LIVING IN THE ENVIRONMENT, 18e

G. TYLER MILLER • SCOTT E. SPOOLMAN

Lyceum of Iligan Foundation

GE Elective 2:
People and the Earth’s Ecosystem

The Human Population and Its

Impact
©©Cengage
CengageLearning
Learning2015
2015
Core Case Study: Planet Earth: Population
7 Billion

• The evolution of Homo sapiens and a total

population of 2 billion has taken 200,000
years
• It has taken less than 50 years to reach
the second 2 billion
• It took 25 years to add the third 2 billion
• Twelve years later, the population topped
7.1 billion
• What is a
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sustainable human population?
Core Case Study: Planet Earth: Population 7 Billion

Billions of people
2011 (7 billion)
1999 (6 billion)
1987 (5 billion)
1974 (4 billion)
1960 (3 billion)
1930 (2 billion)
1800 (1 billion)

Time
Hunting and Agricultural revolution Industrial
gathering revolution
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Fig. 6-1, p. 122
How Do Environmental Scientists Think
about Human Population Growth?

• The continuing rapid growth of the human

population and its impacts on natural
capital raise questions about how long the
human population can keep growing

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 Is the World Overpopulated?
• The world’s population is projected to increase from
6.6 billion to 8.9 billion between 2006 and 2050.
• The debate over interactions among population
growth, economic growth, politics, and moral beliefs
is one of the most important and controversial
issues in environmental science.
• Much of the world’s population growth occurs in
developing countries like China and India.
• Some argue that the planet has too many people.
• Some feel that the world can support billions of
more people due to technological advances.
• There is a constant debate over the need to reduce
population growth.
– Must consider moral, religious, and personal
freedom.
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Human Population Growth Shows Certain
Trends

• Rate of population growth has slowed in

recent decades
• Human population growth is unevenly
distributed geographically
• People are moving from rural to urban
areas

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Annual Growth Rate of World Population,
1950-2010

Fig. 6-2, p. 123

 Where Population Growth Occurred, 1950-
2010
World population (in billions)

Population in less-developed countries

Population in more-developed countries

Year

Fig. 6-3, p. 123

Human Population Growth Impacts Natural
Capital

• As the human population grows, so does

the global total human ecological footprint
• Cultural carrying capacity
– Total number of people who could live in
reasonable freedom and comfort indefinitely,
without decreasing the ability of the earth to
sustain future generations

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 Where Are We Headed?

• We do not know how long we

can continue increasing the
earth’s carrying capacity for
humans.
– There are likely to be
between 7.2-10.6 billion
people on earth by 2050.
– 97% of growth in
developing countries living
in acute poverty.
– What is the optimum
sustainable population of
the earth based on the
cultural carrying capacity?
Natural Capital Degradation

Altering Nature to Meet Our Needs

Reducing biodiversity
Increasing use of net primary
productivity
Increasing genetic resistance in
pest species and disease-
causing bacteria
Eliminating many natural
predators
Introducing harmful species into
natural communities

Using some renewable resources

faster than they can be replenished
Disrupting natural chemical
cycling and energy flow
Relying mostly on polluting and
climate-changing fossil fuels
Fig. 6-4, p. 125
 FACTORS AFFECTING HUMAN
POPULATION SIZE
• Population increases
because of births and
immigration and
decreases through
deaths and emigration.

• Instead of using raw

numbers, crude birth
rates and crude death
rates are used (based
on total number of
births or deaths per
1,000 people in a
population).
Women Are Having Fewer Babies, But the
World’s Population Is Still Growing

• Fertility rate
– Number of children born to a woman during
her lifetime
• Replacement-level fertility rate
– Average number of children a couple must
have to replace themselves
– Approximately 2.1 in developed countries
– Up to 2.5 in developing countries

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The World’s Population Is Still Growing
(cont’d.)
• Total fertility rate (TFR)
– Average number of
children born to
women in a population
– Between 1955 and
2012, the global TFR
dropped from 5 to 2.4
– However, to eventually
halt population growth,
the global TFR will
have to drop to 2.1

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FACTORS AFFECTING HUMAN
POPULATION SIZE
• Average crude
and birth rates
for various
groupings of
countries in
2006.

Figure 9-3
Case Study: The U.S. Population – Third
Largest and Growing

• Population still growing and not leveling off

– 76 million in 1900
– 314 million by 2012
• Drop in TFR in U.S.
– Rate of population growth has slowed
• What have been some changes in lifestyle
in the U.S. during the 20th century?

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 Total Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rates
Births per woman

Baby boom Replacement

(1946–64) level

• The baby bust that followed the baby boom was largely
due to delayed marriage, contraception, and abortion.

Fig. 6-5, p. 127

 Life expectancy 47 years
77 years

Married women working 8%

outside the home 81%

High school 15%

graduates 83%

Homes with flush 10%

toilets 98%

Homes with 2%
electricity 99%

Living in 10%
suburbs 52%
1900
Hourly manufacturing job $3
2000
wage (adjusted for inflation) $15

Homicides per 1.2

100,000 people 5.8
Stepped Art
Fig. 6-7, p. 132
Case Study: The U.S. Population – Third
Largest and Growing (cont’d.)

• Immigration
– U.S. has admitted almost twice as many
immigrants and refugees as all other
countries combined

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 Legal Immigration to
the United States
Number of legal immigrants (thousands)

1907
1914
New laws
restrict
immigration

Great
Depression

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Fig. 6-6, p. 127
Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility
Rates
• The number of children women have is affected by:
– The cost of raising and educating them.
– Availability of pensions.
– Urbanization.
– Education and employment opportunities.
– Infant deaths.
– Marriage age.
– Availability of contraception and abortion.
– Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms
– Children as part of the labor force
Several Factors Affect Death Rates

• Life expectancy
• Infant mortality rate
– Number of live births that die in first year
• High infant mortality rate indicates:
– Insufficient food
– Poor nutrition
– High incidence of infectious disease

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Several Factors Affect Death Rates (cont’d.)

Less-developed
(deaths per 1,000 live births)

countries
Infant mortality rate

World

More-developed
countries

Year Fig. 6-10, p. 129

Migration Affects an Area’s Population Size

• Migration
– The movement of people into and out of
specific geographic areas
• Causes:
– Economic improvement
– Religious and political freedom
– Wars
• Environmental refugees
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How Does a Population’s Age Structure
Affect Its Growth or Decline?
• The number of people in young, middle, and older age
groups determines how fast populations grow or decline.
• The number of people younger than age 15 is the major
factor determining a country’s population growth.
• Changes in the distribution of a country’s age groups
have long-lasting economic and social impacts.

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 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

• Populations with a large proportion of its people in

the preproductive ages 1-14 have a large potential for
rapid population growth.

Figure 9-9
A Population’s Age Structure Helps Us
Make Projections (cont’d.)

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Fig. 6-12, p. 132
Case Study: The American Baby Boom

– Today, baby boomers make up nearly half of

all adult Americans and dominate the
populations demand for goods and services.

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Populations Made Up of Mostly Older
People Can Decline Rapidly

• Slow decline
– Manageable
• Rapid decline
– Economic problems
• Proportionally fewer young people working
• Labor shortages

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 Some Problems with Rapid
Population Decline

Can threaten economic growth

Labor shortages

Less government revenues with fewer

workers

Less entrepreneurship and new

business formation

Less likelihood for new technology

development

Increasing public deficits to fund higher

pension and health-care costs

Pensions may be cut and retirement age

increased
Fig. 6-14, p. 133
Populations Can Decline due to a Rising
Death Rate: The AIDS Tragedy

• AIDS has killed more than 30 million

people
• Many young adults die – loss of most
productive workers
• Sharp drop in life expectancy
• International community
– Reduce the spread of HIV through education
and health care
– Financial assistance and volunteers
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The AIDS Tragedy (cont’d.)

Fig. 6-15, p. 134

How Can We Slow Human Population
Growth?
o Family planning has been a major factor in reducing the
number of births and abortions throughout most of the
world.
Women tend to have fewer children if they are:
• Educated.
• Hold a paying job outside the home.
• Do not have their human right suppressed.
The best way to slow population growth is a combination of:
• Investing in family planning.
• Reducing poverty.
• Elevating the status of women.
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The First Step Is to Promote Economic
Development
• Demographic Transition: As countries become
economically developed, their birth and death
rates tend to decline.
Preindustrial stage: little population growth due to high
infant mortality.
Transitional stage: industrialization begins, death rates
drops and birth rates remain high.
Industrial stage: birth rate drops and approaches death
rate.
Postindustrial Stage: birth rate drops below death rate.

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 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Preindustrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial
Population Population grows rapidly Population growth Population growth
grows very because birth rates are high and slows as both birth levels off and then
slowly because death rates drop because of and death rates declines as birth
of a high improved food production and drop because of rates equal and
birth rate health improved food then fall below
(to compensate production, health, death rates
(number per 1,000 per year)

for high infant and education

Birth rate and death rate

80 mortality) and a
70 high death rate
Total population
60
Birth rate
50
40
30
20 Death rate

10
0
Low Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative
Growth rate over time

Stepped Art
Fig. 6-16, p. 135
Case Study: Slowing Population
Growth in India

• Population: 1.26 billion people in 2012

• Problems
– Poverty, malnutrition, and environmental
degradation
• Causes
– Bias toward having male children
– Poor couples want many children
– Only 47% of couples use family planning

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 India’s Failed
Family Planning Program
• Poor planning.
• Bureaucratic inefficiency.
• Low status of women.
• Extreme poverty.
• Lack of administrative financial support.
• Disagreement over the best ways to slow
population growth.
Case Study: Slowing Population
Growth in India (cont’d.)

Fig. 6-20, p. 137

 China’s Family Planning Program
• Currently, China’s TFR is 1.6
children per women.
• China has moved 300 million
people out of poverty.
• Problems:
– Strong male preference
leads to gender
imbalance.
– Average population age
is increasing.
– Not enough resource to
support population.
Three Big Ideas

• The human population is increasing

rapidly and may soon bump up against
environmental limits
• Increasing use of resources per person
– Expanding the overall human ecological
footprint and putting a strain on the earth’s
resources

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Three Big Ideas (cont’d.)

• We can slow population growth by

reducing poverty through economic
development, elevating the status of
women, and encouraging family planning

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