Final Paper: Climate Solutions Simulation

COBIBDS K35
Group 3: Briones, Krisvin Louis; Gutierrez, Isabela Maria; Buensalida, Aaron James; Dueñas,
Chelsea Francine; Farrales, Callista Faustina

I. Introduction

The simulation in the attached picture is a way to learn about what might happen if
different climate policies are implemented. By changing things like energy subsidies, rates of
electrification, and deforestation, the model attached can help predict the long-term effects of
temperature changes and climate change, which helps world leaders make calculated decisions
based on science. The goal is to help create a policy and a global effort to slow down climate
change.

The analysis of global sources of primary energy and its corresponding greenhouse gas
emissions projection based on energy system modeling simulation is crucial for understanding
the current state of our energy landscape and its implications for climate change. The details of
the graph depicting global sources of primary energy and greenhouse gas net emissions, as well
as the simulation used to project the resulting temperature increase by 2100 will be discussed.
Additionally, the general factors of the simulation, focusing on energy supply, transportation, and
deforestation, and highlighting the importance of implementing better policies to mitigate the
adverse effects of climate change will be explored as well.

Figure 1
Resulting Temperature Increase by 2100

II. Climate Impact of Subsidizing Renewables in Energy Supply

Figure 2
Adjustments in Energy Supply Policies
 Transitioning to green energy is a leading factor in halting climate change. The way the
world’s energy supports are managed now is important because of how it affects how markets
work, and how much money is invested in green technologies. The En-ROADS model
showcases how important it is to invest in green technology and energy sources. By shifting
subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable sources like solar, wind, and hydro, the model projects
that the rise in global temperatures will be slowed to 3.1°C by 2100, down from 3.3°C if nothing
is done.

Even though this 0.2°C drop seems small, it is very overriding since it is a step toward
the lofty global goal to keep warming well below 0.2°C. There are two reasons for this. First,
subsidies make it easier for people to afford to use green energy, which speeds up the
replacement of coal, oil, and natural gas, which all produce a lot of pollution. Second, they
encourage new ideas and economies of scale, which lowers prices even more and makes things
easier for more people to get.

In this simulation, renewable energy is highly subsidized as energy from renewable

sources produces far way less greenhouse gasses and pollution compared to non-renewable
energy since non-renewable energy is made from sources that have little to no replenishments in
our lifetimes. Non-renewable energy has been used for years and benefits from a lot of sources
and subsidies, it is mainly used by these sources which puts renewable energy at a downside
since fewer sources benefit from it. Based on the simulation attached above, there are several
advantages to using a renewable energy source because of the environmental and economic
benefits such as generating an energy that produces no greenhouse gasses at all which helps to
decrease pollution for a cleaner environment and reduces the health impacts of polluted areas.
Maximizing the use of renewable energy sources will also help oil and gas industries to explore
new revenue streams by joining in on the renewable energy market, they could also use this as an
advantage to market their products to enhance corporate social responsibility, this can include
investments in bioenergy, wind, solar, and other sustainable technologies.

Increasing the use of renewable energy sources will help to transition to a more
sustainable and viable economy while exploring opportunities for innovation and increasing
growth, especially for big fossil-fuel-dependent companies in the industry. Studies have shown
that strategic financial rewards are very important for slowly moving to a low-carbon economy.
Moreover, investing in renewable energy allows oil and gas companies to mitigate risks linked to
the unpredictable nature of fossil fuel markets, evolving regulations, and the possibility of having
stranded assets, particularly amid the global shift toward a low-carbon economy. Strategizing
funds that need to be set up in a way that encourages constant innovation that does not lock in
technologies that might become old or less useful over time.

Electrification is a key part of the global plan to fight climate change, especially in areas
that have long relied on fossil fuels. The test results show that if a lot of money and help are put
into making homes and businesses more energy efficient, the temperature rise that is expected
could be slowed down to 5.9°F by 2100. The fact that this improvement was only 0.1°F shows
what a big difference it can make when you electrify transportation, homes, and businesses.
There is strong scientific evidence for this: switching to electricity reduces reliance on oil and
gas, lowers emissions, and, when combined with a cleaner power grid, greatly reduces the carbon
footprint. Accelerating to replace the main polluting energy sources like coal, oil, and gas will be
a financial incentive if subsidies for green energy sources make them more affordable.

III. Climate Impact of Subsidizing Electrification in Transport Policies

Figure 3
Adjustments in Transport Policies
 There are numerous challenges in the Philippines' transportation system, especially in big
cities like Metro Manila. One well-known problem that causes commuters to become frustrated
and have to spend more time traveling is the occurrence of excessive traffic congestion. The
growing number of automobiles on the road, including motorcyclists and private vehicles, adds
to traffic congestion. Buses and jeepneys, two types of public transit, have reliability, efficiency,
and safety issues. A complex transportation environment is produced by these problems,
insufficient road infrastructure, and inadequate urban planning. The dependency on conventional
fossil fuel-powered vehicles adds to the nation's carbon footprint, and air pollution from vehicle
emissions degrades air quality. These factors have a significant negative influence on the
environment.

Electrification has the potential to help with transportation-related issues. By switching to

electric vehicles (EVs) from conventional fossil fuel-powered vehicles, air pollution and the
carbon footprint can be reduced. Compared to gasoline-powered automobiles, electric vehicles
are more energy-efficient and emit less pollution. Furthermore, encouraging the usage of electric
buses and jeepneys can improve the sustainability and efficiency of mass transit networks. The
incorporation of renewable energy sources can enhance electrification initiatives and reduce their
environmental impact even more. But for implementation to be successful, the Philippines'
transportation system needs to be made more ecologically friendly and sustainable, which calls
for the creation of infrastructure (like charging stations), supportive legislation, and public
awareness initiatives.

Pushing the use of biofuels or hydrogen as alternative vehicle fuels will require a
scientific approach that includes research and development in fuel cell efficiency, biofuel
conversion processes, and hydrogen production technologies (Abeleda & Espiritu, 2022).
Thorough analyses, such as life cycle assessments and economic viability assessments, are
essential for evaluating their environmental effect, energy balance, and emissions profile. Grid
integration and the optimization of renewable energy technologies are two aspects of investing in
clean energy sources to power electric automobiles. Strategies with a scientific foundation should
prioritize assessing new technologies and raising the proportion of solar, wind, and hydropower
in the mix of energy sources. To evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives and support
evidence-based decision-making for a sustainable and environmentally friendly transportation
system, ongoing monitoring and data-driven assessments are crucial.

IV. Climate Impact of Reducing Deforestation in Land, Food, and Industry Emissions
Policies

Figure 4
Adjustments in Land, Food, and Industry Emissions Policies

Between 2001 and 2022, in the Philippines, approximately 89% of the loss in tree cover
happened in regions primarily affected by deforestation drivers. Over this period, the country
experienced a significant loss of 1.42 million hectares of tree cover, signifying a reduction of
approximately 7.6% in tree cover since the year 2000. This loss in tree cover also resulted in
emissions amounting to 848 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents (Global Forest Watch, 2022).
Despite some of the policies of the Philippines regarding deforestation, challenges such as illegal
logging, agricultural expansion, and infrastructure development continue to threaten the
country's forests, necessitating ongoing reinforcement and strict enforcement of these policies.

Among the possible alternatives in the simulation include highly reducing deforestation.
This can be enforced and implemented through policies involving forest protection and
conservation. Moreover, reforestation and afforestation programs that aim to replant trees in
deforested areas are another alternative. It is also imperative that sustainable land use practices
are encouraged by reducing slash-and-burn farming and promoting agroforestry techniques that
integrate trees into agricultural lands. Involving the community is also integral where educating
them about the importance of forests and the net gain that can be achieved for our environment
be shared and learned. Most importantly, it is vital to strictly enforce bans on illegal logging
activities to be able to curb deforestation rates.
 The net gain and potential effects of reducing deforestation is carbon sequestration where
trees can absorb carbon dioxide thus reducing greenhouse gas emissions, ultimately mitigating
climate change (Selin, 2023). It can also help preserve diverse ecosystems, reduce soil erosion to
prevent landslides, and can also create opportunities for eco-tourism, sustainable forestry, and
providing economic benefits to local communities. Moreover, it can also highly influence local
climate patterns by regulating temperature and precipitation (Buis, 2019). While seemingly
small, the reduction of 0.1 degrees Celsius in the projected temperature increase by 2100, as
observed in the simulation (from 3.3 to 3.2 Celsius), showcases the significant impact that
reduced deforestation can have on slowing down the pace of global warming.

V. Conclusion

In conclusion, this simulation has demonstrated its efficacy in modeling and simulating
strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, showcasing a promising avenue for
achieving a more sustainable future. The notable achievement of limiting the projected net
temperature increase by 2100 to only +2.9 degrees Celsius, compared to the alarming +3.3
degrees Celsius, underscores the significance of targeted interventions. The simulation's success
can be attributed to its focus on three key areas: the substantial subsidization of renewables in
energy supplies, the promotion of electrification through robust subsidies in the transport sector,
and a substantial reduction in deforestation within the realms of land, food, and industry
emissions policies.

By addressing these critical facets of climate action, the Climate Solutions Simulation not
only offers hope but also provides concrete pathways for policymakers, industries, and
communities to adopt effective measures. These findings emphasize the pivotal role of strategic
policy adjustments in achieving substantial climate goals. As we navigate the challenges of a
changing climate, the insights derived from this simulation encourage a paradigm shift towards
sustainable energy, transportation, and land-use practices. It is distinct that concerted efforts in
these key areas can significantly alter the trajectory of global warming, paving the way for a
more resilient and sustainable future for our planet.

Key points:
● By highly subsidizing renewables in energy supplies, the simulation not only
fosters the growth of clean energy sources but also achieves a significant
reduction in carbon emissions, contributing to a more sustainable and
climate-resilient energy sector.
● Increased reliance on renewable energy sources enhances energy security by
reducing dependence on finite and environmentally harmful fossil fuels, thereby
promoting long-term stability and resilience in the face of climate challenges.
● The substantial subsidization of electrification in the transport sector accelerates
the shift away from fossil fuel-dependent vehicles, significantly reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, while promoting cleaner and more
efficient transportation systems.
● The focus on electrification not only addresses climate concerns but also
stimulates innovation and economic growth in the burgeoning electric vehicle
industry, fostering a sustainable and forward-looking economy.
● Protecting forests and reducing deforestation act as crucial carbon sinks,
absorbing and storing carbon dioxide, which plays a pivotal role in mitigating the
overall carbon footprint, ultimately contributing to a more stable and resilient
global climate.
References:

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https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2927/examining-the-viability-of-planting-trees-to-help-miti
gate-climate-change/

Global Forest Watch. (2022). Philippines deforestation rates & statistics: GFW. Forest
Monitoring, Land Use & Deforestation Trends.
https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/PHL/?category=forest-change&a
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Selin, N. (2023, November 14). Carbon sequestration. Encyclopædia Britannica.

https://www.britannica.com/technology/carbon-sequestration

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