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FINAL EXAM WM0801TU Introduction to Safety Science

JANUARY 19TH 2021, 13.30 – 16.30H.

Please read carefully the instructions and integrity statement at this cover page, and fill in the
box.

Instructions

• This exam consists of 40 multiple choice questions. Each multiple choice question has
exactly 1 correct answer. An empty answer is penalized in the same way as a wrong answer.
• This is an open book exam; you are allowed to access the teaching materials of the
course during the exam.
• You are allowed to use a dictionary.
• You are allowed to use a simple calculator or an excel spreadsheet to make calculations.
• Plagiarism is not allowed - all answers should be written in student’s own words.
• This is an individual exam. Students are not allowed to collaborate with each other in
any way during the exam.
• In case the teachers suspect fraud, (i) a student may be asked to take an oral exam to
check whether the understanding of the student is in line with the content of the submitted exam,
(ii) the submitted exams will be checked for plagiarism, and (iii) the Board of Examiners will be
informed.

Statement of integrity

By participating in this exam, you take the responsibility to adhere to the ethical standards of
behaviour expected of you, and you understand the consequences of failing to do so. We trust
you to answer the questions to the best of your own ability, without seeking or accepting the
help of any source that is not explicitly allowed by the conditions of this exam.

Please type in the space below the word "Agree" to declare that you agree with this statement.

The time available to complete your exam is 180 minutes. When the time slot has finished, you
will be unable to submit your answers. So please submit your answers before 16.30h.

Success with your exam!

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1. A car driver forgets to indicate at a road junction. Which kind of human error is made here?

a. A lapse
b. A slip
c. A rule-based mistake
d. A non-compliance error

2. An individual has no rules or routines available to handle an unusual situation and resorts to
first principles and experience to solve the problem. This is an example of a:

a. Knowledge based mistake

b. A rule-based mistake
c. A slip
d. A lapse

3. Given the following payoff matrix of safety decisions D1 to D3 and safety states S1 to S3:

According to a Minimax Regret Criterion, how much will be the minimum of your maximum
regret?
a. 0
b. 24
c. 48
d. None of the above

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4.Given the following pay-off matrix with 2 scenarios S1 and S2 and 2 safety measures
D1 and D2:

S2 S1:
:
D1: 5000 780 900

D2: 6000 756 936

According to a Maximin Criterion, how much will be the maximum of the minimum
payoff for the preferred decision?
a. 900
b. 780
c. 936
d. 756

5. Consider the following multi-criteria decision-making problem:

And the following outcomes, where the vertical axis represents the objective function.

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Which decision alternative is preferred based on the criterion Driving?

a. Audi A4
b. Citroen Xantia
c. Opel Vectra
d. VW Passat

6. A father brings his daughter to the sports lesson instead of her music school. What kind of
human failure type took place here?

a. A lapse
b. A slip
c. A rule-based mistake
d. A knowledge based mistake

7. What is roughly the average number of casualties per year in the Netherlands due to non-
natural causes of death?
a. 50
b. 750
c. 6000
d. 150.000

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8. Given a generic decision tree in the next figure:

Which of the following statements is true:

1. A ={a1, a2, a3} is the set of all possible actions (a), of which one must be chosen
2. Θ={ θ1, θ2, θ3} is the set of all possible results (θ)
3. Ω={ ω1, ω2, ω3} the set of all possible states (ω), which are functions of the actions
and results: ω = f(a, θ)
4. All of the above

9. How can the problem of the acceptable level of risk also be formulated as an economic
decision problem?
1. The expenditure for a safer system is equated with the gain made by decreasing the
present value of the risk.
2. To model the basic cycle and generic structure of risk management
3. By conducting a Monte Carlo simulation with sensitivity analysis
4. All of the above

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10. Which simplification is the main disadvantage of fault tree analysis?

1. P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ⋂ B)
2. P(A ⋂ B) = Ф
3. P(A ⋂ B) = P(A) P(B)
4. P(A ⋂ B) = P(A) P(B|A)

11. The costs to defend the computer systems in sector A of a large company are €5
million, whereas the costs to defend the computer systems in sector B of the company are
a bit lower and equal to €3 million. The company can only afford to defend one of the
two sectors A or B, and it can be assumed that the defence is completely effective, so an
attack on a defended sector does no damage. However, if one of the two sectors will be
successfully attacked the costs of failure will be huge. The costs of failure for sector A
are €500 million and for sector B €700 million. It is uncertain which sector will be
attacked and the adversarial entity can only afford to attack one sector of the company.
Therefore, both the company and the attacker must make their choices simultaneously,
each in ignorance of what the other has done, resulting in a mixed strategy in which each
player chooses probabilistically among his or her strategies. Determine, with the above
information, what is the probability that the company decides to defend sector A?
a. 5/12
b. 702/1200
c. 7/12
d. None of the above

12. If the TE fails, a cost of $10 will be incurred. To reduce the risk, the failure
probabilities of A, B, and C can be reduced from P to P’ at a cost as listed in the table
below. Based on a cost-benefit analysis, which component should be considered?

1. A TE
2. B
3. C Component P P’ Cost ($)
4. None of them A 0.3 0.1 1
E1 E2
B 0.4 0.1 1
C 0.4 0.2 1

A B C A C

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13. In the event tree below, P(Fire) = 0.1, P(Sprinkler fails) = 0.2 and P(Alarm fails) = 0.1. Which
consequence is the most unlikely outcome?
a. C1 Sprinkler Alarm
b. C2 fails fails
No C1: Minor damage
c. C3 & no injury
d. C4 No
Yes C2: Minor damage
& minor injury
Fire
No C3: Major damage
& minor injury
Yes
Yes C4: Major damage
& major injury

14.In what way(s) does independent accident investigation contribute to further

improvement of safety?
a. It can enforce measures to be taken by relevant parties.
b. It can uncover previously unknown accident mechanisms.
c. It can raise further attention to known safety issues.
d. It can punish those responsible to avoid recurrence.

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15. The following observations at highway A12 have been collected. What is the
empirical probability of having no accident in case of drunk driving?
a. 30/100
Drunk Not Drunk Total
b. 30/200
Accidents 70 20 90
c. 30/110
No Accidents 30 80 110
d. 30/90
Total 100 100 200

16. Consider the following navigator map, with 2 islands and 5 bridges, in order to study
the loss of connectivity from H to W (Home to Work):

Assume that the unavailability of every bridges is 0.1, and that the bridges can be
considered independent from one another. What is the upperbound of the
unavailability of the system (i.e. the probability of loss of connectivity from H to W)?
a. 0.03
b. 0.01
c. 0.5
d. 0.1

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17. Consider the following navigator map, with 2 islands and 5 bridges, in order to study
the loss of connectivity from H to W (Home to Work):

Assume that the unavailability of every bridges is 0.1, and that the bridges can be considered
independent from one another. Based on the FV risk importance measure, which bridge is the
most critical one for the system?
a. Bridge 1
b. Bridge 3
c. Bridge 4
d. Bridge 5

18. If the TE fails, a cost of €50 will be incurred. To reduce the risk, the failure probabilities of A,
B, and C can be reduced from P to P’ at a cost as listed in the table below. Based on a cost-
benefit analysis, which component should be considered?
a. A TE
Component P P’ Cost (€)
b. B
A 0.3 0.1 3
c. C
B 0.4 0.1 3
d. None of the above E1 E2 E3 C 0.2 0.1 3

A B A C B C

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19. Which of the following statement is true?

a. In nuclear engineering, passive safety contrasts to active safety in that it relies on

operator or computer automated intervention, whereas active safety systems rely on
the laws of nature to make the reactor respond to dangerous events in a favourable
manner.
b. The computer operated control rods in a nuclear power station provide an active safety
system, whereas a fuel that produces less heat at abnormally high temperatures
constitutes a passive safety feature.
c. Active safety measures are preferred in the nuclear industry over passive safety
measures.
d. All of the above.

20. Which of the following examples is an example of a passive safety measure in a car?
a. The seat belt
b. Cruise control
c. Early warning of severe braking ahead
d. All of the above

21. Which of the following are objectives set out by the machine directive?
a. To ensure that machines used in the EU are safe
b. To ensure all machines sold in the EU and beyond are safe
c. To protect the EU market from overseas products
d. To allow free trading of machinery within the EU territory

22. Which of the following examples are examples of Fault Tolerant Design?
a. The ability to undo actions or series of actions.
b. The locking of doors to prevent unauthorized access to the building, in case of a fire
emergency.
c. The improvement of automobile safety by removing blind spots
d. All of the above

23. Given the following pay-off matrix with 2 scenarios S1 and S2 and 2 safety measures
D1 and D2:

S2 S1:
:
D1: 5000 780 900

D2: 6000 756 936

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The probability of both scenarios S1 and S2 are 50%. We are trying to maximize the pay-
off. What is the value which you are willing to pay for eliminating the uncertainty in this
decision problem?
a. 10
b. 12
c. 20
d. 24

24. Why is a mechanical hand-drill not subject to the Machine Directive?

a. It can be made without metal
b. The machine is too simple
c. There are no known lethal accidents with hand drills
d. It is human powered

25. Which of the following machines have special regulations (and thereby exempt from
the Machine Directive)?
a. Turbines offshore windmills
b. A dentist drill
c. A welding robot
d. None of the above

26. Which of the following require CE certification through the Machine Directive?
a. Explosives for civil uses (such as found in an airbag)
b. Low-voltage equipment (such as your phone)
c. Simple pressure vessels (such as propane tanks)
d. A Lift (such as a personnel lift in a high-rise)

27. Which of the following require CE certification?

a. Explosives for civil uses (such as found in an airbag)
b. Low-voltage equipment (such as your phone)
c. Simple pressure vessels (such as propane tanks)
d. All of the above

28. What is the most accurate explanation of the system failure (Sys)?
a. Sys = (A U C) ⋂ B ⋂ D
A C
b. Sys = (A ⋂ B) U (B ⋂ C) U D
c. Sys = (A ⋂ C) U (B ⋂ D) D

d. Sys = (A U B) ⋂ (C U D) ⋂ D B

29. Given the failure probabilities of P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = 0.2, what is the reliability of the system?

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1. 0.80
2. 0.96 A B
3. 1.0
C
4. 0.64

30. What is the most accurate explanation of the system failure (Sys)?
1. Sys = (A U C) ⋂ (B U D) ⋂ (A U D)
A C
2. Sys = (A ⋂ B) U (C ⋂ D) U (A ⋂ D)
3. Both 1 and 2
4. None of the above B D

31. Which of the following processes is not part of risk management?

a. Identifying hazards
b. Maintaining staff competency
c. Installing and barriers
d. Monitoring barriers

32. In front end system engineering the function allocation of man machine tasks is
done

a. after the mission, scenario and function analysis

b. always before and not after the function analysis
c. after the system performance prediction
d. after the scenario description

33. Which new failure mechanism is introduced by autonomous vehicles?

a. Pattern recognition errors
b. Engine failure
c. Human error
d. Ageing

34. The law of small numbers holds that:

a. People believe on intuitive grounds that a large sample will reflect the
properties of the population well
b. People believe on intuitive grounds that the law of the large numbers is valid
for small samples
c. People believe on intuitive grounds that a large sample will not reflect the
properties of the population well

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d. People believe on intuitive grounds that the law of the large numbers is not
valid for small samples

34. Which actors are involved in the safety of dangerous machines?

a. Manufacturer
b. Inspectorate
c. Operator
d. All of the above

35. Decision theory as used in the heuristics and biases approach of Amos Tversky
and Daniel Kahnman is an example of:
a. Normative decision theory
b. Descriptive decision theory
c. Prescriptive theory
d. a) and c)

36. What are the minimal cut sets of this fault tree (top event T)?
a. {A} {B} {C}
b. {A} {B} {DC}
c. {A} {B} {C} {EC}
d. {A} {B} {C} {ADE} {ADEC}

37. General failure types are examples of ______, and unsafe acts are examples of
______.

a. Active errors, Latent errors

b. Latent errors, Active errors
c. Organizational precursors, Psychological precursors
d. None of the above

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38. What can be the problem of statements like ‘80% of incidents is caused by
human error”?
a. Focus on the individual component.
b. Management will probably think that removing (operational) workers out of
the system will always improve safety.
c. Investigation easily leads to blaming people who are involved in the incident.
d. All the above are true.

39. The Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT) involves:

a. Analysis of human factors
b. Risk analysis and barriere analysis
c. Change analysis and sequence analysis
d. All of the above

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