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Handbook of seismic risk analysis and 3
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Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

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Handbook of seismic
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risk analysis and

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S. Tesfamariam and K. Goda 20

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Oxford Cambridge Philadelphia New Delhi 43 K

1 Published by Woodhead Publishing Limited,
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www.woodheadpublishing.com
3 www.woodheadpublishingonline.com
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7 Woodhead Publishing India Private Limited, G-2, Vardaan House, 7/28 Ansari
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First published 2013, Woodhead Publishing Limited
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The authors have asserted their moral rights.
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the authors and the publishers cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all
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or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, microfilming
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and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without

24 permission in writing from Woodhead Publishing Limited.
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permission must be obtained in writing from Woodhead Publishing Limited for
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29 Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
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30 trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation, without intent to
infringe.
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32 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

33 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
34
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ISBN 978978-0-85709-268-7 (print)

35 ISBN 978-0-85709-898-6 (online)
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37 The publisher’s policy is to use permanent paper from mills that operate a
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38 sustainable forestry policy, and which has been manufactured from pulp which is
processed using acid-free and elemental chlorine-free practices. Furthermore, the
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publisher ensures that the text paper and cover board used have met acceptable
40 environmental accreditation standards.
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42 Typeset by Toppan Best-set Premedia Limited
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1
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Contents 3
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Contributor contact details xvi
13
Preface xxiii
14
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Part I Ground motions and seismic hazard assessment
g 1 16
17
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1 Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of civil 18
infrastructure 3 19
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G. M. Atkinson, Western University, Canada and K. Goda, 20

University of Bristol, UK 21
1.1 Introduction: past developments and current trends in 22
assessing seismic risks 3 23
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1.2 Simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard 24

analysis (PSHA) 7 25
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1.3 Extension of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) 26

to advanced earthquake engineering analyses 17 27
1.4 Conclusions and future trends 23 28
1.5 References 25 29
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2 Uncertainties in ground motion prediction in 31
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probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of civil 32

infrastructure 29 33
P. J. Stafford, Imperial College London, UK 34
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2.1 Introduction 29 35
2.2 Explanation of ground-motion prediction equations 36
(GMPEs) 30 37
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2.3 Development of ground-motion prediction equations 38

(GMPEs) 37 39
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2.4 Sensitivity of model components 45 40

2.5 Future trends 51 41
2.6 Conclusions 54 42
2.7 References 54 43 K
v

vi Contents
1 3 Spatial correlation of ground motions in estimating

2 seismic hazards to civil infrastructure 57
3 V. Sokolov and F. Wenzel, Karlsruhe Institute of
4 Technology (KIT), Germany
5 3.1 Introduction 57
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6 3.2 Spatial correlation of ground motions: evaluation and
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7 analysis 58
8 3.3 Ground-motion correlation and seismic loss assessment 69
9 3.4 Future trends 74
10 3.5 References 75
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12 4 Ground motion selection for seismic risk analysis of
13 civil infrastructure 79
14 B. A. Bradley, University of Canterbury,
15 New Zealand
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17 4.2 Ground motion selection in seismic performance
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18 assessment 80
19 4.3 Case study: bridge foundation soil system 83
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20 4.4 The generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM)

21 approach 84
22 4.5 Ground motion selection using generalized conditional
23 intensity measure (GCIM) 87
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24 4.6 Application of the ground motion selection

25 methodology 93
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26 4.7 Checking for bias in seismic response analysis due to

27 ground motion selection 104
28 4.8 Seismic demand curve computation 105
29 4.9 Software implementations 108
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30 4.10 Conclusions and future trends 108

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32
33 5 Assessing and managing risk of earthquake-induced
34 liquefaction to civil infrastructure 113
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35 J. F. Mian, Arup, UK, S. Kontoe, Imperial College London,

36 UK and M. Free, ARUP, UK
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38 5.2 Hazard identification 117

39 5.3 Hazard quantification 121
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40 5.4 Response of infrastructure to liquefaction hazards 125

41 5.5 Tolerable risks and performance levels 133
42 5.6 Conclusions 134
K 43 5.7 References 135

Contents vii
Part II Seismic risk analysis methodologies 139 1

2
6 Seismic risk analysis and management of civil 3
infrastructure systems: an overview 141 4
S. Tesfamariam, The University of British Columbia, 5
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Canada and K. Goda, University of Bristol, UK 6
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6.2 Uncertainty in risk analysis 143 8
6.3 Risk analysis 150 9
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6.4 Risk management 155
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7 Seismic risk analysis using Bayesian belief networks 175 14
S. Tesfamariam, The University of British Columbia, 15
7.1 Introduction g
Canada and Z. Liu, Toyota Technological Institute, Japan
175
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7.2 Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 176 18
7.3 Application of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to seismic 19
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risk assessment: site-specific hazard assessment 181 20

7.4 Regional damage estimation 187 21
7.5 Vulnerability and damage assessment of individual 22
buildings 195 23
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7.7 References and futher reading 202 25
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8 Structural vulnerability analysis of civil infrastructure 27
facing seismic hazards 209 28
J. Agarwal, University of Bristol, UK 29
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8.2 Vulnerability, hazard and risk 210 31
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8.3 Identification of vulnerability 212 32

8.4 Analysis of risk 218 33
8.5 Vulnerability of infrastructure networks 223 34
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8.6 Advantages of vulnerability analysis 226 35

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9 Earthquake risk management of civil infrastructure: 39
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integrating soft and hard risks 229 40

D. Blockley, University of Bristol, UK 41
9.1 Introduction: the inevitability of risk 229 42
9.2 Managing technical risks to structures 230 43 K

viii Contents
1 9.3 Reliability theory for the analysis of uncertainty and risk 232
2 9.4 Seismic vulnerability 235
3 9.5 Uncertainty: fuzziness, incompleteness and
4 randomness (FIR) 238
5 9.6 Systems thinking 238
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6 9.7 Process models and project progress maps (PPM) 243
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7 9.8 Measuring evidence of performance 245
8 9.9 A structural example: procuring a new building 247
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12 10 A capability approach for seismic risk analysis and
13 management 255
14 P. Gardoni and C. Murphy, University of Illinois at
15 Urbana-Champaign, USA
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17 10.2 Desiderata for a framework for seismic risk analysis and
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18 management 258
19 10.3 A capability approach for seismic risk analysis and
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20 management 259
21 10.4 Benefits of a capability approach 265
23 10.6 Acknowledgments 266
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25
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26 11 Resilience-based design (RBD) modelling of civil

27 infrastructure to assess seismic hazards 268
28 G. P. Cimellaro, Politecnico di Torino, Italy
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30 11.2 Development of performance-based design (PBD) 270

31 11.3 Towards resilience-based design (RBD) 271
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32 11.4 Case studies 292

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35 11.7 Acknowledgements 300

36 11.8 References and further reading 300
37
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Part III Assessing seismic risks to buildings 305
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40 12 Assessing seismic risks for new and existing

41 buildings using performance-based earthquake
42 engineering (PBEE) methodology 307
K 43 T. Y. Yang, The University of British Columbia, Canada

Contents ix

12.2 Performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) 2
framework 308 3
12.3 Application: seismic performance assessment of high-rise 4
buildings 321 5
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12.5 Acknowledgments 332 7
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13 Assessing the seismic vulnerability of masonry 10
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buildings 334 11
D. D’Ayala, University College London, UK 12
13.2 Vulnerability approaches: empirical and analytical 336 14
13.3 Collapse-mechanism approach to seismic vulnerability of 15
13.4
masonry buildings
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Stochastic and epistemic uncertainty quantification
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13.6 References and further reading 362 19
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14 Vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete 21
structures for fire and earthquake risk 366 22
H. Mostafaei, National Research Council, Canada 23
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14.2 Structural response to fire 368 25
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14.3 Seismic response of structures 369 26

14.4 Fire performance of a reinforced concrete building 27
following an earthquake 370 28
14.5 Residual seismic resistance of fire-damaged building 29
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columns 379 30
14.6 Lateral load resistance of a fire-damaged column using 31
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a hybrid method 383 32

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15 Seismic risk models for aging and deteriorating 36
buildings and civil infrastructure 387 37
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M. Sánchez-Silva and J. Riascos-Ochoa, 38

Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia 39
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15.2 Structural degradation 389 41
15.3 Shock-based damage accumulation models 391 42
15.4 Approximation to graceful deterioration 399 43 K

x Contents
1 15.5 Combined progressive and shock-based deterioration 403

4
5 16 Stochastic modeling of deterioration in buildings and
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6 civil infrastructure 410
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7 R. Kumar, Texas A&M University, USA and P. Gardoni,
8 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
10 16.2 A general deterioration process 411
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11 16.3 Modeling of a general deterioration process using the
12 stochastic semi-analytical approach (SSA) 414
13 16.4 Stochastic modeling of deterioration in reinforced
14 concrete (RC) bridges 418
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19 Part IV Assessing seismic risks to bridges and other
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20 components of civil infrastructure networks 435

21
22 17 Risk assessment and management of civil
23 infrastructure networks: a systems approach 437
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24 M. Sánchez-Silva and C. Gómez, Universidad de Los

25 Andes, Colombia
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27 17.2 Systems and networks 438
28 17.3 Hierarchical representation of networks 442
29 17.4 Risk assessment of infrastructure networks 446
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30 17.5 Optimal resource allocation in infrastructure networks 454

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34 18 Seismic vulnerability analysis of a complex
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35 interconnected civil infrastructure 465

36 P. Franchin and F. Cavalieri, University of Rome
37 ‘La Sapienza’, Italy
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38 18.1 Introduction and definitions 465

39 18.2 Time, space and stakeholder dimensions of the problem 466
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40 18.3 Model, analysis type and interactions 468

41 18.4 Object-oriented model (OOM) of the infrastructure
42 and hazards 470
K 43 18.5 Description of the main classes of building 472

Contents xi
18.6 Performance metrics 488 1

18.7 Probabilistic assessment of the model 493 2
18.8 Example of an application of seismic vulnerability 3
analysis 499 4
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18.10 Acknowledgements 509 6
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19 Seismic reliability of deteriorating reinforced 9
concrete (RC) bridges 514 10
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P. Gardoni, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 11
USA and D. Trejo, Oregon State University, USA 12
19.2 Mechanisms of deterioration 515 14
19.3 Effects of deterioration on reliability of bridges 519 15
19.4
19.5
Conclusions
References g 531
532
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20 Using a performance-based earthquake engineering 19
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(PBEE) approach to estimate structural performance 20

targets for bridges 536 21
Z. Gülerce, Middle East Technical University, Turkey 22
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20.2 Performance-based seismic evaluation framework 24

(PEER approach) 537 25
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20.3 Probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) 542 26

20.4 Vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard assessment 27
(PSHA) 544 28
20.5 Performance-based seismic evaluation of ordinary 29
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highway bridges 546 30

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34
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21 Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) applied to 35

seismic risk assessment of bridges 561 36
P. Tehrani and D. Mitchell, McGill University, Canada 37
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21.2 Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) 563 39
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21.3 Structural modelling for incremental dynamic 40

analysis (IDA) 564 41
21.4 Sources of uncertainty 567 42
21.5 Record selection for incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) 568 43 K

xii Contents
1 21.6 Development of fragility curves using incremental

2 dynamic analysis (IDA) results 579
3 21.7 Case study for a continuous 4-span bridge 580
5 21.9 Sources of further information 592
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8 22 Effect of soil–structure interaction and spatial
9 variability of ground motion on seismic risk
10 assessment of bridges 597
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11 A. Sextos, Aristotle University Thessaloniki, Greece
13 22.2 Soil–foundation–pier–superstructure interaction 599
14 22.3 Embankment–backfill–abutment–superstructure
15 interaction 607
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16 22.4 Realistic earthquake excitation scenarios for interactive
17 soil–bridge systems 610
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20
21 23 Seismic risk management of water pipeline
22 networks 626
23 T. Koike, Kyoto University, Japan
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25 23.2 Seismic failure of a lifeline system 627
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26 23.3 Seismic risk assessment 641

27 23.4 Seismic risk mitigation 650
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31 24 Seismic risk assessment of water supply systems 659
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32 Y. Wang, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

34 24.2 General framework for evaluating seismic risk 660
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35 24.3 System characteristics 660

36 24.4 Seismic hazards 664
37 24.5 Component responses 669
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38 24.6 System responses 672

39 24.7 Economic and social consequences 676
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41 24.9 Sources of further information and advice 678
42 24.10 Acknowledgments 678

Contents xiii
25 Seismic risk assessment for oil and gas pipelines 682 1

D. G. Honegger, D.G. Honegger Consulting, USA and 2
D. Wijewickreme, University of British Columbia, 3
Canada 4
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25.2 Purpose of performing a risk assessment 683 6
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25.3 Key steps in performing risk assessments for oil and 7
gas pipelines 685 8
25.4 Types of seismic hazard 688 9
25.5 Determining hazard likelihood 691 10
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25.6 Determining severity of hazard 692 11
25.7 Pipeline response to earthquake hazards 696 12
25.8 Consequences of pipeline damage 699 13
25.9 Mitigation approaches to reduce risk to pipelines 702 14
25.10 Challenges and issues 705 15
25.11
25.12
Future trends
Conclusions g 708
712
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17
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25.13 References and further reading 712 18
19
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26 Seismic risk analysis of wind turbine support 20

structures 716 21
M. Mardfekri, Texas A&M University, USA and 22
P. Gardoni, University of Illinois at 23
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Urbana-Champaign, USA 24
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26.2 Probabilistic demand models 718 26

26.3 Demand models for the support structure of offshore 27
wind turbines 719 28
26.4 Example of fragility estimates for an offshore wind 29
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turbine support structure 733 30

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35
36
Part V Assessing financial and other losses from 37
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earthquake damage 739 38

39
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27 Seismic risk and possible maximum loss (PML) 40

analysis of reinforced concrete structures 741 41
H. Yoshikawa, Tokyo City University, Japan 42
27.1 Introduction 741 43 K

xiv Contents
1 27.2 Analytical procedure for assessing seismic risk 743

2 27.3 Case studies of seismic risk analysis for reinforced
3 concrete structures 747
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6
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7
8 28 Seismic risk management of insurance losses using
9 extreme value theory and copula 760
10 K. Goda, University of Bristol, UK and J. Ren, Western
Lim
11 University, Canada
13 28.2 Statistical modelling of extreme data 763
14 28.3 Insurer’s earthquake risk exposure modelling 767
15 28.4 Earthquake insurance portfolio analysis 774
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17 28.6 References in 784
18
19 29 Probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance
ish
20 rates for buildings 787

21 M. S. Yucemen, Middle East Technical University,
22 Turkey
23
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29.1 Introduction 787

24 29.2 Probabilistic model for the assessment of earthquake
25 insurance rates 789
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26 29.3 Application: assessment of earthquake insurance rates

27 for different seismic zones in Turkey 795
28 29.4 Implementation of earthquake insurance: Turkish
29 Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) 803
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31
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29.6 Acknowldgments 811

33
34
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35 30 Assessing global earthquake risks: the Global

36 Earthquake Model (GEM) initiative 815
37 H. Crowley, R. Pinho, M. Pagani and N. Keller,
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38 GEM Foundation, Italy

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40 30.2 Current status of Global Earthquake Model (GEM) 822

41 30.3 OpenQuake 833
42 30.4 Outlook for Global Earthquake Model (GEM) 837

Contents xv
31 Strategies for rapid global earthquake impact 1

estimation: the Prompt Assessment of Global 2
Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system 839 3
K. S. Jaiswal and D. J Wald, National Earthquake 4
Information Center, USA 5
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31.2 State-of-the-art of rapid earthquake loss estimation 7
systems 840 8
31.3 Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response 9
(PAGER) system development 842 10
Lim
31.4 Earthquake loss models within the Prompt Assessment 11
of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system 844 12
31.5 Earthquake impact scale 855 13
31.6 Loss estimation for recent earthquakes 857 14
31.7 Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response 15
31.8
(PAGER) products and ongoing developments
Conclusions g 859
862
16
17
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20
21
Index 867 22
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43 K

1
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3 Contributor contact details
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5
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ite
7
8
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10
Lim
11
12
13
14
(* = main contact) Katsuichiro Goda*
15
Department of Civil Engineering
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16
17
Editors in University of Bristol
Queen’s Building
18 Solomon Tesfamariam*
University Walk
19 The University of British Columbia
Bristol BS8 1TR
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20 Canada
UK
21
E-mail: solomon.tesfamariam@
22 E-mail: katsu.goda@bristol.ac.uk
ubc.ca
23
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24 Chapter 2
Katsuichiro Goda
25
Department of Civil Engineering Peter J. Stafford
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26
University of Bristol Imperial College London
27
Queen’s Building London
28
University Walk UK
29
Bristol BS8 1TR
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30 E-mail: p.stafford@imperial.ac.uk
UK
31
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32 E-mail: katsu.goda@bristol.ac.uk Chapter 3

33
Dr V. Sokolov* and Professor F.
34 Chapter 1
dh
Wenzel
35
Professor Gail M. Atkinson Geophysical Institute
36
Department of Earth Sciences Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
37
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Western University (KIT)

38
1151 Richmond Street North Hertzstr. 16, 76187
39
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London Karlsruhe
40
Ontario N6A 5B7 Germany
41
Canada
42 E-mail: Vladimir.Sokolov@kit.edu;
K 43 E-mail: Gmatkinson@aol.com Friedemann.Wenzel@kit.edu
xvi

Contributor contact details xvii
Chapter 4 Chapter 6 1
2
Brendon A. Bradley Solomon Tesfamariam* 3
Department of Civil and Natural The University of British Columbia 4
Resources Engineering Canada 5
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University of Canterbury 6
E-mail: solomon.tesfamariam@
Private Bag 4800
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ubc.ca 7
Christchurch 8
New Zealand 9
Katsuichiro Goda
10
Lim
E-mail: brendon.bradley@canter- Department of Civil Engineering
bury.ac.nz University of Bristol 11
Queen’s Building 12
Chapter 5 University Walk 13
Bristol BS8 1TR 14
Dr Juliet F. Mian* 15
UK
Arup
Blythe Gate g
E-mail: katsu.goda@bristol.ac.uk
16
17
in
Blythe Valley Business Park 18
Shirley Chapter 7 19
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Solihull B90 8AE 20

Solomon Tesfamariam*
UK 21
The University of British Columbia
E-mail: Juliet.Mian@arup.com Canada 22
23
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E-mail: solomon.tesfamariam@ubc. 24
Dr Stavroula Kontoe
ca 25
Department of Civil and Environ-
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mental Engineering 26
Z. Liu
Imperial College London 27
Toyota Technological Institute
London 28
Japan
UK 29
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30
E-mail: stavroula.kontoe@imperial. Chapter 8 31
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ac.uk 32
Jitendra Agarwal
Department of Civil Engineering 33
Dr Matthew Free
University of Bristol 34
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Arup
Bristol BS8 1TR 35
13 Fitzroy Street
UK 36
London W1T 4BQ
37
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UK E-mail: j.agarwal@bristol.ac.uk
38
E-mail: Matthew.free@arup.com 39
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43 K

xviii Contributor contact details
1 Chapter 9 Chapter 11
2
3 Emeritus Professor David Blockley Gian Paolo Cimellaro
4 Department of Civil Engineering Department of Structural, Building
5 University of Bristol and Geotechnical Engineering
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6 Bristol BS8 1TR (DISEG)
UK Politecnico di Torino, room 7
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7
8 Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24
E-mail: D.Blockley@bris.ac.uk
9 10129 Turin
Italy
10 Chapter 10
Lim
11 E-mail: gianpaolo.cimellaro@polito.
12 Associate Professor Paolo
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13 Gardoni*
Department of Civil and Environ-
14 Chapter 12
15 mental Engineering
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16 University of Illinois at T. Y. Yang
17 Urbana-Champaign in The University of British Columbia
18 3118 Newmark Civil Engineering Vancouver
19 Laboratory Canada
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20 205 North Mathews Avenue

E-mail: yangtony2004@gmail.com
21 Urbana, IL 61801
USA
22 Chapter 13
23 E-mail: gardoni@illinois.edu
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24 Dr Dina D’Ayala
25 Department of Civil, Environmen-
Associate Professor Colleen
tal and Geomatic Engineering
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26 Murphy
27 University College London
University of Illinois at
28 London
Urbana-Champaign
29 UK
Department of Philosophy
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30 105 Gregory Hall, MC-468 E-mail: d.d’ayala@ucl.ac.uk

31 810 South Wright Street
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32 Urbana, IL 61801 Chapter 14

33 USA
34 Hossein Mostafaei
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35 E-mail: colleenm@illinois.edu National Research Council Canada

36 M-59, 1200 Montreal Rd
37 Ottawa
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38 ON K1A 0R6
39 Canada
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40 E-mail: Hossein.Mostafaei@nrc-
41 cnrc.gc.ca
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Contributor contact details xix
2
M. Sánchez-Silva* and Javier Mauricio Sánchez-Silva* and 3
Riascos-Ochoa Camilo Gómez 4
Department of Civil and Environ- Department of Civil and Environ- 5
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mental Engineering mental Engineering 6
Universidad de Los Andes Universidad de los Andes
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7
Bogota Mario Laserna Building 8
Colombia Carrera 1 East # 19A-40 9
Bogotá 10
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E-mail: msanchez@uniandes.edu.co
Colombia 11
Chapter 16 E-mail: msanchez@uniandes.edu.co 12
13
Ramesh Kumar
Chapter 18 14
Zachry Department of Civil 15
Engineering
Texas A&M University g
Paolo Franchin* and Francesco
Cavalieri
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17
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3136 TAMU Department of Structural and Geo- 18
College Station, TX 77843-3136 technical Engineering 19
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USA University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’ 20

Via Antonio Gramsci 53 21
E-mail: ramesh-kumar@neo.
I-00197 22
tamu.edu
Rome 23
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Italy 24
Associate Professor Paolo
Gardoni* E-mail: paolo.franchin@uniromal.it 25
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Department of Civil and Environ- 26

mental Engineering Chapter 19 27
University of Illinois at 28
Associate Professor Paolo 29
Urbana-Champaign
Gardoni*
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3118 Newmark Civil Engineering 30

Department of Civil and Environ- 31
Laboratory
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mental Engineering 32
205 North Mathews Avenue
University of Illinois at 33
Urbana, IL 61801
Urbana-Champaign 34
USA
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E-mail: gardoni@illinois.edu Laboratory 36
205 North Mathews Avenue 37
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USA 39
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xx Contributor contact details
1 Professor David Trejo Chapter 23

2 School of Civil and Construction
3 Engineering Professor T. Koike
4 Oregon State University Department of Civil Engineering
5 220 Owen Hall Kyoto University
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6 Corvallis, OR 97331 C cluster
Katsura Campus, Kyoto University
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7 USA
8 Nishikyo-ku
E-mail: david.trejo@oregonstate. Kyoto, 615-8540
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edu Japan
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11 E-mail: koike.takeshi.7n@kyoto-u.
Chapter 20
12 ac.jp
13 Assistant Professor Zeynep
14 Gülerce Chapter 24
15 Civil Engineering Department
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16 Middle East Technical University Assistant Professor Yu Wang
17 K1-308
in Department of Civil and Architec-
18 06800 Ankara tural Engineering
19 Turkey City University of Hong Kong
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20 Tat Chee Avenue

E-mail: zyilmaz@metu.edu.tr Kowloon
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22 Hong Kong
Chapter 21
23 E-mail: yuwang@cityu.edu.hk
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24 P. Tehrani* and D. Mitchell

25 McGill University Chapter 25
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26 Department of Civil Engineering

27 and Applied Mechanics Douglas G. Honegger
28 817 Sherbrooke Street West D. G. Honegger Consulting
29 Montreal QC H3A 2K6 2690 Shetland Place
Arroyo Grande, CA 93420
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30 Canada
31 USA
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E-mail: payam.tehrani@mail.
32 E-mail: DGHConsult@aol.com
mcgill.ca
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34 Professor Dharma Wijewickreme*
Chapter 22
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35 Department of Civil Engineering

36 Assistant Professor Dr A. Sextos University of British Columbia
37 Aristotle University Thessaloniki 6250 Applied Science Lane
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38 Department of Civil Engineering Vancouver, B.C.

39 Division of Structural Engineering V6T 1Z4
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40 54124 Thessaloniki Canada

41 Greece
42 E-mail: dharmaw@civil.ubc.ca
E-mail: asextos@civil.auth.gr
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Contributor contact details xxi
2
Maryam Mardfekri Katsuichiro Goda* 3
Zachry Department of Civil Department of Civil Engineering 4
Engineering University of Bristol 5
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Texas A&M University Queen’s Building 6
3136 TAMU University Walk
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College Station, TX 77843-3136 Bristol BS8 1TR 8
USA UK 9
10
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E-mail: maryam_mardfekri@tamu. E-mail: katsu.goda@bristol.ac.uk
edu 11
Associate Professor Jiandong Ren 12
Paolo Gardoni* Department of Actuarial Sciences 13
Department of Civil and Environ- Western University 14
mental Engineering Canada 15
University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign g
Chapter 29
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Professor M. S. Yucemen 19
Laboratory
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Civil Engineering and Earthquake 20

205 North Mathews Avenue
Studies Departments 21
Urbana, IL 61801
Middle East Technical University 22
USA
06800 Ankara 23
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E-mail: gardoni@illinois.edu Turkey 24

E-mail: yucemen@metu.edu.tr 25
Chapter 27
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Professor Hiromichi Yoshikawa Chapter 30 27
Department of Urban and Civil 28
Helen Crowley*, Rui Pinho, Marco 29
Engineering
Pagani and Nicole Keller
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Advanced Research Laboratories 30

GEM Foundation 31
Tokyo City University
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Via Ferrata 1 32
Tokyo
Pavia, 27100 33
Japan
Italy 34
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E-mail: hyoshika@tcu.ac.jp 35
E-mail: helen.crowley@global-
quakemodel.org; rui.pinho@glo- 36
balquakemodel.org; marco. 37
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pagani@globalquakemodel.org; 38
nicole.keller@globalquakemodel. 39
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org 40
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43 K

xxii Contributor contact details
1 Chapter 31 David Jay Wald

2 National Earthquake Information
3 Kishor Subhash Jaiswal* Center
4 Synergetics Inc. U.S. Geological Survey
5 Contracted at: National Earth- 1711 Illinois Street
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6 quake Information Center Golden, CO 80401
U.S. Geological Survey
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7 USA
8 1711 Illinois Street
Golden, CO 80401 E-mail: wald@usgs.gov
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10 USA
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11 E-mail: kjaiswal@usgs.gov
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1
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Preface 3
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What makes earthquake risks so catastrophic and dreadful? Possible reasons 13
are attributed to sudden, unpredictable, involuntary, and large-scale nature 14
of the risks. As a consequence of a devastating earthquake, a tremendous 15
g
surge of seismic damage and loss may overwhelm the risk-bearing capaci-
ties of households, companies, municipalities, and insurers, and may eventu-
16
17
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ally cause serious long-term effects on communities and regional/national 18
economy. Recent earthquake catastrophes, including the 2004 Indian Ocean, 19
ish
2008 Wenchuan, 2010 Haiti, and 2011 Christchurch earthquakes,��

have dem- 20
onstrated that urban cities and communities in seismic regions are vulner- 21
able to extreme seismic events. In the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake, the 22
number of fatalities was in excess of 19 000, and the total economic loss has 23
bl
reached 300–400 billion U.S. dollars. Earthquakes impact entire physical 24

infrastructure, including buildings and lifelines (water and sewage networks, 25
Pu
bridges, power supply, etc.). Furthermore, various stakeholders (e.g. global 26

companies with supply-chain networks around the world and insurance/ 27
reinsurance companies with a widespread portfolio of businesses and 28
investments) are affected by such catastrophes due to the complex and 29
d
inter-connected global economy. In nutshell, we live in a highly uncertain 30

and vulnerable world due to large-scale natural disasters, and global earth- 31
ea
quake risks must be mitigated to achieve more resilient and sustainable 32

society. 33
The current framework for seismic risk analysis addresses quantification 34
dh
of magnitude and recurrence of earthquake, vulnerability of infrastructure 35

systems, and consequences due to damage. Developing a screening compre- 36
hensive model for all types of structures and lifelines is a challenging task. 37
o
A system-based model can be used, where a system is defined as an ‘��

��
assem- 38
blage of components acting as a whole’; each system in turn encapsulates 39
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different subcomponents, each of which can be described as a subsystem. 40

In structural safety evaluation, system response to earthquake loading is of 41
paramount importance and is often affected by complex interdependency 42
of subsystems in terms of structural resilience and functionality. A notable 43 K
xxiii

xxiv Preface
1 example is the cascading failures of infrastructure systems during a natural

2 disaster; the functionality of a critical facility, such as a hospital, is influenced
3 by the structural resilience as well as the surrounding lifeline networks (e.g.
4 water, electricity, and staff availability). Different approaches and methods
5 are available to address a wide variety of engineering problems, and suit-
d
6 able models are required to analyse the problems. It is also important to
ite
7 recognise that all models are necessarily incomplete and somewhat in error;
8 and the system being modelled may have inherent variability or un-
9 measurability in its behaviour. Nevertheless, despite these limitations, the
10 systems approach has a great utility and future potential for assessing
Lim
11 seismic performance of civil infrastructure and for more effective seismic
12 risk management and decision making.
13 Primary role and purpose of risk analysis and management are to quan-
14 tify uncertainty and facilitate sound and efficient decision making. Risk
15 management is a process of weighting alternatives (options) and selecting
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16 the most appropriate action by integrating the results of risk assessment
17 with engineering data as well as social/economic/political factors to reach
in
18 an acceptable decision. Generally, the risk assessment/analysis process
19 involves objectivity, whereas risk management involves preferences and
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20 attitudes which have both objective and subjective elements. In seismic risk
21 analysis and loss estimation, uncertainties are prevalent in hazard assess-
22 ment, ground condition, ground motion prediction equations, building stock
23 and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability of infrastructure. Typology
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24 and definition of uncertainty within the engineering community are broad.

25 In risk analysis, uncertainty can be categorised into aleatory and epistemic
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26 uncertainty. Aleatory uncertainty (variability) is due to natural heterogene-

27 ity or stochasticity of a physical process and it cannot be reduced, while
28 epistemic uncertainty is due to ignorance or subjectivity, which can be
29 reduced with availability of more information. Therefore, consideration of
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30 uncertainty in any risk analysis is unavoidable, and modelling and treatment

31 of epistemic uncertainties are critically important.
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32 The book, which is in five parts, is intended to address the complex and
33 multi-stakeholder nature of risk analysis and management.
34
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35 • Part I describes the state of the art in ground motions and seismic hazard
36 assessment. Chapters in Part I cover the current and future development
37 of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, spatial correlation and uncer-
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38 tainties in ground motion prediction, ground motion record selection

39 for improved seismic performance evaluation of engineering structures,
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40 and liquefaction assessment.

41 • Part II covers a broad topic in seismic risk assessment and management.
42 The topics include seismic risk analysis and management with incorpo-
K 43 ration of uncertainties, integrating soft and hard risks, application of a

Preface xxv
Bayesian belief network, structural vulnerability, novel capability-based 1

design approach for disaster management, and proposal for a new resil- 2
ience-based design. 3
• Part III deals with various risk assessments of buildings subject to dif- 4
ferent hazards (seismic, fire, deterioration, etc.). This entails the state of 5
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the art in performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) method- 6
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ology, seismic vulnerability of masonry, seismic and fire vulnerability of 7
reinforced concrete structures, and risk assessment of buildings subject 8
to stochastic deterioration. 9
• Part IV deals with seismic risk assessments of bridges and other lifeline 10
Lim
infrastructure networks. Lifeline structures (e.g. pipeline network and 11
road network) are linear systems, and require consideration of a system- 12
based approach that accounts for the complexity and interdependence. 13
Chapters in Part IV cover a PBEE framework of bridge risk assessment, 14
subject to deterioration and consideration soil–structure interaction, 15
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and a novel application of incremental dynamic analysis for bridge
seismic risk assessment. Moreover, Part IV presents seismic risk assess-
16
17
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ment and management of water and oil pipeline networks, and wind 18
turbine support structures. 19
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• Part V deals with assessing financial and other losses from earthquake 20
damage. This entails models for quantitative seismic risk and possible 21
maximum loss (PML) analysis, seismic risk management, and probabi- 22
listic assessment of insurance losses from earthquakes. Furthermore, 23
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a rapid earthquake loss estimation models for civil infrastructure, 24

the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for Response (PAGER) 25
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system, is discussed, and finally, a new Global Earthquake Model 26

(GEM) initiative that deals with assessing global earthquake risks is 27
presented. 28
29
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This book has highlighted the complex nature of seismic risk analysis and 30
management, and the need for a multi-disciplinary approach. The authors 31
ea
that contributed to each chapter are experts in each topic, and have pro- 32
vided the state of the art and future direction. It has brought experts from 33
a wide range of fields, such as engineering seismology, earthquake engineer- 34
dh
ing, risk management, social scientists, and mathematicians/statisticians. It 35

is envisioned that, collection of such chapters, in one book can be used as 36
a good reference for decision makers and other stakeholders. It can also 37
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inspire younger generation of researchers, practitioners and educators in 38

this field. Hopefully, by targeting such audience, this book has a far-reaching 39
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and long-term impact. 40

41
Solomon Tesfamariam at UBC, British Columbia, Canada 42
Katsuichiro Goda at Bristol, UK 43 K

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Handbook of Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure

Book · January 2013

Solomon Tesfamariam Katsuichiro Goda

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© Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2013

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

Commissioning Editor: Francis Dodds

26 Editorial and Production Manager: Mary Campbell

© Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2013

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

risk analysis and

S. Tesfamariam and K. Goda 20

© Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2013

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without

32 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

ISBN 978978-0-85709-268-7 (print)

© Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2013

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

G. M. Atkinson, Western University, Canada and K. Goda, 20

1.2 Simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard 24

1.3 Extension of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) 26

probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of civil 32

2.3 Development of ground-motion prediction equations 38

2.4 Sensitivity of model components 45 40

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

1 3 Spatial correlation of ground motions in estimating

20 4.4 The generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM)

24 4.6 Application of the ground motion selection

26 4.7 Checking for bias in seismic response analysis due to

30 4.10 Conclusions and future trends 108

35 J. F. Mian, Arup, UK, S. Kontoe, Imperial College London,

38 5.2 Hazard identification 117

40 5.4 Response of infrastructure to liquefaction hazards 125

© Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2013

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

Part II Seismic risk analysis methodologies 139 1

risk assessment: site-specific hazard assessment 181 20

7.6 Conclusions and future trends 201 24

8.1 Introduction 209 30

8.3 Identification of vulnerability 212 32

8.6 Advantages of vulnerability analysis 226 35

integrating soft and hard risks 229 40

© Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2013

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

24 10.7 References 266

26 11 Resilience-based design (RBD) modelling of civil

30 11.2 Development of performance-based design (PBD) 270

32 11.4 Case studies 292

35 11.7 Acknowledgements 300

40 12 Assessing seismic risks for new and existing

© Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2013

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems

12.1 Introduction 307 1

14.1 Introduction 366 24

14.3 Seismic response of structures 369 26

a hybrid method 383 32

M. Sánchez-Silva and J. Riascos-Ochoa, 38

15.1 Introduction 387 40

© Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2013

Tesfamariam—Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems