Currency Market Analysis 1/01/24 -

5/01/24
USD 🇺🇸
Strong NFP and Dollar repricing - Market adjusting expectations for Fed - Impact on interest
rate cuts

Impact on currency pairs - USDJPY & USDCAD rising

Federal Reserve’s policy and rate cuts - Focus on timing and magnitude of rate cuts -
Influence on employment, inflation and economic growth

Key indicators to watch - Unemployment rates - Participation rates, core inflation data -
Business activities (PMIs)

Short term Dollar strength with caveat - Potential for continued strength - influence on longer
term narrative and market pricing

Conclusion - Temporary strength in Dollar - Dependance on labour market expectations and

sentiment

GBP 🇬🇧
Recent Economic data and outlook - Strong services PMI growth - Concerns about wage
pressures and staffing - Steady unemployment rate

Interest rate expectations and market reactions - Shift in market expectations for rate cuts -
GBP strengthening due to longer period of higher rates

PMI data and business confidence - Watching GDP data, retail sales and three month
average GDP

GBP trading strategy - Tactical approach in pairs like GBPAUD and GBPUSD (Hedging)

Key factors influencing the GBP - Unemployment data, wage inflation - Bank of England’s
interest rate decisions

Conclusion - Potential strength in GBP depending on economic data

EUR 🇪🇺
Recent inflation data - Weaker than expected - Potential ECB rate cuts

ECB interest rate expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts - Impact on short term
direction on EUR

Currency Market Analysis 1/01/24 - 5/01/24 1

 Comparative economic weakness - Weakness in Eurozone’s economy, especially Germany -
Bearish outlook for EUR

Trading strategy - Bearish stance against stronger currencies - Tactical trading in pairs like
EURAUD

EURUSD - Key pivot levels, significance of 1.0850

Overall market dynamics - Focus on central bank rate cuts - Influence on USD strength or
weakness

Conclusion - Complex outlook for EUR - Monitoring economic data for trading decisions

AUD 🇦🇺
Recent Economic Data - Muted data with global influence - Weakening against USD

Influence of the US dollar and Fed minutes - Stronger USD leading to AUD downward trend

Interest rate expectations - Possibility of RBA rate hike

Technical analysis - Key levels in AUD related pairs

Outlook for AUD - Cautiously optimistic, influenced by commodity prices

Conclusion - Importance of global developments and RBA decisions

CAD 🇨🇦
Recent Economic Data - Mixed labour market report - Stable unemployment rate with wage
growth

Interest rate expectations - Bank of Canada’s rate cut and hike possibilities

Technical analysis - Key levels in CAD pairs

Oil prices and Geopolitical risk - Impact of oil prices and middle east tensions

Outlook for CAD - Bearish in short to medium term

Conclusion - Monitoring Canadian data and global trends

NZD 🇳🇿
Lack of significant data - Slow week

Influence of US data - Dependance on US economic developments

Technical analysis - Rangebound pairs such as NZDCAD and NZDCHF

NZDUSD - Movement tied to US dollar performance

Outlook for NZD - Dependant on external factors

Currency Market Analysis 1/01/24 - 5/01/24 2

 Conclusion - Importance on monitoring global developments

JPY& CHF 🇯🇵🇨🇭

BOJ policy and earthquake impact - Uncertainty in BOJ policy - Market expectation for end of
negative interest rate policy

Wage negotiations and inflation - Key factors for BOJ decision making

USDJPY movement - Fluctuations influenced by FED rate expectations

Swiss Franc - Limited data - Focus on EURCHF resistance levels

Outlook - Stability in CHF, monitoring global trends

Conclusion - Volatility in JPY and CHF

Currency Market Analysis 1/01/24 - 5/01/24 3