2024
3, MARCH 2019
Reliability Analysis of Next-Generation CBTC
Data Communication Systems
Li Zhu , Dingyi Yao, and Hongli Zhao
Abstract—Communication-based train control (CBTC) systems
are automated train control systems using wireless communica-
tions. The normal operation of CBTC systems depends on a reliable
data communication system. The existing CBTC data communi-
cation system are based on train-to-ground communication, which
suffers from too many subsystem interfaces and makes ground
equipment extremely complicated. In next-generation CBTC sys-
tems, train-to-train communication is adopted with the advan-
tages of higher efficiency and briefer system structure. Although
train-to-train communication based CBTC systems has been im-
plemented in urban rail systems. The data communication system
reliability has not been studied before. In this paper, the next gen-
eration CBTC data communication system reliability is modeled
with Deterministic and stochastic Petri nets (DSPNs). We design
a next generation CBTC data communication system using LTE
technologies, and set up laboratory test environment to test system
performance. The performance data is converted as DSPN model
parameters to evaluate system reliability. With the tested system
performance measures, we evaluate the reliability of data commu-
nication scenarios, which includes the reconnection and handoff
scenarios. Extensive simulation results are then given to illustrate
the system reliability, which considers both the train to train com-
munication link and train to ground communication link.
Index Terms—CBTC, data communication system, LTE,
reliability.
I. INTRODUCTION
ITH the characteristics of large volume, fast speed, high
W frequency and punctuality, urban rail transit system has
become the best solution to relieve urban traffic congestion [1],
[2]. To ensure the normal operation of the urban rail system,
a safe and reliable train control system is needed. As the core
system of urban rail transit, train control system controls the
direction and speed of train to ensure the interval between trains,
and improve the efficiency and transport capacity of the rail
Manuscript received March 17, 2018; revised May 22, 2018 and July 20,
2018; accepted July 28, 2018. Date of publication September 13, 2018; date
of current version March 14, 2019. This work was supported in part by the
Beijing Natural Science Foundation (L161006, L171004), in part by the National
Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61603026 and 61790573,
in part by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under
Grants 2018JBM076 and 2018JBZ002 and projects RCS2017ZZ003, and in part
by the Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Rail Transit Automation and Control.
The review of this paper was coordinated by the Guest Editors of the Special
Issue on Smart Rail Mobility. (Corresponding author: Li Zhu.)
The authors are with the State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and
Safety, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China (e-mail:,zhulibjtu@
gmail.com; 15120304@bjtu.edu.cn; hlzhao@bjtu.edu.cn).
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TVT.2018.2870053
0018-9545 © 2018 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See http://www.ieee.org/publications standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VEHICULAR TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 68, NO.
transit system under the premise of safe train operation. Over
the last decade, Communication-based train control (CBTC)
has been widely used in mass transit systems for its lower cost,
greater passenger capacity and higher efficiency.
CBTC systems are automated train control systems of rail-
way systems [3] in which the data communication system plays
the key role to enable a wide range of safety [4], [5]. As a key
subsystem of CBTC, data communication system connects all
the subsystems together. In existing CBTC systems, train ground
communication are the most crucial part of data communication
systems. This is because the information trains needed to achieve
accurate control are from the ground equipment, and the train
need to report its own state to the ground equipment. Both of
these two interactions are through train ground communication.
This kind of design comply with commercial product standard,
which make the system easy to implement. However, it creates
too many interfaces between subsystems, which makes ground
equipment extremely complicated. It also leads to a large num-
ber of real-time interactions among subsystems, poor operability
and efficiency. These shortcomings of existing CBTC systems
arouse the concern of scholars in the field of train control. Peo-
ple begin to devote themselves to studying the next generation
CBTC data communication system using train-to-train commu-
nication. With the adoption of train to train communication, the
next generation CBTC system can overcome most of the prob-
lems in existing system without sacrifice system performance. It
has become a new direction for research on train control system
of urban rail transit in this century.
CBTC systems are typical complex distributed real-time sys-
tems. The normal operation of the system is dependent on a sta-
ble, real-time, secure and reliable data communication system.
Substantial researches have been done on data communication
system performance analysis and optimization [6]–[13]. Data
communication system performance tests have also been car-
ried out under indoor or outdoor environment. For example, in
[14], the real LTE based system is built on the ring rail line in
Beijing to perform the field test. The test results analysis illus-
trates the disadvantages of using LTE in urban rail, and gives
some advises for LTE-M based system design in engineering.
In [15], [16], a laboratory test environment and a real field test
environment are set up. Test results show that the handoff perfor-
mance of TD-LTE meets the demands of urban rail transit sys-
tems. Our previous works [17]–[20] design and optimize com-
munication protocol stacks based on MIMO enabled WLAN
and Stream Control Transmission Protocol (SCTP) to improve
the CBTC system performance. The authors of [21] study the
ZHU et al.: RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF NEXT-GENERATION CBTC DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
deployment of access points in train control data communication
systems and improve the reliability of train control systems by
improving the deployment of access points. The above research
tests and studies the CBTC data communication system perfor-
mance. However, none of them carry out a comprehensive test
according to the train control requirement. The system reliabil-
ity, which is the crucial system measures is also ignored in these
works.
In addition to the researches about the data communication
system performance optimization. System reliability is the other
important measure of data communication system, since it have
a severe impact on the safety and stability of the train con-
trol system, which is of great significance to the entire system
[22]–[25]. CBTC data communication system reliability in tra-
ditional CBTC system has been widely studied in recent years.
Literature [26], [27] focus on performance of the wireless LAN
(WLAN) based CBTC systems with ideal channels. Referring
to the modelling process in literature [28], the dependability un-
der various transmission conditions is modeled and evaluated in
[24]. In literature [29], the Markov model of DCS structure is es-
tablished for the redundant and non-redundant structure of DCS
(Data Communication System) system in CBTC system in order
to analyze the reliability and availability. The effect of different
system redundancy and the relationship between the availability
of DCS system and the speed of train is also discussed. Exist-
ing literature based on the theoretical analysis or field test of
the tunnel environment sets up a variety of signal transmission
and attenuation models in refs [30], [31] for dependability anal-
ysis. References [30]–[33] test the influences of straights and
corners in different environment on signals, and summarize the
basic principles of network. Reference [34] introduces a wire-
less signal attenuation based on ray-tracing simulation exploit-
ing CBTC radio system test platform for long AP field strength
distribution and interference tests. And several key indicators
of wireless communication capacity are pointed out in literature
[35], [36] for the reliability and availability of wireless commu-
nications that have been greatly improved and widely used in
CBTC [37].
The data communication system in next generation CBTC
systems has significant changes compared with existing CBTC
systems, and its reliability should be studied urgently. So far as
we know, there are few researches about the data communication
system reliability in next generation CBTC systems. Although
extensive researches have been done to assess the reliability of
existing CBTC data communication systems, the existing ana-
lytical methods cannot be used directly to analyze the reliability
of the next generation CBTC data communication. In addition,
the system performance parameters that used to evaluate sys-
tem reliability have not been tested thoroughly. In this paper, the
reliability analysis of next generation CBTC system based on
train-to-train communication is conducted. The contributions of
this paper are as follows,
1) We describe the framework of next generation CBTC sys-
tems, and the data communication system based on train-to-train
communication process is explained with details. In addition,
the data communication system reliability is defined according
to CBTC system principle.
2025
2) We design an LTE based next generation CBTC data
communication system, and set up laboratory test environ-
ment to test system performance. The performance data is dis-
cussed, and converted as model parameters to evaluate system
reliability.
3) The data communication scenarios which includes link re-
connection, handoff and communication system reliability are
modeled with Deterministic and stochastic Petri nets (DSPNs).
DSPN is one kind of timed transition Petri nets that provides
a unified framework for performance and reliability analysis of
computer and communication systems. It is recognized as a use-
ful modeling technique because of their capability to represent
constant delays which appear in many practical systems. In this
paper, we use DSPN to model the next generation CBTC data
communication system reliability.
4) With the tested system performance measures, we first an-
alyze the data communication scenarios reliability. Extensive
simulation results are then given to illustrate the system reli-
ability, which considers both the train to train communication
link and train to ground communication link.
The rest of this paper is structured as follows. The next gen-
eration CBTC system based on train-to-train communication
is described in Section II. In Section III, we design the next
generation CBTC data communication system using LTE tech-
nologies, and system performance is tested in a laboratory envi-
ronment. The DSPN reliability model is established and solved
for the designed system in Section IV. Some numerical results
are discussed in Section V. Finally, in Section VI, we present
the conclusions and future works.
II. THE RELIABILITY DEFINITION OF NEXT GENERATION
CBTC DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
A. The Next Generation CBTC System Structure
The basic structure of existing CBTC systems is shown in
Fig. 1a. It mainly includes data communication system (DCS),
automatic train supervision (ATS) system, computer interlock-
ing (CI), zone controller (ZC) and vehicle on board controller
(VOBC). In existing CBTC system, automatic train supervi-
sion(ATS) sends route messages to the zone controller (ZC)
through backbone network. Thereafter the zone controller for-
mulates movement authority (MA) according to the location
reports of all the traveling trains as well as the condition of
trackside controllers, and then transmits MAs to each train. The
VOBC on each train control the speed of the train based on its
own position and the received MAs.
The basic architecture of next generation CBTC systems is
shown in Fig. 1b. Compared with existing train control sys-
tems, zone controller (ZC) and CI function are integrated in
trains and trackside controllers in the next generation train con-
trol system, which eliminates the need for existing unneces-
sary subsystems. In addition, ATS communicates directly with
VOBC and sends routing information to VOBC. VOBC can
straightforwardly control the rotation and opening of the turnout
according to the route information. In the meantime, another
major advantage of the new system is the direct communica-
tion between trains. Each train obtain the front train states and
2026
Fig. 1. The structure of existing and next generation CBTC system.
calculates its movement authority (MA) without the assistance
of ZC or other servers. This new design tremendously simpli-
fies the communication system complexity by retrenching the
process of train communication and reducing system coupling
degree, improving the performance of entire system.
One of the critical part of next generation CBTC system is the
data communication system. Data communication reliability is
the most important measure in CBTC system. This is because
when communication link is not available when needed, trains
may not be able to successfully obtain the front train state, and
control command are not able to be transmitted to trackside
equipment. It will have a significantly negative impact on train
control performance. Therefor, data communication system re-
liability need to be defined and evaluated to guarantee CBTC
system performance.
B. The Next Generation CBTC Data Communication
System Reliability Definition
In next generation CBTC systems, based on the position of
all the trains and obstacles alone the rail, each train compute its
MA. The ATP on the train computes the real-time braking curve
according to the newest received MA. Once the train velocity
reaches the target velocity on the braking curve, the ATP will
start braking to protect the train from traveling out of its MA.
According to the principle of next generation CBTC systems,
it is desirable to maintain the communication link between two
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VEHICULAR TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 68, NO. 3, MARCH 2019
Fig. 2. Data communication system reliability defninition.
communication terminals available within a certain period of
time T . Therefore, we define the data communication reliability
in next generation CBTC system as the probability when one
communication terminal can successfully receive information
from the other communication terminal within time window T .
The time window starts when terminals receive a packet from
other terminals. As shown in Fig. 2, in CBTC systems, it is con-
sidered that data packets are exchanged at every communication
period. When the time between two consecutive received data
packets is less than time window T , the data communication
system is considered to be reliable, otherwise it is unreliable.
III. DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE TEST OF NEXT GENERATION
CBTC DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEM BASED ON LTE
As the mainstream of the fourth generation communication
technology, LTE can achieve a faster data rate, more stable hand-
off and lower transmission delay. It has strong anti-interference
ability, priority protection mechanism, strong mobile access,
good maintainability, and high system reliability. Due to its ad-
vantages in high mobile environment, LTE has become a popular
wireless technology in urban rail transit system. Therefore, in
this paper, we take LTE to build a next generation CBTC data
communication system, and test system performance.
A. The Next Generation CBTC Data Communication
System Based on LTE
We use the devise LTE Evolved Packet Core (EPC), Baseband
Unit (BBU), Radio Remote Unit (RRU), and Terminal Access
Unit (TAU) to build the next generation CBTC data communi-
cation system. The system can be logically divided into three
parts: core layer, access layer and TAU layer. The core layer is
the key part of entire wireless network, completes the collection
and distribution of wireless transmission data, and interconnects
with other service subsystems to provide them with reliable bidi-
rectional data communication services. The core layer includes
the EPC and the control center of CBTC. The access layer is LTE
base stations that provide wireless access services along the rail.
ZHU et al.: RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF NEXT-GENERATION CBTC DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS 2027

It has interface with the EPC, and provide data access service for
TAU. The access layer includes BBU and RRU. BBU handles
the baseband signal and connects RRU through the fiber. RRU
converts the baseband signal to an optical signal and zooms it in
at the other end. RRU communicates with the TAU through air
interface. The terminal layer consists of vehicle-mounted wire-
less terminals and is used to connect to the trackside wireless
network.
To realize data communication of different subsystems in
CBTC systems, train-to-train communication and train-to-
ground communication are both used in next generation CBTC
system. Therefore, we need to evaluate the reliability of these
two kinds of communication link to evaluate system reliability.
As described in the last section, the defined system reliability
is mainly dependent on the end to end communication interrup-
tion or latency, which are caused by connection loss or handoff.
Therefore, we build a laboratory test environment to test the
interruption time caused in these two scenarios. Details about
test configuration and test results will be described in the next
section. Fig. 3. Test topology diagram of interruption time caused by connection loss.

B. Performance Tests of Next Generation CBTC Data

Communication System Based on LTE
The purpose of performance parameter test is to simulate
the communication links in the next generation CBTC data
communication system to obtain the system communication
performance parameters. In this paper, we use the channel sim-
ulator, programmable attenuator, fixed attenuator and other ex-
perimental equipment to simulate the communication link. The
communication interruption time caused by connection loss and
handoff are tested under the simulated link.
1) Test of Interruption Time Caused by Connection Loss: In
urban rail transit environment, mobile stations on trains will
inevitably encounter poor channel states and lose the communi-
cation connection. Communication interruption will be caused
when the mobile station try to reestablish a communication link.
This section is dedicated to do the interruption time performance
test when the connection is lost.
In order to test system performance by simulating real urban
rail environment. We set up an indoor test system using profes-
sional test devices. The communication test topology between
the train and ground terminal is shown in Fig. 3. It consists of
three parts. PC1 represents the ground equipment and PC2 rep-
resents the train equipment. Between trains and the ground is an
analog communication environment that is bridged by EuBUS
and EB Propsim, where EuBUS is a programable attenuator,
and EB Propsim is the channel simulator.
The ground terminal represented by PC1 includes EPC, BBU
and RRU. The train equipment is composed of PC and Customer
Premise Equipment(CPE). The use of wireless outdoor CPE
can increase the transmission distance between wireless base
stations and clients. The analog communications environment
consists of EuBUS, EB Propsim, and power dividers. The Eu-
BUS programmable attenuator simulates the large-scale fading
of train signals. As a channel simulator, EB Propsim simulates
the propagation environment by pre-calculating files to simulate
Fig. 4. Interruption time caused by connection loss.
the attenuation, fading, delay, and Doppler frequency shift char-
acteristics of wireless single-channel transmission during train
operation. In order to test the LTE-based communication link
capability in a high-speed environment, we use the EB Propsim
channel simulator to simulate a train speed of 160 km/h.
When communication connection is lost, the system will au-
tomatically start reconnection process. The signaling analyzers
can be used to observe the signaling interaction of the recon-
nection process, which is used to perform statistical analysis on
the reconnection delay of the system. The interruption time of
100 reconnections are collected and illustrated in Fig. 4.
2) Test of Interruption Time Caused by Handoff: In LTE
based CBTC data communication systems, base stations are de-
ployed approximately every 1.2 km. With trains travel 160 km/h,
handoff happens quite often in CBTC systems. The impor-
tant parameter is the communication interruption when handoff
happens.
In order to test handoff interruption in indoor environment.
We set up an laboratory test system to simulate the real
handoff scenario. The test system topology is shown in Fig. 5.
2028
Fig. 5. Test topology diagram of interruption time caused by handoff.
Fig. 6. Response time performance.
PC1 represents the ground equipment and PC2 represents the
train equipment. BBU1 and RRU1 constitute the community
A, BBU2 and RRU2 constitute the community B by Network
Management System (NMS), and PC1 controls the base sta-
tion. In the analog communication environment, the EuBUS
programmable attenuator is required to simulate the large-scale
fading of the communication signal. The periodic variation of
the EuBUS programmable attenuator is set so that the TAU
receives signals from two RRUs to achieve a handoff every
10 seconds. The EB Propsim channel simulator is still used to
simulate the train speed of 160 km/h. The power divider is used
as a combiner to combine two signals from two RRUs, and then
outputs the dual channel signal to the isolator. The isolator is
used to isolate uplink and downlink signal.
We take IxChariot to conduct the test and obtain the trans-
mission delay of a given traffic. IxChariot is a popular commu-
nication system performance test tool, and it has been widely
used in diverse networks. We set the traffic transmission rate to
be 256 kbps and data packets to be 400 Btytes. As shown in
Fig. 6 The tested handoff interruption is basically concentrated
in range from 50 ms to 80 ms, and the average handoff delay is
62 ms.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VEHICULAR TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 68, NO. 3, MARCH 2019
IV. DSPN MODEL OF THE NEXT GENERATION TRAIN
CONTROL DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEM
The system reliability is mainly dependent on various com-
munication scenarios. The scenarios mainly includes the com-
munication interruption caused by connection loss and handoff.
Therefore, before constructing the DSPN model for the CBTC
data communication system, we need to first obtain the scenario
reliability which is dependent on interruption time caused by
connection loss or handoff. In this section, we first introduce the
concept of DSPN. Then, we depict the reliability model of two
communication scenarios (reconnection and handoff process)
using DSPN. With the communication scenario model results,
an integrated DSPN reliability model that described the next
generation CBTC data communication system is given at last.
A. Introduction to Deterministic and Stochastic Petri
Nets (DSPNs)
In 1962, Carl Adam Petri proposed the use of Petri nets to
simulate the communication system in his Ph.D. thesis “Au-
tomata Communication” [38]. After years of development, it is
not only a model tool, but also a theory with rich connotation.
A Petri net is a directed graph with two types of nodes called
places and transitions, which are represented by circles and
bars [38]. Arcs connect places to transitions, and are associated
with a non-negative integer, which is referred as weight. Places
present the system state variables, while transitions present the
actions that trigger system state variation. A place may contain
tokens that are represented by dots in the Petri net. A transition
is enabled if the number of tokens in each of its input places is
greater than the weight of its corresponding input arc.
In 1987, M. A. Marsan proposed an expanded Petri nets DSPN
[39]. DSPN has the advantages of parallelism, uncertainty, asyn-
chronous description and analysis capabilities. The delay of the
network transition can be constant or random variables with
exponential distribution, which is very suitable for the problem
expression in CBTC data communication systems. According
to the randomness and real-time requirements of the next gener-
ation CBTC data communication system, this paper uses DSPN
to model the system reliability.
B. DSPN Model of the Reconnection Scenario
The reliability of the communication link is closely related to
whether the communication connection is established. There-
fore, in this section, we build a reconnection DSPN model ac-
cording to the process of reconnection after connection loss. The
reconnection model is shown in Fig. 7. The tokens in the place
Normalsystem and NormalConnection represent the communi-
cation node on the train, and the transition stands for the incident
that train experiences. In this DSPN model, the dotted arc with
an arrow is a conditional arc., which the arc are triggered when
there is a token in the input place of the arrow. Normally, the
train is in normal operation place named NormalSystem. The
system will encounter a connection loss in a certain probabil-
ity. Then the token will be transited to reconnection prepara-
tion place Reconnection by firing transition ConnectionBurs.
ZHU et al.: RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF NEXT-GENERATION CBTC DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS 2029

reconnection delay is exponentially distributed with parameter

λt = 1/E(X) = 52.6315789, where E(X) is the delay expec-
tations of reconnection. All the DSPN model transition param-
eters are shown in Table I.

C. DSPN Model of the Handoff Scenario

The DSPN model of handoff is shown in Fig. 8. The token
in the place NormalSystem represents the train, and the token
in Normalhandoff represents the system. The places represent
the status of the train or system. Transitions represent events
experienced by the train. The default state of train is in normal
condition. At every interval time waitingTime, when the train
arrives at the switch triggering point SwitchPoint, the train is
transited to handoff execution state Timetohandoff via the trig-
Fig. 7. DSPN model of failure and reconnection recovery.
ger transition. In the handoff process, the system has a certain
probability of successful handoff and then returns to the normal
state NormalSystem. Otherwise, if the system encounters sud-
den deterioration caused by environmental factors, it will enter
After the reestablishment of the connection request is initiated,
the BadCondition state through the transition handofftimeout
the system has a certain probability within a period of time to
and immediately re-enters to Timetohandoff via handoffretry.
trigger the connect transition so that the token enters the state
Then, the system proceeds to the next handoff procedure at-
CSuccess which can presents connection establishment success,
tempt. When the train cannot handoff normally due to poor
and then the system reverts to the normal state NormalIystem
handoff conditions, the system status changes from the normal
after transition Ti1. Otherwise, if the system fails to establish
state Normalhandoff to HandoffFailure.
a connection within the specified time, the train will enter into
There are mainly two model parameters. The first parame-
the connection failure state CFailure through the transition fail.
ter is the transition parameter handoffprb. It means the time
At the same time, the connection failure makes the system con-
takes for tokens transition from place Timetohandoff to Hand-
nection flag change from a normal status NormalConnection to
offstart, which is converted from the test results of interruption
ConnectionFailure status, which is recorded as a failed connec-
time caused by handoff. The signal process analysis results indi-
tion. Subsequently, the system initiates the reconnection process
cates that the handoff fails only once when it happens. It means
via Ti2 for the next connection attempt. Therefore, the token in
the average probability that one successful handoff happens is
place ConnectionFailure directly represents the probability of
P rh = 1 − 1/2000 in unit time. When we set the unit time to be
system connection failure.
one second, and the probability that successful handoff happens
There are mainly two model parameters. The first parameter
is assumed to be exponentially distributed with CDF function
is the transition parameter connectionBurst. It is means the time
Ft (x) = 1 − e−xλt , the distribution parameter λt can be approx-
takes for tokens transition from place NormalSystem to Recon-
imately calculated as λt = P rh = 1.0005. 1/λt is the transition
nection, which is converted from the test of interruption time
parameter handoffprb, and it means the token will transition to
caused by connection loss. We record the LTE signal, and look
the next place with an average transition time of 1/λt .
up the signal process when the connection is lost. The signal pro-
The second parameter is the transition parameter handoffexe-
cess analysis result indicates that the connection loss happens
cution. It means the time takes for tokens transition from place
10 times when 105 packets are received in the test. It means the
Handoffstart to Normalsystem, which is converted from the test
average probability of connection loss P rl is 10−4 in unit time.
results of interruption time caused by handoff. According to
When we set the unit time to be one second, and the probability
the tested results shown, the average handoff delay is 62 ms.
of connection loss is assumed to be exponentially distributed
Assuming the reconnection interruption obeys the exponential
with CDF function Ft (x) = 1 − e−xλt , the distribution param-
distribution Ft (x) = 1 − e−xλt , the handoff delay is exponen-
eter λt can be approximately calculated as λt = P rl = 10−4 .
tially distributed with parameter λt = 1/E(X) = 16.09 , where
1/λt is the transition parameter connectionBurst, and it means
E(X) is the handoff delay expectations. All the DSPN model
the token will transition to the next place with an average tran-
transition parameters are shown in Table II.
sition time 1/λt .
The second parameter is the transition parameter connect. It
means the time takes for tokens transition from place Recon- D. DSPN Model of the Next Generation CBTC Data
nection to CSuccess, which is also converted from the test of Communication Systems
interruption time caused by connection loss. According to the We define the data communication reliability in next gen-
tested results shown in Fig. 4, the average delay of the system eration CBTC system as the probability when trains can suc-
reconnection is 19 ms. Assuming the reconnection interrup- cessfully receive the train state from the front train within time
tion obeys the exponential distribution Ft (x) = 1 − e−xλt , the window T . When the time between two consecutive received
2030
TABLE I
DESCRIPTION AND PARAMETERS OF TRANSITION IN THE RECONNECTION DSPN MODEL
TABLE II
DESCRIPTION AND PARAMETERS OF TRANSITION IN THE HANDOFF DSPN MODEL
Fig. 8. DSPN model of handoff procedure.
data packets is greater than time window T , the data communica-
tion system is considered to be unreliable. Given this definition,
we model the next generation CBTC DCS using DSPN model.
As we introduced in Subsection III-A, train to train commu-
nication and train to ground communication are both used in
next generation CBTC system. Therefore, we need to evaluate
the reliability of these two kind of communication link in this
subsection.
The DSPN model for the train to train communication link
is shown in Fig. 9. The system is in normal operation state
by default. The communication link between the Following-
Train and the Base Station 1 will encounter connection loss
or handoff with certain probability, so does the link between
the FrontTrain and the base station. Transition Tn1 means data
successfully received by base station without going through
handoff and connection loss, and the token goes to place
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VEHICULAR TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 68, NO. 3, MARCH 2019
Success_eNB1, Tn2 data goes through connection loss or hand-
off, and tokens go back to initial state before going through
place Failure_eNB1.
When the token goes to place Success_eNB1, Base
Station 1 state change from Idle_eNB1 to Busy_eNB1. When the
link between base station and the front train is normal, the token
represent data will go through normal transition process, and ar-
rived at place Success_ForwardTrain. Otherwise system will go
into place Failure_ForwardTrain, the token represent data will
go through transition Tn5 and goes back to the initial state, and
the front train state will change from place Null_FrontTrain to
DataReceived_FrontTrain.The front train will forward the data
through eNB2 after it receives data sent from the following train.
In the same way, the link between base station and the front train
can be normal or encounter connection loss or handoff, and the
tokens will go through different place transitions.
When the data is not transmitted between trains within the
stipulated time, the train to train communication link transitions
from NormalOperation to SystemFailure. Therefore, the prob-
ability that the tokens stays in place SystemFailure is system
reliability when train to train communication are considered.
We need to point out that the exponential distribution param-
eters of the transitions Tn1, Tn3, Tn5 and Tn7 are derived from
the two communication scenarios connection loss and handoff,
which is described in last two sections.
The train to ground communication link serve for the traffic
between train equipment and trackside equipment. The DSPN
reliability model for the train to ground communication link
is shown in Fig. 10. The token in the place Train represents
the communication data and the token in NormalTGOperation
represents the state of the system communication. During the
train-ground communication, trains will send data to the rele-
vant trackside controller TracksideController based on various
information collected on trains. The data will reaches the track-
side controller TracksideController with a certain probability,
and then the trackside controller will return ACK message to
Train immediately. If the trackside controller fails to respond the
ZHU et al.: RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF NEXT-GENERATION CBTC DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
Fig. 9. Train-train DSPN model of next generation train control data communication systems.
Fig. 10. Train-ground DSPN model of next generation train control data
communication systems.
message within a certain period of time, the failed state will be
reached. When there is a token in the Failure state, it indicates
that the communication between the train and ground commu-
nication fails, and the communication state changes from the
2031
normal state NormalTGOperation to the failed state TGOpera-
tionFailure.
E. DSPN Model Solutions
As shown in Figs. 7–10, the number of deterministic tran-
sitions for each marking is at most one in our DSPN models.
According to [40], if at most one deterministic transition is
allowed to be enabled in each marking, the marking-process
{Ξ(t), t > 0} is a Markov Regenerative Process (MRGP), and
the state probabilities of a DSPN can be obtained analytically
rather than by simulation. We take the DSPN model in Fig. 9 as
an example to prove it.
Let Ω be the set of all markings of the DSPN in Fig. 9. It
is also the state space of the marking process of the DSPN.
Consider a sequence {ρn , n > 0}, of epochs in the DSPN
model.
Suppose Ξ(ρn ) = m,
1) ρn +l will be defined only if a state change occurs at ρn .
Otherwise, we set ρn +l = ∞.
2) If a deterministic transition is enabled, define ρn +l to be
the time when the deterministic transition fires.
2032 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VEHICULAR TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 68, NO. 3, MARCH 2019

Given the definition of {ρn , n > 0}, and Λn = Ξ(ρn ).

{(Λn , ρn ), n ≥ 0} embedded in the marking process of DSPN
turns out to be a Markov renewal sequence, i.e.,
P {Λn +1 = j, ρn +1 − ρn ≤ t |
Λn = i, ρn , Λn −1 , ρn −1 , . . . , Λ0 , ρ0 }
= P {Λn +1 = j, ρn +1 − ρn ≤ t | Λn = i}
= P {Λ1 = j, ρ1 ≤ t | Λ0 = i}. (1)
As can be observed from Equation (1), with the his-
tory of {Ξ(u), 0 < u < ρn , Ξ(ρn ) = i}, the stochastic behav-
ior of {Ξ(ρn + t) > 0, t ≥ 0} is only dependent on Ξ(ρn ) = i.
Therefore,
{Ξ(ρn + t) > 0, t ≥ 0 | Ξ(u), 0 < u < ρn , Ξ(ρn ) = i}
Fig. 11. Train-to-train communication link reliability under different recon-
.
= {Ξ(ρn + t) > 0, t ≥ 0 | Ξ(ρn ) = i} nection interruption time.
.
= {Ξ(t) > 0, t ≥ 0 | Ξ(0) = i}, (2)
.
where = denotes equality in distribution. Equation (2) proves
that {Ξ(t), t > 0} is an Markov Regenerative Process.
Once we prove that the marking process under a DSPN is an
Markov Regenerative Process, the fraction of time the marking
process spends in state j, can be computed described in [40]. It
is also the steady state probability p = (pj ) of the MRGP that
we want to obtain.

V. NUMERICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

In order to analyze the reliability of next generation CBTC
data communication systems, we conduct the reliability analy-
sis using the parameters tested in the designed LTE based data
communication system in this section. We use π tool to conduct
the numerical computing. π tool is a Petri Net software devel-
oped by iQST (Institute for Quality, Safety and Transportation),
Brunswick University. π tool provides a streamlined interface
for creating comprehensive system models based on Petri nets.
It allows a visualized simulation (token game), an analysis of the
model and the identification of deadlocks, which are included
in the model.
Using the parameters tested in Subsection III-B, the reliability
of the train-to-train communication link and the train-to-ground
communication under different reconnection interruption time
are simulated, the results are shown in Figs. 11 and 12. As
shown in the figure, for the train-to-train communication link,
given time window T = 2 s, and average interruption time
20ms, the system reliability is greater than 99.995%. This
means for a train-to-train communication link, the probability
that one train can receive the information of other trains
within 2 s is greater than 99.995%. For the train-to-ground
communication link, given time window T = 2 s, and average
interruption time 20 ms, the system reliability is greater than
99.998%. This means for a train-to-ground communication
link, the probability that the trackside controller can receive the
information of trains within 2 s is greater than 99.998%. The
reliability of both train-to-train data communication link
and train-to-ground communication link decreases with the
increase of reconnection interruption time when the time
Fig. 12. Train-to-ground communication link reliability under different re-
connection interruption time.
window is fixed. This is because the system reliability is
highly dependent on communication interruption time. An
increase of interruption time will increase the probability that
one communication node successfully receive the correct data
packet from the other node within a certain period of time.
Meanwhile, when the reconnection interruption time is con-
stant, the reliability of both train-train communication system
and train-ground communication system increases when we
increase the time window value. This is because the system
probability is defined as the probability when one communi-
cation terminal can successfully receive information from the
other communication terminal within time window. When we
increase the time window value, this probability will increase
as well.
The reliability of the train-to-train communication and train-
to-ground communication link with different interval between
handoffs are presented in Figs. 13 and 14. The simulation re-
sults show that when the time window is fixed, the reliabil-
ity of both train-to-train communication and train-to-ground
communication link increases with the decrease of handoff oc-
currence frequency. This is because the system reliability is
highly dependent on the interruption time caused by handoff.
ZHU et al.: RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF NEXT-GENERATION CBTC DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
Fig. 13. Handoff occurrence frequency impacts on train-to-train communica-
tion link reliability.
Fig. 14. Handoff occurrence frequency impacts on train-to-grain communi-
cation link reliability.
When handoff happens in a lower frequency, the probability of
communication interruption will decrease, and it directly de-
crease the system reliability.
Similarly, when we fix the interval between handoffs, the
reliability of both train-train communication system and train-
ground communication system increases. This is because the
system probability is defined as the probability when one com-
munication terminal can successfully receive information from
the other communication terminal within the time window.
When we increase the time window value, this probability will
increase as well.
VI. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORKS
The existing CBTC data communication system are based
on train-to-ground communication, which suffer from too
2033
many subsystem interfaces and makes ground equipment
extremely complicated. With the adoption of train-to-train
communication, the next generation CBTC system can over-
come most of the problems in existing system without sac-
rifice system performance. There are few researches about the
data communication system reliability in next generation CBTC
system. In this paper, the next generation CBTC data commu-
nication system reliability was modeled with Deterministic and
stochastic Petri nets (DSPNs). We set up a laboratory test envi-
ronment to test the next generation CBTC data communication
system performance, and the performance data was converted as
DSPN model parameters to evaluate system reliability. With the
tested system performance measures, we analyzed the reliability
of data communication scenarios, which includes the reconnec-
tion and handoff scenarios. Extensive simulation results was
then conducted to illustrate the system reliability, which con-
siders both the train to train communication link and train to
ground communication link.
In the future, we are going to extend the DSPN model with
more train control function. The train control system reliability
measures will be integrated into DSPN model. Comparing the
DSPN model results with other reliability analysis tool will also
be one part of our future works.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regard-
ing the publication of this paper.
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