Management Science

Problem Solving (Probability)

1) Which meal are people most likely to order at a drive-through? A survey was conducted in 2009,
but the sample sizes were not reported. Suppose the results, based on a sample of 100 males and
100 females, were as follows:

GENDER MEAL
MALE FEMALE TOTAL

Breakfast 18 10 28
Lunch 47 52 99
Dinner 29 29 58
Snacks/Beverage 6 9 15
Total 100 100 200

Breakfast 28/200 = 14%

Lunch 99/200 = 49.5%

Dinner 58/200 = 29%

Snacks/Beverage 15/200 = 7.5%

-Therefore, LUNCH is the meal that people most likely to order at the drive-through with a
probability of 49.5%.

If a respondent is selected at random, what is the probability that he or she:

a. Prefers ordering at the drive-through? (3 points) 200/200 or 100% -Therefore, 100%
prefer ordering at the drive-through.
b. Prefers ordering breakfast or lunch at the drive-through? (3 points) 127/200 or 63.5% -
Therefore, 63.5% prefer ordering breakfast or lunch at the drive-through.
c. Is a male or female ordering dinner at the drive-through? (3 points) 58/200 or 29% -
Therefore, 29% is a male or female ordering dinner at the drive-through.
d. Is a male and prefers ordering dinner at the drive-through? (3 points) 29/200 or 14.5% -
Therefore, 14.5% is a male and prefers ordering dinner at the drive-through.
e. Given that the person selected is a female, what is the probability that she prefers ordering
breakfast at the drive-through? (3 points) 10/100 or 10%
-Therefore, 10% prefers ordering breakfast at the drive-through given that the
person selected is a female.
2) Do people of different age groups differ in their response to email messages? A survey by the
Center for the Digital Future of the University of Southern California reported that 70.7% of
users over 70 years of age believe that email messages should be answered quickly, as compared
 to 53.6% of users 12 to 50 years old. Suppose that the survey was based on 1,000 users over 70
years of age and 1,000 users 12 to 50 years old. The following table summarizes the results:

AGE OF RESPONDENTS ANSWERS

QUICKLY
12–50 Over 70 Total

Yes 536 707 1,243

No 464 293 757
Total 1,000 1,000 2,000
12-50 OVER 70
YES 536/1000 or 53.6% 707/1000 or 70.7% NO
464/1000 or 46.4% 293/1000 or 29.3%
-Therefore, people of different age groups differ in their response to email messages.

a. Suppose you know that the respondent is between 12 and 50 years old. What is the
probability that he or she answers quickly? (3 points) 536/2000 or 26.8%
-Therefore, when the respondent is between 12 and 50 years old, there is 26.8%
probability that he or she answers quickly.
b. Suppose you know that the respondent is over 70 years old. What is the probability that
he or she answers quickly? (3 points) 707/2000 or 35.35%
-Therefore, when the respondent is over 70 years old, there is 35.35% probability
that he or she answers quickly.
c. Are the two events, answers quickly and age of respondents, independent? Explain. (4
points) The two events, answers quickly and age of respondents, are not independent
because the probabilities of these two are not the same to each other.

3) According to a Gallup Poll, the extent to which employees are engaged with their workplace
varies from country to country. Gallup reports that the percentage of U.S. workers engaged with
their workplace is more than twice as high as the percentage of German workers. The study also
shows that having more engaged workers leads to increased innovation, productivity, and
profitability, as well as reduced employee turnover. The results of the poll are summarized in the
following table:

COUNTRY
ENGAGEMENT Total

United States Germany

Engaged 550 246 796
Not Engaged 1,345 1,649 2,994

Total 1,895 1,895 3,790

 If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that he or she:
a. is engaged with his or her workplace? (3 points) 796/3,790 or 21%
-Therefore, 21% is the probability that he/she is engaged with his/her workplace.
b. is a U.S. worker? (3 points) 1895/3790 or 50%
-Therefore, 50% is the probability that he/she is a U.S. worker.
c. is engaged with his or her workplace or is a U.S. worker? (3 points)
1895/3790 + 796/3790 – 550/3790 = 2141/3790 or 56.49%
-Therefore, 56.49% is the probability that he/she is engaged with his/her workplace
and is a U.S. worker.
d. Explain the difference in the results in (b) and (c). (4 points)
-The difference in the results in (b) and (c) is that in (b), there is a probability of
50% that he/she is a U.S. worker only while in (c), there is a probability of 56.49%
that he/she is engaged with his/her workplace or is a U.S. worker.

4) A sample of 500 respondents in a large metropolitan area was selected to study consumer behavior.
Among the questions asked was “Do you enjoy shopping for clothing?” Of 240 males, 136
answered yes. Of 260 females, 224 answered yes. Construct a contingency table to evaluate the
probabilities. What is the probability that a respondent chosen at random:

MALE FEMALE TOTAL

YES 136 224 360
NO 104 36 140
TOTAL 240 260 500

a. enjoys shopping for clothing? (3 points) 360/500 or 72%

-Therefore, there is a probability of 72% that he/she enjoys shopping for clothing.
b. is a female and enjoys shopping for clothing? (3 points) 224/500 or 44.8% -Therefore,
there is a probability of 44.8% that the respondent is a female and enjoys shopping
for clothing.
c. is a female or enjoys shopping for clothing? (3 points)
260/500 + 360/500 - 224/500 = 396/500 or 79.2%
-Therefore, there is a probability 79.2% that the respondent is a female or enjoys
shopping for clothing.
d. is a male or a female? (3 points)
Male 240/500 or 48%
Female 260/500 or 52%
-Therefore, the probability of the chosen respondent at random to be male is 48%
while 52% probability to be female.