Sustaining the Future: Exploring Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science and

Livingry

Johnathon S. Whitacre

Honors Research Track, Shoreline Community College

HON250: Research Track

Mentor: Lauren Bryant

March 8th

Table of Contents:
1. Cover Page
2. Table of Contents
3. Abstract
4. What is Futures Studies
A. Definition of Futures Studies
5. Who is Buckminster Fuller
A. What is Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science
B. What is Livingry
C. What is the World Game and the Dymaxion Map
6. What is Nuclear technology
A. Weaponry
B. Power generation
7. What is Sustainability
A. Definition
8. Origins of Futures Studies
A. From Ancient times to the pre-industrial revolution
B. From the Industrial Revolution to the modern day
9. Sustainable Alternatives
A. Space generated power beamed back to earth
B. Hydro-wind-solar combination
 C. Arcologies and geodesic domes
10. Future Areas for Further Future Studies
11. Sources

Abstract:
Sustaining the Future: Exploring Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science and Livingry

The state of the world is in dire condition and this research offers a multifaceted approach to a
solution.Through a historical look at the field of Futures Studies, the World’s Fairs, the Hanford
Site, and solar power, we will gain insights on how to implement R. Buckminster Fuller’s
framework of Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science. This literature review presents an
analysis of Fuller’s essay “Humanity's Critical Path: From Weaponry to Livingry”(1983) and the
implications for the future. Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science, as conceptualized by
R. Buckminster Fuller is an approach that begins with the entirety of a system, anticipates future
needs, and applies accumulated knowledge to create an omnicooperative society. Examining
two of Fuller’s artifacts, the World Game and Dymaxion Map, we gain insight on how to give
everyone access to a global accounting system of resources available to make informed
decisions about the future. From this research we learn how to leverage Design Science to
change our projected future, through an exploration of the Hanford Site we gain an
understanding of what dangers nuclear technology poses, while a detailed overview of the
World’s Fairs and those involved in strategic national planning projects informs how we arrived
here. Observing the development of solar energy technologies as Fuller implored, we should
conserve our reserves of petroleum and fissionable materials as we transition to a more
participatory, sustainable, and renewable future. The research unveils the significance of
Fuller's ideas and by addressing nuclear risks, agricultural practices, and advocating
Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science, we make way for a informed societal evolution.
The findings emphasize the practical application of Fuller's concepts giving us a roadmap for a
brighter future.

What is Futures Studies:

Futures studies is a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary field that examines the

possible trajectories of future societal, technological, and environmental developments.
It acknowledges that the future cannot be predicted but can be shaped through human
agency and understanding. Rooted in sociology, policy sciences, and various
methodological approaches such as scenario planning and technological forecasting,
futures studies explores diverse perspectives and methodologies to envision and
analyze alternative futures. It emphasizes imagination, creativity, and a systemic
approach to conceptualize and explore complex cause-and-effect relationships. Futures
studies aims to provide insights for social and technological innovation, with a focus on
addressing global challenges and promoting sustainable futures. It encompasses a
range of methodologies, including scenario planning, visioning, and forecasting, to
envision and work towards preferred futures while considering the interconnectedness
of individuals, communities, societies, economies, and the environment.

There are those who criticize futurists by saying that they have tendencies to over
promote technology as a way of reaching some sort of utopia. Lewis Mumford was one
such individual who had such a claim saying that there are “those giant minds whose
private dreams all too quickly turned into public nightmares” (Global village). He sought
ways of “puncturing all such futurist fantasies” (global village) and in his most verbose
counter he takes a pointed jab at the “state that the mass of mankind is fast
approaching in actual life, without realizing how pathological it is to be cut off from their
own resources for living and to feel no tie with the outer world unless they are
connected with the Power Complex and constantly receive information, direction,
stimulation, and sedation from a central external source, via radio, discs, and television,
with the minimal opportunity for reciprocal face-to-face contact” (Global village).
Mumford was clear that the belief that technology could solve all our problems would
have long lasting consequences for society at large. There are others who believed that
we have more power to change things with our technologies than we are even aware of
and that it is within our abilities to “create a world in which people the world over can
lead free and abundant and even creative lives ... and that starting now , applying the
power we have is none too soon” (The futurists 1967).

Walter Cronkite put it succinctly in 1967 in a documentary when he said that futurists
“do not pretend to be prophets. They say: the future cannot be predicted . It will be
invented , and it is determinable . People can determine the future if they understand
and then decide on the choices open to them” (The futurists 1967). It is important to
remember that Futures Studies can be characterized “as both as an art and as a
science with a strong emphasis on imagination and creativity in developing different
possible futures” (The story of futures studies). Futures Studies as a field that is value-
related versus traditional sciences which try to be value-neutral (The story of Futures
Studies). One of the main methods used in Futures Studies is scenario planning which
has been employed in many of the decisions being made by both large corporations
and the military today (Futures studies at sf encyclopedia). One of the findings of this
literature review points out how the main focus of Futures Studies is currently oriented
towards continuous growth and less on the impact of this process. Many futurists share
this outlook and are or have been employed in the military and corporate sectors
including Herman Khan who was largely responsible for crafting policies related to the
United States’s nuclear arsenal and strategic defense (Future Studies sf encyclopedia).

Who is Buckminster Fuller:

R. Buckminster Fuller, hailed as “one of the greatest minds of our times,” was renowned
for his comprehensive perspective on the world’s problems and his commitment to
innovative design solutions that do “more with less,” improving human lives. Born in
1895 in Milton, Massachusetts, Fuller’s upbringing in a family inclined toward activism
and public service fostered his early understanding of nature and technology. Expelled
twice from Harvard University, he later served in the U.S. Navy, where he demonstrated
his engineering prowess. Fuller’s Navy days greatly influenced his later work,
showcasing his ability to study problems comprehensively (bfi nonprofit). Following his
Navy service, Fuller embarked on a journey of invention and contemplation. He
patented his first invention in collaboration with his father-in-law in 1926, marking the
beginning of a prolific career in innovation. In 1927, he designed the groundbreaking
Dymaxion House, embodying his philosophy of efficient, mass-produced housing (bfi
nonprofit). This invention led to a series of Dymaxion innovations, including the
Dymaxion Car and Bathroom, showcasing Fuller’s commitment to technological
advancement and resource efficiency.

However, Fuller’s most enduring invention was the geodesic dome, which he patented
in 1954. These domes, based on his synergetic geometry principles, became iconic
structures known for their efficiency and resilience. They found widespread use, from
civilian shelters to military installations, reflecting Fuller’s vision of technology serving
humanity. Fuller’s impact extended beyond inventions. His Dymaxion Map and concept
of “Spaceship Earth” highlighted his commitment to global thinking and comprehensive
problem-solving. He developed the World Game, a simulation tool using the Dymaxion
Map to address global challenges. Fuller’s extensive lecturing and writing career further
disseminated his ideas, earning him numerous awards and honors, including the
Presidential Medal of Freedom in 1983.

Even after his death in 1983, Fuller’s legacy endures, symbolized by the discovery of
the buckminsterfullerene molecule, named in his honor. His life’s work exemplifies a
relentless pursuit of innovation and a visionary approach to addressing humanity’s
challenges through design and technology. One the core beliefs that Fuller had was
“that humanity’s most fundamental survival problems could never be solved by politics”,
which is what led him to develop the framework of Comprehensive Anticipatory Design
Science and Livingry which he contrasted with the political system and its need to keep
feeding the global war machine with more weaponry (Critical path). In 1927 he saw that
politics and the military industrial complex would try in evermore “inherently vain
attempts to solve one-sidedly all humanity’s basic economic and social problems”, but
would even more “wasteful warring” (Critical path).

Fuller was that a more effective method was “technologically reforming the environment
instead of trying politically to reform the people” (Critical path). He frequently pointed to
the fact that society was too focused on making money to care about the environment
and long-term sustainability even though these “are vital to sustaining humans on board
our planet” (Critical path). As an individual like any other he figured out that there “there
was nothing to stop [him] from thinking comprehensively about our total planet Earth, its
total physical resources and most advanced total know-how” (critical path). He wanted
to set out a new critical path or “a first-things-first program” prioritizing essential tasks
(Critical Path). Fuller wanted to show the practical applications of his ideas and was
comprehensive in this approach, even gaining him high praise from Marshall McLuhan
who called him "the Leonardo da Vinci of our time” (Global village). Buckminster Fuller
was sometimes difficult to understand and knowing this he preferred to show rather than
tell people about his ideas oftentimes building models and as if saying “Try it!…See for
yourself!” (Global village). In technology he saw the human mind working to find ways of
doing “more and more with less and less', using Nature's bounty without abusing her”
(Global village).

What is Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science:

Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science, as conceptualized by Buckminster Fuller,

represents a multifaceted approach to design that encompasses several key principles.
Firstly, it emphasizes the importance of taking a comprehensive, whole-system
perspective when addressing design challenges. This entails considering the
interactions between various components of a system and understanding the
consequences of these interactions. Moreover, Design Science advocates for a
proactive approach to design, wherein designers anticipate potential future conditions
and incorporate this foresight into their design process. By identifying and researching
significant trends, designers can gain a deeper understanding of likely outcomes and
formulate designs that are resilient and adaptable. At the heart of Design Science is the
deliberate ordering of components based on fundamental scientific principles. This
involves distilling generalized principles derived from sound science and applying them
to the creation of new configurations aimed at achieving specific goals. By grounding
design decisions in scientific principles, designers can ensure that their creations are
not only effective but also sustainable and ethical.

Furthermore, Design Science encourages the use of visualization technology and

simulation techniques to explore data, evaluate options, and test proposed approaches.
This allows designers to iteratively refine their designs and make informed decisions
based on empirical evidence. Additionally, Design Science has a pedagogical aspect,
as it provides an opportunity for collective learning and creativity. By creating
environments that foster group learning and collaboration, Design Science can amplify
the collective intelligence of participating groups and stimulate innovative solutions to
complex challenges. Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science as emphasized by
Buckminster Fuller involves applied technology and is considered a collective
responsibility (Design as savior). He loathed that “profitability is usually the single,
insistent, essentially political, design criterion.” (design as savior)

The point of CADS is to encourage us to take a long-range look “at the problems we
face and to ask where we are heading , and if we don't like where we're heading ... then
start now to do something about it”. Keeping in mind that “it’s purely a question of
putting that power to work , and putting it to work energetically enough” towards the
challenges we all face (The futurists 1967). It is a call to adopt a forward-thinking
approach, acknowledging the importance of addressing future challenges and taking
proactive measures to alter undesirable trajectories.

Through an integration of various strategies to develop a practical and forward-looking

design science, ensuring continuous improvement while avoiding regression. Solutions
are “designed pull-up of the bottom vs. austere pull-down of the top” (Eight Strategies of
CADS). A key point that became increasingly important to CADS was systems analysis
where the focus on identifying “leverage points” within complex systems where small
changes can yield significant outcomes. The range of “systems analysis served as the
methodological basis for social policy planning and analysis across such disparate
areas as urban decay, poverty, health care, education, and the efficient operation of
municipal services, such as police protection and fire fighting” (Story of futures studies).

And so Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science serves as a great foundational

approach to the growing complexity of our world and the importance of developing a
complementary understanding of both the current and future challenges we are faced
with. Overall, Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science offers a coherent framework
for realizing a combination of ethics, aesthetics, and efficiency performance in all design
undertakings. It represents a holistic approach that seeks to optimize outcomes while
minimizing harm to the environment and ensuring the well-being of humanity as a
whole.

What is Livingry:

“Livingry” can be defined as Buckminster Fuller’s concept of designing and creating

artifacts, technologies, and systems that prioritize enhancing human life and well-being,
as opposed to perpetuating conflict or serving narrow interests. Fuller saw Livingry as
the antithesis of weaponry and believed that shifting focus from military endeavors to
technologies that benefit humanity collectively was essential for sustainable
progress.Fuller viewed Livingry as “Human-circumstance-advantaging technology” and
it encompasses technologies and innovations that improve the human condition and
contribute positively to the environment. This could include advancements in areas such
as renewable energy and sustainable resource management. (Critical path) Fuller
envisioned Livingry as facilitating a standard of living that surpasses anything previously
experienced in history. This standard would be sustainable and based on harnessing
abundant cosmic energy sources like solar power.

Instead of relying solely on political or social reforms, Livingry proposes using

technology to reshape the environment in ways that encourage positive behaviors and
outcomes. Fuller advocated for a fundamental shift in priorities, urging businesses and
industries to redirect their resources and expertise from the production of weapons to
the development of technologies that benefit humanity as a whole. Achieving Livingry
requires collective effort and cooperation on a global scale, transcending narrow
interests and focusing on the common good requiring an “omnicooperative” approach
(Critical path). To explain the Livingry he laid out that it was “in constradistinction to the
weaponry of the human political power structure” (Critical path). He noted that funds for
research and development, particularly in weaponry, are often allocated only during
emergencies when solutions are urgently required and solutions “at any cost” were
needed (Critical path). Observing that the need for urgent solutions, especially in
defense and national security, often drives the allocation of resources towards
weaponry-related projects “notably… in the periods when risks, uncertainties, and crises
amplify and when interrelationships shaping the future of individuals, communities,
societies, economies, regions, and the world are volatile and complex.” (The story of
futures studies)

The drawback to this focus on the production of weaponry often caused “most of the
egregious waste, pollution and environmental insult…because nature is left out of the
design process. Designers and their masters ignorantly assume that nature has no
vote.” Though it “has become obvious, her vote is often NO” (design as savior). So by
shifting our focus from weaponry and the political structure Fuller encourages us to
begin the transition to Livingry and Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science. In
summary, Livingry represents Fuller’s vision for a future where technological
advancements serve to elevate human life and create a more sustainable and equitable
world. It emphasizes the importance of leveraging scientific knowledge and innovation
for the betterment of society, rather than perpetuating cycles of conflict and scarcity.

What is the Dymaxion Map:

The Dymaxion World Map, invented by Buckminster Fuller in 1933, is a revolutionary

cartographic projection system designed to provide a comprehensive and accurate
representation of the Earth’s surface (Critical path). Unlike traditional flat maps, the
Dymaxion map portrays the planet as a single, interconnected island floating in a unified
ocean, without any distortion of the relative size or shape of land masses. This unique
perspective allows viewers to study global phenomena and analyze world problems with
greater clarity and accuracy. By projecting the Earth’s surface onto a polyhedron and
unfolding it into a two-dimensional map, it minimizes distortion, preserving the true
proportions and shapes of continents and oceans (Critical Path). It facilitates analysis
because it accurately represents the spatial relationships between different geographic
features, the Dymaxion map is an invaluable tool for analyzing global problems,
studying resource distribution, and understanding the impacts of human activities on a
planetary scale. Temporal and spatial dimensions: Users can use the Dymaxion World
Map to explore various data sets and phenomena across both temporal (time-based)
and spatial (location-based) dimensions, gaining insights into complex global dynamics
(Critical path).

What is the World Game:

The World Game, initiated by Buckminster Fuller in 1927, is a grand strategy program
aimed at solving global challenges through the application of design science and
technological innovation. The game leverages the insights provided by the Dymaxion
World Map to identify and address pressing social, economic, and environmental issues
facing humanity. The World Game encourages participants to identify global problems
and develop innovative solutions using artifacts and technologies based on scientific
and technological advancements. (Critical path). Fuller emphasized the importance of
design science in addressing complex challenges, advocating for the creation of
practical and efficient solutions that leverage scientific knowledge and technological
development and by utilizing the Dymaxion World Map as a tool for understanding
global dynamics, the World Game promotes a holistic perspective on planetary issues,
encouraging collaboration and cooperation among individuals and nations. The game
fosters the exploration and implementation of emerging technologies to tackle global
problems, emphasizing the potential of scientific innovation to create positive change on
a global scale. Emphasis is placed on understanding the broader implications and side
effects of these developments on global social and economic dynamics. Overall, the
Dymaxion World Map and the World Game represent Fuller’s visionary approach to
addressing humanity’s most pressing challenges, combining accurate cartography with
strategic problem-solving to envision a better future for all.

Nuclear Technologies:

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD): MAD is a nuclear deterrence strategy that emerged
during the Cold War, particularly in the 1960s, as a response to the escalating arms
race between the United States and the Soviet Union. The concept posits that the use
of nuclear weapons by two or more opposing sides would result in the complete
annihilation of all parties involved, rendering any potential aggressor's victory hollow
and ensuring mutual destruction. MAD relies on the principle of deterrence, aiming to
dissuade adversaries from initiating nuclear conflict by making the potential
consequences of such actions unacceptably catastrophic. It underscores the notion that
nuclear war is unwinnable and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a credible
nuclear arsenal to deter potential adversaries. Despite its grim implications, MAD played
a central role in shaping Cold War nuclear strategy and continues to influence
international relations and nuclear policy today. Technology and politics may lead to
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) becoming unavoidable (Air and space forces
magazine). It’s argued that intentionally creating a system where millions of innocent
civilians could be exterminated in a system failure is unacceptable (air & space forces
magazine). The individual who coined the term MAD didn’t live to witness the end of the
Cold War. However, his strong opposition to the concept has been echoed by many
others (air & space forces magazine). When talking about the costs of setting up
strategic defense in the case of Mutually Assured Destruction it was said that “to some
extent… the numbers attached to the… new doctrine were plucked from thin air, not
developed by extensive and rigorous analysis” (air & space forces magazine). In an
address before Congress in 1970, Nixon of all people remarked, “Should a President, in
the event of a nuclear attack, be left with the single option of ordering the mass
destruction of enemy civilians, in the face of the certainty that it would be followed by
the mass slaughter of Americans?”(air & space forces magazine).

Nuclear weapons are highly destructive devices that harness the energy released by
nuclear reactions, typically either fission or fusion reactions, to generate explosive force.
Fission bombs, such as those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II,
release energy by splitting atomic nuclei, while fusion bombs, also known as
thermonuclear or hydrogen bombs, derive their power from the fusion of atomic nuclei.
Nuclear weapons possess unparalleled destructive capabilities, capable of inflicting
catastrophic damage over vast areas and causing mass casualties. The development
and proliferation of nuclear weapons have profoundly influenced global security
dynamics, leading to the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD) and shaping
military strategies, arms control agreements, and nonproliferation efforts. The continued
existence and spread of nuclear weapons present ongoing challenges and risks to
international peace and security, underscoring the importance of nuclear disarmament,
arms control, and efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear technology. In Fuller’s
call to action he reminds of the ever increasing amounts being directed to the military
spent “developing the ability to kill ever-more people, at ever-greater distance, in ever-
shorter time” (Critical path). The early publications of Herman Kahn were some of the
“first applications of scenario planning in Futures Studies, in which alternative
consequences of nuclear conflict were explored (The story of futures studies). Kahn, a
member of the original group at RAND, pioneered scenario planning for the military. His
consulting work and books such as “On Thermonuclear War” (1960) and “Thinking
About the Unthinkable” (1962) played a crucial role in shaping US nuclear strategy
(Futures studies sci-fi encyclopedia).
Nuclear power refers to the generation of electricity through controlled nuclear
reactions, typically in nuclear power plants. These reactions produce heat, which is
used to generate steam, driving turbines that produce electricity. Nuclear power has
been heralded as a source of low-carbon energy with the potential to mitigate climate
change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil fuel-based energy
sources. However, nuclear power also presents significant challenges and risks,
including the generation of radioactive waste, concerns about nuclear proliferation and
terrorism, and the potential for catastrophic accidents. Events such as the Chernobyl
and Fukushima disasters have underscored the risks associated with nuclear power
generation and raised questions about its safety, regulation, and long-term
sustainability. Despite these challenges, nuclear power remains a significant component
of the global energy mix, with proponents advocating for its expansion as part of efforts
to transition to a more sustainable and low-carbon energy future, while critics continue
to raise concerns about its safety, security, and environmental impacts. James Sullivan
envisions a practical approach to generating clean energy on a large scale, possibly
through harnessing the fusion reaction of hydrogen bombs. He also highlights recent
advancements in battery and fuel cell technology, foreseeing a future with clean cities
and highways devoid of automobile exhaust and smokestack emissions. (The futurists
1967)

Sustainability:

Sustainability refers to the capacity to maintain or endure over time, ensuring the
preservation of essential ecological, social, and economic systems for present and
future generations. It encompasses a multifaceted approach that considers the
interconnectedness of environmental, social, and economic factors, aiming to strike a
balance between meeting current needs and safeguarding resources and opportunities
for future generations. Sustainability involves addressing challenges such as resource
depletion, environmental degradation, social inequality, and economic instability through
holistic and systemic approaches that promote resilience, equity, and long-term viability.

The concept of sustainability has gained prominence in response to escalating

environmental crises, population growth, urbanization, and concerns about the finite
nature of natural resources. It emphasizes the importance of responsible stewardship of
the Earth's resources, recognizing the interdependence of human societies and the
natural environment. Sustainability seeks to reconcile human activities with the capacity
of ecosystems to regenerate and support life, promoting practices that minimize
ecological footprint and conserve biodiversity.
Central to sustainability is the notion of sustainable development that meets the needs
of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs (global village). This entails integrating environmental protection, social equity,
and economic prosperity into decision-making processes, fostering inclusive and
participatory approaches that consider the diverse needs and perspectives of
stakeholders. Efforts to advance sustainability encompass various domains, including
urban planning, resource management, renewable energy, conservation, and social
justice. Strategies for achieving sustainability may involve transitioning to renewable
energy sources, promoting circular economies, implementing green infrastructure,
fostering sustainable consumption and production patterns, and investing in education
and capacity-building initiatives. Sustainable development requires collective action at
local, national, and global levels, driven by shared responsibility, innovation, and
collaboration across sectors and disciplines (8 strategies).

Key principles of sustainability include a precautionary principle, which advocates for

proactive measures to prevent irreversible environmental harm, and the principle of
intergenerational equity, which emphasizes the fair distribution of resources and
opportunities between present and future generations (Arcology and Arcosanti).
Sustainability challenges conventional paradigms of growth and development, calling for
transformative change that prioritizes environmental integrity, social well-being, and
economic prosperity within planetary boundaries.

Buckminster Fuller pointed out that the belief that “there’s not enough life support
available on planet Earth for all humanity, then survival only of the fittest seems self-
flatteringly to warrant great selfishness” (Critical path). He believed that “through
foresight and design, it is possible to phase out all further use and abuse of nature’s
cosmic energy savings account: our fossil fuels and atomic energy” which are
exhaustible (Critical path). One of the key aspects of sustainable design is that “waste is
always unprofitable, and is embarrassingly inelegant and stupid. Pollution is usually a
good measure of inefficiency. It’s best stopped at the source, eliminating later, more
expensive cleanup problems.” (design as savior) Lewis Mumford who we looked at
earlier thought that heavy resource extraction and “metal-working as the rape of the
Earth and the first instance of wage-slavery for the hapless human digging…in the
mines” (Global village). Fuller thought that by emulating nature’s designs we could do
“more and more with less and less” while decreasing the negative effects on the
environment.

Many pictures have been put forth about sustainable futures from “greater localism and
lifestyles of voluntary simplicity to images of a future that is still wealthy but less
materialistic, more focused on other aspects of personal achievement and cultural
progress, running on clean sources of energy, recycling resources, and using ultra-
efficient zero-pollution technologies” (Futures studies sci-fi encyclopedia). While there
are “often conflicting, definitions of what sustainability is, or might become, the move
towards the construction a more sustainable society, if it is be achieved at all, will be
founded upon a redefined relationship between the built and natural environments,”
leading to a healthier society in harmony with the environment (Arcology and Arcosanti).

History of Futures Studies leading to CADS:

Ancient Times to the Pre-Industrial Era:

When Homo erectus began the migration out of Africa and brought with them their tools and
curiosity, they set in motion a long history of exploration, technological progress, imaginative
innovation and a foresight to adapt to the ever changing landscapes they found themselves in.
At first the pool of knowledge they had was limited and the methods crude, “from very early
times, societies have attempted to develop methods for improving foresight, using approaches
as varied as visiting oracles, studying the heavens (astrology), casting lots (cleromancy), and
examining animal livers (hepatoscopy). But a serious literature about the future appears as a
mere blip at the end of civilization's 10,000-year record”. Being able to recognize patterns and
learn through ‘trial and error’ allowed us to advance our methods to produce tools, architecture,
and new disciplines that eventually would lead to today.

In Ancient Greece around the 5th Century BCE we see speculative philosophy and a deeper
inquiry into the mechanisms of reality emerge from philosophers like Plato and Aristotle. Plato
explored the metaphysics of prophecy in Phaedrus when he wrote, “they would not have
connected the very word mania with the noblest of arts, that which foretells the future, by calling
it the manic art. No, they gave this name thinking that mania, when it comes by gift of the gods,
is a noble thing”. He was also one the first writers to create the concept for an ideal society or
utopia in “The Republic” where he lays out his thoughts on the way this society would function,
who and how it would be led, its culture and people. By critically analyzing the times he lived in,
he reflected on and extrapolated his ideals into the future hoping to provide a framework that
others could build upon. This text went on to inspire many other utopian writers and thinkers in
the future including Thomas Moore, Isaac Asimov, and H.G. Wells. In the 1st Century BCE - 5th
Century CE we see a rise in civic engineering and planning among the Roman Empire
showcasing early examples of comprehensive design including; including aqueducts, roads,
public baths, and large stone monuments like the Colosseum and the Pantheon.

From the 8th-14th Century we have the Islamic Golden Age. During this time Ibn Khaldun was
born(1332-1406). He was philosopher and historian who wrote a book the “Muqaddimah” or
“Prolegomena” ("Introduction") which later historians used to analyze the growth and decline of
the Ottoman Empire. Science and mathematics flourish during this period and we see
knowledge spread along trade routes. Later on we get the Italian Renaissance (14th - 17th
Century) and a renewal of art, science, and philosophy. There is a blending of various fields and
disciplines and the greatest polymath of the time Davinci (1452-1519) was born and lived. He
had a large range of interests and excelled in many of them such as painting, architecture,
anatomy, mathematics, and engineering. Many of his inventions paved the way for future
artifacts to be constructed and some of his designs though not practical at the time, inspired
future inventors in areas like flight and weapons of war.
The Scientific Revolution occurred during the 16th - 17th Century and we see an explosion in
science, mathematics, engineering. We see a transformation in scientific thinking with figures
like Copernicus, Galileo, and Newton and a paradigm shift towards systematic, anticipatory
approaches to examining the world. Thomas Moore publishes “Utopia” based largely off Plato’s
“Republic” and starting a cascade of utopian literature following it into the 19th century. Some
saw “Utopia” as a blueprint for the future on how to satisfy and make sure, “all people's needs
are met with happiness and fulfillment”. The transformative period witnessed the onset of the
First Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century, marking a global transition towards more
efficient manufacturing processes. This revolution, spanning from around 1760 to 1820–1840,
laid the foundation for comprehensive anticipatory design and societal change. By the 1840s-
1880s, popular science magazines like Scientific American and Popular Science began
publishing articles about research and its future implications, influencing a broad audience.
Furthermore authors such Jules Verne and his novels such as “Twenty Thousand Leagues
Under the Sea” and “From Earth to the Moon” presented visions of technology that did not yet
exist but would some. In the 1880s some societies entered the Second Industrial Revolution
and there was a “convergence of technological development and scientific research”. The
technologies coming out of the last 1800s such as the internal combustion engine, aluminum
alloys, Rayon, petroleum processing, the telegraph and radio could not have been invented
without a large enough body of pre-scientific technical development and further cross-
disciplinary scientific study.

The history of comprehensive anticipatory design science is a rich tapestry woven through
millennia, encompassing the intellectual endeavors of diverse cultures and epochs. From the
speculative philosophy of Ancient Greece to the scientific revolutions and industrial
advancements of later centuries, each era contributed to the evolution of anticipatory design,
laying the groundwork for the innovative approaches that would shape the future. With the birth
of key figures like Buckminster Fuller 1895, the stage was set for further breakthroughs in
comprehensive anticipatory design science. Onward, the journey continued, propelled by the
collective human endeavor to anticipate, innovate, and shape the world to come.

Post Industrial times to current times:

Design science, as conceptualized by luminaries like Buckminster Fuller, represents a

transformative approach to problem-solving and societal advancement. Rooted in the
notion of doing more with less, design science harnesses accumulated knowledge and
resources to anticipate and address comprehensive human needs. Fuller's vision
emphasizes the urgency of embracing this revolution, contrasting it with the destructive
outcomes of traditional revolutions. Understanding the historical context, particularly the
evolution of world's fairs as showcases of human ingenuity and societal aspirations,
provides insight into the trajectory of design science.

Early speculations and influences, spanning from the 1900s to the late 1980s, laid the
groundwork for envisioning the future. From missed predictions about automobiles to
the grandeur of world's fairs like the Century 21 Exposition, these events reflect societal
hopes, fears, and technological aspirations. Visionaries like H.G. Wells and Yevgeny
Zamyatin explored dystopian futures, influencing subsequent literary and speculative
works.
Post-World War II saw the rise of global planning and forecasting efforts, exemplified by
initiatives like President Hoover's Research Committee on Social Trends and the
founding of RAND Corporation. These endeavors, coupled with the establishment of the
Society for General Systems Research, underscored the importance of interdisciplinary
approaches to understanding and shaping the future.

Buckminster Fuller's introduction of design science in 1957 marked a pivotal moment,

advocating for a comprehensive anticipatory approach to design. The subsequent World
Design Science Decade outlined strategies for leveraging planetary resources for the
benefit of all humanity. Fuller's urgency in recognizing nature as technology and his
principles of synergetics emphasized effective resource utilization and the alignment of
human designs with natural systems.

The development of systematic design methodologies, such as S.A. Gregory's

distinction between scientific and design method and Herbert Simon's popularization of
"design science," further propelled the evolution of design as a science. Ongoing
debates and developments, including Suh's axiomatic theory and John S. Gero's
ontology, continue to shape the discourse around design science and its role in
addressing complex societal challenges.

In essence, the journey of design science represents a continuous quest to optimize

human endeavors through foresight, innovation, and a deep understanding of the
interplay between human needs and the natural world.

Sustainable Alternatives

Looking into the future as has been covered previously we see the need to begin the
transition to Livingry which includes alternative and renewable sources of energy. Fuller
“discovered that it is now technically feasible with presently proven technology, to
adequately service all humanity solely by the vast overabundance of our cosmic energy
income - from the Sun,… windpower and wavepower” (Critical path). He knew from a
lifetime analysis that a higher quality of life “could be entirely sustained by our daily
income of Sun energy” (Critical path). While Lewis Mumford extolled the benefits of
“maximi[zing] green space and open areas for interaction, indeed, a variety of
'unplanned' spaces in which people might freely associate”, and reinforce community
understanding(Global village). Mumford was also critical of the “artificial plans” posed by
Buckminster and other technological utopian thinkers. He also critiqued mega-projects
like Paolo Soleri's 'sculpted' city-scape at Arcosanti” and his ideas related to Arcologies
combining the terms Architecture with Ecology (Global Village). Though Mumford did
believe that even though no one singular person’s vision could “ever be adequate to
encompass the eventual flowering of living communities - but one could attend to the
seed-bed, prepare the ground” (Global village).

Furthermore, addressing the challenges of sustainable living requires rethinking

traditional infrastructure and systems. For instance, the lengthy construction timelines of
electric power plants often lead to mismatches between supply and demand, causing
oscillations between overcapacity and undercapacity in electricity industries worldwide.
This highlights the need for more flexible and responsive energy solutions. Additionally,
initiatives like the Toxic Release Inventory, which mandated public reporting of
hazardous emissions from factories, demonstrate the power of transparency in driving
positive change(leverage points). Despite lacking punitive measures, the mere
revelation of emissions data spurred significant reductions, driven in part by corporate
reputational concerns. This underscores the potential for information-sharing and
accountability to catalyze environmental progress, even without direct regulatory
intervention (Leverage points).

Paolo Soleri’s arcology model presents a visionary approach to urban design, aiming to
achieve a harmonious balance between urban form and efficiency within the modern
city. This concept responds to the 20th-century trend of urban sprawl, which has not
only altered natural landscapes but also contributed significantly to the ongoing
environmental crisis. Despite cities occupying a mere 2% of the Earth’s surface, they
consume a disproportionate share of natural resources, generate vast amounts of
waste, and serve as primary sources of pollution worldwide (Arcology and arcosanti).
Recognizing the urgency of addressing environmental degradation, scholars advocate
for a precautionary approach to mitigate further damage to the biosphere. The inherent
uncertainty surrounding environmental risks necessitates a shift away from traditional
risk-based strategies. Instead, there is a growing consensus on the importance of
adopting compact settlement patterns interspersed with productive areas for energy
collection, agriculture, and waste recycling (arcology and arcosanti). This compact city
model is increasingly viewed as a fundamental component of strategies aimed at
addressing the environmental challenges posed by urbanization. Soleri’s vision extends
beyond mere theoretical speculation, proposing a practical framework for transforming
urban landscapes into sustainable, integrated structures known as “arcologies.” These
arcologies represent a fusion of architecture and ecology, emphasizing not only efficient
resource utilization but also the integration of renewable energy sources and waste
reduction strategies(arcology and arcosanti). By reimagining urban spaces as
interconnected ecosystems designed to support both human societies and the natural
environment, Soleri’s neonature concept offers a compelling blueprint for sustainable
urban development in the face of escalating environmental concerns.

Soleri’s approach to urban design fundamentally challenges existing social, cultural,

political, and economic structures, advocating for a radical revision to address the
complexities of modern living. His conceptualization revolves around the Complexity-
Miniaturization-Duration (CMD) paradigm, which underscores the intricate interplay of
various processes within living systems(arcology and arcosanti). Complexity, as Soleri
highlights, characterizes the multifaceted nature of these processes, intensifying over
time. In response, Soleri emphasizes the imperative of miniaturization, asserting that
the rigorous utilization of resources is essential within complex systems. Moreover, he
emphasizes the concept of Duration, suggesting that living processes extend over time
and ultimately transcend temporal constraints, leading to a state of “living outside of
time” (Arcology and arcosanti). This paradigm not only informs Soleri’s arcology model
but also offers a philosophical foundation for reimagining urban environments as
integrated ecosystems. Arcologies, as envisioned by Soleri, offer a holistic solution to
environmental challenges by combining energy conservation, efficient land use, and
waste recycling systems. By integrating these elements, arcologies have the potential to
maintain ecological integrity while minimizing environmental impacts (Arcology and
arcosanti). Notably, arcologies reduce the demand for petrol-based transportation
systems, thus mitigating air pollution and improving overall air quality. Additionally,
passive solar energy systems such as wind turbines, photovoltaic cells, and solar
heating and cooling further contribute to reducing pollution and conserving resources.
Soleri’s vision emphasizes the symbiotic relationship between urban development and
environmental sustainability, demonstrating the potential of arcologies to address
pressing environmental concerns (Arcology and arcosanti).

Space-based solar power (SBSP) holds tremendous promise for sustainable energy
solutions, offering the potential to harvest solar energy in space and transmit it
wirelessly to Earth. NASA envisions SBSP as a viable option for supplementing
terrestrial power transmission infrastructure, particularly in remote areas lacking access
to traditional energy sources (NASA solar power beaming). However, the realization of
SBSP faces significant technological challenges. As highlighted by NASA, several
capability gaps must be addressed, including the assembly and maintenance of large
systems in orbit, the development of autonomous operation capabilities, and efficient
power-beaming methods (NASA solar power beaming). Additionally, the need for
systems to operate in geostationary orbit, higher than the low-Earth orbit paths
commonly used by satellites, presents further complexities (NASA solar power
beaming). Overcoming these challenges will require innovative solutions and sustained
investment in research and development efforts. Furthermore, the feasibility of SBSP
hinges on addressing key cost-related considerations. The launch and manufacturing
costs associated with deploying infrastructure into orbit represent significant barriers to
implementation (NASA solar power beaming). NASA acknowledges the necessity of
addressing these cost challenges to make SBSP economically viable. Despite these
hurdles, NASA is actively developing technologies that indirectly support the
advancement of SBSP. Projects focusing on “autonomous systems, wireless power
beaming, and in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing” are already underway
within NASA’s mission portfolio (NASA solar power beaming). These technological
advancements not only benefit current space exploration efforts but also lay the
groundwork for the eventual realization of SBSP as a sustainable energy solution.

The transition from traditional fossil fuel-based power supply to clean and renewable
energy sources is increasingly urgent due to the environmental and energy crises
plaguing the world. The dominance of non-renewable fossil energy, such as coal and
oil, has led to severe pollution problems and heightened concerns globally (Wind-solar-
hydro). The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic slowdown in 2020
highlighted the resilience of renewable energy, with the installed capacity even
surpassing that of the previous year. This underscores the inevitability of transitioning
towards renewable energy as the prevailing trend (Wind-solar-hydro). However, the
integration of wind, solar, and hydroelectric energy poses unique challenges.
Coordinating the fluctuating output of wind and solar power with the steady supply of
hydroelectric energy requires robust energy storage systems and multi-energy
complementarity. While these systems are essential for grid stability, they face
limitations in terms of safety, service life, and investment, hindering their ability to
support large-scale new energy consumption (Wind-solar-hydro). Additionally, the
unpredictable nature of wind and solar power generation complicates power prediction,
necessitating innovative approaches to ensure the reliable operation of hybrid systems
(Wind-solar-hydro). Despite these challenges, the penetration of clean energy has
increased significantly, with renewables expected to provide nearly half of global
electricity generation by 2050 (Wind-solar-hydro). However, achieving this transition
requires addressing complex stakeholder dynamics and finding innovative solutions to
balance economic interests within the renewable energy ecosystem (Wind-solar-hydro).

Future Areas for Future Research:

The discourse surrounding future areas for research intersects with a broad spectrum of topics,
ranging from the urgent need for sustainable energy solutions to the complexities of societal
transformation and foresight methodologies. Returning to where we began with Fuller he leaves
us with this, “if not bomb-terminated we are on our ever swifter way to do what could never be
done before (Critical Path). The shift from a reliance on non-renewable fossil fuels to clean and
renewable energy sources emerges as a pressing concern, underscored by the recognition of
environmental degradation and the energy crisis. Visionaries like Buckminster Fuller advocate
for the redirection of technological innovation towards “livingry” rather than weaponry,
emphasizing the potential for technology to enhance human well-being and environmental
stewardship (critical path). Concurrently, the integration of wind, solar, and hydroelectric energy
systems presents both opportunities and challenges, necessitating innovative approaches to
energy storage, grid coordination, and predictive modeling. Amidst these challenges, the role of
foresight methodologies becomes increasingly significant. The field of futures studies
encompasses diverse approaches, from technological forecasting to open foresight initiatives,
reflecting a multifaceted exploration of future possibilities (story of futures studies). However, the
“defuturization” of the future by policy scientists highlights the tension between envisioning
transformative change and maintaining stability and security within existing systems (Story of
Futures studies). At the heart of these discussions lies a recognition of the interconnectedness
of systems and the imperative of systemic thinking. Mumford’s critique of utopian visions
underscores the dangers of totalitarianism and the importance of inclusivity in envisioning
alternative futures (global village). Likewise, leverage points theory emphasizes the significance
of understanding systemic rules and power dynamics in addressing systemic malfunctions.
Ultimately, the pursuit of a sustainable and just future requires a nuanced understanding of
complex systems, coupled with innovative solutions and a collective commitment to positive
change.

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