TTT
TTH
u
O
b
0 Values
of the
m H
THT
HTT
b e
s
e
1 Random
Variable
e a
THH
HTH
r d
r
v
2
s
HHT
HHH
o
e
d
3
f
4
Definition of Random Variables and Probability
Distributions
Random
Variables

Discrete Continuous
Random Variable Random Variable

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 Discrete Random Variables
• Can only take on a finite or countable number of
outcomes.
Example

– Roll a die twice

Let X be the number of times 4 comes up
(then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times)
– Toss a coin 5 times.
Let X be the number of heads
(then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)
– X = number of pregnancies in a given year.

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 Continuous Random Variables
• Continuous random variables can assume any value in
an interval.
• Some examples of a continuous random variable:
– thickness of an item
– time required to complete a task
– temperature of a solution
– height in inches
• These can potentially take on any value, depending only
on the ability to measure accurately.

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 Probability Distribution
• A Probability Distribution is a listing of all the values
the random variable can assume with their
corresponding probabilities.
• A probability distribution can be either discrete or
continuous.
• A discrete probability distribution assigns a probability
to each possible value that can be assumed by a discrete
random variable.
• A continuous probability density function for a
continuous rv X gives a curve such that the area under
the curve corresponding to some interval on the
horizontal axis.

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 Discrete Probability Distribution
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let X = No. of heads.
Find P(x) , i.e., P(X = x) , for all values of x:

4 possible outcomes
Probability Distribution
T T x Value Probability
0 1/4 = .25
T H 1 2/4 = .50
2 1/4 = .25
H T
Probability

.50

.25
H H
0 1 2 x 9
Probability Distribution Required Properties

P(x)=1 (The individual probabilit ies sum to 1 )

x

x 0 1 2 x 0 1 2
p(x) 0.4 0.2 0.4 p(x) 0.4 0.5 0.4
X -1 0 1 x 0 1 2 3
p(x) 0.3 0.5 0.2 p(x) 0.2 0.7 0.5 -0.4

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 Example . . . 4
• The sample space is:
(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
(2, 1) (2,2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
• The possible values of X = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

P(x) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

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Continuous Probability Distribution


 f(x)dx = 1
−

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 Probability as an Area
Shaded area under the curve is the probability
that X is between a and b

f(x) b
P ( a ≤ x ≤ b ) = a f X (x)dx
= P (a < x < b )
The probability
of any individual
value is zero
x
a b

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Continuous Probability Distribution

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6.2 Expectation: Mean and Variance of a Random Variable

x 0 1 2 3 4 Total
n(x) 2 4 3 2 2 13
X*n(x) 0 4 6 6 8 24

x =  x*nn( x)
x =  x Pr(x)

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Expectation for a Discrete Random Variable
• Expected Value is a weighted average of the possible
values that X can take on and it is given as:
μ = E(x) = x
xP(x)

• Example. The probability distribution for X = the

number of ears affected by one or more episodes of
otitis media (ear infection) during the first two years of
life is:
x 0 1 2
Pr(X=x) 0.13 0.48 0.39
• Find the expected number of ears affected by ear
infection during the first two years of life.
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Expectation for a Discrete Random Variable

X Pr(X=x) xPr(X=x)
0 0.13 0
1 0.48 0.48
2 0.39 0.78
Total 1.26

μ = E(x) =  xP(x) = 0(.13) + 1(.48) + 2(.39) =1.26

x

• Exercise. Toss 2 coins, and define a random variable X

= No. of heads. Compute expected value of x. (Answer
= 1.0)
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 Variance and Standard Deviation
• Variance of a discrete random variable X

σ 2 = E(X − μ)2 =  (x − μ)2 P(x)

x

• Standard Deviation of a discrete random variable X

σ = σ2 = x
(x − μ) 2
P(x)

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 Standard Deviation Example
• Example. Recall the previous example and find the
standard deviation of the number of ears affected by
ear infection.
σ= x
(x − μ) 2
P(x)

Possible number of X = 0, 1, 2
σ = (0 − 1.26)2 (.13) + (1 − 1.26)2 (.48) + (2 − 1.26)2 (.39)
= .452 = .673
• Exercise. Toss 2 coins, and define X = No. of heads.
Compute the standard deviation (Answer = 0.707)

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Expectations for Continuous Random Variables
• The mean of X, denoted μX , is defined as the expected
value of X

μ = E(X) =  xf(x) dx
X −

• The variance of X, denoted σX2 , is defined as the

expectation of the squared deviation, (X - μX)2, of a
random variable from its mean
2 2 2
σ X = E[(X − μ X ) ] =  (x -μ X ) f ( x )dx

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 Linear Functions of Variables
• Let W = a + bX , where X has mean μX and variance
σX2 , and a and b are constants

• Then the mean of W is

μW = E(a + bX) = a + bμX

• the variance is

σ = Var(a + bX) = b σ
2
W
2 2
X
• the standard deviation of W is

σW = b σX 21
 6.3 Common discrete probability distributions
Binomial Distribution
▪ Many experiments result in dichotomous responses, such as
Yes-No, Pass-Fail, Defective-Non-defective, etc.
▪ Such experiments can be binomial experiments.
▪ A binomial experiment is a probability experiment, which
satisfies the following assumptions.
- The experiment is performed repeatedly a finite
number (n) of times under identical conditions .
- The outcome of each trial is classified into two
mutually exclusive categories (success & failure).
- All the trials (events) are independent.
- Probability of success and probability of failure are
constant in each trial. 22
 Binomial Distribution . . .
• Probability of success = p on each trial.
• For any binomial experiment, the probability of any
given number of successes out of n trials is given by the
binomial probability function.

- where, X = the number of successes from n trials.

We write X ~ Bin(n, p)
Pr(X = r) = nCrpr (1- p)n−r, r = 0,1,2,...,n.

- Note that the mean & variance of a binomially

distributed random variable are given by np and npq
respectively.

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 Binomial Distribution . . .
• Example
1. Suppose that 35% of undergraduates in a university are
females. In a random sample of 6 undergraduates from the
university, what is the probability that 3 of them are
females?
• Let X = number of females (success) out of n = 6 trials with
probability of female on each trial is p = 0.35.
• Pr(X=3) = 6C3(0.35)3(1-0.35)3 = 0.2355
2. A student takes a ten question true-false exam and guesses
on each question. Find the probability of passing if the
minimum passing score is six.

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 Binomial Distribution . . .

2.
Let X = Passing score; n = 10; p = 0.5; 1-p = 0.5
P(x  6) =10C (.5)6(.5)4 +10C (.5)7(.5)3 +10C (.5)8(.5)2
6 7 8
+10C (.5)9(.5)1+10C (.5)10(.5)0 =0.377
9 10

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 The Poisson Distribution
• A distribution that is often useful in describing the
number of events that will occur in a specific period of
time or in a specific area or volume.
• Poisson distribution is recommended to model the
following events.
• The number of industrial accidents per month at a
manufacturing plant.
• The number of noticeable surface defects (scratches,
dents, etc.) found by quality inspectors on a new
automobile.
• Number of goals in football match.
• Number of printing mistakes per page, etc.
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 Properties of a Poisson Random Variable
1. The event can only be either a success or a failure
2. p is so small that q is almost equal to unity (one).
3. The probability that an event occurs in a given unit of time,
area, or volume is the same for all the units.
4. The number of events that occur in one unit of time, area, or
volume is independent of the others.
−m r
P(X = r) = e m ; r = 0,1,2,....
r! X ~ Pois(m)
• where e = 2.71828 and m = mean(X) is the parameter of a
Poisson distribution.
• Note that the mean & variance of a Poisson distributed
random variable is m, i.e. Mean = Variance = m.
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 Poisson Distribution . . .
Example
1. A variable X follows a Poisson distribution with
mean 6. Calculate i) P (x=0), ii) P (x>2)
P(X = 0) = e−660 = e−6
m = 6 i) 0!
P(X  2) =1− P( X  2) =1−{P( X = 0) + P( X =1) + P( X = 2)}
= 1 − {e−660 + e−661 + e−662 }
ii) 0! 1! 2!
=1− {e−6 + 6e−6 +18e−6)} =1− 25e−6

• 2. Throughout 100 pages of a book 100 misprints are

distributed randomly. What is the probability that a page
observed at random will contain at least three misprints?

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 Poisson Distribution . . .
m = 100/100 = 1
P(X  3) =1− P( X  3) =1−{P( X = 0) + P( X =1) + P( X = 2)}
−1 0 −1 1 −1 2
=1 − {e 1 + e 1 + e 1 }
0! 1! 2!
=1− {e−1+ e−1+ 0.5e−1)} =1− 2.5e−1=0.08
• For binomial experiments involving rare events (small
p) and large values of n, it is also possible to
approximate the probability by the Poisson distribution
with mean m = np.
• Example. Suppose that the prevalence of prostate
cancer among males in a country is 0.0001. Suppose we
take a random sample of n = 10, 000. What is the
probability of observing 2 or fewer males suffering from
prostate cancer?
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 Poisson Distribution . . .

Case 1: Using the binomial distribution.

Pr(X<=2) = Pr(X=0)+Pr(X=1)+Pr(X=2)
= 10000C0 0.00010(1-0.0001)10000-0 + … + 10000C2 0.00010(1-0.0001)10000-2

Case 2: Using Poisson distribution (m=(0.0001)(10000) =1)

Pr(X<=2) = Pr(X=0)+Pr(X=1)+Pr(X=2)

−110 e−111 e−112

P(X  2) = e + +
0! 1! 2!
= e−1+ e−1+ 0.5e−1
= 0.9197
Which one is easier to compute?
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 6.4. Common continuous probability
distributions
Normal Distribution

•‘Bell Shaped’
f(x)
• Symmetrical
• Mean, Median and Mode
are Equal σ
Location is determined by the x
mean, μ μ

Spread is determined by the

standard deviation, σ Mean
= Median
The random variable has an
infinite theoretical range: = Mode
−  to + 
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 The Normal Distribution . . .
• It closely approximates the probability distributions of a
number of random variables.
• Computations of probabilities are direct after
standardization.
• The normal probability distribution has led to good
business decisions for a wide range of applications.
• Different normal distributions can be obtained by varying
the parameters μ and σ.

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 The Shape of Normal Distribution
f(x) Changing μ shifts the
distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases or
decreases the spread.
σ
σ1 σ

μ μ1 x

Given the mean μ and variance σ2 we define the normal

distribution using the notation
X ~ N(μ,σ 2 )

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The Normal Probability Density Function
• The formula for the normal probability density
function is
1 − (x −μ) 2 /2σ 2
f(x) = e
 2π
Where e = 2.71828
π = 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
x = any value of the continuous random variable, − < x < 
34
 Finding Normal Probabilities
Probability is measured by the
area under the normal curve

P(X  b) x
a μ b

P(X  b)

a μ b x

P(a  X  b)

a μ b x
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 The Standardized Normal
• Any normal distribution can be transformed into the
standardized normal distribution (Z), with mean 0 and
variance 1
f(Z)

Z ~ N(0 ,1) 1
0 Z

• X units can be transformed into Z units by subtracting

the mean of X from X and dividing by the standard
deviation
X −μ
Z=
σ
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Properties of the Theoretical Normal Distribution
• The curve is bell-shaped.
• The curve is continuous.
• The mean, median and mode are equal and located at
the center of the distribution.
• The curve is symmetrical about the mean, uni-modal
and the total area under the curve is 1.
P(- X μ) =0.5 P(μ  X ) =0.5

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 Finding the Area under the Normal Curve
• Draw the normal curve for the problem in terms of X.
• Translate X-values to Z-values.
• Use the Z Table.
•If the area/region is:
–between 0 and any Z value, then look up the Z value in
the table;

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 Finding the Area . . .
– between two Z values on the same side, then look up both Z
values from the table and subtract the smaller area from the
larger;
– between two Z values on opposite sides of the mean, then
look up both Z values and add the areas;
– in any tail, then look up the Z value to get the area and
subtract the area from 0.5000;

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 Finding the Area . . .
• less than any Z value to the right of the mean, then look up
the Z value from the table to get the area and add 0.5000 to
the area;

• greater than any Z value to the left of the mean, then look
up the Z value and add 0.5000 to the area;

• in any two tails, then look up the Z values from the table,
subtract the areas from 0.5000 and add the answers.

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 Example
1. Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard
deviation 5.0. Find P(X < 8.6)

Z = X−  = 8.6 − 8.0 = 0.12

5.0

μ=8 μ=0
σ = 10 σ=1

8 8.6 X 0 0.12 Z

P(X < 8.6) P(Z < 0.12) = 0.5 + P(0 < Z < 0.12)
41
 Example . . .

P(X < 8.6)

A Portion of Standardized = P(Z < 0.12)
Normal Probability Table
= 0.5000 + 0.0478 = 0.5478
0.00 0.01 0.02
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871
0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255
Z
0.00
0.12
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 Example . . .
2. Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard
deviation 5.0. Find P(X > 8.6)

P(X > 8.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 0.5 - P(0<Z ≤ 0.12)

= 0.5 - 0.0478 = 0.4522

0.0478
0.5000 0.5000 -
0.0478 =
0.4522

Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12 43
 Example . . .
3. Suppose that a random variable Y is normally distributed
with mean 10 and variance 25. Then calculate

(a) P(Y > 15); (b) P(5 < Y < 10)?; (c) P(5 < Y < 15)?

▪ Table

Y ~ N(10, 25)
a) P(Y > 15) =
P[ Y −   15 − 10]= P[Z 1.00] = 0.500− P(0 Z 1.00) = 0.500− 0.3413= 0.1587
5
Due to symmetry
b) P(5 < Y < 10) =
5−10 Y −  10 − 10
P[    ]= P[−1 Z  0] = P[0  Z 1] = 0.3413
5 5

44
 Example . . .
4. If the scores for an IQ test have a mean of 100 and a standard
deviation of 15, find the percentage of IQ scores that will fall
below 112.
Y ~ N(100, 225)
a) P(Y< 112) =
P[ Yσ−μ 112 − 100]= P[Z.800] = 0.500+ P(0 Z .800)= 0.500+ 0.2881= 0.7881
15
 78.81% of them willfall below112

0.80 45