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How Would A New BRICS Currency Affect The US Dollar - (Updated 2023)
How Would A New BRICS Currency Affect The US Dollar - (Updated 2023)
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The BRICS nations are interested in creating a new currency to compete with the
US dollar. What progress have they made so far, and what would happen to the
American currency if they're successful?
The BRICS nations, comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, are
looking to establish a new reserve currency backed by a basket of their respective
currencies.
The potential currency, while still under review and development, would allow these
nations to assert their economic independence while competing with the existing
international financial system. The current system is dominated by the US dollar, which
accounts for about 90 percent of all currency trading and nearly 100 percent of oil trading.
Central to this ongoing situation is the US trade war with China, as well as US sanctions on
China and Russia. Should the BRICS nations establish a new reserve currency, it would likely
significantly impact the US dollar, potentially leading to a decline in demand. In turn, this
would have implications for the US and global economies.
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Let's look at the emerging BRICS currency and its potential implications for investors.
What progress has been made so far? During the 14th BRICS Summit, held in mid-2022,
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the BRICS countries plan to issue a "new global
reserve currency," and are ready to work openly with all fair partners.
More recently, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expressed his support for a
BRICS currency, commenting, “Why can’t an institution like the BRICS bank have a currency
to finance trade relations between Brazil and China, between Brazil and all the other BRICS
countries? Who decided that the dollar was the (trade) currency after the end of gold
parity?”
The reaction from non-BRICS countries has been a mixed bag. Some nations, like Turkey,
Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are considering joining the BRICS, and Saudi Arabia has been
purchasing Russian oil at record levels. As recently as July, South Africa's BRICS
ambassador, Anil Sooklal, said as many as 40 countries have expressed interest in a BRICS
currency.
However, some experts believe that a BRICS currency is a flawed idea, as it would unite
countries with very different economies. There are also concerns that non-Chinese
members might increase their dependence on China's yuan.
Mitigate risks associated with global volatility due to unilateral measures and
g g y
the diminution of dollar dependence.
trade, 90 percent of currency exchanges, nearly 100 percent of oil trades and just under 60
percent of all foreign currency reserves held by central banks. And due to its status as the
most widely used currency for conversion and its use as a benchmark in the forex market,
almost all central banks worldwide hold dollars.
Although the dollar's reserve currency share has decreased as the euro and yuan have
gained popularity, the dollar is still the most widely used reserve currency, followed by the
euro, the yen, the pound and the yuan.
The potential impact of a new BRICS currency on the US dollar remains uncertain, with
experts debating its potential to challenge the dollar's dominance. However, if a new BRICS
currency was to stabilize against the dollar, it could weaken the power of US sanctions,
leading to a further decline in the dollar's value. It could also cause an economic crisis
affecting American households. Aside from that, this new currency could accelerate the
trend toward de-dollarization. Nations worldwide are seeking alternatives to the US dollar,
with examples being China and Russia trading in their own currencies, and countries like
India, Kenya and Malaysia advocating for de-dollarization or signing agreements with other
nations to trade in local currencies or alternative benchmarks.
While it is unclear whether a new BRICS currency would inspire the creation of other US
dollar alternatives, the possibility of challenging the dollar's dominance as a reserve
currency remains. And as countries continue to diversify their reserve holdings, the US
dollar could face increasing competition from emerging currencies, potentially altering the
balance of power in global markets.
Ultimately, the impact of a new BRICS currency on the US dollar will depend on its
adoption, its perceived stability and the extent to which it can offer a viable alternative to
the dollar's longstanding hegemony.
and affect market volatility requiring investors to adapt their strategies accordingly
and affect market volatility, requiring investors to adapt their strategies accordingly.
In terms of investment vehicles, investors could consider ETFs such as the iShares MSCI BIC
ETF (ARCA:BKF) or the Global X MSCI China Financials ETF (ARCA:CHIX). They could also
invest in mutual funds such as the T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Equity Fund, or in
individual companies within the BRICS countries.
Simply put, preparing for a new BRICS currency or potential de-dollarization requires
careful research and due diligence by investors. Diversifying currency exposure, investing in
commodities, equity markets or alternative investments are possible options to consider
while being mindful of the associated risks.
Investor takeaway
While it is not certain whether the creation of a BRICS reserve currency will come to pass,
its emergence would pose significant implications for the global economy and potentially
challenge the US dollar's dominance as the primary reserve currency. This development
would present unique investment opportunities, while introducing risks to existing
investments as the shifting landscape alters monetary policy and exacerbates geopolitical
tensions.
For those reasons, investors should closely monitor the progress of a possible BRICS
currency. And, if the bloc does eventually create one, it will be important watch the
currency's impact on BRICS member economies and the broader global market. Staying
vigilant will help investors to capitalize on growth prospects and hedge against potential
risks.
That said, speaking at this year's Rule Symposium, well-known author Jim Rickards gave
a detailed talk on how a gold-backed BRICS currency could work. He said the value of
the BRICS currency's units are likely to be specified in gold by weight. Importantly
though, he doesn't see this as a new gold standard, or the end of the US dollar or the
euro. He specified that the BRICS currency will essentially "hitch a free ride on the
existing dollar/gold market" — in other words, if for example a BRICS currency unit is
worth one ounce of gold, and the gold price goes to US$3,000, the BRICS currency unit
would be worth US$3,000, while the dollar would lose value as measured by the weight
of gold.
Russia controls 2,376.52 metric tons (MT) of the yellow metal, making it the fifth largest
for central bank gold reserves. China follows in the sixth spot with 2,068.36 MT of gold,
and India places ninth with 794.62 MT. Brazil and South Africa's central bank gold
holdings are much smaller, coming in at 129.65 MT and 125.38 MT, respectively.