Voting Regression Model for Covid-19 Time Series Data
Analysis
Saumya Gupta, Research Scholar, CSE,
Chandigarh University, Mohali
(gupta98sept@gmail.com)
Abstract
The cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 are increased at a
quick rate in mid-January and the virus is transmitted beyond
the borders of China. This disease is spread over 188
countries all around the world. The ARIMA model is an
extensively utilized time series model that is constructed for
economics applications. This model is adopted and becomes
famous due to its statistical properties. The covid-19 time
series data analysis is a combination of three tasks such as
data acquisition, feature extraction, and classification. In this
research work, voting regression is applied for the time-series
data analysis. The voting regression is the combination of the
elastic net, linear regression, and lasso. The planned paradigm
is implemented in python and output is analyzed in terms of
MSE and RMSE. The proposed model shows that MSE and
RMSE values are low as compared to other models.
Keywords
Gradient Boosting, Linear regression, Xgboot regression,
Voting regression, Covid-19
1. Introduction
Cases of severe respiratory illness have been noticed all over
the city of Wuhan in China in December 2019. This disease
is occurred due to a novel kind of coronavirus, SARS-Co V2
that is known as COVID-19. The cases of Coronavirus
Disease 2019 are increased at a quick rate in mid-January and
the virus is transmitted beyond the borders of China. This
disease is spread over 188 countries all around the world.
Instead of describing the effects of corona disease, various are
arise due to it such as the number of patients who are suffered
from novel coronavirus, the way to change the situation
change day by day and to predict the subsequent numbers of
affected people with COVID-19 with the help of daily
updated data on the trajectory of this disease. All of these
issues can be tackled with the prediction of possible futures
of this pandemic [1]. For this, the statistical or time series
models can be implemented. But, these extensive systems and
tools may not provide higher accuracy while predicting the
disease, especially for medical studies. The evolvement of
Coronavirus Disease 2019 and the gathering of additional
data lead to construct and test the novel insights on the
novelty of the predictive models. But, there is a necessity for
Dr. Chander Prabha, Associate Professor,
CSE, Chandigarh University, Mohali
(chander.e9251@cumail.in)
transparent reporting and multiple model assessments for the
prediction of future trends of this disease. With the ongoing
issues, it becomes challenging to predict the disease for
analyzing the current situation and growth of COVID- 19
more efficiently so that the future of this ongoing pandemic
can be prepared. The suitable models are employed and
accurate projections are generated for improving the public
health decision-making; to illustrate, intervention-induced
changes in the transmission of disease.
Various time series prediction models are present for
analyzing the situation and trend of Coronavirus Disease
2019. The time series prediction is a forecasting field whose
major intend is to analyze the earlier perceptions of an
irregular variable for generating a paradigm that can capture
the underlying association and its prototypes. Thereafter, the
subsequent values of that irregular variable are predicted
using this model. This concept is mainly utilized in a couple
of scenarios [2]. The first case has almost no information on
the fundamental information creating appropriation/ measure
or the second case has not any explanatory model for
associating the predictive variable to other explanatory
variables in an adequate manner. Numerous efforts and
research are conducted on constructing and improving the
time series models over the previous years. The time series
techniques having the influence of statistical and ML
(machine learning) are deployed by several researchers for
estimating the percentage of active cases on the basis of the
complete populace for the ten nations with the most covid
positive patients. The ML and statistical techniques are
assisted in the past in the disease diagnosis. The modeling of
leptospirosis and its association with rainfall and temperature
can be taken as an example. Different time series-based
techniques are presented and analyzed such as Prophet,
ARIMA, TBAT, HWAAS [3], N-Beats, and DeepAR. The
ARIMA model is an extensively utilized time series model
that is constructed for economics applications. This model is
adopted and becomes famous due to its statistical properties.
It employs Box–Jenkins’s methodology in the training phase
and this model is capable of deploying several exponential
smoothing models. This model is based on the hypothesis that
the time-series values are linearly correlated with the
utilization of linear dependencies in observations for
extracting the local patterns when the high-frequency noise is
eliminated from the data. Three diverse input parameters are
exploited to describe this model in which 𝑎 denotes the lag
order or the number of lag observations included in the
model; 𝑑 is the number of times whose differentiation is done
by the raw observations and𝑞 defines the size of the moving
average window which assists in calculating the mean. In
case,𝑎 = 0, 𝑑 = 2, 𝑞 = 2, the forecast value 𝑌̂𝑡 which is
predicted with ARIMA is equal to:
𝑌̂𝑡 = 2𝑌𝑡−1 − 𝑌𝑡−2 − 𝜃1 𝑒𝑡−1 − 𝜃2 𝑒𝑡 −2
In which,𝜃1 and 𝜃2 represent the moving average coefficients
and the forecasting error for the observation in time 𝑡 is
defined with 𝑒𝑡 . This predictive technique is tested for the
selected data as the strong auto-correlation among data is
considered in it [4]. In addition, ARIMA can be deployed at
various kinds of datasets and provides optimal outcomes. The
HWAAS is an extended version ofHES (Holt’s exponential
smoothing) that is a time series technique for univariate data.
This modification helps in adding the seasonal aspect to the
in-trend foresee to model knowledge with an orderly pattern
or occasional part. The Holt-Winters additive model is a
common technique that is able to tackle trends and weather
changes. This model can be implemented as an option in
contrast to the mainstream Box–Jenkins ARIMA group of
strategies. Nevertheless, experiential works have carried out
this technique isn't exact on normal as the more muddled
Box–Jenkins technique is. The Holt–Winters’s additive
model is efficient to be implemented on data having course
and seasonal which stays stable with time and provides
bowed estimate to display the weather-based data variations
[5]. The on-ground challenges faced during the deployment
of this technique are the decision of introductory qualities,
their affectability to uncommon occasions or anomalies, the
determination of smoothing metrics , and the standardization
of climatic index. The TBAT refers to an abbreviation for the
4 fundamental elements of the technique. The approach is
depending upon the trigonometric functions exploit for
modeling the non-integer cyclical frequencies and Box-Co x
translations that are applied for transforming the atypical
dependent variables in a common shape and permit some
forms of non-linearity. This technique is efficient for dealing
with various issues related to time series. It is mathematically
successful for greatest probability assessors and its projected
trigonometric formula is useful for decomposing the intricate
weather-based time series. This division is done to recognize
and extract the seasonal elements that are unseen in the time
series plot. Facebook has introduced the Prophet a time series
technique and designed for addressing the issues regarding
business time series [6]. The technique makes the
implementation of an easily decomposable time-series model
in which trend, seasonality, and holidays are comprised as
trend elements. This is a regression model having
interpretable attributes which provide good performance with
their default values and assists the user in selecting the
components to handle their prediction issue and effortlessly
employ the necessary adjustments. The future trend is
predicted using two systems namely a saturating growth
model and a piece-wise linear model. In order to accomplish
the growth forecasting, a paradigm akin to the population
development paradigms in common environments is
deployed that contains the nonlinear growth to reach a
saturation point at a carrying capacity. The issues, at which
the saturating point is not reached, are predicted using the
piece-wise model of steady development value which
generates a productive and regularly valuable arrangement.
The seasonality is captured using the prophet that is
depending upon the Fourier series for creating a flexib le
model of periodic effects [7]. On the other hand, there is a
need for an already created index of historic and future break
episodes for considering the holidays. Holiday effects are
considered independent. Thus, integrating them with the
model is a challenging task. DeepAR is a predictive technique
planned on the basis of ARNN (autoregressive recurrent
neural networks) for probabilistic forecasting. The suitable
probabilities are integrated with the nonlinear data
transformation methods that are learned through DNN (deep
neural network) to carry out the prediction. The RNN
structure based on LSTM is employed in this technique and
this technique is constructed based on DL (deep learning) for
time series data so that the issue of the probabilistic prediction
can be resolved. N-Beats is a times series technique in which
deep neural architecture is utilized and forward and backward
remaining connections are involved with an in-depth heap of
layers that are fully linked [8]. In general, the execution of
this model is done as the conventional methods such as the
seasonality-trend-level approach. There are two stacks of this
system namely the trend stack and the seasonality stack.
Various blocks connected through the residual connections
are comprised in these stacks. This dual residual stacking in
integration with the forecast principle provides the trend
component that is detached from the input window prior to its
transmission into the seasonality stack. Thus, the decoupling
of partial forecasts of trend is done from the seasonality and
it is presented as a distinct outcome using which an attractive
layer of significance is offered to the paradigm. Moreover,
this model can be trained quickly and provides interpretability
and accuracy on various datasets.
2. Literature Review
Tingzhen Liu, et.al (2020) developed a transformation-based
autocorrelation sequence prediction algorithmic approach
[9]. It constructed a time series of areas -based reference
functions that had experienced the entire cycle of the
pandemic condition. The ensembles of the Reference function
were converted with other fields of incomplete observational
data as observables. The transformed function could
successfully predict series values hidden in other fields.
Based on this, this work showed the way of using information
delivered by other autocorrelation prediction-based
exogenous variables to improve the output generated by the
model. This work tested the new model using the COVID - 19
pandemic data set collected from Baidu. In the results, this
model showed high-quality fitting parameters. This model
outperformed the basic LSTM pandemic predictive model.
SinaArdabili, et.al (2020) performed a review with the intent
to incorporate an ANN (artificial neural network)combined
with the GWO (Gray Wolf Optimizer) approach for
predicting COVID-19 pandemic using a universal dataset
[10]. This work used time-series data collected to perform
training and testing processes, and verification. To evaluate
the outcomes, this work employed MAPE and R values. The
presented approach yielded Mean Absolute Percentage Error
around 6.23 for training, 13.15 for testing, and 11.4% for the
validation stages. The results showed that the devised model
could efficiently deal with the prediction work.
Raghavendra Kumar, et.al (2021) put forward a proposal of
using time series models for analyzing the outbreak of Corona
Virus Disease 2019 based on data of JHCRC (John Hopkins
Coronavirus Resource Center) [11]. The Time Series model
predicted the active cases of corona disease in India with the
implementation of three time series models: ARIMA, MA,
and AR. Time series models could predict the current
situation of the novel coronavirus pandemic. The new model
could help all types of organizations as a corresponding
technique to build and act upon decision-making strategies.
The impact of the pandemic on the whole nation could be
minimized using this model. This model provided accurate
prediction results which could probably be extended and
validated utilizing other ML (machine learning) and DL (deep
learning) models.
Andi Sulasikin, et.al (2020) predicted the active cases of
Covid-19 in the capital of Indonesia using two-time series
models: ARIMA and Holt's exponential smoothing [12]. This
work explored data and performed a comparative study of
time series models to ascertain the most competent models
for predicting the active cases of novel coronavirus 2019.
According to the results, the ARIMA model provided the
maximu m R-squared (R2 ), and the minimal MSE and RMSE
for predicting the possible number of active cases of Corona
Virus Disease 2019 in Indonesia’s capital. The used system
performed remarkably well and generated appropriate
predictions that supported data-driven strategy in the context
of public health.
Zehua Yu, et.al (2021) proposed a new model, namely IT-
GCN to study the data of the Covid-19 outbreak [13]. In
particular, the new model integrated ARIMA into GCN for
data modeling which originated on nodes in a graph that
indicated the seriousness of the outbreak in many regions.
This work constructed the graph nodes with the vectors using
Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average
parameterization to discover the interaction topology in data.
The outcomes showed that the presented model provided
better performance for predicting daily cas es of corona
disease of short-term. The new model performed better than
the existing algorithm in the context of Mean Absolute Error,
Root mean square error, and Mean Absolute Percentage
Error.
Radu Beche, et.al (2020) presented an auto-encoder
prediction model to predict the active number of Corona
Virus Disease 2019 cases in many European nations [14]. The
output of this work could be used to assist officials to plan
preventive measures earlier and distribute resources
competently to minimize the effect of the new infection in
their region. It was possible to apply the presented technique
for foresting the outbreak of COVID-19 disease. It was
noteworthy that the proposed model used merely
mathematical data without considering the context of any
other forms of data, such as mitigation measures, travel
effects, etc.
Leonardo Sestrem de Oliveira, et.al (2021) implemented the
ANN model to predict the active number of Corona Virus
Disease 2019 cases and deaths in the next 7 days using the
time series of three countries [15]. The simulations could be
used to establish that the ANN model fruitfully predicted the
active number of cases along with the total no. of deaths due
to Covid-19. In general, an Artificial Neural Network with a
detailed test set had a 50% higher MSE as compared to an
Artificial Neural Network with a randomized testing set. The
LM training function obtained the least mean squared error
for overall cases.
Massimo A. Achterberg, et.al (2020) discussed that the
researchers belonged to diverse scientific fields focused on
predicting the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 [16]. An
approach was recommended in which epidemic prediction
techniques were comprised such as form-fitting techniques to
ML (machine-learning) models. A model known as NIPA
(Network Inference-based Prediction) was achieved by
integrating these techniques. This approach was utilized for
analyzing distinct sets of algorithms to predict the
coronavirus disease considering various modified versions of
the presented model. It was observed that the original NIPA
model provided superior performance to predict the spread of
COVID-19 in Hubei, China as compared to others. Moreover,
the prediction based on the network outperformed the other
algorithms.
Md Masud Rana, et.al (2020) suggested a novel stochastic
system of coronavirus disease so that the communication
systems were prevented during the transmission and storage
of data [8]. The suggested system was constructed and
authenticated on the basis of observable and non-observable
states of corona disease including infection, confirmed or
unconfirmed cases, recovery, and deaths. A new secure
communication system based on IoT (internet of things) was
introduced in order to send the local observation information
to the central control center. The coronavirus disease was
forecasted by building and deploying an optimal signal
processing algorithm. This approach emphasized mitigating
the predictive error so that an efficient predictive system was
constructed. The outcomes demonstrated that the suggested
system was capable of predicting the states of coronavirus
disease in a short period.
Chamara Sandeepa, et.al (2020) aimed to track the social
interaction of users and predict the infection possibility on the
basis of social interactions [9]. Initially, a social interaction
tracking system based on BLE (Bluetooth Low Energy) and
GPS was designed. Subsequently, an algorithm was
implemented with the objective of predicting the possibility
of infected patients due to coronavirus disease 2019 in
accordance with the collected data. Finally, a mobile app and
a web monitoring tool had employed to exploit a prototype of
the system. The simulations were conducted for the analysis
of the behavior of the presented algorithm. The outcomes
revealed that to slow down the impact of disease, self-
isolation was essential.
3. Research Methodology
This research work is based on the covid-19 for time series
analysis. The time-series data analysis has various steps
which are described below: -
1. Dataset Collection and Pre-Processing: - The dataset is
collected from the kaggle. The dataset is of time series fro m
the world cases. The target set of the dataset contains two
classes which are recovered cases, death cases.
2. Feature Extraction and Regression: - The feature
extraction is the second phase in which a relationship is
established between attribute and target set. The voting
regression model is applied for the time-series data analysis.
The voting regression is the combination of the elastic net,
lasso, and linear regression. LASSO has expanded by
presenting an elastic net regression model for which some of
its drawbacks are tackled in terms of selecting the variable. In
general, a grouping effect is influenced by this model for
which the predictors are co-related in this model. On the
contrary, the strongest variable is kept in the Least Absolute
Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) for dividing
these kinds of groups. In addition, the elastic net is proved
efficient at the time in case the number of predictors (p) is
greater within a dataset in comparison with the number of
observations. However, LASSO has not potential to select
more than n predictors. Thus, the elastic net model is proved
more efficient. Suppose the standardized regressors and
response, the below-given issue can be solved through the
elastic net as:
𝑁
2 in predicting an output based on the highest probability of the
𝛽̂ = arg 𝑚𝑖𝑛 {∑ (𝑦𝑖 − ∑ 𝛽𝑗 𝑥 𝑖𝑗 ) + 𝜆𝑃𝛼 (𝛽) }
2𝑁 𝑗
1
= arg min { ‖𝑦 − 𝑋𝛽‖ 22 + 𝜆𝑃𝛼 (𝛽) }
2𝑛
Pα (β) = α ‖β‖22 + (1 − α)‖β‖ 1
𝑝
= ∑ 𝛼𝛽𝑗2 + (1 − 𝛼) |𝛽𝑗 |
𝑗=1
In which, Pα(β) denotes the elastic net penalty. Pα (β) is
utilized to represent the integration of the ridge regression
penalty, for α = 1 with the LASSO penalty, for α = 0. Such a
form of penalty is often proved helpful when p > n or in
situations that includes a number of correlated predictor
variables. The LR as part of the family of regression
algorithms emphasizes discovering relationships and
dependence among between variables. A modeling
relationship is demonstrated amid a continuous scalar
dependent variable represented by y and one or more
explanatory variables in which other variables are contained
revealed with 𝑋 through a linear function. The major intend
of the regression analysis is that a continuous target variable
has to be forecasted while a label from a finite set is utilized
to predict the other region known as classification. The model
employed to perform the Multiple Regression in which input
variables are expressed as:
𝑦 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑥 1 + 𝛽2 𝑥 2 +. . . +𝑒
LR also comes under the category of supervised learning
algorithms. This implies that the training of the model is done
on a set of labeled data. This model is utilized for forecasting
the labels on unlabeled data. Hierarchical partitioning of the
data is generated in which the diverse partitions at the leaf
level are related to the different classes with the help of DT.
A split criterion is carried out for producing hierarchica l
partitioning at every level. A condition may utilize a single
feature or multiple features in it. The first is called a
univariate split on the other hand second is named a
multivariate split. The entire approach is utilized for
recursively splitting the training data so that the
discrimination is enlarged among the dissimilar classes over
diverse nodes. This bias is increased among the different
classes in case of maximization of the level of skew among
the different classes in a provided node. This skew is
computed using a measure named the Gini-index or entropy.
To illustrate, when 𝑃1 , … . . 𝑃𝑘 is the fraction of the records
comes under the 𝑘 diverse classes in a node denoted by 𝑁, the
Gini-index 𝐺 (𝑁 ) of the node 𝑁 is described as:
𝑘
𝐺 (𝑁 ) = 1 − ∑ 𝑃𝑖 2
𝑖=1
The value of 𝐺 (𝑁 ) lies between 0 and 1 − 1/𝑘. As the value
of 𝐺 (𝑁 ) becomes small, the skew becomes greater. If the
classes are balanced in even order, the value is 1 − 1/𝑘.A
Voting Regression is a technique whose training is executed
on an ensemble of a variety of models. This algorithm assists
selected class as the output. This regression technique is
capable of aggregating the discoveries of every regression
process that is gone through the voting model. The outcomes
attained from various classification methods are integrated
into this algorithm. The voting regression algorithm has three
categories. All the classification schemes are agreed with the
final decision in unanimous voting. The majority voting
makes the final decision on the basis of more than 50% votes.
The plurality voting technique is very simple that facilitated
every each voter for selecting only one alternative. The
candidate who attains the highest number of votes is
considered the winner. In the case of m voters who are
selected through simple majority voting and the probability ,
𝑝 is considered for every voter in order to make the accurate
decision, the probability of the whole jury to take the right
decision is defined as:
𝑚
𝑚!
𝑝𝑚 = ∑ ( ) ∙ 𝑝 𝑖 ∙ (1 − 𝑝) 𝑚−1
(𝑚 − 𝑖) ! ∙ 𝑖!
𝑖= ⌈𝑚 ⁄2 ⌉
Therefore, in case 𝑝 > 5.0, then 𝑝𝑚 > 𝑝.This implies that a
higher probability to make an accurate decision through an
ensemble voting regression in comparison with any
individual voter.
4. Result and Discussion
This research work is based on the covid-19 time series data
analysis. The dataset is collected from the kaggle for the time
series analysis. The dataset contains a total of 12 columns in
which the first 11 are the attributes and the last one is the
target set. The attributes are identification, country, Province,
Country region, population, weight, date, target. The target
value is the last attribute that defines the target set. The values
attribute like weight, data, identification is dropped because
these are used to keep records in the hospital and not used for
the prediction analysis.

The times series dataset is analyzed using various regression

models like gradient boosting, linear regression, XGboost,
and the proposed model. The gradient boosting, linear
regression, and XGboost are the existing models which are
used for the time series data analysis. The proposed model is
Figure 1: MSE analysis
the voting regression model which is the combination of
linear regression, lasso, and elastic net.
As shown in figure 1, the MSE values of the gradient
boosting, linear regression, xgboost, and proposed technique
The performance analysis parameters are explained below:-
is compared for the performance analysis. It is analyzed that
the MSE value of the proposed method is low in comparison
1. Root Mean Square Error:- It is the standard deviation of
with existing methods.
the prediction errors. These errors define the distance of data
points from the regression line. This value computes the
reason for the transmission of these residuals. Moreover,
RMSE described the way to find out the data around the line
of best fit.

2. Mean Squared Error:- This value defines the close

relation of the regression line to a set of points. For this, the
distance amid the points and the regression line is computed
and its square is found. Any negative sign can be eliminated
with the squaring. MSE provides more weight to larger
differences.

Table 1: Performance Analysis

Figure 2: RMSE value Analysis
Para Gradie Linear Xgboost Propos
meter nt Regressi Regressi ed
Boosti on on As shown in figure 2, the RMSE value of gradient boosting,
ng linear regression, xgbosst, and the proposed algorithm is
MSE 0.010 0.018 0.087 0.003 compared for the performance analysis. The proposed
algorithm has the least RMSE value for the covid-19
prediction.
RMS 1.32 0.18 0.29 0.13
E Conclusion

Covid disease is spread over 188 countries all around the

As shown in Table 1, the various models like gradient
boosting, linear regression, xgboost regression, and proposed
models are compared for the analysis of the timer series
dataset. The performance of the models is compared in terms
of MSE and RMSE. The proposed model gives maximu m
performance MSE and RMSE is 0.06 and 0.13 respectively
due to hybridization. The proposed model uses the voting
regression which is the combination of linear regression,
lasso, and elastic net for the analysis of the time-series dataset
of COVID-19.
world. Instead of describing the effects of corona disease,
various are arise due to it such as the number of patients who
are suffered from COVID-19, the way to change the situation
change day by day, and for predicting the future numbers of
affected people with corona disease with the help of daily
updated data on the trajectory of this disease. The Covid
disease prediction has diverse stages in which pre-processing
is done, attributes are extracted and classification is
performed. In this research, a voting regression model is
proposed which is the combination of linear regression,
elastic net, and decision tree. The proposed model is
implemented in python and results will be analyzed in terms
of MSE and RMSE. It is analyzed that the MSE and RMSE
value of the proposed model is low as compared to existing
models.
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