Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School

Session: May 2015

Modelling population
trend of India

1
Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Table of contents:

1. Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------- 3

2. Rationale --------------------------------------------------------------------4

3. Graphical linear equation ----------------------------------------------------9

4. Algebraic linear equation ---------------------------------------------------11

5. Exponential equation --------------------------------------------------------12

6. Logarithmic equation --------------------------------------------------------15

7. Comparison of absolute difference-----------------------------------------17

8. Further investigation----------------------------------------------------------18

9. Limitations---------------------------------------------------------------------19

10. Bibliography-------------------------------------------------------------------20

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Modelling Population trend of India:

Introduction:

Population is the sum of all individuals of a particular species or of the same group, living together
in the same geographical area. Population varies from country to country based on various reasons
such as demographic capacity, cultural background, climatic conditions, economy, and standard
of education, natality, mortality rate, immigration and emigration. It also depends upon people’s
own perspective and their thought process. India being the seventh largest country by area is also
the second most populated country in the world. Thus population is both a boon and bane for our
nation. Population is of greater importance because of the following attributed factors:

A: Economics and Government policies

• It enables the government to know how many people in the country have to be taken care
in terms of welfare or infrastructural facilities, jobs, etc. Thus it can draw out its annual
expenditure.

• It also enables the government to estimate the economic situation of the country, i.e., the total
unemployment, labor force, gross income, net income, etc. The government can know how
many people are affluent and how many live below the poverty line. Accordingly, it can
implement its monetary and fiscal policies. Tax rates, for example, can be estimated on the
basis of the number of working people in the country.

• Population figures will tell the government what population control policies are to be adopted.

• The population density (population per unit area) will enable the government to know the
pressure on land, water and other resources, thus helping it to allocate them judiciously.

• A dramatic rise in population will definitely affect demand, supply, prices, inflation, exports
and imports, thus impacting the entire economy of the country. Loans borrowed by the country
will depend on the ability of the country’s population to repay the interest with the principal
sum borrowed by increasing the country’s GDP. Therefore, a constant check has to be kept on
the population.

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

B: Agriculture and industry

• Production: Labor is required for production of agricultural or secondary commodities.
Population figures will highlight the labor availability for the agricultural and industrial
sectors. More the labor, more will be the productivity. Thus, population hints at the potential
industrial and agricultural growth in the country.

• Consumption: The population of the country will indicate to the agricultural and industrial
sectors how much to produce. More the population, more will be the expected output from
these sectors. Thus, population statistics are needed.

• Wages: when we consider a country like India, the population is very high. Thus, there is an
abundant supply of labor for the industrial and agricultural sectors. Because the supply of labor
is higher than the demand, the wages are much lower, than the wages any developed country
such as United States (where the supply of labor is lesser than the demand due to the low
population density).

C: Health and sanitation

• A constant rise in population increases the possibility of epidemics and diseases. Thus, the
population numbers constantly have to be watched.

• The number of health and sanitation facilities (like public toilets, urinals, drainage systems,
hospitals, medical care units, etc.) provided by the government will have to be in proportion to
the population of the country (there should be a shortage).

• Vaccination programs, national AIDS campaigns, disease awareness camps can only be
organized if population figures are known.

• The country’s environment-protection policies can only be determined once the size of the
population is known.

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Rationale:

I decided to model the population trend curve for India because I had a personal connection with
the topic. I have friends who are at present studying at government schools where the student
teacher ratio is relatively very high. Due to this the teacher’s supervision on each student is
comparatively low. This hinders the inquisitiveness among the students. The majority of the highly
inquisitive students pass out as average students. The demand for education is forever high based
on the very high population of children in the country thus with high population pressure the focus
of the nation is to give education to all rather than cultivating the inquisitiveness and innovative
thought of students. This practice varies among institutions increasing the inequality.

I am an avid traveler, I gain pleasure by tasting different food across the globe. An important aspect
that I analyzed is that the quality of the food varies from country to country depending on the
numbers of individuals in the country. Being a habitant of India, I noticed that many people are
malnourished and undernourished. The objective of Indian food production is to eliminate hunger
and in this process the quality of food is lost. As the demand increases the supply also increases
but in this case it’s nutritive value and quality is compromised. Population is the chief reason for
the following problems. This made me to introspect on modelling the population of India.by
finding the population trend, we can formulate solutions for the present scenario.

Population statistics is the use of statistics to analyze characteristics or changes to a population.

1. The best way to notice a trend in the population figures is by means of a graph.
2. On the x-axis, we have the years, whereas on the y-axis, we have the population figures
(in thousands, millions or billions usually).
3. The data points are plotted on the graph and a line joining them is drawn.

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 Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

The population in India from 1995 to 2014 has been presented in the table below:

Table 1: population of India from 1995 to 2014

Year(Y) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Population(in 928.00 946.00 964.00 983.00 1001.00 1019.00 1028.60 1056.00 1072.00
millions)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1089.00 1101.32 1117.73 1134.02 1150.20 1166.23 1186.00 1210.57 1213.37 1223.58 1238.8
9

It can be seen from the graph that the population figures are increasing with the number of years.
To represent this increase on a graph, it is important for me to first define the relevant variables
and parameters.

The variables are:

x-axis Number of years

y-axis Population (in millions)

To graphically represent the above data, I used excel to plot the graphs.

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Graph 1: population of India from 1995 to 2014

1400

1200
Population(in millions)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Number of years

From the graph, it is clear that it represents an increasing function.

The increase in population can be attributed to the following reasons:

• Increase in industrial or economic activity over the time period.

• Ineffective birth control techniques adopted in the country.
• Lack of awareness or education regarding population control and family planning
• Ineffective population control policies

The types of functions that can be used to model the above graph are:

• Increasing linear function

• Increasing exponential function

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Increasing linear function:

An increasing linear function of the form y = mx + b (where m is positive, indicating an

increasing function) could be the line of best fit that could pass through (or near) most of the data
points plotted.

Therefore, I wanted to see if this function would be the most appropriate for the data points and I
drew this function using an excel spread sheet. The graph generated has been presented on the
following page.

Increasing exponential function:

An exponential increase is depicted by the following diagram:

Figure 1.1: Diagram depicting an exponential increase1

Thus, the exponential function of form ex could model the function because from the sight of the
nature of the graph, the curve might touch the data points plotted. I used the same graphing
technology and the graph is present on the following page.

1http://www.spacecityseo.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/exponential-increase-in-sales-through-internet-
marketing.gif

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

To decide which graph best fits the function, I decided to calculate the difference table for each
graph.

The difference table records the value of ‘y’ determined from the given function for every value of
x and the difference between the actual values of ‘y’. If the difference happens to be too large, then
the function is deemed less accurate.

Graph 2: Graphical Linear function

1400
y = 16.598x - 32180
1200 R² = 0.9971
population(in millions)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
year(Y)

Graphical linear Equation: y = 16.598x - 32180

The graph of the linear function is sketched using excel and the equation is derived from the graph.
Using the linear function, the population trend is modelled and the absolute difference is calculated
by finding the difference of ‘y’ value determined by linear function and the actual value of ‘y’.

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Difference table:

Table 2: graphical linear equation

Absolute
Population
Population Absolute difference
(from the
Year(x) in India(y) difference(A)(per square(S)
linear
(data table) millions) (per
function)
millions)
1995 928.00 933.01 5.01 25.10
1996 946.00 949.61 3.61 13.02
1997 964.00 966.21 2.21 4.87
1998 983.00 982.80 -0.20 0.04
1999 1001.00 999.40 -1.60 2.55
2000 1019.00 1016.00 -3.00 9.00
2001 1028.60 1032.60 4.00 15.98
2002 1056.00 1049.20 -6.80 46.29
2003 1072.00 1065.79 -6.21 38.51
2004 1089.00 1082.39 -6.61 43.67
2005 1101.32 1098.99 -2.33 5.43
2006 1117.73 1115.59 -2.14 4.59
2007 1134.02 1132.19 -1.83 3.36
2008 1150.20 1148.78 -1.42 2.01
2009 1166.23 1165.38 -0.85 0.72
2010 1186.00 1181.98 -4.02 16.16
2011 1210.57 1198.58 -11.99 143.81
2012 1213.37 1215.18 1.81 3.26
2013 1223.58 1231.77 8.19 67.14
2014 1238.89 1248.37 9.48 89.91

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Graph 3: Algebraic linear equation

1400

1200 y = 16.36x - 31710

Population(in millions)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year(Y)

y = 16.36x - 31710

The algebraic equation is solved using simultaneous equations. When x = 1995 and x=2014 is
considered since the square of absolute difference comparatively less when compared to other x
values.

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Difference table:

Table 3: algebraic linear equation

Population Absolute
Population in Absolute
(from the difference
Year India (data difference(A)(per
algebraic linear square (S)
table) millions)
function) (per millions)
1995 928.00 928.05 0.05 0.00
1996 946.00 944.41 -1.59 2.53
1997 964.00 960.77 -3.23 10.43
1998 983.00 977.13 -5.87 34.46
1999 1001.00 993.49 -7.51 56.40
2000 1019.00 1009.85 -9.15 83.72
2001 1028.60 1026.21 -2.39 5.71
2002 1056.00 1042.57 -13.43 180.36
2003 1072.00 1058.93 -13.07 170.82
2004 1089.00 1075.29 -13.71 187.96
2005 1101.32 1091.65 -9.67 93.51
2006 1117.73 1108.01 -9.72 94.48
2007 1134.02 1124.37 -9.65 93.12
2008 1150.20 1140.73 -9.47 89.68
2009 1166.23 1157.09 -9.14 83.54
2010 1186.00 1173.45 -12.55 157.50
2011 1210.57 1189.81 -20.76 430.98
2012 1213.37 1206.17 -7.20 51.84
2013 1223.58 1222.53 -1.05 1.10
2014 1238.89 1238.89 0.00 0.00

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Graph 4: Exponential function

1400
y = 5E-11e0.0153x
1200 R² = 0.9931
population(in millions)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
year(Y)

Equation: y = 5×10-11 × e0.0153x

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Table 4: exponential equation

Population Absolute
Population in Absolute
(from the difference
Year India (data difference(A)(per
exponential square(S) (per
table) millions)
function) millions
1995 928.00 901.90 -31.11 967.83
1996 946.00 915.80 -33.81 1142.78
1997 964.00 929.92 -36.28 1316.46
1998 983.00 944.26 -38.54 1485.64
1999 1001.00 958.82 -40.58 1647.06
2000 1019.00 973.60 -42.40 1797.68
2001 1028.60 988.61 -43.99 1934.86
2002 1056.00 1003.85 -45.34 2055.90
2003 1072.00 1019.33 -46.46 2158.81
2004 1089.00 1035.05 -47.35 2241.64
2005 1101.32 1051.00 -47.99 2302.66
2006 1117.73 1067.21 -48.38 2340.62
2007 1134.02 1083.66 -48.52 2354.58
2008 1150.20 1100.37 -48.41 2343.92
2009 1166.23 1117.34 -48.05 2308.51
2010 1186.00 1134.56 -47.42 2248.56
2011 1210.57 1152.05 -46.52 2164.48
2012 1213.37 1169.82 -45.36 2057.53
2013 1223.58 1187.85 -43.92 1929.23
2014 1238.89 1206.17 -42.21 1781.43

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Graph 5: Logarithmic function:

1400
y = 33210ln(x) - 251407
1200
population(in millions)

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
year (Y)

Equation: y = 33210ln(x) - 251407

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Table 5: logarithmic equation:

Population Absolute
Population in Absolute
(from the difference
Year India (data difference(A)(per
logarithmic square(S)
table) millions)
function) (per millions
1995 928 935.84 7.84 61.48
1996 946 952.48 6.48 42.04
1997 964 969.12 5.12 26.19
1998 983 985.74 2.74 7.53
1999 1001 1002.36 1.36 1.85
2000 1019 1018.97 -0.03 0.00
2001 1028 1035.57 7.57 57.32
2002 1056 1052.16 -3.84 14.71
2003 1072 1068.75 -3.25 10.58
2004 1089 1085.32 -3.68 13.51
2005 1101 1101.89 0.89 0.80
2006 1117 1118.45 1.45 2.11
2007 1134 1135.00 1.00 1.00
2008 1150 1151.55 1.55 2.39
2009 1166 1168.08 2.08 4.33
2010 1186 1184.61 -1.39 1.94
2011 1210 1201.13 -8.88 78.77
2012 1213 1217.64 4.63 21.48
2013 1223 1234.14 11.14 124.03
2014 1238 1250.63 12.63 159.52

A comparison of the absolute differences obtained from the different functions is done, to see
which of them best models the population of India.

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Table 6: comparison of absolute difference square(S)

Absolute
difference Absolute Absolute difference Absolute
square in difference square square in difference
square in
graphical linear in algebraic linear exponential logarithmic
function(A) function(A) function(A) function(A)

25.10 0.00 967.83 61.48

13.02 2.53 1142.78 42.04

4.87 10.43 1316.46 26.19

0.04 34.46 1485.64 7.53

2.55 56.40 1647.06 1.85

9.00 83.72 1797.68 0.00

15.98 5.71 1934.86 57.32

46.29 180.36 2055.90 14.71

38.51 170.82 2158.81 10.58

43.67 187.96 2241.64 13.51

5.43 93.51 2302.66 0.80

4.59 94.48 2340.62 2.11

3.36 93.12 2354.58 1.00

2.01 89.68 2343.92 2.39

0.72 83.54 2308.51 4.33

16.16 157.50 2248.56 1.94

143.81 430.98 2164.48 78.77

3.26 51.84 2057.53 21.48

67.14 1.10 1929.23 124.03

89.91 0.00 1781.43 159.52

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

From table 5, it is clear that the logarithmic function is the most accurate for modeling the
population trend because the difference between the values of y obtained from the function and
the value of y (or the population) given in the data table is the lowest.

I initially expected that the exponential equation would have a less absolute difference since as
we know population is increasing exponentially but after obtaining the y values for the graphical
linear equation, it appears to be a best fit for modelling the population trend of India.

Further extended model: Box plot model for population of India from 1995 to 2014

Min = 656.5

Max = 2285.5

Q1 = 5.3(lower quartile)

Q2 = 10.5(median)

Q3 = 15.8 (upper quartile)

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

IQR= Q3- Q1

= 15.8-5.3

=10.5 (difference between upper quartile and lower quartile)

Range = max – min

= 2285.5-656.5

= 1629.0

From the above box plot, it can be seen that the mean population is 10.5 million. The maximum
population is 2285.5 million and the minimum population is 656.5 million. The range is 10.5
million. This could be a further extension for interpreting the data.

Further investigation:

It would be interesting to find the population trends for different countries using graphical linear
equations and comparing the results obtained. Exponential equation raised to different powers
can be analyzed to see the variation in the results.

Limitations for the obtained model

There are chances for sudden occurrence of any natural calamity such as a major famine or
tsunami. Due to the survival of large number of individual in a limited space, the chances of disease
to spread within the population might increase. Birth control is difficult to achieve due to several
religious belief and the role of women is limited in some societies.

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Candidate Name: Abinaya Mahendran Candidate Number: 049062-0001 School: CPS Global School
Session: May 2015

Bibliography:

"India Population | 1995-2015 |." India Population | 1950-2015 |. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Feb. 2014.
<http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/population>.

Bloom, David E. Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth. St.
Gallen: WDA-Forum, U of St. Gallen, 2011. Population Dynamics in India and Implications for
Economic Growth. Web. 18 Mar. 2015.

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