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Second Partial Exam Solved Version B
Second Partial Exam Solved Version B
Second Partial Exam Solved Version B
Rovira i Virgili
December 14, 2022 Version B
Solució
2. Let Ω = {a, b, c, d} and F = {∅, {a}, {b, c}, {d}, {a, b, c}, {b, c, d}, {a, d}, Ω}.
(a) (1 point) Prove that (Ω, F) is a measurable space.
2
(b) (1 point) Let P : F −→ [0; 1] be defined as follows: P({a}) = ,
5
1
P({b, c}) = and P({d}) = α. Determine the value of α so that P is
3
a probability measure over (Ω, F).
(c) (1 point) Calculate P({b, c, d}) and P({a, d}).
Solució
3. (2 points) Suppose that the floor of our house is covered with rectangular
tiles of size a × 3a, as in Figure 1. If we flip a coin of radius 1 on the floor,
there is a probability p that the coin does not intersect any of the lines.
1
What should be the value of a so that p > ?
2
3a
a
Figure 1: Tiled floor and coin of radius 1
Solució
For the coin not to touch any of the lines, its center must fall inside the
inner (dashed) rectangle, which we will call the admissible region (see
Figure 2). Then, the probability that the center of the coin falls within the
admissible region is the area of the admissible region divided by the area
of the outer rectangle, i.e.
(a − 2)(3a − 2) 3a2 − 8a + 4
p= = .
3a2 3a2
So we have to solve the inequality
3a2 − 8a + 4 1
p= >
3a2 2
3a2
3a2 − 8a + 4 >
2
3 2
a − 8a + 4 > 0
2
3a2 − 16a + 8 > 0
1 √ 1
The solutions to the latter inequality are a < (8 − 2 10) or a > (8 +
3 3
√ 1 √
2 10), but the only one that makes sense is a > (8 + 2 10), since
3
1 √
(8 − 2 10) < 1 (the radius of the coin).
3
3a
a
Figure 2: Admissible region for the center of the coin
4. We have two urns, the first one containing 4 black balls and 2 white balls,
while the second box contains 3 white balls and 2 black balls. An experi-
ment consists of selecting a box at random, and then extracting two balls
at once from the chosen box, also at random.
(a) (1 point) Calculate the probability that at least one of the extracted
balls is black.
(b) (2 points) Suppose that we don’t know which box was chosen. If
the two balls turn out to be white, calculate the probability that the
second box was chosen.
Solució
(a) Let Ui denote the event that the urn Ui is chosen (where i ∈ {1, 2}).
Additionally, let B1 be the event that at least one of the balls is black,
and let W denote the event that both balls are white. If we want
to calculate P(B1 ) directly, we have to use the formula for the total
probability, i.e.
11 49
Hence P(B1 ) = 1 − P(W ) = 1 − = .
60 60
(b) We now want to calculate P(U2 |W ). Since we have already calcu-
lated P(W ) in the previous problem, we just have to apply Bayes’
rule:
3
P(W |U2 ) P(U2 ) 9
P(U2 |W ) = = 20
11 = .
P(W ) 60
11
SOME USEFUL TABLES AND FORMULAS
X X
Total probability: P(B) = P(B ∩ Ai ) = P(B|Ai ) P(Ai )
i≥1 i≥1
P(B|Ak ) P(Ak )
Bayes’ formula: P(Ak |B) = P
i≥1 P(B|Ai ) P(Ai )