 Economic Crisis and the Political Instability in Pakistan- Causes

and Solutions.
 Climate Change and Natural Disasters in Pakistan- What need to
be done.
 Pakistan’ National Security Policy: Why it matters for internal,
external challenges and regional stability?
 Global-Energy politics!

Topic 4: 2022 Floods and role of NDMA in Pakistan

1. Introduction
2. Defining
a. Disasters and disaster management

3. Outlining the role of NDMA in Pakistan

a. Planning for future natural and manmade disasters
b. Issuing early warnings about more than usual rainfall
c. Stockpiling of supplies
d. Evacuation and rehabilitation strategies

4. Phases of disaster management: A tale of pathetic affairs

a. Mitigation
b. Preparedness
c. Response
d. Recovery

5. Overview of 2022 floods: failures of NDMA

a. One third of country under water
b. 2000 dead and 33 million displaced
c. Over 40 billion USD damages
d. Inflation and food shortages

6. Reasons behind the damages and poor performance of NDMA

a. Natural vulnerability of Pakistan vis-à-vis climate change
b. Significant changes in weather patterns and ill-preparedness of NDMA
c. Disconnect between NDMA/PDMAs and meteorological department
d. Poor governance and weak political will
e. Illegal and uncontrolled constructions
7. Implications

a. Intractable political and economic crises

b. Worsening humanitarian crises
c. Exacerbating infrastructure losses

8. Suggestions to improve the functioning of NDMA

a. Hazard and risk assessment
b. Effective communication and preparedness
c. Disaster risk-reduction education
d. Promoting disaster-risk planning
e. Effective community and local level risk-reduction programming
f. Improving multi-hazard early warning system
g. Capacity building for post-disaster recovery
9. Conclusion

2022 Floods in Pakistan and role of NDMA!!

Introduction
Present situation
Causes
https://stratagem.pk/cover-story/floods-in-pakistan-wrath-of-nature-or-man-
made-calamity/
Climate Change and resultant global warming leading to stronger moonsons
with higher perspiration.
Pakistan’s physiography
Poor planning and governance
Deforestation
https://www.jworldtimes.com/the-flood-disaster/
Historical

However, these floods are not a one-time occurrence in Pakistan. In fact,

according to the Federal Flood Commission, Pakistan has witnessed
approximately 28 floods since its independence in 1947. Despite these
recurring floods, there exists a serious lack of infrastructure and a stringent
policymaking process to support the response to these floods and reduce the
damages incurred by the people of Pakistan as well as the economy. In 2022
alone, we have yet to receive transparent reports on what steps are being taken
by the government to respond to the affected Pakistanis and what
development plans are underway to prevent such destruction in the future.

Implications
Economic
Health related
Infrastructure damage
Agricultural sector
Food insecurity
https://iips.com.pk/devastating-impact-of-floods-in-pakistan/

Efforts
Suggestion
The catastrophic floods are a wake-up call for systemic changes to address the underlying vulnerabilities
to natural hazards and their intersection with other shocks. At this critical point, swift action is necessary
for a paradigm shift to build systemic resilience to natural hazards in development planning and asset
management. This requires a participatory and inclusive approach, bringing together civil society,
government, private sector, academia, think tanks, and the international community around a common
vision. Stakeholder engagement will be necessary to inform the scope, design, institutional arrangements,
and a monitoring and accountability framework for a comprehensive resilient recovery program. Such a
program should prioritize the urgent needs of the affected population while ensuring that results are
delivered in an efficient, equitable, and transparent manner. Building on global good practices of recovery
and integrating the specific socioeconomic, cultural, and institutional context of Pakistan through a
people-centric approach will be crucial.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2374654/disaster-management-mechanism
Loopholes in existing mechanism
First and the most important thing is that weather forecast given by metrological department has not been reliable.
That is due to lack of technology; but, recently drastic changes in climate have become really hard to predict and
rely upon. Moreover, it is a perception among general public that 2010 floods were not natural rather they have been
engineered. Therefore, general public does not take flood warnings seriously. Secondly, there has been weak culture
of disaster preparedness; rather major focus is on disaster management. For instance, anti-encroachment campaign
begins just a month before monsoon normally. That makes it impossible to achieve desirable results. On August 22
three men died and many houses got damaged in a flash flood in Azakhel Payan, Nowshera. Those were also
stationed in the river bed. There are seven watercourses running through Nowshera that enter river Kabul at different
points. All are obstructed by silt and encroachments. Whenever there are heavy showers upstream, there is a flash
flood that causes damages of life and property. Similarly, human resource is not channelised well before time and
available stock of required equipment is not calculated and maintained. Resultantly, when disaster occurs there are
mammoth problems.
Thirdly, there has been weak coordination among various agencies. Administration does not know where army is
operating and NGOs don’t know where they need to work. There is a very scaring example that in 2010 when
Terbela Dam got filled, the army officials were almost ready to release the water back stream towards Nowshera that
must have drowned areas of Khairabad and surroundings. But probably administration was not on board for that
decision. Similarly, hundreds of NGOs, national and international came during 2010 but, till to date there has been
rehabilitation work going on and many among most deserving remained deprived. That shows weak coordination.
Fourthly, lack of quick response in post-flood rescue activities is a major problem. At times there is no cooked food
available, sometimes there is shortage of tents, other day there is shortage of medicines and an outbreak of a disease
is expected and innumerable transformers, bridges, communication lines are left damaged. Fifthly, misinformation,
panic and unrest spread by unauthenticated news cause a lot of trouble and that also leads to politicisation of the
event and causes more inconvenience for the flood ridden public.
There is a dire need of de-silting of rivers, water channels in order to facilitate the uninterrupted flow of water.
Moreover, there is a need of proactive and correct coordination among departments and agencies.
https://www.jworldtimes.com/the-flood-disaster/

Conclusion
COPS 27

200 states. Held in Egypt, Sharm al Sheikh

A global summit on countering climate change- Conference of parties. Started as a result of 1992 UN
Convention Framework on climate change.

Every year states are asked to deliberate upon, discuss and reach a consensus on the topic.

Kyoto protocol 1997 was the result of COPS

However most important meeting is considered as COPS 21 which resulted in the signing of the Paris Climate
Accord. It set forth certain goal and in subsequent COPS it was discussed on how to achieve the goals of Paris
Climate Accord.

States agreed to reduce the global temperature to 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial levels. Ultimately 2 but
1.5 was ideal. To deaccelerate global temperature, which in 2022 is 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial levels,
states agreed to undertake certain measure. Nationally Deferential Contribution were determined.

Developed states- by the end of this decades have to achieve net carbon zero.

According to scientists NDCs were not enough to achieve the target. It was agreed that after every five years
states will update and new NDCs will be agreed on.

2020- it was seen that states were unable to keep up their commitment but in the wake of climate catastrophes-
it must become irreversible. Reformed NDCs are required on annual basis and accountability of states to build
pressure. It was decided at COPS 26 at Glasgow.

Why is COPS 27 important?

Russia-Ukraine war- European states are shifting towards coal-based

US-China conflict and Taiwan. Any bilateral agreement was least likely

Held in Egypt. Civil society freedom is limited. Military rule.

Domestic situation of states also affects state’s climate change pledges. E.g.- UK PM first refused to
participate in COPS 27.

MAJOR TAKEWAYS OF THE SUMMIT

1. No Progress on Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Current commitments fall far short of the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, and countries
failed to come to the table with more ambitious commitments. Instead, many are backing away
from their prior commitments in light of the global energy crisis and rising inflation.

Concerning the fourth dilemma coming out of the COP27 regarding limits on the use of
coal energy and the disposal of fossil fuels, we are seeing significant backtracking by the
European countries on this commitment made at the COP26 Conference in Glasgow. Their
position is seen as justified given the war in Ukraine and the end of Russian oil supplies,
despite calls from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to halt the construction of new
coal-fired power plants if we are to contain global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Next year’s COP28 will mark the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake — a mechanism that
measures the world’s progress on implementing the commitments of Paris Agreement. Pressure
will continue to mount as that date approaches, but there are few signs that countries are going to
deliver on those commitments.

2. China and the U.S. are Back at the Table.

3. The Creation of a Loss and Damage Fund

THE DILLEMMA: This fund, however, lacks financial resources until the developed countries
agree on funding levels and identify participating donors. That is the first dilemma emerging
from the COP27, as the devil is in the details. Countries like China, India, and Brazil are among
the largest emitters of CO2, an important greenhouse gas, today. But these countries classify
themselves as developing countries, making them entitled to compensation from rather than
contributions to the loss and damage fund set up at the COP27. They hold that climate change is
a result of the Industrial Revolution of which they were not a part, saying that the developed
countries alone must bear the full burden of paying for its effects. The problem with this view
lies mostly with China, which is highly industrialised and should be on the donor side of the
equation.

4. Work Outside of the COP Framework

One example of a parallel process that can yield results is the Global Methane Pledge (GMP),
which has now been signed by over 150 countries. Launched during last year’s COP26 in
Glasgow, Scotland, the GMP seeks to reduce emissions of methane by at least 30 percent within
the decade.
At COP15 in 2009, developed countries committed to a collective goal of mobilising USD
100 billion per year by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries. Since 2015,
at the request of donor countries, the OECD has been measuring progress towards this goal.

Pakistan’s stance
A Call for Climate Justice

Up until now, the rallying cry from the current PML-N/PPP government has focused on climate
justice. However, the narrative has expanded to include debt relief and climate financing.
During his trip to the U.N. General Assembly, Prime Minister Sharif made a forceful argument
for debt relief as a part of climate justice, stating that “all hell will break loose” if rich nations do
not provide Pakistan with debt relief.
On Monday at COP27, Prime Minster Sharif, standing alongside U.N. Secretary General
António Guterres, reiterated the call for debt relief and climate compensation for Pakistan as
public debt was “hampering its recovery.” Even Guterres called upon the international
community and multilateral lending institutions to reform their polices and allow for debt swaps,
especially in the aftermath of natural disasters.
To this end, Pakistan could draw lessons from efforts by Small Island Developing States, who
have engaged in discussions about tying debt relief to plans for adaption to climate change and
disaster responses.
A “debt-for-climate” swap would entail all or part of a country’s multilateral or bilateral debt to
be forgiven — under the condition that the borrowing country will utilize those newly available
funds for climate adaptation, mitigation and disaster management. There are examples of debt-
for-climate swaps on a smaller scale, such as between the United States and Jamaica for
conservation efforts. But there is very little precedent for the scale of swap that Pakistan might
pursue. To build traction for a large-scale debt-for-climate swap, Pakistan would need to have a
tangible plan with clear benchmarks in place for how these freed-up funds would be utilized in
an equitable manner.

How to Capitalize on COP27

A blank check for purely development assistance will not help Pakistan. The Pakistani state, at
all levels, needs to focus on longer-term technical assistance and build their own internal
capacity to create resilience to future natural disasters. At COP27, international partners and
possible donors will be looking for indications that Pakistan is ready to commit to this sort of
forward-thinking strategy for tackling its climate change challenges in the years ahead.
To some degree, Pakistan has laid the groundwork already. The most recent National Security
Policy (NSP) included action against climate change as a component of human security.
However, the NSP narrowly defined climate change by connecting it with water security. Food
security and other related issues were discussed separately. Written in 2021 and published in the
early months of 2022, the policy does not consider how climate change and climate-induced
disasters impact all aspects of human security — such as migration and population, gender
security, food security and health security. All of these issues were exacerbated by the floods and
will worsen in the post-flood recovery period.
To address its overarching climate change challenge, the Pakistan government recently
established the National Flood Response Coordination Center (NFRCC). Modeled after the
mechanism used by the previous government to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, the
NFRCC is tasked with ensuring coordination across various agencies involved in both the flood
response and rehabilitation efforts, as well as working with international donors and
nongovernmental organizations on relief.
But new systems and bodies are not always the answer, or the answer alone. And if Pakistan is to
capitalize on its opportunity at COP27 and beyond, the state must show a willingness to
strengthen established institutions tasked with addressing disasters, whether natural or man-
made. This includes the National Disaster Management Authority, which was established after
the 2010 floods, along with their provincial counterparts. The Pakistani government must
commit to adequate funding for these institutions as well as the National Disaster Risk
Management Fund and the District Disaster Management Authorities across the country.
Moving forward, the Pakistani government must develop a roadmap for sweeping internal
reforms when it comes to climate change preparedness and identify key entry points for the
international community to support Pakistan’s efforts to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of
climate change.