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Numerical
and
Statistical Methods
for CIVIL ENGINEERING
Gujarat Technological University 2017
Second Edition
About the Authors
Ravish R Singh is presently Academic Advisor at Thakur
Educational Trust, Mumbai. He obtained a BE degree from
University of Mumbai in 1991, an MTech degree from IIT
Bombay in 2001, and a PhD degree from Faculty of Technology,
University of Mumbai, in 2013. He has published several books
with McGraw Hill Education (India) Private Limited on varied
subjects like Engineering Mathematics (I and II), Applied
Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Electrical and Electronics
Engineering, etc., for all-India curricula as well as regional
curricula of some universities like Gujarat Technological University, Mumbai University,
Pune University, Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, Anna University,
Uttarakhand Technical University, and Dr A P J Abdul Kalam Technical University
(formerly known as UPTU). Dr Singh is a member of IEEE, ISTE, and IETE, and has
published research papers in national and international journals. His fields of interest
include Circuits, Signals and Systems, and Engineering Mathematics.
Mukul Bhatt is presently Assistant Professor, Department of

Humanities and Sciences, at Thakur College of Engineering
and Technology, Mumbai. She obtained her MSc (Mathematics)
from H N B Garhwal University in 1992. She has published
several books with McGraw Hill Education (India) Private
Limited on Engineering Mathematics (I and II) and Applied
Mathematics for all-India curricula as well as regional curricula
of some universities like Gujarat Technological University,
Mumbai University, Pune University, Jawaharlal Nehru
Technological University, Anna University, Uttarakhand
Technical University, and Dr A P J Abdul Kalam Technical University (formerly known
as UPTU). She has seventeen years of teaching experience at various levels in
engineering colleges in Mumbai and her fields of interest include Integral Calculus,
Complex Analysis, and Operation Research. She is a member of ISTE.
Numerical
and
Statistical Methods
for CIVIL ENGINEERING
Gujarat Technological University 2017
Second Edition
Ravish R Singh
Academic Advisor
Thakur Educational Trust
Mumbai, Maharashtra
Mukul Bhatt
Assistant Professor
Department of Humanities and Sciences
Thakur College of Engineering and Technology
Mumbai, Maharashtra
McGraw Hill Education (India) Private Limited

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Numerical and Statistical Methods for CIVIL ENgINEERINg (Gujarat Technological University 2017)
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Dedicated
To Our Parents
Late Shri Ramsagar Singh
and
Late Shrimati Premsheela Singh
Ravish R Singh
Late Shri Ved Prakash Sharma

and
Late Shrimati Vidyavati Hemdan
Mukul Bhatt
Contents
Preface xi
Roadmap to the Syllabus xv
1. Probability 1.1–1.59
1.1 Introduction 1.1
1.2 Some Important Terms and Concepts 1.1
1.3 Definitions of Probability 1.3
1.4 Theorems on Probability 1.13
1.5 Bayes’ Theorem 1.47
Points to Remember 1.57
2. Random Variables and Probability Distributions 2.1–2.155
2.2 Random Variables 2.2
2.3 Discrete Probability Distribution 2.3
2.4 Discrete Distribution Function 2.4
2.5 Measures of Central Tendency for Discrete Probability
Distribution 2.18
2.6 Continuous Probability Distribution 2.33
2.7 Continuous Distribution Function 2.33
2.8 Measures of Central Tendency for Continuous Probability
Distribution 2.56
2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.76
2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.102
2.11 Normal Distribution 2.127
3. Statistics 3.1–3.87
3.2 Measures of Central Tendency 3.2
3.3 Arithmetic Mean 3.2
3.4 Median 3.24
3.5 Mode 3.34
3.6 Geometric Mean 3.45
3.7 Harmonic Mean 3.47
viii Contents
3.8 Standard Deviation 3.52

3.9 Skewness 3.71
4. Correlation and Regression 4.1–4.58
4.2 Correlation 4.2
4.3 Types of Correlations 4.2
4.4 Methods of Studying Correlation 4.3
4.5 Scatter Diagram 4.4
4.6 Simple Graph 4.5
4.7 Karl Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation 4.5
4.8 Properties of Coefficient of Correlation 4.6
4.9 Rank Correlation 4.22
4.10 Regression 4.29
4.11 Types of Regression 4.30
4.12 Methods of Studying Regression 4.30
4.13 Lines of Regression 4.31
4.14 Regression Coefficients 4.31
4.15 Properties of Regression Coefficients 4.34
4.16 Properties of Lines of Regression (Linear Regression) 4.35
5. Curve Fitting 5.1–5.27
5.2 Least Square Method 5.2
5.3 Fitting of Linear Curves 5.2
5.4 Fitting of Quadratic Curves 5.10
5.5 Fitting of Exponential and Logarithmic Curves 5.18
6. Finite Differences and Interpolation 6.1–6.88
6.2 Finite Differences 6.2
6.3 Different Operators and their Relations 6.6
6.4 Interpolation 6.19
6.5 Newton’s Forward Interpolation Formula 6.19
6.6 Newton’s Backward Interpolation Formula 6.30
6.7 Central Difference Interpolation 6.39
6.8 Gauss’s Forward Interpolation Formula 6.40
6.9 Gauss’s Backward Interpolation Formula 6.44
6.10 Stirling’s Formula 6.48
6.11 Interpolation with Unequal Intervals 6.55
6.12 Lagrange’s Interpolation Formula 6.56
6.13 Divided Differences 6.70
Contents ix
6.14 Newton’s Divided Difference Formula 6.71

6.15 Inverse Interpolation 6.84
7. Numerical Integration 7.1–7.41
7.2 Newton–Cotes Quadrature Formula 7.1
7.3 Trapezoidal Rule 7.2
7.4 Simpson’s 1/3 Rule 7.9
7.5 Simpson’s 3/8 Rule 7.19
7.6 Gaussian Quadrature Formulae 7.31
8. Solutions of a System of Linear Equations 8.1–8.62
8.2 Solutions of a System of Linear Equations 8.2
8.3 Elementary Transformations 8.2
8.4 Numerical Methods for Solutions of a System of Linear Equations 8.3
8.5 Gauss Elimination Method 8.4
8.6 Gauss Elimination Method with Partial Pivoting 8.15
8.7 Gauss–Jordan Method 8.20
8.8 Gauss–Jacobi Method 8.31
8.9 Gauss–Siedel Method 8.37
9. Roots of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations 9.1–9.50
9.2 Bisection Method 9.2
9.3 Regula Falsi Method 9.15
9.4 Newton–Raphson Method 9.22
9.5 Secant Method 9.39
10. Numerical Solutions of Ordinary Differential Equations 10.1–10.64
10.2 Taylor’s Series Method 10.2
10.3 Euler’s Method 10.9
10.4 Modified Euler’s Method 10.16
10.5 Runge–Kutta Methods 10.28
10.6 Milne’s Predictor-Corrector Method 10.53
Index I.1–I.3
Preface
Mathematics is a key area of study in any engineering course. A sound knowledge
of this subject will help engineering students develop analytical skills, and thus
enable them to solve numerical problems encountered in real life, as well as apply
mathematical principles to physical problems, particularly in the field of engineering.
Users
This book is designed for the 4th semester GTU Civil Engineering students pursuing
the course Numerical and Statistical Methods (CODE 2140606). It covers the
complete GTU syllabus for the course on Numerical and Statistical Methods for the
civil engineering branches.
Objective
The crisp and complete explanation of topics will help students easily understand the
basic concepts. The tutorial approach (i.e., teach by example) followed in the text will
enable students to develop a logical perspective to solving problems.
Features
Each topic has been explained from the examination point of view, wherein the theory
is presented in an easy-to-understand student-friendly style. Full coverage of concepts
is supported by numerous solved examples with varied complexity levels, which is
aligned to the latest GTU syllabus. Fundamental and sequential explanation of topics
is well aided by examples and exercises. The solutions of examples are set following a
‘tutorial’ approach, which will make it easy for students from any background to easily
grasp the concepts. Exercises with answers immediately follow the solved examples
enforcing a practice-based approach. We hope that the students will gain logical
understanding from solved problems and then reiterate it through solving similar
exercise problems themselves. The unique blend of theory and application caters to
the requirements of both the students and the faculty. Solutions of GTU examination
questions are incorporated within the text appropriately.
xii Preface
Highlights
∑ Crisp content strictly as per the latest GTU syllabus of Numerical and Statistical
Methods (Regulation 2014)
∑ Comprehensive coverage with lucid presentation style
∑ Each section concludes with an exercise to test understanding of topics
∑ Solutions of GTU examination papers from 2010 to 2015 present appropriately
within the chapters
∑ Solution of 2016 GTU examination paper can be accessible through weblink.
∑ Rich exam-oriented pedagogy:
ã Solved Examples within chapters: 443
ã Solved GTU questions tagged within chapters: 130
ã Unsolved Exercises: 468
Chapter Organization
The content spans the following ten chapters which wholly and sequentially cover
each module of the syllabus.
o Chapter 1 introduces Probability.
o Chapter 2 discusses Random Variables and Probability Distributions.
o Chapter 3 presents Statistics.
o Chapter 4 covers Correlation and Regression.
o Chapter 5 deals with Curve Fitting.
o Chapter 6 presents Finite Differences and Interpolation.
o Chapter 7 explains Numerical Integration.
o Chapter 8 discusses Solutions of a System of Linear Equations.
o Chapter 9 deals with Roots of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations.
o Chapter 10 introduces Numerical Solutions of Ordinary Differential Equations.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to the following reviewers who reviewed various chapters of the script
and generously shared their valuable comments:
Ramesh S Damor L D College of Engineering, Ahmedabad

Jyotindra C Prajapati Marwadi Education Foundation Group of Institutions,
Rajkot
Vijay Solanki Government Engineering College, Patan
Prakash Vihol Government Engineering College, Rajkot
Manokamna Agarwal Silver Oak College of Engineering and Technology,
Ahmedabad
Preface xiii
Som Sahni Babaria Institute of Technology, Vadodara

Bhumika Maheshwari Gandhinagar Institute of Technology, Kalol
Urvi Trivedi SAL Institute of Technology and Engineering Research,
Ahmedabad
We would also like to thank all the staff at McGraw Hill Education (India), especially
Piyali Chatterjee, Anuj Kr. Shriwastava, Koyel Ghosh, Satinder Singh Baveja,
and Vibha Mahajan for coordinating with us during the editorial, copyediting, and
production stages of this book.
Our acknowledgements would be incomplete without a mention of the contribution of
all our family members. We extend a heartfelt thanks to them for always motivating
and supporting us throughout the project.
Constructive suggestions for the improvement of the book will always be welcome.
Ravish R Singh
Mukul Bhatt
Publisher’s Note
Remember to write to us. We look forward to receiving your feedback,
comments, and ideas to enhance the quality of this book. You can reach us at
info.india@mheducation.com. Please mention the title and authors’ name as the
subject. In case you spot piracy of this book, please do let us know.
RoAdmAP to the SyllAbuS
This text is useful for
Numerical and Statistical Methods (Code 2140606)
(For Civil Engineering)
Module 1: Reorientation
Definition of probability; Exhaustive events; Pairwise independent events;
Multiplicative law of probability; Conditional probability; Bayes’ theorem
GO TO
CHAPTER 1: Probability
Module 2: Probability Distributions

Random variable; Mathematical expectation; Standard deviation; Binomial,
Poisson, and normal distributions; Mean; Median; Mode
GO TO
CHAPTER 2: Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Module 3: Descriptive Statistics

Mean; Median; Mode; Standard deviation; Skewness
GO TO
CHAPTER 3: Statistics
Module 4: Correlation and Regression

Bivariate distribution; Correlation coefficients; Regression lines; Formulas for
regression coefficients; Rank correlation
GO TO
CHAPTER 4: Correlation and Regression
Module 5: Curve Fitting

Fitting of linear, quadratic, exponential, and logarithmic curves; Least squares
method
GO TO
CHAPTER 5: Curve Fitting
xvi Roadmap to the Syllabus
Module 6: Finite Differences and Interpolation

Finite differences; Forward, backward, and central operators; Interpolation by
polynomials: Newton’s forward and backward interpolation formulae; Gauss
and Stirling’s central difference formulae; Newton’s divided and Lagrange’s
formulae for unequal intervals
GO TO
CHAPTER 6: Finite Differences and Interpolation
Module 7: Numerical Integration

Newton–Cotes formula; Trapezoidal and Simpson’s formulae; Error formulae;
Gaussian quadrature formulae
GO TO
CHAPTER 7: Numerical Integration
Module 8: Solution of a System of Linear Equations

Gauss elimination; Partial pivoting; Gauss–Jacobi and Gauss–Seidel methods
GO TO
CHAPTER 8: Solutions of a System of Linear Equations
Module 9: Roots of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations

Bisection; False position; Secant and Newton–Raphson methods; Rate of
convergence
GO TO
CHAPTER 9: Roots of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations
Module 10: Numerical Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations

Taylor series method; Euler method; Runge–Kutta method of order four;
Milne’s predictor-corrector method
GO TO
CHAPTER 10: Numerical Solutions of Ordinary Differential
Equations
CHAPTER
Probability
1
chapter outline
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Some Important Terms and Concepts
1.3 Definitions of Probability
1.4 Theorems on Probability
1.5 Bayes’ Theorem
1.1 IntroductIon
The concept of probability originated from the analysis of the games of chance. Even
today, a large number of problems exist which are based on the games of chance, such
as tossing of a coin, throwing of dice, and playing of cards. The utility of probability
in business and economics is most emphatically revealed in the field of predictions for
the future. Probability is a concept which measures the degree of uncertainty and that
of certainty as a corollary.
The word probability or ‘chance’ is used commonly in day-to-day life. Daily, we come
across the sentences like, ‘it may rain today’, ‘India may win the forthcoming cricket
match against Sri Lanka’, ‘the chances of making profits by investing in shares of
Company A are very bright, etc. Each of the above sentences involves an element
of uncertainty. A numerical measure of uncertainty is provided by a very important
branch of mathematics called theory of probability. Before we study the probability
theory in detail, it is appropriate to explain certain terms which are essential for the
study of the theory of probability.
1.2 Some Important termS and conceptS
1. random experiment If an experiment is conducted, any number of times,

under identical conditions, there is a set of all possible outcomes associated with it.
1.2 Chapter 1 Probability
If the outcome is not unique but may be any one of the possible outcomes, the
experiment is called a random experiment, e.g., tossing a coin, throwing a die.
2. outcome The result of a random experiment is called an outcome. For example,

consider the following:
(a) Suppose a random experiment is ‘a coin is tossed’. This experiment gives two
possible outcomes—head or tail.
(b) Suppose a random experiment is ‘a die is thrown’. This experiment gives six pos-
sible outcomes—1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6—on the uppermost face of a die.
3. trial and event Any particular performance of a random experiment is called
a trial and outcome. A combination of outcomes is called an event. For example,
consider the following:
(a) Tossing of a coin is a trial, and getting a head or tail is an event.

(b) Throwing of a die is a trial and getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 is an event.
4. exhaustive event The total number of possible outcomes of a random experi-
ment is called an exhaustive event. For example, consider the following:
(a) In tossing of a coin, there are two exhaustive events, viz., head and tail.
(b) In throwing of a die, there are six exhaustive events, getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or
5 or 6.
5. mutually exclusive events Events are said to be mutually exclusive if the
occurrence of one of them precludes the occurrence of all others in the same trial, i.e.,
they cannot occur simultaneously. For example, consider the following:
(a) In tossing a coin, the events head or tail are mutually exclusive since both head
and tail cannot occur at the same time.
(b) In throwing a die, all the six events, i.e., getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 are
mutually exclusive events.
6. equally Likely events The outcomes of a random experiment are said to be
equally likely if the occurrence of none of them is expected in preference to others. For
example, consider the following:
(a) In tossing a coin, head or tail are equally likely events.

(b) In throwing a die, all the six faces are equally likely events.
7. Independent events Events are said to be independent if the occurrence of an
event does not have any effect on the occurrence of other events. For example, con-
sider the following:
(a) In tossing a coin, the event of getting a head in the first toss is independent of
getting a head in the second, third, and subsequent tosses.
(b) In throwing a die, the result of the first throw does not affect the result of the
second throw.
8. Favourable events The favourable events in a random experiment are the

number of outcomes which entail the occurrence of the event. For example, consider
the following:
In throwing of two dice, the favourable events of getting the sum 5 is (1, 4), (4, 1),
(2, 3), (3, 2), i.e., 4.
1.3 deFInItIonS oF probabILIty
1.3.1 Classical Definition of Probability

Let n be the number of equally likely, mutually exclusive, and exhaustive outcomes
of a random experiment. Let m be number of the outcomes which are favourable to
the occurrence of an event A. The probability of event A occurring, denoted by P(A),
is given by
Number of outcomes favourable to A m
P( A) = =
Number of exhaustive outcomes n
1.3.2 Empirical or Statistical Definition of Probability

If an experiment is repeated a large number of times under identical conditions, the
limiting value of the ratio of the number of times the event A occurs to the total number
of trials of the experiment as the number of trials increase indefinitely is called the
probability of occurrence of the event A.
Let P(A) be the probability of occurrence of the event A. Let m be the number of times
in which an event A occurs in a series of n trials.
m
P( A) = lim , provided the limit is finite and unique.
n Æ• n
1.3.3 Axiomatic Definition of Probability

Before discussing the axiomatic definition of probability, it is necessary to explain
certain concepts that are necessary to its understanding.
1. Sample Space A set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called
a sample space. Each element of the set is called a sample point or a simple event or
an elementary event.
The sample space of a random experiment is denoted by S. For example, consider the
following:
(a) In a random experiment of tossing of a coin, the sample space consists of two
elementary events.
S = {H, T}
(b) In a random experiment of throwing of a die, the sample space consists of six
elementary events.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
The elements of S can either be single elements or ordered pairs. If two coins are
tossed, each element of the sample space consists of the following ordered pairs:
S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
2. event Any subset of a sample space is called an event. In the experiment of
throwing of a die, the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A be the event that an
odd number appears on the die. Then A = {1, 3, 5} is a subset of S. Similarly, let B be
the event of getting a number greater than 3. Then B = {4, 5, 6} is another subset of
S.
Definition of Probability Let S be a sample space of an experiment and A be

any event of this sample space. The probability P(A) of the event A is defined as the
real-value set function which associates a real value corresponding to a subset A of the
sample space S. The probability P(A) satisfies the following three axioms.
Axiom I: P(A) ≥ 0, i.e., the probability of an event is a nonnegative number.

Axiom II: P(S) = 1, i.e., the probability of an event that is certain to occur must be
equal to unity.
Axiom III: If A1, A2, ..., An are finite mutually exclusive events then
P( A1 » A2 » ... » An ) = P( A1 ) + P( A2 ) +  + P ( An )
n
= Â P( Ai )
i =1
i.e., the probability of a union of mutually exclusive events is the sum of probabilities
of the events themselves.
example 1
What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will have
53 Sundays?
Solution
A leap year has 366 days, i.e., 52 weeks and 2 days. These 2 days can occur in the
following possible ways:
(i) Monday and Tuesday (ii) Tuesday and Wednesday
(iii) Wednesday and Thursday (iv) Thursday and Friday
(v) Friday and Saturday (vi) Saturday and Sunday
(vii) Sunday and Monday
Number of exhaustive cases n = 7
Number of favourable cases m = 2
Let A be the event of getting 53 Sundays in a leap year.

m 2
P( A) = =
n 7
example 2
Three unbiased coins are tossed. Find the probability of getting
(i) exactly two heads, (ii) at least one tail, (iii) at most two heads, (iv) a
head on the second coin, and (v) exactly two heads in succession.
Solution
When three coins are tossed, the sample space S is given by
S = {HHH, HTH, THH, HHT, TTT, THT, TTH, HTT}
n(s) = 8
(i) Let A be the event of getting exactly two heads.
A = {HTH, THH, HHT}
n( A) = 3
n( A) 3
P( A) = =
n(S ) 8
(ii) Let B be the event of getting at least one tail.
B = {HTH, THH, HHT, TTT, THT, TTH, HTT}
n( B) = 7
n( B) 7
P ( B) = =
n(S ) 8
(iii) Let C be the event of getting at most two heads.
C = {HTH, THH, HHT, TTT, THT, TTH, HTT}
n(C ) = 7
n(C ) 7
P(C ) = =
n(S ) 8
(iv) Let D be the event of getting a head on the second coin.
D = {HHH, THH, HHT, THT}
n( D) = 4
n( D) 4 1
P( D) = = =
n( S ) 8 2
(v) Let E be the event of getting two heads in succession.

E = {HHH, THH, HHT}
n( E ) = 3
n( E ) 3
P( E ) = =
n(S ) 8
example 3
A fair dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting (i) an even number,
(ii) a perfect square, and (iii) an integer greater than or equal to 3.
Solution
When a dice is thrown, the sample space S is given by
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
n(S) = 6
(i) Let A be the event of getting an even number.
A = {2, 4, 6}
n( A) = 3
n( A) 3 1
P( A) = = =
n(S ) 6 2
(ii) Let B be the event of getting a perfect square.
B = {1, 4}
n( B) = 2
n( B) 2 1
P ( B) = = =
n(S ) 6 3
(iii) Let C be the event of getting an integer greater than or equal to 3.
C = {3, 4, 5, 6}
n(C ) = 4
n(C ) 4 2
P(C ) = = =
n(S ) 6 3
example 4
A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability
of (i) getting a king card, (ii) getting a face card, (iii) getting a red card,
(iv) getting a card between 2 and 7, both inclusive, and (v) getting a
card between 2 and 8, both exclusive.
Solution
Total number of cards = 52
One card out of 52 cards can be drawn in ways.
n(S) = 52C1 = 52
(i) Let A be the event of getting a king card. There are 4 king cards and one of them
can be drawn in 4C1 ways.
n( A) = 4C1 = 4
n( A) 4 1
P( A) = = =
n(S ) 52 13
(ii) Let B be the event of getting a face card. There are 12 face cards and one of them
n( B) = 12C1 = 12
n( B) 12 3
P ( B) = = =
n(S ) 52 13
(iii) Let C be the event of getting a red card. There are 26 red cards and one of them
26
n(C ) = C1 = 26
n(C ) 26 1
P(C ) = = =
n(S ) 52 2
(iv) Let D be the event of getting a card between 2 and 7, both inclusive. There are
6 such cards in each suit giving a total of 6 × 4 = 24 cards. One of them can be
drawn in 24C1 ways.
24
n( D) = C1 = 24
n( D) 24 6
P( D) = = =
n(S ) 52 13
(v) Let E be the event of getting a card between 2 and 8, both exclusive. There are 5
such cards in each suit giving a total of 5 × 4 = 20 cards. One of them can be drawn
in 20C1 ways.
20
n( E ) = C1 = 20
n( E ) 20 5
= = =
n(S ) 52 13
example 5
A bag contains 2 black, 3 red, and 5 blue balls. Three balls are drawn
at random. Find the probability that the three balls drawn (i) are blue
(ii) consist of 2 blue and 1 red ball, and (iii) consist of exactly one black
ball.
Solution
Total number of balls = 10
3 balls out of 10 balls can be drawn in 10C3 ways.
n(S) = 10C3 = 120
(i) Let A be the event that the three balls drawn are blue. 3 blue balls out of 5 blue
balls can be drawn in 5C3 ways.
n( A) = 5C3 = 10
n( A) 10 1
P( A) = = =
n(S ) 120 12
(ii) Let B be the event that the three balls drawn consist of 2 blue and 1 red ball.
2 blue balls out of 5 blue balls can be drawn in 5C2 ways. 1 red ball out of 3 red
balls can be drawn in 3C1 ways.
n( B) = 5C2 ¥ 3C1 = 30
n( B) 30 1
P ( B) = = =
n(S ) 120 4
(iii) Let C be the event that three balls drawn consist of exactly one black ball, i.e.,
remaining two balls can be drawn from 3 red and 5 blue balls. One black ball can
be drawn from 2 black balls in 2C1 ways and the remaining 2 balls can be drawn
from 8 balls in 8C2 ways.
n(C ) = 2C1 ¥ 8C2 = 56
n(C ) 56 7
P(C ) = = =
n(S ) 120 15
example 6
A class consists of 6 girls and 10 boys. If a committee of three is chosen
at random from the class, find the probability that (i) three boys are
selected, and (ii) exactly two girls are selected.
Solution
Total number of students = 16
A committee of 3 students from 16 students can be selected in 16C3 ways.
n(S) = 16C3 = 560
(i) Let A be the event that 3 boys are selected.
n( A) = 10C3 = 120
n( A) 120 3
P( A) = = =
n(S ) 560 14
(ii) Let B be the event that exactly 2 girls are selected. 2 girls from 6 girls can be
selected in 6C2 ways and one boy from 10 boys can be selected in 10C1 ways.
n( B) = 6C2 ¥ 10C1 = 150
n( B) 150 15
P ( B) = = =
n(S ) 560 16
example 7
From a collection of 10 bulbs, of which 4 are defective, 3 bulbs are
selected at random and fitted into lamps. Find the probability that (i) all
three bulbs glow, and (ii) the room is lit.
Solution
Total number of bulbs = 10
3 bulbs can be selected from 10 bulbs in 10C3 ways.
n(S) = 10C3 = 120
(i) Let A be event that all three bulbs glow. This event will occur when 3 bulbs are
selected from 6 nondefective bulbs in 6C3 ways.
n( A) = 6C3 = 20
n( A) 20 1
P( A) = = =
n(S ) 120 6
(ii) Let B be the event that the room is lit. Let B be the event that the room is dark.
The event B will occur when 3 bulbs are selected from 4 defective bulbs in 4C3
ways.
n( B ) = 4C3 = 4
n( B ) 4 1
P( B) = = =
n(S ) 120 30
1 29
\ P ( B) = 1 - P ( B ) = 1 - =
30 30
example 8
There are 20 tickets numbered 1, 2, ..., 20. One ticket is drawn at random.
Find the probability that the ticket bears a number which is (i) even,
(ii) a perfect square, and (iii) multiple of 3.
Solution
There are 20 tickets numbered from 1 to 20.
n(S) = 20
(i) Let A be the event that a ticket bears a number which is even.
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20}
n( A) = 10
n( A) 10 1
P( A) = = =
n(S ) 20 2
(ii) Let B the event that a ticket bears a number which is a perfect square.
B = {1, 4, 9, 16}
n( B) = 4
n( B) 4 1
P ( B) = = =
n(S ) 20 5
(iii) Let C be the event that a ticket bears a number which is a multiple of 3.
C = {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18}
n(C ) = 6
n(C ) 6 3
P(C ) = = =
n(S ) 20 10
example 9
Four letters of the word ‘THURSDAY’ are arranged in all possible ways.
Find the probability that the word formed is ‘HURT’.
Solution
Total number of letters in the word ‘THURSDAY’ = 8
Four letters from 8 letters can be arranged in 8P4 ways.
n(S) = 8P4 = 1680
Let A be the event that the word formed is ‘HURT’. The word ‘HURT’ can be formed
in one way only.
n( A) = 1
n( A) 1
P( A) = =
n(S ) 1680
example 10
A bag contains 5 red, 4 blue, and m green balls. If the probability of
1
getting two green balls when two balls are selected at random is ,
find m. 7
Solution
Total number of balls = 5 + 4 + m = 9 + m
2 balls out of 9 + m balls can be drawn in 9 + mC2 ways.
n(S) = 9 + mC2
Let A be the event that both the balls drawn are green.
2 green balls out of m green balls can be drawn in mC2 ways.
n( A) = m C2
m
n( A) C2
P( A) = = 9+ m
n(S ) C2
1
But P( A) =
7
m
C2 1
9+ m
=
C2 7
m(m - 1) 1
=
(m + 9)(m + 8) 7
(m + 9) (m + 8) = 7 m (m - 1)
m 2 + 17m + 72 = 7m 2 - 7m
6 m 2 - 24 m - 72 = 0
3m 2 - 12 m - 36 = 0
3m 2 - 18m + 6 m - 36 = 0
3m(m - 6) + 6(m - 6) = 0
(3m + 6)(m - 6) = 0
3m + 6 = 0 or m - 6 = 0
m = -2 or m=6
But m π –2
\ m=6
exercISe 1.1
1. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability

that the card drawn is (i) an ace card, and (ii) a club card.
È 1 1˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 13 (ii) 4 ˙˚
2. An unbiased coin is tossed twice. Find the probability of (i) exactly one
head, (ii) at most one head, (iii) at least one head, and (iv) same face on
both the coins.
È 1 3 3 1˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 2 (ii) 4 (iii) 4 (iv) 2 ˙˚
3. A fair dice is thrown thrice. Find the probability that the sum of the
numbers obtained is 10.
È 1˘
ÍÎ ans.: 8 ˙˚
4. A ball is drawn at random from a box containing 12 red, 18 white, 19 blue,

and 15 orange balls. Find the probability that (i) it is red or blue, and
(ii) it is white, blue, or orange.
È 2 43 ˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 5 (ii) 55 ˙˚
5. Eight boys and three girls are to sit in a row for a photograph. Find the
probability that no two girls are together.
È 28 ˘
ÍÎ ans.: 55 ˙˚
6. If four persons are chosen from a group of 3 men, 2 women, and 4

children, find the probability that exactly two of them will be children.
È 10 ˘
ÍÎ ans.: 21˙˚
7. A box contains 2 white, 3 red, and 5 black balls. Three balls are drawn at
random. What is the probability that they will be of different colours?
È 1˘
ÍÎ ans.: 4 ˙˚
8. Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the
probability of getting (i) 2 king cards, (ii) 1 king card and 1 queen card,
and (iii) 1 king card and 1 spade card.
È 1 8 1˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 221 (ii) 663 (iii) 26 ˙˚
9. A four-digit number is to be formed using the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. All the

digits are to be different. Find the probability that the digit formed is
(i) odd, (ii) greater than 4000, (iii) greater than 3400, and (iv) a multiple
of 5.
È 12 2 12 9˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 25 (ii) 5 (iii) 25 (iv) 25 ˙˚
10. 3 books of physics, 4 books of chemistry, and 5 books of mathematics

are arranged in a shelf. Find the probability that (i) no physics books are
together, (ii) chemistry books are always together, and (iii) books of the
same subjects are together.
È 6 1 1 ˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 11 (ii) 55 (iii) 4620 ˙˚
11. 8 boys and 2 girls are to be seated at random in a row for a photograph.
Find the probability that (i) the girls sit together, and (ii) the girls occupy
3rd and 7th seats.
È 1 1˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 5 (ii) 45 ˙˚
12. A committee of 4 is to be formed from 15 boys and 3 girls. Find the

probability that the committee contains (i) 2 boys and 2 girls, (ii) exactly
one girl, (iii) one particular girl, and (iv) two particular girls.
È 7 91 2 2˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 68 (ii) 204 (iii) 9 (iv) 51˙˚
13. If the letters of the word REGULATIONS are arranged at random, what
is the probability that there will be exactly four letters between R and
E?
È 6˘
ÍÎ ans.: 55 ˙˚
14. Find the probability that there will be 5 Sundays in the month of
October.
È 3˘
ÍÎ ans.: 7 ˙˚
1.4 theoremS on probabILIty
theorem 1 The probability of an impossible event is zero, i.e., P(f) = 0, where f

is a null set.
Proof An event which has no sample points is called an impossible event and is
denoted by f.
For a sample space S of an experiment,

S»f=S
Taking probability of both the sides,
P(S » f) = P(S)
Since S and f are mutually exclusive events,

P(S) + P(f) = P(S) [Using Axiom III]
\ P(f) = 0
–
theorem 2 The probability of the complementary event A of A is
–
P(A ) = 1 – P(A)
Proof Let A be an event in the sample space S.
–
A»A=S
–
P(A » A ) = P(S)
–
Since A and A are mutually exclusive events,
P( A) + P ( A) = P (S )
P( A) + P ( A) = 1 [∵ P(S ) = 1]
\ P( A) = 1 - P( A)
–
note Since A and A are mutually exclusive events,
– –
A » A = S and A « A = f
corollary Probability of an event is always less than or equal to one, i.e., P(A) £ 1
–
Proof P(A) = 1 – P(A )
–
P(A) £ 1 [∵ P(A ) ≥ 0 by Axiom I]
De Morgan’s Laws Since an event is a subset of a sample space, De Morgan’s laws
are applicable to events.
P ( A » B) = P ( A « B )
P ( A « B) = P ( A » B )
theorem 3 For any two events A and B in a sample space S,

P ( A « B) = P ( B) - P ( A « B)
Proof From the Venn diagram (Fig. 1.1),
B = ( A « B) » ( A « B)
P( B) = P ÈÎ( A « B) » ( A « B)˘˚
– Fig. 1.1
Since (A « B) and (A « B) are mutually exclusive events,
P ( B) = P ( A « B) + P ( A « B)
P ( A « B) = P ( B) - P ( A « B)
Similarly, it can be shown that
P( A « B ) = P( A) - P( A « B)
theorem 4 Additive Law of Probability (Addition Theorem)

The probability that at least one of the events A and B will occur is given by
P( A » B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A « B)
Proof From the Venn diagram (Fig. 1.1),
A » B = A » ( A « B)
P ( A » B) = P ÈÎ A » ( A « B ˘˚
–
Since A and (A « B) are mutually exclusive events,
P( A » B) = P( A) + P( A « B) [Using Axiom III]

= P ( A) + P ( B) - P ( A « B) [Using Theorem 3]
remarks
1. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, i.e., A « B = f then P(A « B) = 0

according to Theorem 1.
Hence, P(A » B) = P(A) + P(B)
2. The event A » B (i.e., A or B) denotes the occurrence of either A or B or both.
Alternately, it implies the occurrence of at least one of the two events.
A»B=A+B
3. The event A « B (i.e., A and B) is a compound or joint event that denotes the
simultaneous occurrence of the two events.
A « B = AB
Corollary 1 From the Venn diagram (Fig. 1.1),
P ( A » B) = 1 - P ( A « B )
where P( A « B ) is the probability that none of the events A and B occur

simultaneously.
Corollary 2 P(Exactly one of A and B occurs) = P ÈÎ( A « B ) » ( A « B)˘˚
= P ( A « B ) + P ( A « B) ÈÎ∵ ( A « B ) « ( A « B) = f ˘˚
= P( A) - P ( A « B) + P( B) - P( A « B) [Using Theorem 3]
= P ( A) + P ( B) - 2 P ( A « B)
= P ( A » B) - P ( A « B) [Using Theorem 4]
= P (at least one of the two events occur)
– P (the two events occur simultaneously)
Corollary 3 The addition theorem can be applied for more than two events. If A,
B, and C are three events of a sample space S then the probability of occurrence of at
least one of them is given by
P ( A » B » C ) = P [A » ( B » C )]
= P( A) + P ( B » C ) - P [A « ( B » C )]
= P( A) + P ( B » C ) - P [A « B) » ( A « C )]
= P( A) + P ( B) + P (C ) - P ( B « C ) - P( A « B) - P( A « C ) + P( A « B « C )
[Applying Theorem 4 on second and third term ]
Alternately, the probability of occurrence of at least one of the three events can also
be written as
P( A » B » C ) = 1 - P( A « B « C )
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events,
P(A » B » C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
Corollary 4 The probability of occurrence of at least two of the three events is
given by
P [A « B) » ( B « C ) » ( A « C )] = P ( A « B) + P( B « C ) + P( A « C ) - 3P ( A « B « C )
+ P( A « B « C ) [Using Corollary 3]
= P ( A « B) + P ( B « C ) + P ( A « C ) - 2 P ( A « B « C )
Corollary 5 The probability of occurrence of exactly two of the three events is

given by
P ÈÎ A « B « C ) » ( A « B « C ) » ( A « B « C )˘˚
= P [( A « B) » ( B « C ) » ( A « C )] - P ( A « B « C ) [Using Corollary 2]
= P( A « B) + P( B « C ) + P( A « C ) - 3P( A « B « C ) [Using Corollary 4]
Corollary 6 The probability of occurrence of exactly one of the three events is

given by
P ÎÈ( A « B « C ) » ( A « B « C ) » ( A « B « C )˚˘
= P(at least one of the three event occur) – P (at least two of the three events occur)
= P( A) + P( B) + P (C ) - 2 P( A « B) - 2 P( B « C ) - 2 P( A « C ) + 3P ( A « B « C )
example 1
A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of cards. What is the probability
that it is either a spade or an ace?
Solution
Let A and B be the events of getting a spade and an ace card respectively.
13
C1 13
P ( A) = 52
=
C1 52
4
C1 4
P ( B) = 52
=
C1 52
1
C1 1
P ( A « B) = 52
=
C1 52
Probability of getting either a spade or an ace card
P( A » B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A « B)
13 4 1
= + -
52 52 52
4
=
13
example 2
Two cards are drawn from a pack of cards. Find the probability that they
will be both red or both pictures.
Solution
Let A and B be the events that both cards drawn are red and pictures respectively.
26
C2 325
P( A) = 52
=
C2 1326
12
C2 66
P ( B) = 52
=
C2 1326
6
C2 15
P ( A « B) = 52
=
C2 1326
Probability that both cards drawn are red or pictures
P( A » B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A « B)
325 66 15
= + -
1326 1326 1326
188
=
663
example 3
2
The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is
3
5
and the probability that he will not get an electric contract is . If the
9
4
probability of getting any one contract is , what is the probability that
5
he will get both the contracts?
Solution
Let A and B be the events that the contractor will get plumbing and electric contracts
respectively.
2 5 4
P( A) = , P( B ) = , P( A » B) =
3 9 5
5 4
P ( B) = 1 - P ( B ) = 1 - =
9 9
Probability that the contractor will get any one contract
P( A » B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A « B)
Probability that the contractor will get both the contracts
P( A « B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A » B)
2 4 4
= + -
3 9 5
14
=
45
example 4
A person applies for a job in two firms A and B, the probability of his
being selected in the firm A is 0.7 and being rejected in the firm B is 0.5.
The probability of at least one of the applications being rejected is 0.6.
What is the probability that he will be selected in one of the two firms?
Solution
Let A and B be the events that the person is selected in firms A and B respectively.
P( A) = 0.7, P ( B ) = 0.5, P ( A » B ) = 0.6

P( A) = 1 - P ( A) = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3
P( B) = 1 - P ( B ) = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5
P ( A » B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) - P ( A « B ) ... (1)
Probability that the person will be selected in one of the two firms
P ( A » B) = 1 - P ( A « B )
= 1 - ÈÎ P( A) + P ( B ) - P( A » B )˘˚ [Using Eq. (1)]
= 1 - (0.3 + 0.5 - 0.6)
= 0.8
example 5
In a group of 1000 persons, there are 650 who can speak Hindi, 400 can
speak English, and 150 can speak both Hindi and English. If a person is
selected at random, what is the probability that he speaks (i) Hindi only,
(ii) English only, (iii) only of the two languages, and (iv) at least one of
the two languages?
Solution
Let A and B be the events that a person selected at random speaks Hindi and English
respectively.
650 400 150
P( A) = , P ( B) = , P ( A « B) =
1000 1000 1000
(i) Probability that a person selected at random speaks Hindi only
P( A « B ) = P( A) - P( A « B)
650 150
= -
1000 1000
1
=
2
(ii) Probability that a person selected at random speaks English only
P ( A « B) = P ( B) - P ( A « B)
400 150
= -
1000 1000
1
=
4
(iii) Probability that a person selected at random speaks only one of the languages.
P ÈÎ( A « B ) » ( A « B)˘˚ = P( A) + P( B) - 2 P( A « B)
650 400 Ê 150 ˆ
= + - 2Á
1000 1000 Ë 1000 ˜¯
3
=
4
(iv) Probability that a person selected at random speaks at least one of the two
languages
P( A » B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A « B)
650 400 150
= + -
1000 1000 1000
9
=
10
example 6
A box contains 4 white, 6 red, 5 black balls, and 5 balls of other colours.
Two balls are drawn from the box at random. Find the probability that
(i) both are white or both are red, and (ii) both are red or both are
black.
Solution
Let A, B, and C be the events of drawing white, red and black balls from the box
respectively.
4
C2 3
P( A) = 20
=
C2 95
6
C2 3
P ( B) = 20
=
C2 38
5
C2 1
P(C ) = 20
=
C2 19
(i) Probability that the both balls are white or both are red
P( A » B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A « B)
3 3
= + -0
95 38
21
=
190
(ii) Probability that both balls are red or both are black
P ( B » C ) = P ( B) + P (C ) - P ( B « C )
3 1
= + -0
38 19
5
=
38
example 7
Three students A, B, C are in a running race. A and B have the same
probability of winning and each is twice as likely to win as C. Find the
probability that B or C wins.
Solution
Let A, B, and C be the events that students A, B, and C win the race respectively.
P( A) = P ( B) = 2 P (C )
P ( A) + P ( B) + P (C ) = 1
2 P(C ) + 2 P(C ) + P(C ) = 1
1
P (C ) =
5
2 2
\ P( A) = and P( B) =
5 5
Probability that student B or C wins
P( B » C ) = P( B) + P(C ) - P( B « C )
2 1
= + -0
5 5
3
=
5
example 8
A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting
a king or a heart or a red card.
Solution
Let A, B and C be the events that the card drawn is a king, a heart and a red card
respectively.
4
C1 4
P( A) = 52
=
C1 52
13
C1 13
P ( B) = 52
=
C1 52
26
C1 26
P(C ) = 52
=
C1 52
1
C1 1
P ( A « B) = 52
=
C1 52
13
C1 13
P( B « C ) = 52
=
C1 52
2
C1 2
P( A « C ) = 52
=
C1 52
1
C1 1
P( A « B « C ) = 52
=
C1 52
Probability that the card drawn is a king or a heart or a red card.

P( A » B » C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A « B) - P( B « C ) - P( A « C )
+ P( A « B « C )
4 13 26 1 13 2 1
= + + - - - +
52 52 52 52 52 52 52
7
=
3
example 9
From a city, 3 newspapers A, B, C are being published. A is read by
20%, B is read by 16%, C is read by 14%, both A and B are read by 8%,
both A and C are read by 5%, both B and C are read by 4% and all three
A, B, C are read by 2%. What is the probability that a randomly chosen
person (i) reads at least one of these newspapers, and (ii) reads one of
these newspapers?
Solution
Let A, B, and C be the events that the person reads newspapers A, B, and C respectively.
P( A) = 0.2, P( B) = 0.16 P(C ) = 0.14
P( A « B) = 0.08, P( A « B) = 0.05, P( B « C ) = 0.04
P( A « B « C ) = 0.02
(i) Probability that the person reads at least one of these newspapers
P( A » B » C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) - P( A « B) - P( A « C ) - P( B « C )
+ P( A « B « C )
= 0.2 + 0.16 + 0.14 - 0.08 - 0.05 - 0.04 + 0.02
= 0.35
(ii) Probability that the person reads none of these newspapers
P( A « B « C ) = 1 - P( A » B » C )
= 1 - 0.35
= 0.65
Alternatively, the problem can be solved by a Venn diagram A C
(Fig. 1.2). 9 3 7
2
65 6 2
(i) P(the person reads at least one paper) = 1 - = 0.35
100 6
B 65
(ii) P(the person reads none of these papers) = 0.65
Fig. 1.2
exercISe 1.2
2
1. The probability that a student passes a Physics test is and the
3
14
probability that he passes both Physics and English tests is . The
45
4
probability that he passes at least one test is . What is the probability
5
that the student passes the English test?
È 4˘
ÍÎ ans.: 9 ˙˚
2. What is the probability of drawing a black card or a king from a well-

shuffled pack of playing cards?
È 7˘
ÍÎ ans.: 13 ˙˚
3. A pair of unbiased dice is thrown. Find the probability that (i) the sum
of spots is either 5 or 10, and (ii) either there is a doublet or a sum less
than 6.
È 7 7˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 36 (ii) 18 ˙˚
4. From a pack of well-shuffled cards, a card is drawn at random. What is

the probability that the card drawn is a diamond card or a king card?
È 4˘
ÍÎ ans.: 13 ˙˚
5. A bag contains 6 red, 5 blue, 3 white, and 4 black balls. A ball is drawn
at random. Find the probability that the ball is (i) red or black, and
(ii) neither red or black.
È 5 4˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 9 (ii) 9 ˙˚
6. There are 100 lottery tickets, numbered from 1 to 100. One of them
is drawn at random. What is the probability that the number on it is a
multiple of 5 or 7?
È 8˘
ÍÎ ans.: 25 ˙˚
7. From a group of 6 boys and 4 girls, a committee of 3 is to be formed. Find

the probability that the committee will include (i) all three boys or all
three girls, (ii) at most two girls, and (iii) at least one girl.
È 1 29 5˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 5 (ii) 30 (iii) 6 ˙˚
8. From a pack of 52 cards, three cards are drawn at random. Find the
probability that (i) all three will be aces or all three kings, (ii) all three
are pictures or all three are aces, (iii) none is a picture, (iv) at least one
is a picture, (v) none is a spade, (vi) at most two are spades, and (vii) at
least one is a spade.
È 2 56 38 47 ˘
Í ans.: (i) 5225 (ii) 5225 (iii) 85 (iv) 85 ˙
Í ˙
Í 703 839 997 ˙
(v) (vi) (vii)
ÎÍ 1700 850 1700 ˙˚
9. From a set of 16 cards numbered 1 to 16, one card is drawn at random.

Find the probability that (i) the number obtained is divisible by 3 or 7,
and (ii) not divisible by 3 and 7.
È 7 9˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 16 (ii) 16 ˙˚
10. There are 12 bulbs in a basket of which 4 are working. A person tries
to fit them in 3 sockets choosing 3 of the bulbs at random. What is
the probability that there will be (i) some light, and (ii) no light in the
room?
È 41 14 ˘
ÍÎ ans.: (i) 55 (ii) 55 ˙˚
theorem 5 Multiplicative Law or Compound Law of Probability

A compound event is the result of the simultaneous occurrence of two or more event.
The probability of a compound event depends upon whether the events are independent
or not. Hence, there are two theorems:
(a) Conditional Probability Theorem
(b) Multiplicative Theorem for Independent Events
(a) Conditional Probability Theorem For any two events A and B in a sample
space S, the probability of their simultaneous occurrence, i.e., both the events occurrings
simultaneously is given by
P( A « B) = P( A) P( B /A)
or P ( A « B ) = P ( B ) P ( A /B )
where P(B/A) is the conditional probability of B given that A has already occurred.
P(A/B) is the conditional probability of A given that B has already occurred.
(b) Multiplicative Theorem for Independent Events If A and B are two
independent events, the probability of their simultaneous occurrence is given by
P( A « B) = P ( A) P( B)
P ( A « B ) = P ( B ) P ( A /B ) ...(1.1)
Proof A = ( A « B) » ( A « B )
Since ( A « B) and ( A « B ) are mutually exclusive events,
P( A) = P( A « B) + P( A « B ) [Using Axiom III]

= P ( B ) P ( A /B ) + P ( B ) P ( A /B )
If A and B are independent events, the proportion of A’s in B is equal to proportion of
–
A’s in B , i.e., P( A /B) = P( A /B ).
P( A) = P( A /B) ÈÎ P( B) + P ( B )˘˚
= P ( A /B )
Substituting in Eq. (1.1),
\ P( A « B) = P ( A) P ( B)
remark The additive law is used to find the probability of A or B, i.e., P(A » B).
The multiplicative law is used to find the probability of A and B, i.e., P(A « B).
Corollary 1 If A, B and C are three events then

P( A « B « C ) = P( A) P ( B /A) P [C /( A « B)]
If A, B and C are independent events,
P( A « B « C ) = P( A) P ( B) P (C )
– – – –
Corollary 2 If A and B are independent events then A and B , A and B, A and B are
also independent.
Corollary 3 The probability of occurrence of at least one of the events A, B, C is

given by
P( A » B » C ) = 1 - P( A « B « C )
If A, B, and C are independent events, their complements will also be independent.
P( A » B » C ) = 1 - P ( A) P ( B ) P (C )
pairwise Independence and mutual Independence The events A, B and C are

mutually independent if the following conditions are satisfied simultaneously:
P( A « B) = P ( A) P ( B)
P( B « C ) = P ( B) P (C )
P( A « C ) = P ( A) P (C )
and P( A « B « C ) = P( A) P ( B) P (C )
If the last condition is not satisfied, the events are said to be pairwise independent.
Hence, mutually independent events are always pairwise independent but not vices
versa.
example 1
If A and B are two events such that P( A) = 2 , P( A « B) = 1 and
3 6
1
P(A « B) = , find P( B), P ( A » B), P ( A /B), P( B /A), P( A » B) and
– 3
P(B ). Also, examine whether the events A and B are (i) equally likely,
(ii) exhaustive, (iii) mutually exclusive, and (iv) independent.
Solution
P ( B) = P ( A « B) + P ( A « B)
1 1
= +
6 3
1
=
2
P ( A » B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) - P ( A « B )
2 1 1
= + -
3 2 3
5
=
6
P ( A « B)
P ( A /B) =
P ( B)
Ê 1ˆ
ÁË 3 ˜¯
=
Ê 1ˆ
ÁË 2 ˜¯
2
=
3
P ( A « B)
P ( B /A) =
P ( A)
Ê 1ˆ
ÁË 3 ˜¯
=
Ê 2ˆ
ÁË 3 ˜¯
1
=
2
P ( A » B) = P ( A) + P ( B) - P ( A « B)
1 1 1
= + -
3 2 6
2
=
3
P ( A « B ) = 1 - P ( A » B)
5
= 1-
6
1
=
6
P ( B ) = 1 - P ( B)
1
= 1-
2
1
=
2
(i) Since P(A) π P(B), A and B are not equally like events.
(ii) Since P(A » B) π 1, A and B are not exhaustive events.
(iii) Since P(A « B) π 0, A and B are not mutually exclusive events.

(iv) Since P(A « B) = P(A) P(B), A and B are independent events.
example 2
If A and B are two events such that P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4,
P(A « B) = 0.2, find (i) P(A » B), (ii) P ( A /B), and (iii) P ( A /B ).
Solution
(i) P( A » B) = P( A) + P( B) - P( A « B)
= 0.3 + 0.4 - 0.2
= 0.5
(ii) P( A /B) = P( A « B)
P ( B)
P ( B) - P ( A « B)
=
P ( B)
0.4 - 0.2
=
0.4
= 0.5
(iii) P( A /B ) = P( A « B )
P( B)
P( A) - P( A « B)
=
1 - P ( B)
0.3 - 0.2
=
1 - 0.4
1
=
6
example 3
1 1 1
If A and B are two events with P( A) = , P( B) = , P( A « B) = .
3 4 12
Find (i) P(A/B), (ii) P(B/A), (iii) P ( B /A), and (iv) P ( A « B ).
Solution
1
P( A « B) 12 1
(i) P( A /B) = = =
P ( B) 1 3
4
1
P( A « B) 12 1
(ii) P( B /A) = = =
P( A) 1 4
3
P ( B « A)
(iii) P( B /A) =
P ( A)
P( B) - P( B « A)
=
1 - P( A)
1 1
-
= 4 12
1
1-
3
1
=
4
(iv) P( A « B ) = P( A) - P( A « B)
1 1
= -
3 12
1
=
4
example 4
Find the probability of drawing a queen and a king from a pack of cards
in two consecutive draws, the cards drawn not being replaced.
Solution
Let A be the event that the card drawn is a queen.
4
C1 4 1
P( A) = 52
= =
C1 52 13
Let B be the event that the cards drawn are a king in the second draw given that the
first card drawn is a queen.
4
C1 4
P( B /A) = 51
=
C1 51
Probability that the cards drawn are a queen and a king

P( A « B) = P( A) P( B /A)
4 4
= ¥
52 51
4
=
663
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dropped all active proceedings, leaving the new sect to progress as
it might, with the impulse gained from the re-action consequent on
this late unfortunate excitement against it. But they still kept a
watchful eye on their proceedings, though with hands for a while
powerless; and treasured up accumulating vengeance through
tedious years, for the day when the progress of political changes
should bring the secular power beneath their influence, and make it
subservient to their purpose of dreadful retribution. That day had
now fully come.
peter’s threatened martyrdom.
The long expected favorite and friend of the Jewish people, having
been thus hailed sovereign by their grateful voices, and having
strengthened his throne and influence by his opening acts of
liberality and devotion to the national faith, now entered upon a reign
which presented only the portents of a course most auspicious to his
own fame and his people’s good. Uniting in his person the claims of
the Herodian and Asmonaean lines,――with the blood of the heroic
Maccabees in his veins,――crowned by the imperial lord of the
civilized world, whose boundless power was pledged in his support,
by the obligations of an intimate personal friendship, and of a sincere
gratitude for the attainment of the throne of the Caesars through his
prompt and steady exertions,――received with universal joy and
hope by all the dwellers of the consolidated kingdoms of his
dominion, which had been long thriving under the mild and equitable
administration of a prudent governor,――there seemed nothing
wanting to complete the happy auspices of a glorious reign, under
which the ancient honors of Israel should be more than retrieved
from the decline of ages. Yet what avails the bright array of happily
conspiring circumstances, to prince or people, against the awful
majesty of divine truth, or the pure, simple energy of human
devotion? Within the obscurer corners of his vast territories, creeping
for room under the outermost colonnades of that mighty temple
whose glories he had pledged himself to renew,――wandering like
outcasts from place to place,――seeking supporters only among the
unintellectual mass of the people,――were a set of men of whom he
probably had not heard until he entered his own dominions. They
were now suggested to his notice for the first time, by the decided
voice of censure from the devout and learned guardians of the purity
of the law of God, who invoked the aid of his sovran power, to check
and utterly uproot this heresy, which the unseasonable tolerance of
Roman government had too long shielded from the just visitations of
judicial vengeance. Nor did the royal Agrippa hesitate to gratify, in
this slight and reasonable matter, the express wishes of the reverend
heads of the Jewish faith and law. Ah! how little did he think, that in
that trifling movement was bound up the destiny of ages, and that its
results would send his name――though then so loved and
honored――like Pharaoh’s, down to all time, a theme of religious
horror and holy hatred, to the unnumbered millions of a thousand
races, and lands then unknown;――an awful doom, from which one
act of benign protection, or of prudent kindness, to that feeble band
of hated, outcast innovators, might have retrieved his fame, and
canonized it in the faithful memory of the just, till the glory of the old
patriarchs and prophets should grow dim. But, without one thought of
consequences, a prophetic revelation of which would so have
appalled him, he unhesitatingly stretched out his arm in vindictive
cruelty over the church of Christ, for the gratification of those whose
praise was to him more than the favor of God. Singling out first the
person whom momentary circumstances might render most
prominent or obnoxious to censure, he at once doomed to a bloody
death the elder son of Zebedee, the second of the great apostolic
three. No sooner was this cruel sentence executed, than, with a
most remarkable steadiness in the execution of his bloody plan, he
followed up this action, so pleasing to the Jews, by another similar
movement. Peter, the active leader of the heretical host, ever
foremost in braving the authority of the constituted teachers of the
law, and in exciting commotion and dissatisfaction among the
commonalty, was now seized by a military force, too strong to fear
any resistance from popular movements, which had so much
deterred the Sanhedrim. This occurred during the week of the
passover; and such was king Agrippa’s profound regard for all things
connected with his national religion, that he would not violate the
sanctity of this holy festival by the execution of a criminal, however
deserving of vengeance he might seem in that instance. The fate of
Peter being thus delayed, he was therefore committed to prison,
(probably in castle Antonia,) and to prevent all possibility of his
finding means to escape prepared ruin again, he was confined to the
charge of sixteen Roman soldiers, divided into four sets, of four men
each, who were to keep him under constant supervision day and
night, by taking turns, each set an equal time; and according to the
established principles of the Roman military discipline, with the
perfect understanding that if, on the conclusion of the passover, the
prisoner was not forthcoming, the guards should answer the failure
with their lives. These decided and careful arrangements being
made, the king, with his gratified friends in the Sanhedrim and
among the rabble, gave themselves up to the enjoyment of the great
national festival, with a peculiar zest, hightened by the near prospect
of the utter overthrow of the advancing heresy, by the sweeping blow
that robbed them of their two great leaders, and more especially of
him who had been so active in mischievous attempts to perpetuate
the memory of the original founder of the sect, and to frustrate the
good effect of his bloody execution, by giving out that the crucified
Jesus still lived, and would yet come in vengeance on his murderers.
While such triumphant reflections swelled the festal enjoyments of
the powerful foes of Christ, the unhappy company of his persecuted
disciples passed through this anniversary-week with the most
mournful reminiscences and anticipations. Ten years before, in
unutterable agony and despair, they had parted, as they then
supposed forever, with their beloved Lord; and now, after years of
devotion to the work for which he had commissioned them, they
were called to renew the deep sorrows of that parting, in the removal
of those who had been foremost among them in the great work,
cheering them and leading them on through toil and peril, with a
spirit truly holy, and with a fearless energy, kindred with that of their
divine Lord. Of these two divinely appointed chiefs, one had already
poured out his blood beneath the executioner’s sword, and the other,
their great leader, the Rock of the church, was now only waiting the
speedy close of the festal week, to crown his glorious course, and
his enemies’ cruel policy, by the same bloody doom; meanwhile held
in the safe keeping of an ever-watchful Roman guard, forbidding
even the wildest hope of escape. Yet why should they wholly
despair? On that passover, ten years before, how far more gloomy
and hopeless the glance they threw on the cross of their Lord! Yet
from that doubly hopeless darkness, what glorious light sprang up to
them? And was the hand that then broke through the bands of death
and the gates of Hades, now so shortened that it could not sever the
vile chains of paltry tyranny which confined this faithful apostle, nor
open wide the guarded gates of his castle prison? Surely there was
still hope for faith which had been taught such lessons of undoubting
trust in God. Nor were they thoughtless of the firm support and high
consolations which their experience afforded. In prayer intense and
unceasing, they poured out their souls in sympathetic grief and
supplication, for the relief of their great elder brother from his deadly
peril; and in sorrowful entreaty the whole church continued day and
night, for the safety of Peter.
Castle Antonia.――For Josephus’s account of the position and erection of this work, see
my note on page 95, (section 8.) There has been much speculation about the place of the
prison to which Peter was committed. The sacred text (Acts xii. 10,) makes it plain that it
was without the city itself, since after leaving the prison it was still necessary to enter the
city by “the iron gate.” Walch, Kuinoel and Bloomfield adopt the view that it was in one of the
towers or castles that fortified the walls. Wolf and others object to the view that it was
without the walls; because, as Wolf says, it was not customary to have public prisons
outside of the cities, since the prisoners might in that case be sometimes rescued by a bold
assault from some hardy band of comrades, &c. But this objection is worth nothing against
castle Antonia, which, though it stood entirely separated from the rest of the city, was vastly
strong, and by its position as well as fortification, impregnable to any common force;――a
circumstance which would at once suggest and recommend it as a secure place for one
who, like Peter, had escaped once from the common prison. There was always a Roman
garrison in Antonia. (Josephus, Jewish War, V. v. 8.)
In the steady contemplation of the nearness of his bloody doom,

the great apostle remained throughout the passover, shut off from all
the consolations of fraternal sympathy, and awaiting the end of the
few hours which were still allotted by the religious scruples of his
mighty sovran. In his high and towering prison in Castle Antonia,
parted only by a deep, broad rift in the precipitous rocks, from the
great terraces of the temple itself, from whose thronged courts now
rung the thanksgiving songs of a rejoicing nation, he heard them,
sending up in thousands of voices the praise of their fathers’ God,
who still remembered Israel in mercy, renewing their ancient glories
under the bright and peaceful dominion of their new-crowned king.
And with the anthems of praise to God which sounded along the
courts and porches of the temple, were no doubt heard, too, the
thanks of many a grateful Hebrew for the goodness of the generous
king, who had pledged his royal word to complete the noble plan of
that holy pile, as suited the splendid conceptions of the founder. And
this was the king whose decree had doomed that lonely and
desolate prisoner in the castle, to a bloody and shameful
death,――as a crowning offering at the close of the great festival;
and how few among that vast throng, before whose eyes he was to
yield his life, would repine at the sentence that dealt exterminating
vengeance on the obstinately heretical preacher of the crucified
Nazarene’s faith! Well might such dark visions of threatening ruin
appal a heart whose enthusiasm had caught its flame from the
unholy fires of worldly ambition, or devoted its energies to the low
purpose of human ascendency. And truly sad would have been the
lonely thoughts of this very apostle, if this doom had found him in the
spirit which first moved him to devote himself to the cause which now
required the sacrifice of life. But higher hopes and feelings had
inspired his devoted exertions for ten years, and higher far, the
consolations which now sustained him in his friendless desolation.
This very fate, he had long been accustomed to regard as the earthly
meed of his labors; and he had too often been threatened with it, to
be overwhelmed by its near prospect. Vain, then, were all solemn
details of that awful sentence, to strike terror into his fixed
soul,――vain the dark sureties of the high, steep rock, the massive,
lofty walls, the iron gates, the ever-watchful Roman guards, the
fetters and manacles, to control or check the
“Eternal spirit of the chainless mind!――
Brightest in dungeons, Liberty! thou art,
For there thy habitation is the heart.”
Thus sublimely calm, sat Peter in his prison, waiting for death.
Day after day, all day long, the joyous feast went on beneath
him:――the offering, the prayer and the hymn varying the mighty
course, from the earliest morning supplication to the great evening
sacrifice. Up rolled the glorious symphony of the Levites’ thousand
horns, and the choral harmony of their chanting voices,――up rolled
the clouds of precious incense to the skiey throne of Israel’s
God,――and with this music and fragrance, up rolled the prayers of
Israel’s worshiping children; but though the glorious sound and odor
fell delightfully on the senses of the lonely captive, as they passed
upwards by his high prison-tower, no voice of mercy came from
below, to cheer him in his desolation. But from above, from the
heaven to which all these prayer-bearing floods of incense and
harmony ascended, came down divine consolation and miraculous
delivery to this poor, despised prisoner, with a power and a witness
that not all the solemn pomp of the passover ceremony could
summon in reply to its costly offerings. The feeble band of sorrowing
Nazarenes, from their little chamber, were lifting unceasing voices of
supplication for their brother, in his desperate prospects, which
entered with his solitary prayer into the ears of the God of Hosts,
while the ostentatious worship of king Agrippa and his reverend
supporters, only brought back shame and woful ruin on their impious
supplications for the divine sanction to their bloody plans of
persecution. At last the solemn passover-rites of “the last great day
of the feast” were ended;――the sacrifice, the incense and the song,
rose no more from the sanctuary,――the fires on the altars went out,
the hum and the roar of worshiping voices was hushed, and the
departing throngs poured through the “eternal” and the “beautiful”
gates, till at last the courts and porches of the temple were empty
through all their vast extent, and hushed in a silence, deep as the
ruinous oblivion to which the voice of their God had doomed them
shortly to pass; and all was still, save where the footfall of the
passing priest echoed along the empty colonnades, as he hurried
over the vast pavements into the dormitories of the inner temple; or
where the mighty gates thundered awfully as they swung heavily
together under the strong hands of the weary Levites, and sent their
long reverberations among the walls. Even these closing sounds
soon ceased also; the Levite watchmen took their stand on the
towers of the temple, and paced their nightly rounds along the flat
roofs, guarding with careful eyes their holy shrine, lest the impious
should, under cover of night, again profane it, (as the Samaritans
had secretly done a few years before.) And on the neighboring castle
of Antonia, the Roman garrison, too, had set their nightly watch, and
the iron warriors slumbered, each in his turn, till the round of duty
should summon him to relieve guard. Within the dungeon keep of the
castle, was still safely held the weighty trust that was to be answered
for, on peril of life; and all arrangements were made which so great a
responsibility seemed to require. The prisoner already somewhat
notorious for making unaccountable escapes from guarded
dungeons, was secured with a particularity, quite complimentary to
his dexterity as a jail-breaker. The quaternion on duty was divided
into two portions; each half being so disposed and posted as to
effect the most complete supervision of which the place was
capable,――two men keeping watch outside of the well-bolted door
of the cell, and two within, who, not limited to the charge of merely
keeping their eyes on the prisoner, had him fastened to their bodies,
by a chain on each side. In this neighborly proximity to his rough
companions, Peter was in the habit of passing the night; but in the
day-time was freed from one of these chains, remaining attached to
only one soldier. (This arrangement was in accordance with the
standard mode of guarding important state-prisoners among the
Romans.) Matters being thus accommodated, and the watch being
set for the next three hours, Peter’s two fast companions, finding him
but indifferent company, no doubt, notwithstanding his sociable
position, soon grew quite dull in the very tame employment of seeing
that he did not run away with them; for as to getting away from them,
the idea could have no place at all in the supposition. These sturdy
old veterans had probably, though Gentiles, conformed so far to
Judaical rituals as to share in the comfortable festivities of this great
religious occasion, and could not have suffered any heathenish
prejudices to prevent them from a hearty participation in the joyous
draughts of the wine, which as usual did its part to enliven the hearts
and countenances of all those who passed the feast-day in
Jerusalem. The passover coming so many months after the vintage
too, the fermentation of a long season must have considerably
energized “the pure juice of the grape,” so that its exhilarant and
narcotic powers could have been by no means feeble; and if the
change thus wrought by time and its own inherent powers, at all
corresponds to that which takes places in cider in this country under
the same circumstances, the latter power must have so far
predominated, as to leave them rather below than above the
ordinary standard of vivacity, and induce that sort of apathetic
indifference to consequences, which is far from appropriate in a
soldier on duty over an important trust. Be that as it may, Peter’s two
room-mates soon gave themselves quietly up to slumber. If any
scruple arose in their heavy heads as to the risk they ran in case of
his escape, that was soon soothed by the consideration of the vast
number of impassable securities upon the prisoner. They might well
reason with themselves, “If this sharp Galilean can manage to break
his chains without waking us, and burst open this stout door in spite
of bars, without rousing the sentinels who are posted against it on
the outside, and make his way unseen and unchecked through all
the gates and guards of Castle Antonia――why, let him. But there’s
no use in our losing a night’s rest by any uneasiness about such a
chance.” So stretching themselves out, they soon fell into a sound
sleep, none the less pleasant for their lying in such close quarters;
for it is natural to imagine, that in a chilly March night in Jerusalem,
stowing three in a bed was no uncomfortable arrangement.
Circumstanced as he was, Peter had nothing to do but conform to
their example, for the nature of his attachment to them was such,
that he had no room for the indulgence of his own fancies about his
position; and he also lay down to repose. He slept. The sickening
and feverish confinement of his close dungeon had not yet so broken
his firm and vigorous frame, nor so drained its energies, as to hinder
the placid enjoyment of repose; nor did the certainty of a cruel and
shameful death, to which he was within a few hours to be dragged,
before the eyes of a scoffing rabble, move his high spirit from its self-
possession:――
“And still he slumbered
While in ‘decree, his hours’ were numbered.”
He slept. And from that dark prison-bed what visions could beguile
his slumbering thoughts? Did fancy bear them back against the tide
of time, to the humble, peaceful home of his early days,――to the
varied scenes of the lake whereon he loved to dwell, and along
whose changeful waters he had learned so many lessons of
immortal faith and untrembling hope in his Lord? Amid the stormy
roar of its dark waters, the voice of that Lord once called him to
tempt the raging deep with his steady foot, and when his feeble faith,
before untried, failed him in the terrors of the effort, His supporting
hand recalled him to strength and safety. And had that lesson of faith
and hope been so poorly learned, that in this dark hour he could
draw no consolation from such remembrances? No. He could even
now find that consolation, and he did. In the midst of this “sea of
troubles,” he felt the same mighty arm now upholding him, that bore
him above the waters, “when the blue wave rolled nightly on deep
Galilee.” Again he had stood by those waters, swelling brightly in the
fresh morning breeze, with his risen Lord beside him, and received
the solemn commission, oft-renewed, to feed the flock that was so
soon to lose the earthly presence of its great Shepherd. In the
steady and dauntless execution of that parting commission, he had
in the course of long years gone on in the face of death,――“feeding
the lambs” of Christ’s gathering, and calling vast numbers to the fold;
and for the faithful adherence to that command, he now sat waiting
the fulfilment of the doom that was to cut him down in the midst of
life and in the fullness of his vigor. Yet the nearness of this sad
reward of his labors, seemingly offering so dreadful an interpretation
of the mystical prophecy that accompanied that charge, moved him
to no desperation or distress, and still he calmly slept, with as little
agitation and dread as at the transfiguration, and at the agony of the
crucifixion eve; nor did that compunction for heedless inattention,
that then hung upon his slumbering senses, now disturb him in the
least. It is really worth noticing, in justice to Peter, that his
sleepiness, of which so many curious instances are presented in the
sacred narrative, was not of the criminally selfish kind that might be
supposed on a partial view. If he slept during his Master’s prayers on
Mount Hermon, and in Gethsemane, he slept too in his own
condemned cell; and if in his bodily infirmity he had forgotten to
watch and pray when death threatened his Lord, he was now equally
indifferent to his own impending destruction. He was, evidently, a
man of independent and regular habits. Brought up a hard-working
man, he had all his life been accustomed to repose whenever he
was at leisure, if he needed it; and now too, though the “heathen
might rage, and the people imagine a vain thing,――though the
kings of the earth set themselves, and the rulers took counsel
together” against him, and doomed him to a cruel death,――in spite
of all these, Peter would sleep when he was sleepy. Not the royal
Agrippa could sleep sounder on his pavilioned couch of purple. In
the calm confidence of one steadily fixed in a high course, and
perfectly prepared for every and any result, the chained apostle gave
himself coolly to his natural rest, without borrowing any trouble from
the thought, that in the morning the bloody sword was to lay him in
“the sleep that knows no earthly waking.” So slept the Athenian
sage, on the eve of his martyrdom to the cause of clearly and boldly
spoken truth,――a sleep that so moved the wonder of his agonizing
disciples, at the power of a good conscience and a practical
philosophy to sustain the soul against the horrors of such distress;
but a sleep not sounder nor sweeter than that of the poor Galilean
outcast, who, though not knowing even the name of philosophy, had
a consolation far higher, in the faith that his martyred Lord had taught
him in so many experimental instructions. That faith, learned by the
painful conviction of his own weakness, and implanted in him by
many a fall when over confident in his own strength, was now his
stay and comfort, so that he might say to his soul, “Hope thou in
God, for I shall yet praise him, who is the help of my countenance
and my God.” Nor did that hope prove groundless. From him in
whom he trusted, came a messenger of deliverance; and from the
depths of a danger the most appalling and threatening, he was soon
brought, to serve that helping-God through many faithful years,
feeding the flock till, in his old age, “another should gird him, and
carry him whither he would not.” He who had prayed for him in the
revelation of his peculiar glories on Mount Hermon, and had so
highly consecrated him to the great cause, had yet greater things for
him to do; and to new works of love and glory he now called him,
from the castle-prison of his royal persecutor.
Ten years.――This piece of chronology is thus settled. Jesus Christ, according to all
common calculation, was crucified as early as the twentieth year of the reign of Tiberius.
Irenaeus maintains that it was in the fifteenth of that reign. Eusebius and Epiphanius fix it in
the eighteenth, or, according to Petavius’s explanation of their meaning, in the seventeenth
of his actual reign. Tertullian, Julius Africanus, Jerome, and Augustin, put it in the sixteenth.
Roger Bacon, Paulus Burgensis, and Tostatus, also support this date, on the ground of an
astronomical calculation of the course of the moon, fixing the time when the passover must
have occurred, so as to accord with the requirement of the Mosaic law, that it should be
celebrated on a new moon. But Kepler has abundantly shown the fallacy of this calculation.
Antony Pagus, also, though rejecting this astronomical basis, adheres to the opinion of
Tertullian, Jerome, &c. Baronius fixes it in the nineteenth of Tiberius. Pearson, L. Cappel,
Spanheim, and Witsius, with the majority of the moderns, in the twentieth of Tiberius. So
that the unanimous result of all these great authorities, places it as early as this last
mentioned year. A full and highly satisfactory view of all these chronological points and
opinions, is given by the deeply learned Antony Pagus, in his great “Critical Historico-
Chronological Review of Baronii.” Saecul. I. Ann. Per. Gr.‒Rom. 5525. ¶ 3‒13.
Now, from Josephus it is perfectly evident that Agrippa did not leave Rome until some
time after the beginning of the reign of Claudius, and it is probable not before the close of
the first year. Counting backwards through the four years of Caligula, this makes five years
after the death of Tiberius, and eight on the latest calculation from the death of Christ; while
according to the higher and earlier authority, it amounts to nine, ten, eleven, or to twelve
years from the crucifixion to Agrippa’s arrival in Judea. And moreover, it is not probable that
the persecution referred to occurred immediately on his arrival. Indeed, from the close way
in which Luke connects Agrippa’s death with the preceding events, it would seem as if he
would fix his “going down from Jerusalem to Caesarea,” and his death at the latter place,
very soon after the escape of Peter. This of course being in the end of Claudius’s third year,
brings the events above, down to the eleventh or twelfth from the crucifixion, even
according to the latest conjecture as to the date of that event. Probably, however, the
connection of the two events was not as close as a common reading of the Acts would lead
one to suppose.
So also Lardner, in his Life of Peter, says, “The death of Herod Agrippa happened before
the end of that year,” in which he escaped. (Lardner’s Works 4to. Vol. III. p. 402, bottom.)
Natalis Alexander fixes Peter’s escape in the second year of Claudius, and the forty-
fourth from Christ’s birth, which is, according to his computation, the tenth from his death.
(Church History, Saec. I. Cap. vi.)
A chain on each side.――That this was a common mode of fastening such prisoners
among the Romans, appears from the authorities referred to by Wolf, (Cur. Philology in Acts
xii. 6,) Kuinoel and Rosenmueller, (quoting from Walch,) and Bloomfield, all in loc.
Quaternion.――That is, a band of four. See Bloomfield in defense of my mode of

disposing them about the prison,――also Rosenmueller, &c. Wolf quotes appositely from
Polybius; but Kuinoel is richest of all in quotations and illustrations. (Acts xii. 4, 5.)
the deliverance.
Peter was now quietly sleeping between his two guards, when his
rest was suddenly broken by a smart blow on the side, too
energetically given to be mistaken for an accidental knock from the
elbow of one of his heavy bed-fellows. Rousing his senses, and
opening his eyes, he was startled by a most remarkable light shining
throughout his dungeon, which his last waking glance had left in utter
darkness. In this unaccountable illumination, he saw standing before
him and bending over him, a form in which he could recognize only
the divine messenger of deliverance. The shock of such a surprise
must have been overwhelming;――to be waked from a sound sleep
by an appearance so utterly unearthly, might have struck horror into
the stoutest heart; but Peter seems to have suffered no such
emotion to hinder his attendance to the heavenly call. The
apparition, before he could exercise thought enough to sit up of
himself, had raised him up from his bed, and that without the
slightest alarm to his still slumbering keepers,――for “immediately
the chains fell from his hands,”――a motion which by the rattling of
the falling irons should have aroused the sleepers if any sound could
have impressed their senses. The impulse of the now unmanacled
captive might have been to spring forth his dungeon without the
slightest delay, but his deliverer’s next command forbade any such
unnecessary haste. His first words were, “Gird thyself; and tie on thy
sandals.” Before laying himself down, he had, as usual, thrown off
his outer garments and loosened his girdle, so that his under dress
need not so much confine him in sleep as to prevent that perfect
relaxation which is necessary for comfortable repose. Just as now-a-
days, a man in taking up such a lodging as often falls to a traveler’s
lot, will seldom do more than pull off his coat and boots, as Peter did,
and perhaps unbutton his waist-band and suspenders, so that on a
sudden alarm from his rest, the first direction would very properly be,
to “gird himself,” (button his trowsers,) “and tie on his sandals,” (put
on his shoes or boots.) The next direction given to Peter, also, “Cast
thy garment about thee,” (put on thy coat,) would be equally
appropriate. The meaning of all this particularity and deliberation
was, no doubt, that there was no need whatever of hurry or slyness
about the escape. It was not to be considered a mere smart trick of
jail-breaking, by which Peter was to crawl out of his dungeon in such
a hurry as to leave his coat and shoes behind him, but a truly
miraculous providence insuring his deliverance with a completeness
and certainty that allowed him to take every thing that belonged to
him. Having now perfectly accoutred himself in his ordinary style,
Peter immediately obeyed the next order of his deliverer,――“Follow
me.” Leaving his two bed-fellows and room-mates sleeping hard,
without the slightest idea of the evacuation of the premises which
was so deliberately going on, to their great detriment, Peter now
passed out through the open door, following the divine messenger in
a state of mind altogether indescribable, but still with just sense
enough to obey the directions which thus led him on to blissful
freedom. The whole scene bore so perfectly the character of one of
those enchanting dreams of liberty with which painful hope often
cheats the willing senses of the poor captive in slumber, that he
might well and wisely doubt the reality of an appearance so
tempting, and which his wishes would so readily suggest to his
forgetful spirit. But passing on with his conductor, he moved between
the sentinels posted at the doors, who were also equally unaware of
the movement going on so boldly under their noses, or rather over
them, for they, too, were faster bound in slumber than their prisoner
had been in his chains; and he now stepped over their outstretched
bodies as they lay before the entrances. These soldiers, too,
evidently looked upon their duty as a sort of sinecure, rationally
concluding that their two stout comrades on the inside were rather
more than a match for the fettered and manacled captive, and that if
he should be at all obstreperous, or even uneasy, the noise would
soon enough awake them from their nap. And thus excessive
precaution is very apt to overshoot itself, each part of the
arrangement relying too much on the security of all the rest. The two
passengers soon reached the great iron gate of the castle, through
which they must pass in order to enter the city. But all the seeming
difficulties of this passage vanished as soon as they approached it.
The gate swung its enormous mass of metal self-moving through the
air, and the half-entranced Peter went on beneath the vacant portal,
and now stood without the castle, once more a free man in the fresh,
pure air. The difficulties and dangers were not all over yet, however.
During all the great feast-days, when large assemblies of people
were gathered at Jerusalem from various quarters, to guard against
the danger of riots and insurrection in these motley throngs,――the
armed Roman force on duty, as Josephus relates, was doubled and
tripled, occupying several new posts around the temple, and, as the
same historian particularly mentions, on the approaches of castle
Antonia, where its foundations descended towards the terraces of
the temple, and gave access to the colonnades of the temple. On all
these places the guard must have been under arms during this
passover, and even at night the sentries would be stationed at all the
important posts, as a reasonable security against the numerous
strangers of a dubious character, who now thronged the city
throughout. Yet all these peculiar precautions, which, at this time,
presented so many additional difficulties to the escaping apostle,
hindered him not in the least. Entering the city, he followed the
footsteps of his blessed guide, unchecked, till they had passed on
through the first street, when all at once, without sign or word of
farewell, the mysterious deliverer vanished, leaving Peter alone in
the silent city, but free and safe. Then flashed upon his mind the
conviction of the true character of the apparition. The departure of
his guide leaving him to seek his own way, his senses were, by the
necessity of this self-direction, recalled from the state of
stupefaction, in which he had mechanically followed on from the
prison. With the first burst of reflection, he broke out in the
exclamation, “Now I know of a truth, that the Lord has sent forth his
messenger, and has rescued me out of the hand of Herod, in spite of
all the expectation of the Jewish people.” Refreshed and encouraged
by this impression, he now used his thoroughly awakened senses to
find his exact situation, and after looking about him, he made his way
through the dark streets to a place where he knew he should find
those whose despairing hearts would be inexpressibly rejoiced by
the news of his deliverance. This was the house of Mary, the mother
of John Mark, where the disciples were accustomed to assemble.
Going up to the gate-way, he rapped on the door, and at once
aroused those within; for in their sleepless distress for the
imprisoned apostle, several of the brethren had given up all thoughts
of sleep, and, as Peter had suspected, were now watching in prayer
within this house. The noise of a visitant at this unseasonable hour of
the night, immediately brought to the door a lively damsel, named
Rhoda; who, according to the Jewish custom of employing females
in this capacity, acted as portress of the mansion of Mary. Prudently
requiring some account of the person who made this late call, before
she opened the door of the persecuted Christians to an unknown
and perhaps an ill-disposed character, she was struck with almost
frantic joy at hearing the well-known voice of the much mourned
Peter, craving admittance. In the highth of her thoughtless gladness,
she ran off at once to make known the delightful fact to the disciples
in the house, without even seeming to think of the desirableness of
admitting the apostle, perhaps because she very naturally wanted to
tell such pleasant news first herself. Bursting into the room where the
disciples were at prayer for their lamented leader, whom they
supposed to be then fast bound for death in the dungeon of Antonia,
she communicated the joyful fact, that “Peter was before the gate.” A
declaration so extravagantly improbable, at once suggested the idea
of her having lost her wits through her affectionate sorrow for the
sufferings and anticipated death of the great apostle, and they
therefore replied, “Thou art crazy.” Rhoda, somewhat excited by
such a provoking expression of incredulity, loudly repeated her
slighted piece of good news, and so gravely maintained the truth of
it, that some of the more superstitious at last began to think there
must be something in it, and seriously suggested, that it must be a
supernatural messenger come to give them notice of his certain
doom,――“It is his guardian angel.” Peter, however, was all this
while standing outside during this grave debate about his real entity,
and shivering with the cold of a chilly March night, grew quite
impatient at the girl’s inconsiderate folly, and knocked away with
might and main, making a noise of most unspiritual character, till at
last the disciples determined to cut short the debate by an actual
observation; so opening the door to the shivering apostle, the light
brought his material existence to a certainty beyond all doubt. Their
amazement and joy was bursting forth with a vivacity which quite
made up for their previous incredulity; when the apostle, making a
hushing sign with his hand,――and with a reasonable fear, too, no
doubt, that their obstreperous congratulations might be heard in
other houses around, so as to alarm the neighbors and bring out
some spiteful Jews, who would procure his detection and
recapture,――having obtained silence, went on to give them a full
account of his being brought out of prison by the Lord, and after
finishing his wonderful story, said to them, “Tell these things to
James and the brethren.” From this it would seem that the apostles
were all somewhere else, probably having found that a temporary
concealment was expedient for their safety, but were still not far from
the city. His own personal danger was of so imminent a character,
however, that Jerusalem could not be a safe place for him during the
search that would be immediately instituted after him by his
disappointed and enraged persecutors. It was quite worth while,
therefore, for him to use the remaining darkness of the night to
complete his escape; and without staying to enjoy their outflowing
sympathies, he bade them a hasty farewell, and, as the historian
briefly says, went to another place. Where this “other place” was,
he does not pretend to tell or know, and the only certain inference to
be drawn from the circumstance is, that it was beyond the reach or
knowledge of the mighty and far-ruling king, who had taken such
particular pains to secure Peter’s death. The probabilities as to the
real place of his retirement will, however, be given, as soon as the
sequel of events in Jerusalem has been narrated, as far as concerns
the discovery of his escape.
Bright light.――Some commentators have attempted to make out an explanation of this

phenomenon, by referring the whole affair to the effects of a sudden flash and stroke of
lightning, falling on the castle, and striking all the keepers senseless,――melting Peter’s
chains, and illuminating the place, so that Peter, unhurt amid the general crash, saw this
opportunity for escaping, and stepping over their prostrate bodies, made his way out of the
prison, and was out of sight before they came to. The most important objection to this
ingenious speculation is, that it directly contradicts every verse in Luke’s account of the
escape, as well as the general spirit of the narrative. Another weighty reason is, that the
whole series of natural causes and effects, proposed as a substitute for the simple
meaning, is brought together in such forced and uncommon coincidences, as to require a
much greater effort of faith and credulity for its belief, than the miraculous view, which it
quite transcends in incredibility. The introduction of explanations of miracles by natural
phenomena, is justifiable only so far as these may illustrate the accompaniments of the
event, by showing the mode in which those things which are actually mentioned as physical
results, operated in producing the impressions described. Thus, when thunder and lightning
are mentioned in connection with miraculous events, they are to be considered as real
electrical discharges, made to accompany and manifest the presence of God; and where
lambent flames are described as appearing in a storm, they, like the corpos santos, are
plainly also results of electrical discharges. So too, when mighty winds are mentioned, they
are most honestly taken to be real winds, and not deceptive sounds or impressions; and
when a cloud is mentioned, it is but fair to consider it a real cloud, made up, like all other
clouds, of vapor, and not a mere non-entity, or a delusion existing only in the minds of those
who are mentioned as beholding it. But where nothing of this kind is spoken of, and where a
distinct personal presence is plainly declared, the attempt to substitute a physical accident
for such an apparition, is a direct attack on the honesty of the statement. Such attempts,
too, are devoid of the benefits of such illustrations as I have alluded to as desirable; they
bring in a new set of difficulties with them, without removing any of those previously
obstructing the interpretation of the facts. In this case, the only circumstance which could be
reasonably made to agree with the idea of lightning, is the mention of the bright light; while
throughout the whole account, the presence of a supernaturally mysterious person, acting
and speaking, is perfectly unquestionable. The violation of all probability, shown in this
forced explanation, will serve as a fair instance of the mode in which many modern German
critics are in the habit of distorting the simple, manifest sense of the sacred writers, for the
sake of dispensing with all supernatural occurrences. (See Kuinoel for an enlarged view and
discussion of this opinion. Other views of the nature of the phenomenon are also given by
him, and by Rosenmueller, on Acts xii. 7.)
Morning dawned at last upon the towers and temple-columns of

the Holy City. On the gold-sheeted roofs and snowy-pillared
colonnades of the house of God, the sunlight poured with a splendor
hardly more glorious than the insupportable brilliancy that was sent
back from their dazzling surfaces, streaming like a new morning
upon the objects around, whose nearer sides would otherwise have
been left in shade by the eastern rays. Castle Antonia shared in this
general illumination, and at the first blaze of sunrise, the order of
Roman service announced the moment for relieving guard. The
bustle of the movement of the new sentries towards their stands,
must at last have reached the ears of Peter’s forsaken companions.
Their first waking thoughts would of course be on their responsible
charge, and they now became for the first time aware of the
important deficiency. In vain did their heavy eyes, at first winking with
sleepiness, but now wide open with amazement, search the dim
vacancy for their eloped bed-fellow. The most inquisitive glance fell
only on the blank space between them, scarcely blanker than the
forlorn visages of the poor keepers, who saw in this disappearance
the seal of their certain death, for having let the prisoner escape. But
they had not much time to consider their misfortune, or condole upon
it; for the change of sentries now brought to the door the quaternion
whose turn on duty came next. With a miserable grace did the
unhappy occupants of the cell show themselves at the open door,
with the empty chains and fetters dangling at their sides, from which
their late companion had so curiously slipped. Most uncomfortable
must have been the aspect of things to the two sentinels who had
been keeping their steady watch outside of the door, and who shared
equally with the inside keepers, in the undesirable responsibilities of
this accident. There stood their comrades with the useless chains
displayed in their original attachments; but, amazing! what in the
world had they done with the prisoner? The ludicrous distress and
commotion resulting from this unpleasant revelation, was evidently
well appreciated even by the sacred historian, whose brief but pithy
expression is not without a latent comic force. “There was no small
stir among the soldiers to know what was become of Peter.” A
general search into all the holes and corners of the dungeon, of
course, ensued; and the castle was no doubt ransacked from top to
bottom for the runaway, whose escape from its massive gates
seemed still impossible. But not even his cloak and sandals, which
he had laid beside him at the last change of guards,――not a shred,
not a thread had been left to hint at the mode of his abstraction. Yet
this was so bad a story for the ears of the royal Agrippa, that it would
not do to give up the search while any chance whatever remained.
But all rummaging was perfectly fruitless; and with sorrowful hearts,
they now went with their report to the vindictive king, to acknowledge
that most unpardonable crime in Roman soldiers,――to have slept
on their posts, so that a prisoner of state had escaped on the eve of
execution.
Baronius, (Church Annuals, 44, § 8,) speaking of Peter’s escape from his chains, favors
us with a solemn statement of the important and interesting circumstance, deriving the
proofs from Metaphrastes, (that prince of papistical liars, and grand source of Romish
apostolical fables,) that these very chains of Peter are still preserved at Rome, among other
venerable relics of equal authenticity; having been faithfully preserved, and at last found
after the lapse of four hundred years. The veritable history of this miraculous preservation,
as given by the inventive Metaphrastes, is, that the said chains happened to fall into the
hands of one of Agrippa’s servants who was a believer in Christ, and so were handed down
for four centuries, and at last brought to light. It is lamentable that the list of the various
persons through whose hands they passed, is not given, though second in importance only
to the authentic record of the papal succession. This impudent and paltry falsehood will
serve as a fair specimen of a vast quantity of such stuff, which litters up the pages of even
the sober ecclesiastical histories of many papistical writers. The only wonderful thing to me
about this story is, that Cave has not given it a place in his Lives of the Apostles, which are
made up with so great a portion of similar trash.
Baronius, in connection with this passage, suggests the castle of Antonia as the most
probable place of Peter’s confinement. “Juxta templum fortasse in ea munitissima turri quae
dicebatur Antonia.” (Baronius, Church Annuals, C. 44, § 5.) A conjecture which certainly
adds some weight to my own supposition to that effect; although I did not discover the
coincidence in time to mention it in my note on page 194.
Meanwhile, with the early day, up rose the royal Agrippa from his
purple couch, to seize the first moment after the close of the
passover for the consummation of the doom of the wretched
Galilean, who, by the royal decree, must now yield the life already
too many days spared, out of delicate scruple about the inviolate
purity of that holy week. Up rose also the saintly princes of the
Judaic law, coming forth in their solemn trains and broad
phylacteries, to grace this most religious occasion with their reverend
presence, out of respectful gratitude to their great sovran for his
considerate disposition to accord the sanction of his absolute secular
power to their religious sentence. Expectation stood on tiptoe for the
comfortable spectacle of the streaming life-blood of this stubborn
leader of the Nazarene heresy, and nothing was wanting to the
completion of the ceremony, but the criminal himself. That
“desideratum, so much to be desired,” was, however, not so easily
supplied; for the entrance of the delinquent sentinels now presented
the non-est-inventus return to the solemn summons for the body of
their prisoner. Confusion thrice confounded now fell on the faces that
were just shining with anticipated triumph over their hated foe, while
secret, scornful joy illuminated the countenances of the oppressed
friends of Jesus. But on the devoted minions of the baffled king, did
his disappointed vengeance fall most cruelly; in his paroxysm of
vexation, and for an event wholly beyond their control they now
suffered an undeserved death; making so tragical a catastrophe to a
story otherwise decidedly comical, that the reader can only comfort
himself with the belief that they were a set of insolent reprobates
who had insulted the distresses of their frequent victims, and would
have rejoiced in the bloody execution of the apostle.
King Herod Agrippa, after this miserable failure in his attempt to

“please the Jews,” does not seem to have made a very long stay in
Jerusalem. Before his departure, however, to secure his own solid
glory and his kingdom’s safety, as well as the favor of his subjects,
he not only continued the repairs of the temple, but instituted such
improvements in the fortifications of the city, as, if ever completed,
would have made it utterly impregnable even to a Roman force; so
that the emperor’s jealousy soon compelled him to abandon this
work; and soon after he left Jerusalem, and went down to Caesarea
Augusta, on the sea-coast, long the seat of government of Palestine,
and a more agreeable place for the operations of a Gentile court and
administration, (for such Agrippa’s must have been from his Roman
residence,) than the punctilious religious capital of Judea. But he
was not allowed to remain much longer on the earth, to hinder the
progress of the truth, by acts of tyranny in subservience to the base
purposes of winning the favor of his more powerful subjects. The
hand of God was laid destroyingly on him, in the midst of what

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Numerical and Statistical Methods for

Civil Engineering Gujarat Technological

Mukul Bhatt is presently Assistant Professor, Department of

McGraw Hill Education (India) Private Limited

McGraw Hill Education Offices

Visit us at: www.mheducation.co.in

Late Shri Ved Prakash Sharma

3.8 Standard Deviation 3.52

6.14 Newton’s Divided Difference Formula 6.71

Ramesh S Damor L D College of Engineering, Ahmedabad

Som Sahni Babaria Institute of Technology, Vadodara

Module 2: Probability Distributions

Module 3: Descriptive Statistics

Module 4: Correlation and Regression

Module 5: Curve Fitting

Module 6: Finite Differences and Interpolation

Module 7: Numerical Integration

Module 8: Solution of a System of Linear Equations

Module 9: Roots of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations

Module 10: Numerical Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations

1.2 Some Important termS and conceptS

1. random experiment If an experiment is conducted, any number of times,

2. outcome The result of a random experiment is called an outcome. For example,

(a) Tossing of a coin is a trial, and getting a head or tail is an event.

(a) In tossing a coin, head or tail are equally likely events.

8. Favourable events The favourable events in a random experiment are the

1.3 deFInItIonS oF probabILIty

1.3.1 Classical Definition of Probability

1.3.2 Empirical or Statistical Definition of Probability

1.3.3 Axiomatic Definition of Probability

Definition of Probability Let S be a sample space of an experiment and A be

Axiom I: P(A) ≥ 0, i.e., the probability of an event is a nonnegative number.

Let A be the event of getting 53 Sundays in a leap year.

(v) Let E be the event of getting two heads in succession.

1. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability

4. A ball is drawn at random from a box containing 12 red, 18 white, 19 blue,

6. If four persons are chosen from a group of 3 men, 2 women, and 4

9. A four-digit number is to be formed using the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. All the

10. 3 books of physics, 4 books of chemistry, and 5 books of mathematics

12. A committee of 4 is to be formed from 15 boys and 3 girls. Find the

1.4 theoremS on probabILIty

theorem 1 The probability of an impossible event is zero, i.e., P(f) = 0, where f

For a sample space S of an experiment,

Since S and f are mutually exclusive events,

theorem 3 For any two events A and B in a sample space S,

Proof From the Venn diagram (Fig. 1.1),

theorem 4 Additive Law of Probability (Addition Theorem)

Proof From the Venn diagram (Fig. 1.1),

P( A » B) = P( A) + P( A « B) [Using Axiom III]

1. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, i.e., A « B = f then P(A « B) = 0

where P( A « B ) is the probability that none of the events A and B occur

Corollary 2 P(Exactly one of A and B occurs) = P ÈÎ( A « B ) » ( A « B)˘˚

Corollary 5 The probability of occurrence of exactly two of the three events is

Corollary 6 The probability of occurrence of exactly one of the three events is

P( A) = 0.7, P ( B ) = 0.5, P ( A » B ) = 0.6

Probability that the card drawn is a king or a heart or a red card.

2. What is the probability of drawing a black card or a king from a well-

4. From a pack of well-shuffled cards, a card is drawn at random. What is

7. From a group of 6 boys and 4 girls, a committee of 3 is to be formed. Find

9. From a set of 16 cards numbered 1 to 16, one card is drawn at random.

theorem 5 Multiplicative Law or Compound Law of Probability

P( A) = P( A « B) + P( A « B ) [Using Axiom III]

Corollary 1 If A, B and C are three events then