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Lesson-4 Probability-EDA
Lesson-4 Probability-EDA
A wide range of topics with a lot of application in so many different fields. In general,
one way that statistics is the method of analyzing data, which can either be quantitative
(numerical) or qualitative (categorical, as transformed by researchers into numbers). It also
includes the whole process of using scientific methods to answer questions that will help us
in making decisions. These methods can be used in answering questions like:
What type and how much data are needed?
How are we going to organize the data?
How are we going to analyze and interpret the data?
What are the conclusions that can be drawn from the analyzed data?
Based on these questions, we will define Statistics as branch of science that deals
with the collection, presentation, analysis, and interpretation of data.
Two branches of Statistics:
Descriptive statistics is concerned with collecting, describing, and analyzing the
subset of data without drawing conclusions or inferences about the set of data.
Inferential statistics is the concerned with the analysis of the subset of data leading to
prediction or inferences about the said set of data. The main purpose of inferential statistics
is to make conclusions, generalization, predictions, or inferences about the entire set of data
based from a part of it.
The two sets of data:
Population Sample
Population is the entire set from which the sample is drawn. It is the sets of all elements of
a given observational units under study with at least one characteristics. In common.
Populations may consist of, but are not limited to, people, objects, or events.
Take the example:
All first year students in CEAT enrolled in RTU
The sample drawn from the population is a subset of the population from which data
is collected.
Assuming that the population is the one stated above, could be
“The first year female students in CEAT enrolled in RTU”
it could be
“The first year male students in CEAT enrolled in RTU”
The numerical measure that describes the population of interest under study is called
parameter, while the numerical measure of the sample is called statistic.
An example of parameter of the population stated above can be,
“The average height of first year students in CEAT enrolled in RTU”
In relation to these, a statistic that will estimate the stated parameter would be,
“The average height of first year female students enrolled in RTU”
RANDOM EXPERIMENT:
Random experiment is an action or process that leads to one several possible
outcomes.
Example: Random Experiment Possible Outcomes
Tossing a coin
Casting a die
SAMPLE SPACE:
Sample space(S) is a list of all possible outcomes of an experiment
So, in the coin toss experiment, we have two sample point, - the head and the tail.
Therefore the cardinality of the space is also two. Thus,
=HH
=HT
=TH
=TT
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood of the occurrence of an
event. The probability of the occurrence of an event P (E) . If all possible outcomes
can be listed and the occurrence of each outcome is equally likely, we can compute
the probability of an event using the formula:
Event: Getting exactly 2 heads when
tossing coin twice
Where: n(E) = number of occurrence of E in the
space
n(S) = cardinality of the sample space
Example1:
Find the probability of getting exactly 2
heads when tossing a coin twice.
Solution:
Example2:
Find the probability of drawing a face card in a well shuffled a standard deck of
cards.
Solution:
Example 3:
An urn contains 3 blue balls and 2 red balls. What is the probability that you get 2
different colored balls if you ask to get one ball, record its color, replace it in the urn
and then get another ball? (this experiment is “with replacement”)
Using tree diagram: with replacement
B B B R R
1 2 3 1 2
B B R R B B R R B B B R
2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 1
B B R R B B B R
1 3 1 2 1 2 3 2
The first 5 branches are simple events when you get the first ball
The second branches are the simple events when you replace the first ball and get
the another one.
Using tree diagram: with replacement
The total number of possible outcomes is 25 since 5*5
And there are 12 sets of different colors
B B B R R
1 2 3 1 2
B B R R B B R R B B B R
2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 1
B1R1 B B R R
B3R1
B B B R
R2B1
1 3 1 2 1 2 3 2
B1R2 B3R2
B2R1 R1B1 R2B2
B2R2 R1B2 R2B3
R1B3
B1Y
B1B2
B1R1
B1R2
B2Y
B2B1
B2R1
B2R2
R1Y
R1B1
R1B2
R1R2
R2Y
R2B1
R2B2
R2R1
We will use the addition of probabilities in answering the above example
If A is the event that both candies are both red or both blue, then
Thus,
A candy dish contains one yellow, two blue, and two red candies.
You close your eyes, choose one candy one a time from the dish
and record their colors. What is that the two candies have the same
colors?
COUNTING TECHNIQUES
The mn Rule
Consider an experiment that is performed I two stages. If the first stage can be
accomplished in m ways and for each of these ways, the second stage can be
accomplished in n ways, then are mn ways to accomplish the experiment. This rule
can be extended in more than two stages.
Example 1:
In how many ways can Liza, Chat, and Tess line up in a row to have their group
Picture taken if
a. they can occupy any place they wish?
b. Liza and Tess wish to pose side by side?
Solution:
There are m = 3 choices ( 3 ladies) for the first position;
n = 2 for the second position; and.
p = 1 for the third position
Therefore: N = mnp = 3(2)(1) = 6 ways In how many ways can Liza, Chat, and Tess line up in a
row to have their group Picture taken if they can occupy
any place they wish?
COUNTING TECHNIQUES
b. Liza and Tess wish to pose side by side?
Consider two groups composed of the group of Liza and Tess and other
group composed of Chat.
(2)(1) = 2 ways
Solution:
a. A 3-digit number is composed of hundreds, tens, and units digits. Since there are
no restrictions (with repetition) then the numbers can be repeated.
Therefore , there are
6 numbers to choose from for the hundreds digit (zero is not included)
7 numbers to choose from for the tens digit, and also
7 numbers to choose from for the units digit
Using mn rule:
The tree diagram will prove and helpful in understanding the solution better.
hundreds tens units hundreds tens units hundreds tens units
3 2
1 5
2 1 3
It’s your turn, to do the last part How many 3-digit numbers can be constructed from t
he digits 0,1,2,3,4,5, and 8 if Then number must be Even
and greater than 300 and repetition is not allowed?
COUNTING TECHNIQUES
A fx driver can take 2 routes from PASIG market(A) to SM megamall (B), 5 routes
from
SM megamall (B) to Mandaluyong Hypermarket(C), 3 routes form Mandaluyong
Hypermarket, 3 routes form Mandaluyong Hypermarket (C) to SM Manila (D), If
traveling from A to D , the fx driver must proceed from A to B to C to D, how many
possible A to D routes are available?
Solution:
Therefore , the total number of ways to construct a complete route, taking one
sub route from each of the three groups
N = mnp = (2)(5)(3) = 30 ways
Compound Events
Compound events consisting of two or more events.
RULES OF PROBABILITY
ADDITION RULE OF PROBABILITY
Here events can either be mutually exclusive or non-mutually
exclusive.
Events A and B are mutually exclusive if there are no elements in A that are
found in B.
This characterized by the conjunction “or”.
For example 1:
What is the probability of getting at least one head in tossing a coin twice or
getting a “5” in casting a dice once.
For example 1:
What is the probability of getting at least one head in tossing a coin twice or getting
a “5” in casting a die once.
Solution:
For example 1:
What is the probability of getting at least one head in tossing a coin
twice
or getting a “5” in casting a dice once.
For example 2:
What is the probability of getting “4” or “5” as the sum of the results in casting a
pair of dice?
Solution:
For example 2:
What is the probability of getting “4” or “5” as the sum of the
results
in casting a pair of die?
For example 3:
What is the probability of drawing a heart (H) or a king from a standard deck of
cards?If there are elements in A that are also present in B, A and B are said to non-
mutually exclusive events. The probability on non- mutually events A and B can
be found using the formula
Solution:
Probability of drawing a heart from
standard deck of cards?
For example 4:
What is the probability of the occurrence of a
number
that is odd or less than 5 when a dice is rolled?
MULTIPLICATION RULE
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events are said to be independent events if the occurrence or non –
occurrence of one events gives no information about the likeliness of the
occurrence of the other. This means that the information about one event does
not change the probability of the other event.
Example 1:
Two cards are drawn in succession
with replacement.t is the probability of
drawing an ace (A) on the first draw and a
face card (F) on the second drawn.
Example 1:
Two cards are drawn in succession with replacement.t is the probability of
drawing an ace (A) on the first draw and a face card (F) on the second drawn.
Solution;
Probability of drawing an ace (A): Face card (F) on the second drawn;
Example 1:
Two cards are drawn in succession with
replacement.t
is the probability of drawing an ace (A) on the first
draw and a face card (F) on the second drawn.
DEPENDENT EVENTS
When two events occur, if the outcome of one event affects the outcome of the
other they are called dependent events.
Example1:
A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens.
If 2 pens are drawn at the random from the
pack.
NOT replaced and then another pen is drawn.
What is the probability of drawing 2 blue and
1Solution:
black pen?
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen
Example1:
A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens.
If 2 pens are drawn at the random from the
pack.
NOT replaced and then another pen is drawn.
What is the probability of drawing 2 blue and
1 black pen?
Example 2:
What is the probability of drawing a king and a queen consecutively from a deck of
standard deck of card without replacement?
Solution:
Example 2:
What is the probability of drawing a king and a
queen
consecutively from a deck of standard deck of card
without replacement?
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Conditional probability is calculating the probability of an event given that another
event has already occurred.
or it can be stated,
Example:
A single coin is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of getting at least one
head?
These are the possible outcomes when a coin is flipped 5 times in a row
Solution:
Using complement:
A genius is a talented
person who does his
homew k.
Thomas A. Edison