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RESERVOIR
DEVELOPMENT
M. RAFIQUL ISLAM
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v
vi Contents
Petroleum fluids are natural and have been used in harmony with nature from the dawn of
civilization. Sustainable petroleum development is inherently logical, yet for decades, the
phrase “sustainable petroleum” has become an oxymoron. Scientists are talking about “car-
bon-free energy”—a scientific oxymoron as if it is a viable alternative to today’s technological
disaster. In the name of “science,” there has been a growing trend of dogmatic solutions
forced on the world by the ruling elite. This is not new. Nearly a century ago, a prime
scholarly organization, Nature, wrote,
UNLIKE most problems concerning origins, which have but a philosophic, or academic interest, that
of the genesis of petroleum has a distinctly practical significance, for if solved, prospectors for mineral oil
would be provided with important data and chemists might learn how to produce artificially valuable
substances similar to, if not identical with, natural petroleum. Man’s fertile imagination has spun
not only an embarrassing number of speculations and hypotheses concerning the nature of the raw ma-
terial or materials from which petroleum has been derived, but also innumerable explanations of the
modus operandi of its formation.
Note how this 100-year-old article spins one out of the research trajectory by defining the
only “real” intention behind any research, and then leads one toward “settled science.” And,
what is “settled science”? It is whatever process that is most accepted by scientists, each of
whom can be bought. Among the vast majority of the “scientific” world, there is a natural
tendency to mock anyone advancing any argument against the so-called “settled science,”
irrespective of the logicality of the argument. This is then followed by anything the “scientist”
would say about anything as “fact,” no matter how egregious. Be it manufacturing cow-free
burgers and milk or dimming the sun with toxic chemicals would pass for “science,” while
anyone advancing an “alternate” explanation would be ridiculed. This is not a scholarly fo-
rum where real science can survive.a As such, this book series on sustainable petroleum de-
velopment is a remarkably courageous undertaking. It is no surprise that this book starts
challenging the sustainability criterion that in itself has seen a yo-yo motion with dozens
of definitions floating around. This book is founded on logical discourse—something that
has been missing from new science. The readership must be reminded that it is new science
that has made the following transition in the past and is poised to continue along the same
path.
a
Kraychik, R., 2019, Greenpeace Founder: Global Warming Hoax Pushed by Corrupt Scientists ‘Hooked on
Government Grants’, Breitbart. March 7
vii
viii Foreword
This book rises above new science rhetoric and prophecies of the profiteers and brings back
real science to show how petroleum reservoir engineering can become sustainable. Anyone
familiar with petroleum operations will appreciate the breadth and depth of this book.
G.V. Chilingarian
University of Southern California
C H A P T E R
1
Introduction
The evolution of human civilization is synonymous with how it meets its energy needs.
Some may argue that the human race has become progressively more civilized with time.
Yet, for the first time in human history, an energy crisis has seized the entire globe and
the very sustainability of this civilization itself has suddenly come into question. If humanity
has actually progressed as a species, it must exhibit, as part of its basis, some evidence that
overall efficiency in energy consumption has improved. In terms of energy consumption, this
would mean that less energy is required per capita to sustain life today than, say, 50 years
earlier. However, exactly the opposite has happened. The oil price has been tumbled into neg-
ative territory. For the oil business, which is used to roller coaster rides in prices, this was a
new low and highlights the need for a paradigm shift in managing this valuable resource,
which is the driver of modern civilization. The scenario has become more complex by invok-
ing ‘climate change hysteria’, which is not based on science (Islam and Khan, 2019). With the
increasing politicization of fossil fuels and the ensuing global ‘climate emergency’ agenda, the
original thrust of sustainability is all but abandoned, as if petroleum resources cannot be de-
veloped sustainably. This book on Sustainable Petroleum development is all about introduc-
ing technologies that would make petroleum operations sustainable. Islam and Hossain, 2020
presented such technologies for sustainable drilling, whereas this volume is dedicated to
presenting technologies for sustainable reservoir development.
A true paradigm shift can be invoked by introducing zero-waste engineering into all as-
pects of petroleum resource development. The zero-waste mode assures that the proposed
recovery mode is sustainable under all scenarios of oil prices. In recent years, Islam and
his research group (Islam et al., 2010; Islam and Khan, 2019) have demonstrated that current
practices of oil and gas production operations are not sustainable. The principal impediment
to sustainability is the introduction of synthetic chemicals, which are introduced at various
levels of oil and gas production. Previously, it has been demonstrated that conventional ‘re-
newable’ technologies are less sustainable than conventional oil recovery and processing
schemes (Islam et al., 2018). In reservoir evaluation and reserve assessment, century-old tech-
nologies are used. Fundamental mathematical formulas and scientific descriptions of oil and
True
Nature
MIDEAVAL PRACTICES
Non-linearity/
Complexity
Current Practices
“ Technological disaster”
Aphenomenal – Robert Curl (Chemistry Nobel Laureate)
FIG. 1.1 Schematic showing the position of current technological practices related to natural practices.
gas reservoirs have not been updated despite the advent of improved mathematical tools, res-
ervoirs and more accurate scientific models to describe fluid flow through porous media.
Fig. 1.1 shows that current technological practices are focused on short term, linearized
solutions that are also inherently unsustainable. As a result, technological disaster prevailed
in practically every aspect of the post-renaissance era. Petroleum practices are considered to
be the driver of today’s society. Here, modern development is essentially dependent on ar-
tificial products and processes. We have reviewed the post renaissance transition, calling it
the honey-sugar-saccharine-aspartame (HSSA) degradation (Khan and Islam, 2016). In this
allegorical transition, honey (with a real source and process) has been systematically replaced
by Aspartame, which has both a source and a pathway that are highly artificial. This sets in
motion the technology development mode that Nobel Laureate in Chemistry-Robert Curl
called “technological disaster.”
Sustainable petroleum operations development requires a sustainable supply of clean and
affordable energy resources that do not cause negative environmental, economic, and social
consequences. In addition, it should consider a holistic approach where the whole system will
be considered instead of just one sector at a time (Islam et al., 2010). In 2007, our research group
developed an innovative criterion for achieving true sustainability in technological develop-
ment (described in Islam, 2020). New technology should have the potential to be efficient
and functional far into the future in order to ensure true sustainability. Sustainable develop-
ment is seen as having four elements: economic, social, environmental, and technological.
Human civilization is synonymous with carbon-based fuel. The use of fossil fuels for
energy began at the onset of the Industrial Revolution. In the beginning, coal was the fuel
of choice. Shortly before the introduction of oil and gas as the fossil fuel of convenience,
1.2 World energy 3
the scarcity of coal in the coming decades was drummed up (Zatzman, 2012). In this, coal
offered a peculiar distinction. As pointed out by Clark and Jacks (2007), despite enormous
increases in output, the coal industry was credited with little of the national productivity ad-
vance either directly, or indirectly through linkages to steam power, metallurgy, or railways.
The ‘cliometric’ account of coal in the Industrial Revolution is represented in Fig. 1.2. The hor-
izontal axis shows cumulative output since the beginning of extraction in the northeast coal
field, and the vertical axis shows the hypothetical real cost of extraction per ton, which rises
slowly as total extraction increases. However, real extraction costs are only moderately higher
at the cumulative output of the 1860s than at the cumulative output of the 1700s. In this por-
trayal, the supply of coal is elastic. When demand increased, so did output, with little increase
in price at the pithead. But the same expansion of output could have occurred earlier or later
had demand conditions been appropriate. The movement outward in the rate of extraction
was caused by the growth in the population and incomes and incomes, and by improvements
in transport and reductions in taxes which reduced the wedge between pithead prices and
prices to the final consumers.
Although the alarm that the world would run out of coal was sounded over 100 years ago,
this has not been the case. It is true all around the world, but particularly meaningful in the
USA, which achieved energy independence only in recent years.
In 1975, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published the most comprehensive national
assessment of U.S. coal resources, which indicated that, as of January 1, 1974, coal resources
in the United States totaled 4 trillion short tons. Although the USGS has conducted more rec-
ent regional assessments of U.S. coal resources, a new national-level assessment of U.S. coal
resources has not been conducted. His best estimates are published by the U.S. Energy Infor-
mation Administration (EIA), which publishes three measures of how much coal is left in the
United States. The measures are based on various degrees of geologic certainty and on the
economic feasibility of mining coal.
The EIA’s estimates of the amount of coal reserves as of January 1, 2020, by type of reserve
• The Demonstrated Reserve Base (DRB) is the sum of coal in both measured and indicated
resource categories of reliability. The DRB represents 100% of the in-place coal that could
be mined commercially at a given time. The EIA estimates the DRB at about 473 billion
short tons, of which about 69% is underground mineable coal.
• Estimated recoverable reserves include only the coal that can be mined with today’s
mining technology after considering accessibility constraints and recovery factors. The EIA
estimates U.S. recoverable coal reserves at about 252 billion short tons, of which about 58%
is underground mineable coal.
• Recoverable reserves at producing mines are the amount of recoverable reserves that coal
mining companies report to the EIA for their U.S. coal mines that produce more than 25,000
short tons of coal in a year. The EIA estimates these reserves at about 14 billion short tons of
recoverable reserves, of which 60% is surface mineable coal.
Fig. 1.3 shows US coal reserves in 2019. Based on U.S. coal production in 2019, of about
0.706 billion short tons, the recoverable coal reserves would last about 357 years, and recov-
erable reserves at producing mines would last about 20 years. The actual number of years
that those reserves will last depends on changes in production and reserve estimates.
Six states had 77% of the demonstrated reserve base (DRB) of coal as of January 1, 2020:
• Montana—25%
• Illinois—22%
• Wyoming—12%
• West Virginia—6%
• Kentucky—6%
• Pennsylvania—5%
In terms of world reserves, as of December 31, 2016, EIA estimates of total world proved
recoverable reserves of coal were about 1144 billion short ton s (or about 1.14 trillion short
tons), and five countries had about 75% of the world’s proved coal reserves. The top five
countries and their share of world proved coal reserves as of 12/31/2016
• United States—22%
• Russia—15%
• Australia—14%
• China—13%
• India—10%
Table 1.1 shows fuel consumption in the world for the year 2019. This trend shows the im-
pact of the Trump era in the USA.
Growth in energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth and a par-
tial unwinding of some of the one-off factors that boosted energy demand in 2018. This slow-
down was particularly evident in the US, Russia and India, each of which exhibited unusually
strong growth in 2018. China was the exception, with its energy consumption accelerating in
6 1. Introduction
TABLE 1.1 Fuel shares of primary energy and contributions to growth in 2019.
Energy Consumption Annual change Share of primary Percentage point change in
source (exajoules) (exajoules) energy (%) share from 2018
Oil 193.0 1.6 33.1 0.2
Gas 141.5 2.8 24.2 0.2
2019. As a result, China dominated the expansion of global energy markets—contributing the
largest increment to demand for each individual source of energy other than natural gas,
where it was only narrowly surpassed by the US. Despite the support from China, all fuels
(other than nuclear) grew at a slower rate than their 10-year averages, with coal consumption
declining for the fourth time in 6 years. Nevertheless, renewables still grew by a record in-
crement and provided the largest contribution (41%) to growth in primary energy, with
the level of renewable power generation exceeding nuclear power for the first time. The slow-
down in energy demand growth, combined with a shift in the fuel mix away from coal and
toward natural gas and renewables, led to a significant slowing in the growth of carbon emis-
sions, although only partially unwinding the unusually strong increase seen in 2018. Energy
prices fell on the whole, particularly for coal and gas where growth in production outpaced
consumption leading to a build up of inventories. Oil prices were a little lower.
Ever since the oil embargo of 1972, the world has been gripped by the fear of an ‘energy
crisis’. U.S. President Jimmy Carter, in 1978, told the world in a televised speech that the
world was in fact running out of oil at a rapid pace—a popular Peak Oil theory of the
time—and that the US had to wean itself off of the commodity. Since the day of that speech,
worldwide oil output has actually increased by more than 30%, and known available reserves
are higher than they were at that time. This hysteria has survived the era of Reaganomics,
President Clinton’s cold war dividend, President G.W. Bush’s post-9-11 era of ‘fearing every-
thing but petroleum’ and today even the most ardent supporters of the petroleum industry
have been convinced that there is an energy crisis looming and that it is only a matter of time
before we will be forced to switch to no-petroleum energy sources. During President Obama’s
time, there had been a marked shift toward so-called renewable energy and the background
of ‘only a carbon tax can fix the climate change debacle’ mantra was firmly established. Pres-
ident Trump has strived to undo much of those biases away from petroleum resources, but
the scientific community remains unconvinced. In this chapter, we deconstruct some of the
hysteria and unscientific bias that have gripped the scientific community as well as the left
leaning segment of the general public.
1.2 World energy 7
The general public is being prepared to face an energy crisis that is perceived to be forth-
coming. Since the demand for oil is unlikely to decline it inevitably means that the price will
increase, probably quite dramatically. This crisis attributed to peak oil theory is proposed to
be remedied with (1) austerity measures in order to decrease dependence on energy, possibly
decreasing per capita energy consumption, and (2) alternatives to fossil fuels. None of these
measures seem appealing because any austerity measure can induce an imbalance in the eco-
nomic system that is dependent on the spending habits of the population and any alternative
energy source may prove to be more expensive than fossil fuel. These concerns create panic,
which is beneficial to certain energy industries, including biofuel, nuclear, wind, and others.
Add to this problem is the recent hysteria created based on the premise that oil consumption
is the reason behind global warming. This in itself has created opportunities for many sectors
engaged in carbon sequestration.
In general, there has been a perception that solar, wind and other forms of ‘renewable’ en-
ergy are more sustainable or less harmful to the environment than their petroleum counter-
parts. It is stated that renewable energy is energy that is collected from renewable resources
that are naturally replenished on a human timescale, such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides,
waves, and geothermal heat. Chhetri and Islam (2008) have demonstrated that the claim of
harmlessness and absolute sustainability is not only exaggerated, it is not supported by sci-
ence. However, irrespective of scientific research, this positive perception translated into
global public support. One such survey was conducted by Ipsos Global in 2011 that found
a very favorable rating for non-fossil fuel energy sources (Fig. 1.4). Perception does have eco-
nomic implications attached to it. The Ipsos study found 75% agreed with the slogan
“scientific research makes a direct contribution to economic growth in the UK”. However,
in the workshops, although participants agreed with this, they did not always understand
the mechanisms through which science affects economic growth. There is strong support
for the public funding of scientific research, with three-quarters (76%) agreeing that “even
if it brings no immediate benefits, research which advances knowledge should be funded
by the Government.” Very few (15%) think that “Government funding for science should
be cut because the money can be better spent elsewhere”. This is inspite of public support
for cutting Government spending overall. It is not any different in the USA, where perception
translates directly into pressure on the legislative body, resulting in improved subsidies for
certain activities.
The Energy Outlook considers a range of alternative scenarios to explore different aspects
of the energy transition (Fig. 1.4). The scenarios have some common features, such as a sig-
nificant increase in energy demand and a shift toward a lower carbon fuel mix, but differ in
terms of particular policy or technology assumptions. In Fig. 4.2, the Evolving Transition (ET)
scenario is a direct function of public perception that dictates government policies, technol-
ogy and social preferences. Some scenarios focus on particular policies that affect specific
fuels or technologies, e.g., a ban on sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, a greater
policy push toward renewable energy, or weaker policy support for a switch from coal to gas
considered, e.g., faster and even faster transitions (Fig. 1.5).
In the mean time, it is predicted that the so-called decarbonization scheme is in full swing
in favor of energy sources other than fossil fuels.a The aim is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions dramatically, ignoring the fact that non-petroleum energy sources are no less toxic
than petroleum emissions (Islam and Khan, 2019). BP (2018) predicts that electric vehicles will
play a major role in lowering emissions from transport and boasts about providing a network
of 6500 charging points across the UK, and plans to roll out ultra-fast charging on our fore-
court network. The assumption in all these is that somehow electric cars are environmentally
friendly. This is contrary to the scientific analysis conducted over a decade ago by Chhetri and
Islam (2008), who showed that electric vehicles are far more toxic to the environment and far
less efficient than regular vehicles, run on internal combustion engines. BP further predicts
that by 2040, half of Europe’s cars and one third of the world’s vehicles will avoid having
FIG. 1.5 Energy outlook for 2040 as compared to 2016 under various scenarios (*Renewables include wind, solar,
geothermal, biomass, and biofuels, from BP Report, 2018).
a
Even electric cars are considered to be a product of decarbonization irrespective of the source of electrical energy.
1.2 World energy 9
internal combustion engines (ICE). This process of ‘decarbonization’ is further accelerated by
introducing electrification using ‘renewables’, hydrogen, e-fuelb and even nuclear energy.
Clearly, the world stage is ready to accept even nuclear in favor of ‘decarbonization’. For
instance, Kann et al. (2019) indicated the nuclear option as the number one priority to cut
down on GHG emissions.
Fig. 1.6 shows the growth of various energy sources. Only renewable energy made gains.
Meanwhile CO2 emissions declined. It is tempting to conclude that the decline is due to
reduction in fossil fuel consumption. This is not scientific as each renewable technology ends
up causing greater CO2 emissions when the entire life cycle is considered.
In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic played a significant role in shaping the global energy out-
look. Because of some degree of lockdown in every country, the Covid-19 pandemic has
caused more disruption to the energy sector than any other event in recent history. The
2020 IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) report (IEA, 2020a,b,c) examined in detail the effects
of the pandemic, and in particular how it affects the prospects for rapid clean energy transi-
tions. As shown in Fig. 1.7, the IEA assessment is that global energy demand is set to drop by
5% in 2020, energy-related CO2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. The impacts
vary by fuel. The estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use stand in sharp con-
trast to a slight rise in the contribution of renewables. The reduction in natural gas demand is
around 3%, while global electricity demand looks set to be down by a relatively modest 2% for
the year. The global COVID-19 lockdowns caused fossil carbon dioxide emissions to decline
by an estimated 2.4 billion tonnes in 2020 - a record drop according to researchers at Future
Earth’s Global Carbon Project (EurekAlert, 2020). The fall is considerably larger than previous
significant decreases - 0.5 (in 1981 and 2009), 0.7 (1992), and 0.9 (1945) billion tonnes of CO2
(GtCO2). It means that in 2020 fossil CO2 emissions are predicted to be approximately
34 GtCO2, 7% lower than in 2019. Ironically, the release of 2020s Global Carbon Budget came
just ahead of the fifth anniversary of the adoption of the UN Paris Climate Agreement, which
aims to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases to limit global warming. Cuts of around 1 to
2 GtCO2 are needed each year on average between 2020 and 2030 to limit climate change in
line with its goals. However, the Trump administration was not on board with the agreement
and relaxed many of the greenhouse gas emission regulations while achieving very desirable
results.
Not surprisingly, emissions from transport account for the largest share of the global de-
crease. Those from surface transport, such as car journeys, fell by approximately half at the
peak of the COVID-19 lockdowns. By December 2020, emissions from road transport and avi-
ation were still below their 2019 levels, by approximately 10% and 40%, respectively, due to
continuing restrictions. Total CO2 emissions from human activities—from fossil CO2 and
land-use change—are set to be around 39 GtCO2 in 2020.
The emissions decrease is notably more pronounced in the US (12%) and EU27 countries
(11%), where COVID-19 restrictions accelerated previous reductions in emissions from coal
use. It appears least pronounced in China (1.7%), where the effect of COVID-19 restrictions
on emissions occurred on top of rising emissions. In addition, restrictions in China occurred
early in the year and were more limited in their duration, giving the economy more time to
b
E-fuel involves synthetic fuel, made out of non-petroleum carbon and is branded as ‘carbon-free’ (Palmer, 2015).
%
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Renewables
CO2 emissions
Energy investment
“The great lesson is taught by this election that both the parties
which rested their hopes on sectional hostility, stand at this day
condemned by the great majority of the country, as common
disturbers of the public peace of the country.
“The Republican party was a hasty levy, en masse, of the Northern
people to repel or revenge an intrusion by Northern votes alone.
With its occasion it must pass away. The gentlemen of the
Republican side of the House can now do nothing. They can pass no
law excluding slavery from Kansas in the next Congress—for they are
in a minority. Within two years Kansas must be a state of the Union.
She will be admitted with or without slavery, as her people prefer.
Beyond Kansas there is no question that is practically open. I speak
to practical men. Slavery does not exist in any other territory,—it is
excluded by law from several, and not likely to exist anywhere; and
the Republican party has nothing to do and can do nothing. It has no
future. Why cumbers it the ground?
“Between these two stand the firm ranks of the American party,
thinned by desertions, but still unshaken. To them the eye of the
country turns in hope. The gentleman from Georgia saluted the
Northern Democrats with the title of heroes—who swam vigorously
down the current. The men of the American party faced, in each
section, the sectional madness. They would cry neither free nor slave
Kansas; but proposed a safe administration of the laws, before which
every right would find protection. Their voice was drowned amid the
din of factions. The men of the North would have no moderation, and
they have paid the penalty. The American party elected a majority of
this House: had they of the North held fast to the great American
principle of silence on the negro question, and, firmly refusing to join
either agitation, stood by the American candidate, they would not
now be writhing, crushed beneath an utter overthrow. If they would
now destroy the Democrats, they can do it only by returning to the
American party. By it alone can a party be created strong at the
South as well as at the North. To it alone belongs a principle accepted
wherever the American name is heard—the same at the North as at
the South, on the Atlantic or the Pacific shore. It alone is free from
sectional affiliations at either end of the Union which would cripple it
at the other. Its principle is silence, peace, and compromise. It abides
by the existing law. It allows no agitation. It maintains the present
condition of affairs. It asks no change in any territory, and it will
countenance no agitation for the aggrandizement of either section.
Though thousands fell off in the day of trial—allured by ambition, or
terrified by fear—at the North and at the South, carried away by the
torrent of fanaticism in one part of the Union, or driven by the fierce
onset of the Democrats in another, who shook Southern institutions
by the violence of their attack, and half waked the sleeping negro by
painting the Republican as his liberator, still a million of men, on the
great day, in the face of both factions, heroically refused to bow the
knee to either Baal. They knew the necessities of the times, and they
set the example of sacrifice, that others might profit by it. They now
stand the hope of the nation, around whose firm ranks the shattered
elements of the great majority may rally and vindicate the right of
the majority to rule, and of the native of the land to make the law of
the land.
The recent election has developed, in an aggravated form, every
evil against which the American party protested. Again in the war of
domestic parties, Republican and Democrat have rivalled each other
in bidding for the foreign vote to turn the balance of a domestic
election. Foreign allies have decided the government of the country—
men naturalized in thousands on the eve of the election—eagerly
struggled for by competing parties, mad with sectional fury, and
grasping any instrument which would prostrate their opponents.
Again, in the fierce struggle for supremacy, men have forgotten the
ban which the Republic puts on the intrusion of religious influence
on the political arena. These influences have brought vast multitudes
of foreign born citizens to the polls, ignorant of American interests,
without American feelings, influenced by foreign sympathies, to vote
on American affairs; and those votes have, in point of fact,
accomplished the present result.
The high mission of the American is to restore the influence of the
interests of the people in the conduct of affairs; to exclude appeals to
foreign birth or religious feeling as elements of power in politics; to
silence the voice of sectional strife—not by joining either section, but
by recalling the people from a profitless and maddening controversy
which aids no interest, and shakes the foundation not only of the
common industry of the people, but of the Republic itself; to lay a
storm amid whose fury no voice can be heard in behalf of the
industrial interests of the country, no eye can watch and guard the
foreign policy of the government, till our ears may be opened by the
crash of foreign war waged for purposes of political and party
ambition, in the name, but not by the authority nor for the interests,
of the American people.
Return, then, Americans of the North, from the paths of error to
which in an evil hour fierce passions and indignation have seduced
you, to the sound position of the American party—silence on the
slavery agitation. Leave the territories as they are—to the operation
of natural causes. Prevent aggression by excluding from power the
aggressors, and there will be no more wrong to redress. Awake the
national spirit to the danger and degradation of having the balance of
power held by foreigners. Recall the warnings of Washington against
foreign influence—here in our midst—wielding part of our
sovereignty; and with these sound words of wisdom let us recall the
people from paths of strife and error to guard their peace and power;
and when once the mind of the people is turned from the slavery
agitation, that party which waked the agitation will cease to have
power to disturb the peace of the land.
This is the great mission of the American party. The first condition
of success is to prevent the administration from having a majority in
the next Congress; for, with that, the agitation will be resumed for
very different objects. The Ostend manifesto is full of warning; and
they who struggle over Kansas may awake and find themselves in the
midst of an agitation compared to which that of Kansas was a
summer’s sea; whose instruments will be, not words, but the sword.
Joshua R. Giddings Against the Fugitive Slave
Law.