Dear Fresno community,

After analyzing the annual average temperature in comparison to the annual harvest (in this

study, corn will be used as an example) of our city, we found shocking correlations between the

two. The raw data will be presented in table 1 below. The temperature data comes from

Meteoblue, a professional meteorology study database. The harvest data comes from the USDA

(United States Department of Agriculture).

These data, although exclusive to the city of Fresno, demonstrates how big of an impact climate

change and global warming has on crop harvest and production.

The method used will be the comparative analysis of the temperature and harvest.

Year Total Temperature

Harvest of (C°)

Corn

(Acres)

1999 101,000 17.1 Year Total Temperature

Harvest of (C°)

Corn (Acres)

2000 91,000 17.7 2010 98,000 17.6

2001 75,000 18.2 2011 77,200 17.1

2002 75,100 17.8 2012 95,400 18.6

 2003 77,200 18.3 2013 92,800 18.9

2004 67,000 18.1 2014 60,000 20.1

2005 72,800 18.1 2015 19,100 19.6

2006 73,000 17.9 2016 56,100 19.7

2007 110,000 18.6 2017 40,000 19.4

2008 121,000 18 2018 36,300 19.5

2009 109,500 18.2 2019 34,100 18.8

The data is represented through figure 1 and figure 2.

Fig. 1 Average Temperature (C°) of Fresno Against Time (Year)

20.5
Average Temperature (C°)

20
19.5
19
18.5
18
17.5
17
16.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Time (Year)

In Fig.1, we can see that as the years proceed, the average temperature is rising in a steady pace,

and even erupted to over 20°C at 2014. The graph simply showcases how the average

temperature of Fresno has increased by about 2 degrees in only a span of about 2 decades.
 Fig. 2 Total Harvest of Corn (Acres) of Fresno Against Time
(Year)
140,000
Total Harvest of Corn (Acres)

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Time (Year)

In Fig.2, we can see that as the years proceed, the crop harvest of corn (in acres) in Fresno is

experiencing a decreasing trend throughout the past 2 decades, except for the great harvest that

occurred in 2007.

Fig.1 and Fig.2 does not efficiently demonstrate how one affects the other. Therefore, we can

turn to Fig.3.

Fig.3 Total Annual Harvest of Corn (Acres) against Temperature

(C°)
140000
Total Annual Harvest of Corn

120000
100000
80000
60000
(Acres)

40000
20000
0
16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5 20 20.5
Temperature (C°)
Coefficient correlation:

17.1+17.7+ ˙˙˙ +19.5+18.8

x̄ = = 18.4429
21

101000+91000+ ˙˙˙ +36300+34100

ȳ= = 75314.2857
21

Σ(x - x̄)2 = (17.1-18.44)2+(17.7-18.44)2+ ˙˙˙ +(19.5-18.44)2+(18.8-18.44)2 = 14.2314

Σ(y - ȳ)2 = (101000-75314.29)2+(91000-75314.29)2+ ˙˙˙ +(36300-75314.29)2+(34100-

75314.29)2 = 14908225710

Σ(x - x̄)(y - ȳ) = (17.1-18.44)*(101000-75314.29)+(17.7-18.44)*(91000-75314.29)+ ˙˙˙ +(19.5-

18.44)*(36300-75314.29)+(18.8-18.44)*(34100-75314.29) = -279162.8571

Σ(x - x̄)(y - ȳ)
SXY =
n-1

-279162.8571
SXY = = -13958.1429
21 - 1

Σ(xi - x̄)(yi - ȳ)
r=
√(Σ( xi - x̄)2Σ(yi - ȳ)2 )

-279162.8571
r= = -0.6061
√(14.2314*14908225710)
The two variables (x & y, respectively temperature & harvest )show a strong negative

correlation. This correlation means that when the temperature is increased, the harvest will more

likely decrease; and that when the temperature is decreased, the harvest will more likely increase.

Evaluation

Although temperature is not the only influence on harvest (labor, droughts, water shortage, etc.

could all be variables which affects harvest), it however is an indicator of global warming and

climate change, which is the origin of all the other natural disasters which may affect harvest.

Through portraying the change in the annual average temperature, one is able to also evaluate the

impact of global warming through the lens of temperature, seeing the relationship between

temperature and total harvests.

Variables such as precipitation, air moisture, water levels, and the such could all be added to this

study and used as a comparative variable to total harvests.

Conclusion

Seeing how impactful the slight change in temperature, which indicates the worsening of global

warming, could be, one is able to reevaluate how humans are reshaping the environment, in the

decline of harvests, plant growth, and the such.

This study serves not only as a warning to the potential loss of harvests for humankind, but also

serves as a fragment study to the greater scope of how global warming affects the environment as

a whole.

It takes one to issue a thousand warnings, but it takes thousands to achieve one goal.
 Works Cited

“Climate Change Fresno.” Meteoblue, https://www.meteoblue.com/en/climate-

change/fresno_united-states_5350937. Accessed 9 Nov. 2022.

USDA - National Agricultural Statistics Service - California.

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/index.php. Accessed 9 Nov. 2022.