Professional Documents
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03 Phan Tich Dau Tu Nang Cao - Tam Ly Dau Tu Va Hanh Vi Tai Chinh
03 Phan Tich Dau Tu Nang Cao - Tam Ly Dau Tu Va Hanh Vi Tai Chinh
• Tâm lý đầu tư
• Tâm lý nhà đầu tư
• Tâm lý và hành vi người tiêu dùng
• Tài chính hành vi
• Lý thuyết triển vọng: Phân tích quyết định có rủi ro
• Chẩn đoán hành vi và thành kiến trong việc ra quyết định
• Hành vi bầy đàn trong tài chính
4
Tâm lý nhà
đầu tư
5
Source: https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
6
Cboe
VIX (Chỉ số biến động)
Một chỉ số về biến động thị trường dự kiến
82.69
9.14
Source:https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/
7
Source: Min-Yuh Day and Yensen Ni (2023), "Be greedy when others are fearful: Evidence from a two-decade assessment of the NDX 100 and S&P 500 indexes",
International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 90, November 2023, 102856.
8
Tâm lý và hành vi
người tiêu dùng
9
Source: Philip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, 14th ed., Pearson, 2012
10
Source: http://bitcoinist.com/fintech-impact-consumer-behavior-mobile-payments/
11
Hành vi sai trái: Sự hình thành của kinh tế học hành vi,
W. W. Norton & Company
Richard H.
Thaler
Source: https://www.amazon.com/Misbehaving-Behavioral-Economics-Richard-Thaler/dp/039335279X
13
Source: https://www.amazon.com/Behavioral-Finance-Understanding-Cognitive-Economic/dp/111830019X
14
Source: https://www.amazon.com/Behavioral-Finance-Psychology-Decision-Making-Markets/dp/0324661177
15
Source: https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Greed-Fear-Understanding-Association/dp/0195304217
16
Source: https://www.amazon.com/Inefficient-Markets-Introduction-Behavioral-Clarendon/dp/0198292279
17
Source: https://www.amazon.com/Investor-Behavior-Psychology-Financial-Investing/dp/1118492986
18
Tiếp thị
“Đáp ứng
nhu cầu
một cách có lợi”
Source: Philip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, 14th ed., Pearson, 2012
19
Giá trị
tổng của
lợi ích và chi phí
hữu hình và vô hình
Source: Philip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, 14th ed., Pearson, 2012
20
Giá trị
Total
customer
benefit
Customer
perceived
value
Total
customer
cost
Source: Philip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, 14th ed., Pearson, 2012
21
Total
Services benefit
customer
Personnel benefit benefit
Image benefit Customer
perceived
Tâm lý
Mua hàng
Kích thích Kích thích Quyết định
• Motivation Quá trình
tiếp thị khác • Perception mua hàng
• Learning quyết định
• Memory
• Problem
• Products & Recognition
Services • Economic • Product choice
• Information
• Price • Technological • Brand choice
Search
• Distribution • Political • Dealer choice
• Evaluation of
• Communication • Cultural • Purchase amount
Alternatives
s Đặc điểm • Purchase
• Purchase timing
người tiêu dùng • Payment method
decision
• Post-purchase
behavior
• Cultural
• Social
• Personal
Source: Philip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, 14th ed., Pearson, 2012
23
Xây dựng
giá trị khách hàng,
sự hài lòng và
lòng trung thành
Source: Philip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, 14th ed., Pearson, 2012
24
Kỳ vọng của
khách hàng
Source: Philip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller, Marketing Management, 14th ed., Pearson, 2012
25
Lý thuyết hành
động hợp lý
(TRA)
Source: Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory
and Research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
TRA
(1975)
Source: Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory
and Research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. 26
TRA
(1989)
Lý thuyết hành vi
có kế hoạch (TPB)
Source: Ajzen, I., (1985) “From Intentions to Actions: A Theory of Planned Behavior,” in J. Kuhl and J. Beckmann
(Eds.) Action Control: From Cognition to behavior, Springer Verlag, New york, 1985, pp.11-39.
TPB
(1985)
Ajzen, I., (1985) “From Intentions to Actions: A Theory of Planned Behavior,” in J. Kuhl and J. Beckmann (Eds.)
Action Control: From Cognition to behavior, Springer Verlag, New york, 1985, pp.11-39. 29
TPB
(1989)
Ajzen, I., (1989) “Attitude Structure and Behavior,” in A. R. Pratkanis, S. J. Breckler, and A. G. Greenwald(Eds.),
Attitude Structure and Function, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ, 1989, pp.241-274. 30
TPB
(1991)
Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,
50, 179-211. 31
http://www.people.umass.edu/aizen/index.html 32
33
Mô hình chấp
nhận công nghệ
(TAM)
Source: Davis,F.D.,R.P.Bagozzi and P.R.Warshaw,“User acceptance of computer technology : A
comparison of two theoretical models ”,Management Science,35(8),August 1989,pp.982-1003
TAM
(1989)
Venkatesh, V., & Davis, F. D. (2000) “A theoretical extension of the technology acceptance model: Four
longitudinal field studies”, Management Science, 46(2), pp. 186-204. 35
36
Tài chính
hành vi
37
Hành vi hợp lý
Hành vi phi lý
38
Cảm xúc
Tình cảm
39
Source: Barberis, Nicholas, and Richard Thaler. "A survey of behavioral finance." Handbook of the Economics of Finance 1 (2003): 1053-1128.
41
Source: Hersh Shefrin (2007), “Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing”,
Oxford University Press.
42
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
46
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
47
Prospect Theory
(Kahneman and Tversky, 1979)
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
48
Ra quyết định
trong điều kiện
rủi ro
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
49
• A:
• 50% chance to win 1,000,
• B:
• 450 for sure.
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
50
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
51
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
52
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
53
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
54
Expected Utility
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
55
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
56
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
57
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
58
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
59
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
60
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
61
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
62
Sự chắc chắn,
xác suất và khả
năng
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
63
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
64
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
65
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
66
Bài 10 dưới dạng cây quyết định (công thức tuần tự)
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
67
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
68
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
69
Decision
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
70
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
71
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
72
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
73
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
74
Source: Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk."
Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
75
Source: Edwin Burton and Sunit N. Shah (2013), “Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates”, Wiley.
77
Source: Edwin Burton and Sunit N. Shah (2013), “Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates”, Wiley.
78
Source: Edwin Burton and Sunit N. Shah (2013), “Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates”, Wiley.
79
Source: Edwin Burton and Sunit N. Shah (2013), “Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates”, Wiley.
80
Source: Edwin Burton and Sunit N. Shah (2013), “Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates”, Wiley.
81
Source: Edwin Burton and Sunit N. Shah (2013), “Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates”, Wiley.
82
Ảo tưởng
• Ảo tưởng về tài năng
• Ảo tưởng về kỹ năng
• Ảo tưởng về sự vượt trội
• Ảo tưởng về tính xác thực
Source: Edwin Burton and Sunit N. Shah (2013), “Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates”, Wiley.
Tài chính hành vi:
83
Trọng tài
Source: http://www.beliefnet.com/columnists/moviemom/2012/09/interview-nicholas-jarecki-of-arbitrage.html
85
Trọng tài
$100
Sell High in Market B
Heuristics
• Quá tự tin
• mọi người đánh giá quá cao độ tin cậy của kiến thức của họ.
• Giao dịch quá mức
• Hiệu ứng nhà kín
87
Heuristics
• Hối hận ác cảm
• Dự đoán về một sự hối tiếc trong tương lai có thể ảnh hưởng đến quyết định hiện tại.
• Hiệu ứng bố cục
• Bán người thắng, giữ người thua.
• Neo và điều chỉnh: có thể tạo ra phản ứng dưới mức.
88
Source: https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/article/confirmation-bias-it-s-not-what-we-think-we-know-that-counts
91
The Your
Facts Beliefs
Overvalued
Source: Robert A. Strong (2004), Practical Investment Management, South-Western
92
A A&B B
Personal
Economic Economic
Characteristic
Conditions Behavior
s
(E) (P) (B)
Source: Van Raaij, W. Fred. "Economic psychology." Journal of Economic Psychology 1, no. 1 (1981): 1-24.
Tóm tắt
94
• Tâm lý đầu tư
• Tâm lý nhà đầu tư
• Tâm lý và hành vi người tiêu dùng
• Tài chính hành vi
• Lý thuyết triển vọng: Phân tích quyết định có rủi ro
• Chẩn đoán hành vi và thành kiến trong việc ra quyết định
• Hành vi bầy đàn trong tài chính
95
References
• Yves Hilpisch (2020), Artificial Intelligence in Finance: A Python-Based Guide, O’Reilly Media.
• Aurélien Géron (2019), Hands-On Machine Learning with Scikit-Learn, Keras, and TensorFlow: Concepts, Tools, and Techniques to Build Intelligent Systems, 2nd Edition, O’Reilly
Media.
• Yves Hilpisch (2018), Python for Finance: Mastering Data-Driven Finance, 2nd Edition, O'Reilly Media.
• Paolo Sironi (2016), “FinTech Innovation: From Robo-Advisors to Goal Based Investing and Gamification”, Wiley.
• Chris Kelliher (2022), Quantitative Finance With Python: A Practical Guide to Investment Management, Trading, and Financial Engineering, Chapman and Hall/CRC.
• Susanne Chishti and Janos Barberis (2016), “The FINTECH Book: The Financial Technology Handbook for Investors, Entrepreneurs and Visionaries”, Wiley.
• Richard H. Thaler (2016), Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics, W. W. Norton & Company
• Lucy Ackert and Richard Deaves (2009), “Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets”, South-Western College Pub.
• Hersh Shefrin (2007), “Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing”, Oxford University Press.
• Edwin Burton and Sunit N. Shah (2013), “Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Social, Cognitive, and Economic Debates”, Wiley.
• Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (1979), "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk." Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society (1979): 263-291.
• Day, M. Y., & Ni, Y. (2023). Be greedy when others are fearful: Evidence from a two-decade assessment of the NDX 100 and S&P 500 indexes. International Review of Financial
Analysis, 90, 102856.
• Manahov, V. (2021). Cryptocurrency liquidity during extreme price movements: is there a problem with virtual money? Quantitative Finance, 21(2), 341-360.
• Gavrilakis, N., & Floros, C. (2023). ESG performance, herding behavior and stock market returns: evidence from Europe. Operational Research, 23(1), 3.
• Hsieh, S. F., Chan, C. Y., & Wang, M. C. (2020). Retail investor attention and herding behavior. Journal of Empirical Finance, 59, 109-132.
• Christoffersen, J., & Staehr, S. (2019). Individual risk tolerance and herding behaviors in financial forecasts. European Financial Management, 25(5), 1348-1377.
• Frijns, B., & Huynh, T. D. (2018). Herding in analysts' recommendations: The role of media. Journal of Banking & Finance, 91, 1-18.
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