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Chapter 1
Chapter 1
Chapter 1
(TOAE302)
Theory of Economics Statistics
(TOAE301)
nguyenthuhang.cs2@ftu.edu.vn
Assessment
◼ Attendance: 10%
◼ Mid-term test: 30%
◼ Final exam: 60%
Course outline
◼ Chapter 1: Introduction to Statistics
◼ Chapter 2: Summarizing Data
◼ Chapter 3: Numerical Descriptive Techniques
◼ Chapter 4: Inferences Based on a Single Sample:
Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypothesis
◼ Chapter 5: Inferences Based on a Two Samples
Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypothesis
◼ Chapter 6: ANOVA Analysis
◼ Chapter 7: Regression Analysis
◼ Chapter 8: Time series analysis
Text book
◼ 2. Statistical Concepts
◼ 3. Types of data and variable
measurements
◼ 4. Statistical Analysis Process
◼ 5. Source of Data
◼ 6. Questionnaire design
Business Statistics Marks
◼ A student enrolled in a business
program is attending the first
class of the required statistics
course. The student is somewhat
apprehensive because he believes
the myth that the course is
difficult. To alleviate his anxiety,
the student asks the professor
about last year’s marks. The
professor obliges and provides a
list of the final marks, which is
composed of term work plus the
final exam. What information can
the student obtain from the list?
Business Statistics Marks
◼ A student enrolled in a business
program is attending the first
class of the required statistics
course. The student is somewhat
apprehensive because he believes
the myth that the course is
difficult. To alleviate his anxiety,
the student asks the professor
about last year’s marks. The
professor obliges and provides a
list of the final marks, which is
composed of term work plus the
final exam. What information can
the student obtain from the list?
Case Pepsi’ Agreement
Case Pepsi’ Agreement
1. What Is Statistics?
3. Characterizing Data
Decision-
e.g., Average
Making
1. What is statistics?
◼ Economics ◼ Engineering
◼ Forecasting ◼ Construction
◼ Demographics ◼ Materials
◼ Sports ◼ Business
◼ Individual & Team ◼ Consumer
Performance Preferences
◼ Financial Trends
Objectives of Statistics
B Drawing conclusions
making estimates,
decisions,
predictions, etc.
about sets of data based on sampling
Types of Statistics
◼ Statistics
◼ The branch of mathematics that transforms data into
useful information for decision makers.
◼ Collect data
◼ e.g., Survey
◼ Present data
◼ e.g., Tables and graphs
◼ Characterize data
◼ e.g., Sample mean =
X i
n
Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics
utilizes numerical and graphical methods to
explore data,
i.e., to look for patterns in a data set,
to summarize the information revealed in a
data set,
to present the information in a convenient
form.
Inferential Statistics
◼ Estimation
◼ e.g., Estimate the population
mean weight using the sample
mean weight
◼ Hypothesis testing
◼ e.g., Test the claim that the
population mean weight is 120
pounds
◼ Data
◼ facts or information that is relevant or appropriate to
a decision maker
◼ Parameter
◼ a summary measure (e.g., mean) that is computed
Population Sample
Types of
Data
Quantitative Qualitative
Data Data
Quantitative Data
Measured on a numeric 4
scale.
943
Number of defective
items in a lot. 21 52
◼Salaries of CEOs of
$ Credit
Example
◼ Chemical and manufacturing plants sometimes
discharge toxic-waste materials such as DDT
into nearby rivers and streams. These toxins
can adversely affect the plants and animals
inhabiting the river and the riverbank. The U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers conducted a study of
fish in the Tennessee River (in Alabama) and its
three tributary creeks: Flint Creek, Limestone
Creek, and Spring Creek. A total of 144 fish
were captured, and the following variables were
measured for each: (continued on next slide)
Example (cont)
◼ 1. River/creek where each fish was captured
◼ 2. Species (channel catfish, largemouth bass,
or smallmouth buffalo fish)
◼ 3. Length (centimeters)
◼ 4. Weight (grams)
◼ 5. DDT concentration (parts per million)
Data
Categorical Numerical
Examples:
◼ Marital Status
◼ Political Party Discrete Continuous
◼ Eye Color
(Defined categories) Examples: Examples:
◼ Number of Children ◼ Weight
◼ Defects per hour ◼ Voltage
(Counted items) (Measured characteristics)
Levels of Measurement
▪ Primary Sources: The data collector is the one using the data
for analysis
▪ Data from a political survey
▪ Data collected from an experiment
▪ Observed data
▪ Secondary Sources: The person performing data analysis is
not the data collector
▪ Analyzing census data
▪ Examining data from print journals or data published on the internet.
5. Sources of Data
Published source:
book, journal, newspaper, Web site
(https://www.wider.unu.edu/data),
https://data.worldbank.org/
Designed experiment:
researcher exerts strict control over the units
Survey:
a group of people are surveyed and their
responses are recorded
Observation study:
units are observed in natural setting and variables
of interest are recorded
Designed Experiment
Questionnaires
supposed to be measured
◼ Reliable: measures the quantity or concept in a
consistent or reproducible manner
◼ Unbiased: measures the quantity or concept in
questionnaire:
Step 1: Write out the primary and secondary aims
of your study.
Step 2: Write out concepts/information to be
collected that relates to these aims.
Step 3: Review the current literature to identify
already validated questionnaires that measure
your specific area of interest.
Step 4: Compose a draft of your questionnaire.
Step 5: Revise the draft.
Step 6: Assemble the final questionnaire.
Step 1: Define the aims of the 74
study
Compose a draft
Compose a draft
Compose a draft
Compose a draft
Compose a draft
Compose a draft
◼ Question:
◼ (1) Do you currently have a life insurance policy?
(Circle: Yes or No)
◼ If no, go to question 3.
◼ (2) How much is your annual life insurance premium?
◼ Principle: Avoid branching as much as possible
to avoid confusing respondents.
◼ Solution: If possible, write as one question.
◼ How much did you spend last year for life insurance?
(Write 0 if none).
84
Step 5: Revise
questionnaire
questionnaire
◼ Include white space to make answers clear and
to help increase response rate.
◼ Space response scales widely enough so that it
is easy to circle or check the correct answer
without the mark accidentally including the
answer above or below.
◼ Open-ended questions: the space for the response
should be big enough to allow respondents with large
handwriting to write comfortably in the space.
◼ Closed-ended questions: line up answers vertically
and precede them with boxes or brackets to check, or
by numbers to circle, rather than open blanks.
92
Non-responders
Conclusions