SCHOOL OF EDUCATION

DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND TECHNOLOGY

MASTER OF EDUCATION PROGRAMME

MEM5202: METHODOLOGIES OF EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

NAME: DENIS MAYEGA GUTO

REG NO: MED/2023/44125

ANSWER BOTH QUESTIONS

1.a. Discuss the methods of preparing manpower forecasts. (10 marks)

(a) Historical method/Employer Data Base Method

It is the analysis of data on past behavior in order to quantify the relationship which existed

between aggregate and per capita output on one hand, and the pattern of manpower usage on the

other. It involves getting an aggregate of all employers’ requirements plus estimates of deaths,

retirements, dismissals, voluntary resignations over the relevant period.

This data is forwarded to Ministry of Planning and Manpower Development for consolidation.

This data is used to make projections over the country’s manpower needs The final result will be

a forecast of increases in effective demand for labor by target year (Wanjala, 2002).
Shortcomings:

i) Its incapable of forecasting long-term human resource needs since it’s not easy to project the

economic state over a long period because of other drivers of the economy e.g. weather, national

or global politics, national calamities

ii) Not effective as some data may not be sufficient due to poor spatial coverage and response

rate by employers

(b) Survey method

The method is also known as “traditional high and middle-level manpower survey technique”

and is popularly applied in the developing countries. (Mutua and Namaswa, 1992).

It involves taking inventories of occupational classification of middle and high level employees

in both the public and private sectors of the economy.

Assumptions are then made about the desirability of appropriate educational qualifications for

various occupational categories. Existing vacancies are also recorded taking into account annual

wastage caused by deaths, retirements, replacement of expatriates and dismissals.

Estimates from inventories make it possible to estimate the present and future demand for human

resources by occupation and category

Shortcomings:

(i) Subject to Bias: Surveys rely on the input of people, and this can introduce biases.

Respondents may not always provide accurate or truthful information, especially if they have
personal biases or incentives to present information in a certain way. This can lead to an

inaccurate representation of the workforce's actual needs.

(ii) Limited Predictive Power: Surveys are typically point-in-time assessments, and they may

not account for dynamic changes in the job market, technology, or other external factors that can

affect workforce needs. As a result, survey-based manpower forecasts may become outdated

quickly, making it challenging to plan for the long-term.

(c)Structural approach /analogy approach/ international comparison

Involves taking time series data on employment from a single country with similar experiences

with the country in question or cross-sectional data from a range of countries.

Collected data is then used to make decisions pertaining to investment in human capital in order

to avoid shortages & surpluses in future

Shortcomings

(i) Assumption Dependency: The structural approach heavily relies on the validity of

assumptions made about the relationships between different variables. If these assumptions are

incorrect or if the underlying relationships change over time, the forecasts may be inaccurate.

(ii) Complexity and Resource Intensiveness: Implementing the structural approach can be

complex and resource-intensive. It requires access to comprehensive data sets, sophisticated

analytical tools, and skilled personnel to perform the necessary statistical analyses. Small

organizations or those with limited resources may struggle to implement this approach

effectively.
b) Using relevant examples, critically examine the applicability of manpower assumptions

in educational planning in your country (10 marks)

(i) Teacher Shortages and Surpluses:

Manpower assumptions often project whether there will be a shortage or surplus of teachers in

the future. For example, if the assumption is that there will be a shortage of mathematics

teachers, educational planners may focus on recruiting and training more math educators. The

accuracy of these assumptions is crucial. In some countries, there have been instances where

these assumptions were incorrect, leading to either underutilization of resources or critical

shortages. For instance, if there is an overestimation of teacher retirements, it may lead to

overproduction of new teachers, resulting in unemployment or underemployment.

(ii)Shifts in Educational Needs:

Assumptions about the educational needs of the population must align with changing

demographics and labor market demands. For example, if there is an assumption that there will

be a growing need for STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) education

due to a booming technology sector, policymakers may invest more in STEM-related programs.

However, if this assumption is incorrect, it can lead to misallocation of resources. In some cases,

the labor market demand for certain skills may not match the assumptions, resulting in an

oversupply or undersupply of graduates in specific fields.

(iii) Incorporating Technological Advancements:

Manpower assumptions should consider the impact of technology on education. The COVID-19

pandemic, for example, accelerated the adoption of online learning and digital tools. Manpower
assumptions about the need for technology integration specialists or the scaling of online

education must be accurate. If assumptions are outdated, they may lead to insufficient

investments in technology or an overemphasis on traditional teaching methods.

(iv) Long-Term Workforce Planning:

Education systems must make long-term workforce assumptions to prepare for the retirement of

experienced educators and to meet future demands. Inaccurate assumptions can lead to either an

understaffed or overstaffed workforce. For example, if an assumption is made that there will be a

surplus of teachers, this may lead to budget constraints and hiring freezes, potentially impacting

the quality of education.

(v) Evolving Student Demographics:

Educational planning must take into account shifts in student demographics. For instance,

assumptions about the increase in international students or a rise in the number of students with

special needs may require adjustments in the recruitment and training of teachers with relevant

expertise. Failure to align assumptions with these demographic changes can result in unmet

needs and educational inequalities.

(vi) Global Economic Trends:

Global economic trends and international labor markets can also influence the accuracy of

manpower assumptions. Assumptions should consider the potential for educators to seek

employment abroad, which could affect both teacher shortages and surpluses in the country.
Cat 2

1.a. The ministry of education has hired you as an educational expert. Design an effective

forecasting procedure to be used by the ministry in educational planning using the

manpower approach. (10

marks)

Step 1: Define Objectives and Scope

Clearly state the objectives of the educational planning process. Determine the scope, including

the level of education (e.g., primary, secondary, tertiary), specific subjects or programs, and any

special considerations (e.g., special education, vocational training).

Step 2: Data Collection and Analysis

(i)Historical Data Gathering:

Collect comprehensive data on student enrollment, teacher-to-student ratios, special education

needs, and any other relevant metrics for the past 5-10 years.

(ii) Demographic and Economic Analysis:

Study demographic trends, birth rates, migration patterns, and economic indicators that might

influence student enrollment and educational needs.

(iii)Technological and Curriculum Trends:

Analyze emerging technologies, curriculum changes, and educational reforms that may impact

the demand for specialized staff or training programs.

Step 3: Develop Assumptions

Based on the gathered data and analysis, formulate key assumptions that will be used as the basis

for manpower forecasting. These could include teacher-student ratios, special education

requirements, projected student enrollment, and any other relevant factors.

Step 4: Stakeholder Engagement

Engage with various stakeholders, including teachers, school administrators, parents, and local

education authorities. Gather their insights on potential changes, challenges, and opportunities in

the education landscape.

Step 5: Manpower Forecasting Models

Choose appropriate forecasting models that align with the objectives and available data.

Consider models such as:

(i)Trend Analysis:

Project future manpower needs based on historical trends in student enrollment, teacher-student

ratios, and other relevant metrics.

(ii) Regression Analysis:

Use statistical techniques to identify relationships between variables (e.g., student enrollment,

socio-economic factors) and forecast future needs.

(iii) Scenario Planning:

Develop different scenarios (e.g., high enrollment growth, economic downturn) and estimate

manpower requirements for each scenario.

(iv)Technological Forecasting:

Anticipate how technological advancements will impact educational needs, including the

demand for specialized IT staff or educators with tech expertise.

Step 6: Sensitivity Analysis

Conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of potential changes in assumptions or external

factors on the forecasted manpower needs. This helps identify areas of uncertainty and potential

risks.

Step 7: Validation and Calibration

Validate the forecasting models by comparing the projected manpower needs with actual data

from previous years. Adjust the models as necessary to improve accuracy.

Step 8: Documentation and Reporting

Document the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the manpower forecasts. Provide clear

and concise reports for stakeholders, including recommendations for resource allocation and

strategic planning.

Step 9: Continuous Monitoring and Updating

Regularly monitor key indicators and update the forecasts as new data becomes available. This

ensures that the educational planning remains aligned with current realities and future trends.
Step 10: Feedback and Improvement

Seek feedback from stakeholders and evaluate the effectiveness of the forecasting procedure.

Make necessary improvements to enhance the accuracy and relevance of future forecasts.

b. International standards and quality assurance officers are assessing a certain country’s

educational planning. Using examples, explain some the characteristics observed by the

officer to illustrate that there is educational crisis due to inefficient planning.

(10 marks)

When international standards and quality assurance officers assess a country's educational

planning, they may identify various characteristics that indicate an educational crisis resulting

from inefficient planning. Here are some examples that illustrate this:

(i) Overcrowded Classrooms:

Example: In a primary school, there are 50 students per classroom, making it difficult for

teachers to provide individualized attention and quality education.

Implication: High student-to-teacher ratios can lead to decreased learning outcomes and hinder

the effectiveness of teaching.

(ii) Outdated Curriculum:

Example: The curriculum used in schools is based on outdated content that doesn't align with

current industry needs or global educational standards.

Implication: An outdated curriculum may result in students being ill-prepared for the demands of

the job market or higher education.

(iii) Lack of Access to Quality Educational Resources:

Example: Schools do not have up-to-date textbooks, technology, or learning materials, and

there's limited access to libraries or digital resources.

Implication: Insufficient access to quality resources can hinder students' ability to engage with

the material effectively and limit their overall learning experience.

(iv) Inequitable Distribution of Educational Opportunities:

Example: There are significant disparities in educational access and quality between urban and

rural areas, with rural schools often lacking basic infrastructure and resources.

Implication: Inequitable access to education perpetuates social and economic disparities, limiting

opportunities for students in disadvantaged areas.

(v) Inadequate Support for Special Needs Students:

Example: There's a lack of specialized services and resources for students with disabilities or

special educational needs, resulting in exclusion or inadequate support.

Implication: Failing to address the needs of special education students hampers their ability to

fully participate in and benefit from the educational system.

(vi) High Dropout Rates:

Example: A significant number of students drop out of school before completing their education,

often due to factors like lack of financial support, inadequate infrastructure, or irrelevant

curriculum.
Implication: High dropout rates indicate that the education system is failing to engage and retain

students, resulting in a loss of human potential.

(vii) Insufficient Data Collection and Analysis:

Example: The education system lacks robust data collection mechanisms, making it challenging

to accurately track student performance, teacher effectiveness, and other key indicators.

Implication: Inadequate data collection hampers evidence-based decision-making and policy

formulation, leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation.

(viii) Limited Transparency and Accountability:

Example: There's a lack of transparency in budget allocation for education, and accountability

mechanisms for educational outcomes are weak or nonexistent.

Implication: Without transparency and accountability, it's difficult to ensure that resources are

allocated efficiently and that educational goals are being met.

(ix) Ineffective Policy Implementation:

Example: Despite having well-intentioned policies in place, there is a lack of effective

implementation due to bureaucratic hurdles, corruption, or insufficient monitoring mechanisms.

Implication: Ineffective policy implementation undermines the potential positive impact of

educational reforms and initiatives.