Threats to the Elements of National Power of Pakistan

Introduction

In the intricate landscape of global geopolitics, nations stand as complex entities, each endowed
with a unique set of attributes that collectively form their national power. The concept of national
power encompasses various elements, including military strength, economic vitality, diplomatic
influence, and societal cohesion. For Pakistan, a nation positioned at the crossroads of South
Asia, the challenges and opportunities that shape its national power are manifold.

This research paper aims to delve into the multifaceted challenges that jeopardize the elements of
national power in Pakistan. From security concerns to economic vulnerabilities, diplomatic
intricacies to societal complexities, a comprehensive examination of these threats will provide a
nuanced understanding of the current landscape and inform potential strategies for safeguarding
and enhancing Pakistan's national power.

Purpose of the Study

The purpose of this study is to comprehensively analyze and understand the threats to the
elements of national power in Pakistan. The elements of national power encompass military
strength, economic vitality, diplomatic influence, societal cohesion, technological advancements,
energy security, and environmental sustainability. By identifying and examining the challenges
faced by Pakistan across these dimensions, the study aims to provide insights into the intricate
dynamics that shape the nation's overall standing on the global stage.

Brief overview of Pakistan's national power

Pakistan's national power is a composite of various elements that collectively determine its
standing on the global stage. These elements include military strength, economic prowess,
diplomatic influence, and societal stability. Understanding the dynamics of each component
provides insight into Pakistan's overall national power.

Military Strength

Pakistan maintains a significant military capability, including a well-equipped army, air force,
and navy. The country possesses nuclear weapons, adding a dimension of strategic deterrence to
its defense posture. The military plays a crucial role not only in safeguarding the nation's borders
but also in shaping its regional and global influence.
Economic Vitality

Pakistan's economy is diverse, with key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services
contributing to its GDP. Challenges such as fiscal deficits, inflation, and external debt, however,
impact economic stability. Strategic economic partnerships and initiatives, such as the China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), aim to bolster infrastructure and enhance economic
connectivity.

Diplomatic Influence

Pakistan engages in diplomacy to safeguard its national interests and maintain regional and
international partnerships. The country's foreign policy is shaped by its relationships with
neighboring countries, particularly India and Afghanistan, as well as its alliances with global
players like China and the United States.

Societal Cohesion

The strength and stability of Pakistan's society are integral to its national power. A diverse
population with various ethnic, linguistic, and cultural backgrounds poses both opportunities and
challenges. Societal cohesion is influenced by factors such as education, healthcare, governance,
and social harmony.

Technological Advancements

Investments in science and technology contribute to Pakistan's national power by fostering

innovation and enhancing capabilities in various fields, including telecommunications, space
exploration, and cyber security.

Energy Security

Ensuring a stable and secure energy supply is vital for economic development. Pakistan faces
challenges related to energy shortages and seeks to address them through various initiatives,
including the development of renewable energy sources.

Environmental Sustainability

Environmental challenges, including water scarcity and climate change, can impact national
security and societal well-being. Addressing these issues is crucial for ensuring long-term
sustainability and resilience.

Understanding the interplay of these elements is essential for comprehending the dynamics of
Pakistan's national power. The country's ability to navigate challenges and leverage its strengths
in each dimension contributes to its overall standing in the international arena. Analyzing the
threats to these elements provides valuable insights for policymakers and scholars aiming to
formulate strategies that enhance and safeguard Pakistan's national power.
Identify and Analyze Threats

Pakistan faces a myriad of threats across various elements of its national power. In terms of
military threats, longstanding tensions with India, especially concerning the Kashmir region,
persist, posing a continuous risk to security. Additionally, the presence of non-state actors and
insurgent groups along the western border contributes to the complexity of security challenges.
On the economic front, Pakistan grapples with fiscal deficits and a substantial external debt
burden, which can potentially impede economic stability and development. (Cheema, 2018)

Diplomatically, strained relations with neighboring countries, such as India and Afghanistan, can
limit the effectiveness of foreign policy initiatives. Societal threats include ethnic and sectarian
tensions, as well as the challenges associated with managing a diverse population. In the face of
these multifaceted challenges, a comprehensive understanding of the threats to each element of
national power is essential for policymakers to formulate effective strategies that can fortify
Pakistan's resilience and enhance its global standing. (Malik, 2021)

Elements of National Power and Threats

1- Military Power

Pakistan's military strength stands as a cornerstone of the nation's security apparatus, reflecting a
complex and capable force that plays a pivotal role in the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia.
The Pakistani military comprises the Army, Navy, and Air Force, and is equipped with a diverse
range of conventional and strategic capabilities. Notably, Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state,
possessing a credible nuclear deterrent that contributes to regional stability. The military has
historically played a central role in domestic politics, and its influence extends beyond traditional
defense responsibilities. (Shabbir, 2023)

With a focus on maintaining a robust defense posture, Pakistan's military has invested in
modernizing its forces, enhancing its conventional capabilities, and incorporating technological
advancements. The intricate interplay between military, diplomatic, and geopolitical factors
underscores the significance of Pakistan's military strength in shaping the country's security
landscape and its standing in the international arena.

The Rise of Cyber Crime in Pakistan: A Threat to National Security

Non-traditional dangers are less of a concern as we approach the new century compared
to those that are already well-established. The danger presented by cyberspace is unprecedented
and unheard of, despite the fact that it is rapidly spreading across the globe. The so-called
“information age “has only just begun, yet there is already the potential for theft of data and
information in both digital and physical forms.

According to our research, nations across the globe such as Russia, China, India, and the United
States (which also have an impact in south Asian countries such as Iran and Iraq) are more
advanced in cyber space technology. It is common knowledge that the government of
Pakistan is concentrating its efforts, under the National Action Plan(NAP), on combating
terrorism and extremism. Pakistan did not give the growing non-traditional danger known as
“cyber warfare “any consideration. In Pakistan, the number of cases of cyber-crime is
continuously increasing. There are 15 million people using mobile phones and 30 million
people using the internet in Pakistan. (Imran, 2022)

i- Geo-Strategic Constraints to National Security of Pakistan

From both traditional and non-traditional security perspectives, Pakistan has been confronted
with threats emanating from both internal and external actors. Since its inception, Pakistan has
been confronted with external threats on its eastern and western borders. On its east, sharing a
2912 km long boarder, India posed unprecedented threats. Pakistan shares a disputed porous
2430 km Durand line with Afghanistan on its West. Pakistan and China have also a 523 km
shared border. Similarly, Pak-Iran border is 909 km long. Due to the peculiar geo-strategic,
global strategic cultural components; cold war, uni-polar world, Sino-US new cold war eruption,
Under the competitive strategic environment, security priorities of Pakistan have always been
found dynamic and undergone through various national security priorities however, a
comprehensive consensus based national security policy has never been seriously considered.
(Hafeez, 2012)

ii- Global Strategic Constraints

Cold War Security Priorities: During the Cold War era, Pakistan has caught in strategic
competition between two opposing ideologies (capitalism and communism). The then leaders
tended to support western powers and entered into defense pacts like South East Asia Treaty
Organization (SEATO) and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO). US and Pakistan spy
agencies trained the students of religious seminaries (Madaris), indoctrinated Muslim youth from
across the globe with the spirit of holy war (jihad), and provided arms and money to them against
Soviets. (Sahar, 2012)

Post -Cold War till 9/11 Episode: The United States withdrew from Afghanistan after the
collapse of former Soviet Union. With the withdrawal of American troops and lack of any post-
Soviet Union defeat strategy, civil war broke out among various Afghan factions which finally
lead to imposition of Taliban Government in 1996. The repercussions of US war in Afghanistan
has massively impacted Pakistan's security paradigm.

iii- Regional Strategic Constraints

Indian factor and Kashmir Issue: Kashmir is a disputed issue between Pakistan and India
resulted due to notorious Redcliff Award. Pakistan has supported the indigenous freedom
movement in Indian occupied Kashmir started in 1989 against Indian atrocities. Various freedom
fighting groups like Harkat-Ul-Mujahideen, Jaish-i-Muhammad and Lashkar-i-Tayba started
guerrilla warfare against the Indian troops. From 1947 to 1999 Pakistan and India fought 4 wars
over Kashmir. After the September 11, 2001 India found an opportunity to start propaganda
against the indigenous movement for self-determination in Kashmir and equate it with terrorism.

Indian Offensive Defense Policy: The ultimate designs behind this doctrine were the use of
offensive or pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan under the shadow of nuclear weapons. Through
this doctrine all three armed services will launch an integrated strike without employing nuclear
weapons. Indian offensive war doctrine was seriously taken into account among the policy
makers and military leadership in Pakistan, resulting in redefining warfighting concepts for
Pakistan. The Instability in Afghanistan:

iv- Unrest in Baluchistan

Baluchistan has the strategic importance the country due to its geostrategic significance. The
Gwadar Port and execution China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through the
province has furthered its significance and given an internationalized strategic importance. Many
external hands are involved to destabilize Baluchistan by exploiting the sentiments of the
dissident groups in Baluchistan.

v- Pakistan’s Nuclear Capability: A Thorn in eyes of USA

The conventional preponderance of India and discriminatory global nuclear nonproliferation

regime left the strategic policy makers in Pakistan with no option except to acquire nuclear
weapons to strengthen its defense capability and to ensure minimum nuclear deterrence
capability. Washington has always targeted Pakistan’s nuclear program by imposing economic
and military sanctions on Pakistan as retaliation against Pakistan’s nuclear program. Military
sanctions were lifted after Pakistan joined the US lead war on terror in 2001, however, recently
US government under Donald Trump has frozen military aid to Pakistan.

2- Economic Challenges of Pakistan

The economic condition of Pakistan is fragile. It remained challenging since its birth. From the
last 69 years, the economic environment is affected by various domestic and global factors,
which not only pressurizing the state from above but from below as well. Resultantly, the
economy moved towards a substantial decline in all the areas. At present overall economic
progress is slow. Inflation is nearer to double digit, there is deficit in balance of payment, the
state usually facing low level of foreign reserves and increased public debt. (Saeed, 2017)

For overhauling the economy, a strong psychological and physical policy is required which show
the ability to reduce the risk of bankruptcy and save the homeland, citizen and their way of life.
Threats to economic stability

o Fiscal Deficits: Persistent fiscal deficits, where government expenditures exceed

revenues, posed a challenge to economic stability. Addressing these deficits was essential
to control inflation and maintain macroeconomic equilibrium.

o External Debt Burden: Pakistan had been grappling with a significant external debt
burden, requiring careful debt management strategies to avoid debt distress. High levels
of external debt can limit fiscal space and impact the country's creditworthiness.

o Inflationary Pressures: Inflation remained a concern, affecting the purchasing power of

citizens and influencing economic decision-making. Managing inflationary pressures
required a balanced approach to monetary policy and economic reforms.

o Balance of Payments: Maintaining a stable balance of payments, particularly in the face

of trade imbalances, was crucial. Ensuring a sustainable trade position required efforts to
boost exports, reduce import dependencies, and attract foreign exchange inflows.

o Political Instability: Political uncertainties and governance challenges could contribute to

economic instability by affecting investor confidence, policy continuity, and the
implementation of structural reforms.

o Energy Shortages: Persistent energy shortages and an overreliance on non-renewable

energy sources posed a threat to economic activities. Addressing these shortages was
essential for sustained economic growth and industrial development.

o Security Concerns: Ongoing security challenges, both internal and external, could disrupt
economic activities and deter foreign investment. Stability in border regions and effective
counterterrorism measures were crucial for economic growth.

o Global Economic Uncertainties: Pakistan's economy was influenced by global

economic trends and uncertainties. External factors such as changes in commodity prices,
global trade dynamics, and geopolitical events could impact economic stability.

3- Political Power

In the case of Pakistan, geography has contributed to the challenge of governing parts of the
country. The mountainous character of Baluchistan, KPK and the extended desert areas in
southern Punjab, eastern Sindh and parts of Baluchistan, pose significant challenges to transport,
communication, the delivery of goods and services, and the provision of administration and
security. Historically, the state has been less able and probably also less willing to deliver basic
services to these remote and sparsely populated areas – even though it extracts significant
resource wealth from some of these regions. They remain the poorest and most marginal parts of
the country, and are also the regions in which the state’s authority is most directly challenged.
Influence of internal and external factors

The influence of internal and external factors plays a pivotal role in shaping the threats to the
elements of national power in Pakistan. Internally, factors such as political instability, economic
challenges, and societal tensions can pose significant threats. Political dynamics, including
governance issues and power struggles, may impact policy continuity and hinder effective
decision-making. (Safdar, 2004)

Externally, regional geopolitics and international relations contribute to the complexity of threats
faced by Pakistan. Relations with neighboring countries, particularly India and Afghanistan,
along with broader global dynamics, influence diplomatic challenges and potential security
threats. The interplay of internal and external factors creates a dynamic landscape, necessitating
a comprehensive understanding of these influences for policymakers to formulate strategies that
address and mitigate the multifaceted threats to Pakistan's national power elements.

Threats to political stability

Political stability in Pakistan faces a spectrum of threats emanating from both internal and
external factors. Domestically, persistent challenges such as political polarization, governance
issues, and institutional tensions can undermine the stability of the political system. Frequent
changes in government and power struggles among political factions contribute to a lack of
policy continuity, hindering effective governance. Additionally, issues related to corruption,
accountability, and rule of law can erode public trust in institutions, exacerbating political
instability.

Terrorism and Insurgency

Terrorism and insurgency have been longstanding challenges for Pakistan, impacting its security
landscape, societal well-being, and international standing. The country has grappled with various
extremist groups and insurgencies, stemming from both domestic and external sources. The
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the border regions with Afghanistan have been
particularly vulnerable to militancy, serving as a sanctuary for various terrorist organizations.

Internally, groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and sectarian outfits have posed
significant threats to the stability of the country. These groups often target security forces,
civilians, and religious minorities, contributing to a complex security environment. The military
operations, particularly Operation Zarb-e-Azb, aimed to counteract these threats and eliminate
militant strongholds.

Externally, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region has been a hotbed for cross-border terrorism,
with elements of the Afghan Taliban finding refuge in Pakistani territories, contributing to
tensions between the two neighboring countries (Salik, 2019). The complex geopolitics of the
region, including the influence of external actors, further exacerbate the challenges faced by
Pakistan in countering terrorism and insurgency.

Efforts to address these issues have involved a combination of military operations, intelligence
cooperation, and international collaboration. The National Action Plan (NAP) was introduced to
counter terrorism comprehensively, focusing on areas such as countering financing for terrorists,
addressing hate speech and extremism, and enhancing intelligence coordination.

Policy suggestions for addressing threats

Addressing the multifaceted threats to Pakistan's national power requires a comprehensive policy
framework that spans various domains. Firstly, in the realm of security and military, the country
should prioritize the enhancement of counterterrorism measures through improved intelligence
capabilities and inter-agency coordination. Simultaneously, investing in modern border security
technology and personnel training is vital to safeguard against illegal activities and infiltration.
On the economic front, the government should implement disciplined fiscal policies to reduce
deficits and encourage economic diversification to build a resilient economy.

In the technological domain, investments in research and development, along with education and
training programs, are crucial to keep pace with advancements, particularly in cybersecurity.
Energy security can be bolstered by diversifying the energy mix and enhancing infrastructure
development. Environmental sustainability requires the implementation and enforcement of
robust regulations to address climate change and ensure sustainable development.

For political stability, governance reforms should be prioritized, including measures to enhance
transparency, accountability, and the rule of law, while encouraging inclusive political dialogue
to reduce polarization. These policy suggestions, when integrated and implemented with
flexibility, can contribute to mitigating threats and fostering resilience across the various
elements of Pakistan's national power.
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