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Full Download Book Demand For Emerging Transportation Systems Modeling Adoption Satisfaction and Mobility Patterns PDF
Full Download Book Demand For Emerging Transportation Systems Modeling Adoption Satisfaction and Mobility Patterns PDF
Constantinos Antoniou
Chair of Transportation Systems Engineering,
Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Dimitrios Efthymiou
Chair of Transportation Systems Engineering,
Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Emmanouil Chaniotakis
Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources,
University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom
Elsevier
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ISBN: 978-0-12-815018-4
Constantinos Antoniou:
To Mari-Elen, Maira, Harry and Cecilia
Dimitrios Efthymiou:
To Alexia and Vasilis
Emmanouil Chaniotakis:
To Irini and Zoi
Contributors
xiii
xiv Contributors
xv
xvi About the editors
Introduction
Constantinos Antoniou1, Emmanouil Chaniotakis2,
Dimitrios Efthymiou1
1
Chair of Transportation Systems Engineering, Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental
Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany; 2Bartlett School of Environment,
Energy and Resources, University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom
Chapter outline
1. Challenges of a fast-changing 3. Structure of this book 7
landscape 3 References 7
2. How can we respond to the
challenges arising? 6
uncertainties are not only related to the technological characteristics and the
capacity of the vehicles but also to the business models that will become
widespread (e.g., individually owned vs. shared). Even for specific modeling
extensions (e.g., modeling autonomous vehicles’ impacts), during this long
transition period, the underlying conditions will be changing constantly, thus
not leaving time for conventional models to “catch-up.”
The situation is exacerbated when dealing with more volatile new modes.
For example, Uber (a rather new phenomenon, founded 10 years ago) is
currently generating 14 million trips daily,1 while its Chinese counterpart DiDi
is generating 30 million trips daily. Uber has extended its business model from
single passenger trips to shared trips, while recently decided to also offer
shared bicycles, scooters, and even helicopter rides (operation started in New
York City in May 2019). Respectively, the oBike shared bike system flooded
European cities (such as Munich and Zurich) in 2017, only to disappear in
2018, amid privacy and sidewalk-squatting complaints. Similarly, recently
inaugurated shared electric bicycle systems in the northeastern US were
shuttered, a few months after the start of operation, due to safety concerns.
What complicates the situation even further is that, besides the nature of the
modes, their funding, business model, and ownership status varies, as well, as
these initiatives are typically not controlled by the authorities, but originate
from private companies (ranging from start-ups to established entities like car
and aircraft manufacturers). The uncertainty is also great, as many business
models are tried at the same time; e.g., Airbus is developing a large number of
different urban air mobility vehicles in parallel, in order to cover all possible
outcomes, while Uber (and similar companies like Lyft and Grab) also explore
different types of services.
Mobility of goods and people is becoming increasingly more intertwined
and harder to distinguish. People and packets are increasingly considered as
mixed demand patterns. Passenger and freight transport chains are getting
increasingly more entangled, with the potential for synchronization and couse
of infrastructure, anddthusdstrong synergies and benefits. The idea is that as
the same vehicles and services can serve them, an integrated transport system
can emerge on both a demand and a supply side. Thus, instead of developing
two parallel systems, each being underutilized for a majority of the day and/or
space, we can develop systems that are complementing each other, bringing
along benefits and efficiency.
Another big change that is emerging is the move from a primarily plane-
based transportation system (surface, plus some underground and some
elevated modes) into a really three-dimensional (3D) situation. Commercial air
drones and urban air mobility (Fu et al., 2019), as well as urban aerial ca-
bleways, that see a revival of interest, e.g., in Munich, but also underground
1. https://www.uber.com/newsroom/company-info/.
Introduction Chapter | 1 5
tunnels (e.g., from Elon Musk’s Boring Company) and hyperloop concepts
above and below ground, respectively. This trend has the potential to increase
the available capacity and foster the development of additional novel solutions,
but of course makes the application of existing models very challenging.
As it is made understood, these new mobility modes are emerging (and
sometimes disappearing) in a high pace. Transportation services provision is
now considered a profitable business often attracting start-ups and other pri-
vate companies who operate at rapid paces, with minimal warning. The
aforementioned existing modeling paradigms are not sufficiently agile to
respond to these rapidly changing conditions, which often propose and
leverage fundamentally new concepts, such as autonomy, connectivity,
sharing, and the gig-economy. These all constitute changes that require us to
come up with methods that can function within an environment of radical
transformation that completely changes the mobility landscape. This has
immensely increased the complexity of transportation systems in terms of
1. Design: From a need-based design, we observe a change toward a creating
needs process, where emerging modes competition and availability drives
the creation of additional demand, which was not present the last few
years. This has been facilitated by a number of technological drivers such
as the widespread use of Information and Communication Technology
(ICT). These drivers are essentially changing the potential of developing
transport-related services and goods while in the same time creating new
data sources to be explored.
2. Coordination: New actors change the traditionally followed processes of
transportation system management and introduce new and possibly con-
tradictory objectives (welfare vs. profit).
3. Representation: The activities of planners have been supported by a
number of models, of varying characteristics, including resolution
(microscopic and macroscopic, but also mesoscopic, i.e., models
comprising micro- and macroscopic components), but also commercial
versus open-source or general purpose versus custom. All these models
shared one common attribute: rigid functional forms, making it extremely
difficult to extend and adapt them to effectively incorporating the emerging
modes and data. Lately, modeling of transportation systems must distin-
guish between different forms of private car use (e.g., carsharing, ride-
sharing, and ridehailing) and other emerging modes of transport (e.g., kick
scooter and shared bicycles; autonomous vehicles). Additionally, the
modeling paradigm changes, with dynamically defined supply, which is
shaped upon the demand itself (e.g., availability of a shared vehicle in an
area is defined by the demand of trips to that area).
4. Data Availability: “If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it,” as
per the aphorism attributed to Lord Kelvin, and during this period we have
been using a limited amount of data (mostly point data from loop detectors,
6 PART | A Introduction
and more recently some limited travel time information). During the last
decade, an avalanche of rich, ubiquitous data are becoming increasingly
available, ranging from social media data to telecommunication data and
from floating car to vehicle status data.
References
Buckley, S., Lightman, D., 2015. Ready or not, big data is coming to a city (transportation agency)
near you. In: Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting, number 15-5156 in
TRB2015.
Chaniotakis, E., Antoniou, C., Pereira, F., 2016. Mapping social media for transportation studies.
IEEE Intelligent Systems 31 (6), 64e70.
Danaf, M., Atasoy, B., de Azevedo, C.L., Ding-Mastera, J., Abou-Zeid, M., Cox, N., Zhao, F., Ben-
Akiva, M., 2019. Context-aware stated preferences with smartphone-based travel surveys.
Journal of Choice Modelling 31, 35e50.
Duran-Rodas, D., Chaniotakis, E., Antoniou, C., June 2019. Built Environment Factors Affecting
Bike Sharing Ridership: Data-Driven Approach for Multiple Cities. https://doi.org/10.1177/
0361198119849908. Transportation Research Record.
8 PART | A Introduction
Efthymiou, D., Antoniou, C., Siora, E., Argialas, D., 2018. Modeling the impact of large-scale
transportation infrastructure development on land cover. Transportation Letters 10 (1), 26e42.
Fu, M., Rothfeld, R., Antoniou, C., 2019. Exploring preferences for transportation modes in an
urban air mobility environment: munich case study. Transportation Research Record.
Hensher, D.A., Ton, T.T., 2000. A comparison of the predictive potential of artificial neural net-
works and nested logit models for commuter mode choice. Transportation Research Part E:
Logistics and Transportation Review 36 (3), 155e172.
Matyas, M., Kamargianni, M., 2018. The Potential of Mobility as a Service Bundles as a Mobility
Management Tool. Transportation.
Papathanasopoulou, V., Antoniou, C., 2015. Towards data-driven car-following models. Trans-
portation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 55, 496e509. Engineering and Applied
Sciences Optimization (OPT-i) - Professor Matthew G. Karlaftis Memorial Issue.
Pournaras, E., Moise, I., Helbing, D., 2015. Privacy-preserving ubiquitous social mining via
modular and compositional virtual sensors. In: 2015 IEEE 29th International Conference on
Advanced Information Networking and Applications, pp. 332e338.
Prelipcean, A.C., Gidofalvi, G., Susilo, Y.O., 2018. MEILI: a travel diary collection, annotation
and automation system. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 70, 24e34.
Reades, J., Calabrese, F., Sevtsuk, A., Ratti, C., 2007. Cellular census: explorations in urban data
collection. Pervasive Computing, IEEE 6 (3), 30e38.
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Part C: Emerging Technologies 13 (3), 211e234.
Chapter 2
Chapter outline
1. Introduction 11 3.1.2 Demand responsive
2. Transportation systems 12 transit 20
2.1 Established transportation 3.1.3 Taxi 21
systems 12 3.2 Emerging transportation
2.2 Emerging transportation systems 21
systems 13 3.2.1 Carsharing, ridesharing,
2.3 Future transportation systems 15 ridehailing, carpooling,
2.3.1 Autonomous vehicles 15 and vanpooling 21
2.3.2 Urban air mobility 3.2.2 Bikesharing 23
(“flying taxis”) 18 3.2.3 Shared e-scooters 23
2.4 Strengths and weaknesses of 3.3 Future transportation systems 24
the systems and modes 3.3.1 Shared autonomous ve-
examined 19 hicles 24
3. Factors affecting transportation 3.3.2 Urban air mobility 25
systems adoption and satisfaction 19 4. Synthesis of factors 29
3.1 Established transportation 5. Conclusions 29
systems 19 References 30
3.1.1 Public transport 19 Further Reading 35
1. Introduction
The factors that influence the use and adoption of transportation systems can
be examined from different standpoints, such as organizational, financial,
legislative, technological, and user acceptance. All these different factors play
a minor or major role in the use of the large variety of transportation systems
and modes. Their understanding is of vital importance for creating a sus-
tainable transportation system. However, the variety of transportation modes
and systems that currently exist and those that will emerge in the near future
makes the review of these factors quite complicated. In addition, when
analyzing two or more transportation systems that are closely related, as in the
case of shared mobility, overlaps and conflicts between these factors often
occur. Thus, the examination of each transportation system and mode sepa-
rately helps to overcome those shortcomings.
The purpose of this chapter is to present and analyze the key determinants,
factors, and eventually motivators that affect the use, adoption, and satisfaction
of transportation systems from the point of view of the end users, i.e., com-
muters and travelers. The focus is placed on passenger transport for urban,
suburban, and periurban contexts. The findings of this review, and more
particularly the sound understanding of the determinants influencing their use,
may be quite useful for transport operators and policy makers to better tackle
commuters’ and travelers’ perception and to plan the appropriate mobility
management actions and policies.
To assist the factors’ review and discussion, the transportation systems and
modes have been classified into three broad categories: established, emerging,
and future. Established refers to the systems that already exist, such as public
transport and taxi. Emerging refers to concepts that have been already
implemented in some areas and continue to emerge, while future refers to
concepts which have received attention from the transport community and
industry, but they have not been implemented (yet). The systems and modes
that fall into these three categories are briefly described below.
2. Transportation systems
2.1 Established transportation systems
Established transportation systems have been long examined upon the
distinction of private and public transportation. Private transportation usually
refers to modes owned by the user, such as car, bike, and walk. Public transport
usually refers to the modes, which are operated by an authority or organiza-
tion. The characteristics of public transport vary a lot depending on the mode
(metro, bus, etc.), and it has been claimed to be the most viable solution to the
negative effects of urban congestion. In most cases, public transport operates
on predefined schedules and routes. However, flexible forms of public trans-
port providing services more associated to demand are demand-responsive
transit, also known as paratransit. It includes services where a transit vehicle
does not operate on a fixed-route, but picks up and drops off passengers at
locations in response to specific service requests.
Review of factors affecting transportation systems Chapter | 2 13