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Cairo University

Faculty of Economics and Political Science


English Section
Economics Department
Spring 2023

Agricultural FDI in Sub-Sahara-Africa: Is it the missing puzzle for food


security?

Under the supervision of:


Dr. Israa El-Husseiny
T.A: Amal El-Masry

Group Members:
1. Name:
Code:
2. Name: Haidy hassan kamel sheha
Code: 52000774
3. Name: Nour Ahmed Gad Ahmed
Code: 5200724
E-Mail: Nour.Gad2020@feps.edu.eg
4. Name: Yosr hussien El bakri mohamed
Code: 5200822
5. Name:
Code:

Title:

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Agricultural FDI in SSA countries: Is it the missing puzzle for food security?

Introduction:
One of the most important targets in most of the world’s nations is achieving food
security by 2030. Food security is listed in two of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by
the United Nations. This much concern given to food security hasn’t started recently, it started in
the mid-1970s when food security became a concern in the discussions of international food
problems and global food crises. Until 1996 when food security was defined by the world food
summit as “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe
and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy
life”. With all these concerns and efforts made to solve the problem, developing countries are
still facing hunger, undernourishment, drought, surging food prices, and inequity. On the top of
this list of problems stand the Sub-Saharan African countries with the highest rate of
undernutrition in the world; one in five people there face hunger. Food insecurity in SSA is
estimated to reach 140 million people in Africa face acute food insecurity, according to the 2022
Global Report on Food Crises 2022 Mid-Year Update. The developed countries in the world are
putting their efforts and studies to solve such a problem, which is why foreign direct investment
(FDI) in agriculture has grown in broadness and dimension to set an end to this problem.
Meidayati (2017) stated that FDI is widely seen as a tool to increase economic development and
might have a spillover effect in the host country.
Our study is aiming to analyze this positive relationship between agricultural FDI and
food security in SSA to conclude whether Agricultural FDI promotes food security in SSA
countries or not, yet our study takes a step further by figuring out the positive relationship
through two routes, the direct positive impact and the indirect positive impact. Our study shall
begin by explaining the main indicators of food security especially the composite food security
indicators and how this paper shall make use of them within our analysis due to their ability to
capture multiple variables of food security within one single indicator. Furthermore, the paper
shall proceed to the testing the positive relationship between our dependent variable which is
food security, and the independent variable which is agricultural FDI in SSA. The tests shall rely
on panel data from (50) Sub-Saharan African countries from the years (2005-2019). This
analysis will take its first step through the analysis of the direct positive relation relying on a
specific effect model. Moreover, the analysis shall go further to test the indirect positive
relationship through agricultural productivity which aroused the suspects about being an
intermediate variable between food security and agricultural FDI. The indirect relation shall rely
on 2SLS/OLS model. Finally, the study shall proceed with the results and the conclusion toward
the two routes of the positive relationship whether the hypotheses about them are significant or
not.
The proposal will proceed in sections as follows. Section 1 is dedicated to the
introduction and the background of our topic. Section 2 of the proposal concerns the
significance, contribution, and objectives of our research. Section 3 of the proposal includes the
research problem and questions. Section 4 proceeds with the research hypothesis and the
literature review on which the hypothesis is based. Section 5 includes the methodology that shall
be utilized. Finally, section 6 includes the research outline.

Significance / Contribution of the study:

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An important source of funding for developing nations seeking to boost food production
and agricultural output is foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper shall focus on studying the
impact of the FDI in agriculture on food security in SSA countries from the period (2005-2019).
The significance of this study derives from the growing concern over how investments in Sub-
Saharan Africa's vast agricultural potential will affect the region's food security problem. By
carefully examining two relationships between agricultural FDI and food security, this research
aims to assess the relationship in sub-Saharan Africa. while making use of a food security
composite indicator as our dependent variable to be a representative of the different indicators of
food security in SSA. The direct relationship between FDI in the agricultural sector and food
security in SSA countries attempts to give a general perception of this relationship. Also,
investigate the indirect impact of FDI in agriculture on food security through agricultural
productivity. Concerning the SSA, previous studies did not reveal these correlations in such an
exhaustive way.

Research objectives:
The current study aims to investigate if FDI in agriculture promotes food security in Sub-
Saharan countries (SSA) or not. This shall be achieved through the following;
First examining the different indicators of food security in SSA specifically by including them in
one food security composite indicator based on the FAO definition of food security.
Second, through the empirical analysis, this paper will investigate the direct effects among the
dependent and the independent variables
Lastly, the paper shall examine the indirect effects by including an intermediate which is
agricultural productivity among them to be able to reach an outcome regarding the presence of
an indirect relation.

Research Question:
Does agricultural FDI promote food security in Sub-Saharan African countries? (2005-2019)

Sub questions:
1. What are the indicators of Food security in SSA?
2. Is there a direct relationship between agricultural FDI and Food security in SSA?
3. Does (agricultural productivity) intermediate the relation between agricultural FDI and
Food security in SSA?

Hypothesis:
Numerous studies have focused on the link between agricultural FDI and food security,
but due to discrepancies in the results of these studies, the relationship is still up for debate. This
paper focuses on the idea that the impact of FDIs Agricultural Investment on Food Security
specifically in Sub-Saharan African countries relying on the regression model previously
postulated in different regions of countries that have previously tested these two hypotheses.
H0: Agricultural FDI has a direct positive impact on food security in SSA countries
H1: Agriculture FDI has an indirect positive impact on food security through agricultural TFP in
SSA countries

Literature review:

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Agricultural FDI and its role in promoting food security is a topic that has been targeted
from multiple perspectives in literature. 1980 was the beginning for researchers in examining the
link between FDI and food security. Pre-1980, Food security was thought of as a component of
social welfare. Malthus and Appleman(1976) started the theorizing of food security by initiating
the Malthusian theory involving ideas regarding shortages in food availability and poverty in the
world. Armartya(1981) initiated the empirical analysis regarding food security by introducing the
notion of entitlements. Post these initiatives food security became part of both theoretical and
empirical analyses. On one hand, the literature reviewed theoretically was found to be classified
in general under two main theories which are the modernization theory and the dependency
theory. The supporters of the modernization theory found them to be more on the side of
claiming that there is a positive relationship between FDI and food security. While the supporters
of the dependency theory were more on the negative side of the claims assuming the existence of
a negative relationship instead. On the other hand, the literature reviewed empirically was found
to generally reach two main results, the positive results and the negative results out of the
analysis between Agricultural FDI and food security.

Theoretical framework:
Agricultural FDI and food security have been examined by multiple studies. A group of
theories postulated a positive relation between these two variables, while other theories argued
the existence of a negative relation. Valenzuela &Valenzuela (1978) set one of the first bricks in
the road of the modernization and dependency theory. The studies that examined the positive
side of the relationship between agricultural FDI and food security might have aroused based on
the modernization theory. One of the supporters of this theory is (Jenkins and Scanlan,2001) who
claimed that there are internal and external factors of economic development. Internal resources
arise through domestic investment, economic development, and educational advancement, which
lead to industrialization and cultural modernization, and social welfare. Regarding the external
sources, a study made by (Kumar & Pradhan, 2005) claimed that FDI which brings technology,
organizational capacity, managerial skills, and marketing expertise, is a source of external
resources to a country. Furthermore, when compared to domestic investments in the host
country, FDI can be anticipated to contribute to growth (more than proportionately)

Previewing the studies that claimed a positive relationship between agricultural FDI and
food security, (Chaudhuri and Banerjee,2010 and Rakotoariso,2011) claimed in general how FDI
in agriculture improves national welfare and also decreases the problem of unemployment,
which can finally contribute to the countries’ food security level. Furthermore, discussed Africa's
agricultural and food trade deficits and how agricultural FDI leads to increases in factor returns
and employment and would uphold households’ real income to set off the loss from the potential
increase in food prices. Additionally, some studies covered the positive indirect effect of
agricultural FDI on food security through agricultural productivity. Ben Slimane et al. (2015,
2016) claimed that in developing countries the FDI in the agriculture sector significantly
supports food security through agricultural production. Moreover, these studies examined how
FDI provides a transfer of technology and knowledge that is useful for higher productivity of
farmers and domestic production, improving quality, and thereby increasing food supply. Some
studies mainly focused on the idea of agricultural productivity (Hongxing et al.,2020 and
Santangelo,2018) claimed in general that the entry of foreign capital increases the supply of
funds, thus promoting the formation of capital in the domestic country for purchasing

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agricultural product inputs, increasing agricultural productivity, and tangentially increasing food
security.
However, the studies that examined the negative side of the relationship between
agricultural FDI and food security might have aroused based on the dependency theory. The
supporters of the dependency theory stated that foreign capital inflows lead to negative effects
such as increased income disparity and decreased food security. Adams (2009) asserted that
inadequate utilization of productive forces is caused by foreign investments contributing to
monopolies' domination. Moreover, the studies that examined this negative relation (London and
Smith, 1988; London and Williams, 1990) studies that examined the impact of FDI on food
consumption concluded a direct and negative relationship. These studies argued that FDI is
detrimental to the food supply and affects it negatively. Firebaugh (1994,1996) who claimed the
misinterpretation of the negative sign on FDI, their studies argue that foreign investment does
not decrease food supply in a manner of a negative relation, but rather that it is not as beneficial
as domestic investment. On the contradictory are (Jenkins and Scanlan, 2001) another study
argued about the existence of no significant impact on foreign capital penetration and food
consumption in developing countries.

Empirical framework
Agricultural FDI and food security have been investigated using much empirical
evidence and also took different routes in analyzing the relationships. Most of the empirical
findings regarding the relation between agricultural FDI and food security tested the relation
among the variables but based on specific approaches such as including the role of the
investments of the transitional companies, others focused specifically on the direction of the
relationship between agricultural FDI and Agricultural Productivity in specific and others even
focused to test the relation under certain sectors in the economy. Meanwhile, limited studies
focused specifically on the direction of the relationship between agricultural FDI and food
security on a more general basis. That is why this paper contributes to testing the direct and
indirect relationship between FDI and food security specifically in a more general manner
regarding the sample of countries that shall be used in the analyses of this paper. The empirical
results are generally under two main classifications, positive results, and negative results in their
findings.

The studies that analyzed the positive relation conducted similar results with different
perspectives. On one hand regarding the positive studies (Yao et al.,2020) examined the
relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) in the agriculture sector and food security
in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), their study was conducted between 2006 and 2015 using panel
data from Belt and Road countries. Furthermore, they applied the correlation analysis, specific
effect model, and two-stage least square (2SLS) method that will be covered in the methodology
later on. The findings demonstrated that there are notable differences in the direction of the
association between food security and FDI in the agricultural sector for the chosen countries. But
generally, agricultural FDI has a positive direct and indirect impact on food security; this impact
is particularly noticeable when a country consistently attracts agricultural FDI.
Another study that focused on the role of investment by transnational companies that enhance
agricultural total production in solving the problem of food insecurity, (Gerlach and Liu, 2010)
conducted several case studies that illustrated that FDI has a positive impact on the growth of
agricultural production in developing nations. First, one multinational corporation's investment

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in Ghana increased the nation's overall palm oil production. Companies like Tilda (U) Ltd
contributed to Uganda's rice output increase, which has nearly doubled in the last ten years with
the introduction of a new type of rice called NERICA.
However, regarding the positive studies, some studies seemed to tackle the same relation
but from a different perspective which is the agricultural productivity effect on Agricultural FDI
and Food Security. From previewing the literature, some studies focused on the effect of
technology on agricultural productivity. The studies made by (Hongxing et al., 2020 and
Santangelo, 2018) mentioned above in the theoretical framework discussed the significance of
FDI in transferring technology and knowledge that promotes food security. Furthermore, the
studies also examined the positive relationship between agriculture FDI and food security by
conducting several surveys in Morocco, Ghana, Egypt, Uganda, and Tanzania. Researchers
found that FDI contributed significantly to productivity growth in the agricultural sector, with the
contribution of this knowledge and technology transfer, farmers can fully utilize land in a more
efficient way than before

On the contradictory, negative results appeared from a group of studies regarding the
relationship between Agricultural FDI and food security in general, these studies conducted the
existence of a negative relationship between the two variables. Some of these studies
(Wimberley, 1991; Wimberley and Bello, 1992) investigated the effect of foreign investment
stocks owned by transnational corporations on food consumption in 60 developing nations
between 1967 and 1985. It has been found that nations with lower levels of transnational
corporation penetration have larger per capita daily calorie and protein gains than those with
higher levels of transnational corporation penetration. This indicates that FDI has a detrimental
effect on food security. The second one investigated, in a sample of 59 developing nations, the
relationship between FDI, export, economic growth, and food consumption. The findings of the
study showed that FDI inflows and primary export dependency have a detrimental impact on
food consumption, but economic growth enhances food consumption.
Furthermore, (Mihalache O'Keef and Li, 2011) dug deeper into the work of
(Wimberley,1991; Wimberley and Bello,1992) by studying the relationship between sectoral FDI
and food security specifically, the studying three types of FDI: primary sector FDI,
manufacturing FDI, and service sector FDI, their analysis is carried out by modernization and
dependency theories. They analyzed data from 56 developing countries between 1981 and 2001.
They concluded that primary FDI has a detrimental effect on food security. The impacts are
explained by the rise in unemployment, adjustments in how agricultural land is used, and adverse
environmental and demographic externalities. While, FDI in the secondary sector enhances food
security by increasing employment and wages, and spreading technology and knowledge.
Finally, FDI in the service sector has an ambiguous impact on food security.
An analysis made for Ghana, (Djokoto, 2012) used the ARDL method to examine the
relationship between agricultural FDI and food security. He analyzed hunger by daily
consumption of energy and nutrition by daily protein consumption and. he noticed a negative
short- and long-term relationship between the agricultural FDI inflow and the food security
indicator.

To wrap up, the literature has proved the FDI-food security relationship is inconclusive,
whereas the open question on whether and to what extent FDI is responsible for food security or
food insecurity still lies. Existing literatures have shown contradicting results with some

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supporting modernization hypothesis and others the dependency hypothesis: those who support
the positive relation (modernization theory) with their different perspectives (Yao et al.,2020;
Gerlach and Liu, 2010; Hongxing et al., 2020 and Santangelo, 2018) concluding the positive
impact of FDI for technology transfer and raising social welfare. others claim FDI is the reason
behind higher employment and higher income that finally lead to food security. Furthermore,
FDI is the reason behind higher employment and higher income that finally lead to food security.
The other group of supporters of the negative relation that is based on (dependency theory) with
it’s different perspectives (Wimberley,1991; Wimberley and Bello,1992; Mihalache O'Keef and
Li, 2011) conducted generally that FDI can contribute to monopolies' domination leading to food
insecurity. The previous studies provided empirical evidence that reached different results
ranging from positive as, to negative or insignificant. Complementing what others have found,
this study intends to provide more empirical evidence on the relationship and making clear
comparisons between both direct and indirect effects in sub-Saharan countries

Methodology
This paper shall mainly focus on testing if the FDI in the agricultural sector in SSA
countries promotes food security or not. Quantitative analysis will be used since it is the most
appropriate method to make use of the available data to reach an outcome on whether there is a
direct and indirect positive impact of the FDI in agriculture on Food Security in SAA or not. The
analyses shall rely on panel data analysis from (50) SSA countries within the time frame of
(2005-2019) taking into consideration that there might be years of limited data sources. The
postulated data sources are based on secondary data which are mostly from the World
Development Indicators database of the World Bank, the United Nations Conference on Trade
and Development (UNCTAD), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT).
According to the previous studies in modeling these 2 relations, the analyses shall rely on a
model that was previously used by (Yao et al.,2020) who concluded a study of the same relation
but in another country region which was Belt and Road countries , specifically focusing on their
first and fourth hypothesis of examining the direct and indirect relation respectively among FDI
in agriculture and food security and the reason behind these two hypotheses and these models
choice is the limitation of researches made about the SSA countries testing the impact of FDI in
agriculture on Food security through a direct route and an indirect route while making use of a
composite indicator of food security. Their study focused on 4 aspects of the relationship
between FDI in agriculture and food security. This paper specifically focuses on their first
hypothesis regarding the direct relationship between agricultural FDI and food security and their
fourth hypothesis regarding the indirect relationship between agricultural FDI and food security
through the agricultural productivity which aroused from the macroeconomic level. Brummer
(2006) revealed that increasing food security cannot be separated from an increase in agricultural
total factor productivity, with an increase in agricultural efficiency being the main driver of TFP
growth.

First, they used correlation analysis, individually. This shall be done to initially measure
the strength of the relationship between the food security indicator (FSI) and agricultural FDI in
the study sample countries
Secondly, to reach the model representing the direct relation. They used a specific-effect
model which can be fixed or random applying the Hausman test where the null hypothesis is that

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the preferred model is random effects and the alternative is the fixed effect. Based on the data set
of different samples of countries, a decision would be made on which model to use.

(The direct relation) regression equation:


lnFSIi,t = β0 +β1L.lnFDI_Agri,t + β2L.lnFDI_M&Si,t +β3L.lnFDI_Agr/AgriValueAddi,t +
β4 lnGDPPCi,t +β5 lnFood production,t + β6 lnFood Importsi,t + f ei + εi,t

Third, their logic of the indirect relation aroused from the correlation analysis results that
showed that the direction of the relationship between FDI_Agr and FSI is largely related to the
direction of the relationship between FDI_Agr and TFP, which indicates the possibility of TFP
being an intermediate variable in the relationship between FDI and FSI. That is why they made
their study include the indirect relationship between FDI_Agr and FSI, which can be presented
by either 2SLS or OLS model. To decide which model to use, an endogeneity test (Durbin–Wu–
Hausman (DWH) test must be running, and based on the p-value and the consistency, the
suitable model would be chosen according to our sample of countries.

(The indirect relation): regression equation:


InFSIi,t = β0 + β1 lnTFP_hati,t + β2 L. lnFDI_M&Si,t + β3 lnAgri_Value%i,t +β4 lnFood
productioni,t + β5 lnFood Importsi,t + f ei + εi,t

Fourth, they used the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to check the robustness
Lastly, the suitable statistical software to be used with panel data can be STATA since it allows
you to use the majority of second-generation panel approaches.

i, t, βk, fei, εi,t refer to the countries, years, the estimated coefficients, the country fixed effects,
and the error term, respectively.

The Dependent variable


FSIit: The logarithm of the food security composite indicator is our dependent variable since it
simultaneously captures each dimension in a single indicator (Aliber, 2009). This indicator
consists of four variables for food security which can represent food security well, according to
the FAO definition. It was attained using (PCA)Principal component analysis.
The first and second indicators are: Access to improved sanitation facilities and Access to
improved water resources describe the first basic base of food security under the criteria of
utilization. (FAOSTAT)
Third indicator: Dietary energy supply adequacy(FAOSTAT)
Fourth indicator: Per capita food production variability. This variable is under the criteria of
vulnerability/stability importance of this variable is that improved sanitation reduces the
pollution caused by human waste (FAOSTAT)

The Independent Variables (Control variables):


(L.lnFDI_Agri,t) : the first lag of logarithm of agricultural FDI measuring the inflows to the
Agriculture Sector By FDI (FAOSTAT )

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(L. lnFDI_M&Si, t) : the first lag of logarithm of FDI in the manufacturing and services sectors
indicates FDI Manufacturing and Services Sector FDI in services influences manufacturing
efficiencies in host countries (FAOSTAT, World Bank)
(L. lnFDI_Agr/ AgriValueAddi, t): the first lag of logarithm of FDI_Agr to agricultural value
added FDI which is calculated by (FDI_Agr/ AgriValueAdd ) and this variable only exists on the
model of the direct relation to indicate the proportional importance of agricultural FDI in the
country’s agricultural sec sector(Author’s calculation)

(ln GDPPCi, t): The logarithm of GDP per capita is a measurement of the standard of living
that affect the resident’s affordability of goods (World Bank)

(lnFood production i,t) : The logarithm of food production, this variable measures how can
food security increase by increases in food production. (World Development Indicators)

(lnFood Importsi,t) : The logarithm of food. Which measures the prices of imports in the host
countries and how can it affect food security. (World Development Indicators)

(lnTFP_hati,t): The logarithm of total Factor Productivity measuring the agricultural


productivity. It is an intermediate variable in the indirect relation model only and was estimated
from a separate linear equation model. (Author calculation). (Hongxing et al., 2020)

(lnAgri_Value%i,t): the logarithm of agricultural value added as a percentage (% of GDP) and


this variable only exist in the model of the indirect relation (World Bank)

Research Outline

1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
 Theoretical Literature Review
 Empirical Literature Review
3. Data and Methodology
4. Empirical Results and Discussion
 The results of the direct relationship
 The results of the indirect relationship
5. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations.

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